秦皇岛市50年气候变化与可持续发展战略研究

秦皇岛市50年来气候变暖变干，年平均气温提高2．3℃，≥10℃年积温增加11．4％，无霜期延长22天，但年平均降水量却减少12．6％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利，对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害，加强水资源的开源节流，发展节水经济和循环经济，发展休闲度假旅游，延长旺季。     

秦皇岛市气候变化对河流径流的影响及对策

50年来秦皇岛市气候明显变暖，多年平均气温上升约2℃；同时变干，降水减少18．3％，进而使河流径流也明显减少，其幅度超过30％。河流径流减少给生态系统带来广泛复杂的影响，也给农业、工业、城乡建设带来威胁，因此必须尽快采取发展节水技术、污水治理循环利用、海水淡化等措施。     

秦皇岛市气候变化对农业气象灾害的影响

40多年来秦皇岛市气候发生了明显的变化，致使农业气象灾害增加：第一，冬暖、倒春寒、春末高温等灾害频次增多，冬季低温冻害频次和程度减少；第二，冬旱、春旱、秋旱、秋冬连旱、冬春连旱增多，伏旱次数明显减少，盛夏洪涝频次减少；第三，低温连阴雨、高温干旱、干热风等灾害在频次和程度上均发生明显变化。因此，秦皇岛农业生产防灾减灾的重点和方法也适当调整。     

秦皇岛市农业生态变化与可持续发展

秦皇岛市农业生态条件较好,对农业生产有利,但也有耕地少、降水不均匀等不利因素。森林植被的变化对农业生态产生复杂影响,因此必须保护和发展森林。气候条件向干热变化对农业生产弊大于利。建设水库对农业生态变化也比较复杂,应注意兴利除弊。对农业生态应采取各种对策措施加以保护。     

气候变化对中国旅游业持续发展的影响及应对措施

气候变化已不同程度地威胁到中国旅游业持续发展所依赖的主要生态系统,使旅游业遭受到巨大的经济损失,并且使旅游业面临着改变其产品和形象的威胁,可能进一步加剧旅游业与自然保护之间的冲突、凸显社会公平问题。尽管中国现行立法已为保障旅游业持续发展提供了相应的制度支撑,但远不足以应对气候变化对中国旅游业持续发展带来的严峻挑战。当前迫切需要开展旅游业的可持续管理与教育、培育旅游市场和发展循环经济等联合行动。     

海南州气候变化对生态环境的影响及对策研究

文章针对青海省海南州气象灾害频繁发生、草场退化、土地荒漠化、湖泊水位下降和河流流量减少等生态环境退化现象日益严重的实际，在广泛收集和整理气候、水资源、草地资源等生态环境因子资料的基础上，对海南州的主要气候要素、地表径流、水资源、植被的演替及其相互间的关系等主要生态环境变化特征进行了分析，为海南州经济社会协调发展提供了科学依据。     

秦皇岛市滨海旅游资源退化评价及可持续发展保护对策

本文阐述了秦皇岛市滨海旅资源游特征以及它的退化现状,运用影子工程法对其进行了退化评价,并提出了可持续发展保护对策.     

秦皇岛市海洋经济可持续发展研究

改革开放以来,秦皇岛市海洋经济快速发展,已初步形成多种产业和相对完整的海洋经济体系。然而也面临着海洋生态环境遭到破坏、海洋产业结构不合理、海洋科技发展水平较低等问题,这都制约了秦皇岛市海洋经济的可持续发展。为了实现秦皇岛市海洋经济的可持续发展,提出了加强海洋生态环境保护与建设、优化海洋经济产业结构、实施科技兴海战略等对策和建议。     

气候变化对我国农业环境的影响及对策

全球气候变暖的速度在加快,气象规律将逐步改变,气候变化对我国农业的影响以负面为主。本文从大气、土壤、水和生物等方面分析了气候变暖对农业环境的影响,并提出了一些我国农业适应气候变化的对策。     

秦皇岛市人口可持续发展问题与对策研究

秦皇岛市2004年总人口为278．26万人，自然增长率为3．78‰，符合计划生育率为98．27％，但出生性别比为109％，2001年全市居民平均期望寿命为75．64岁；2000年全市老龄人口占11．4％，2005年将达到12．95%；2000年全市城镇化比率为41．7％，初中入学率达到99．59％。为实施可持续发展战略，需进一步加强计划生育工作，严格控制出生性别比，进一步提高城镇化水平和教育水平，关注老龄化问题。     

秦皇岛市环境噪声变化趋势分析与防治对策

以秦皇岛市2001-2010年的噪声监测资料为依据,通过对环境噪声变化趋势的分析,发现秦皇岛市环境噪声源主要为社会生活噪声、交通噪声、工业噪声,并提出了相关防治对策。     

Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

气候变化视角下的污染场地绿色可持续修复新方向

全球气候变化背景下,绿色可持续修复已成为修复领域的必然趋势。极端天气频发和水文条件改变等气候变化会影响污染场地修复工程实施和修复技术适用性等,绿色可持续修复亟待进一步发展和完善。弹性修复是在绿色可持续修复的基础上,进一步应对和适应气候变化的新兴修复方向。英美等发达国家已经初步发展了弹性修复的理论和实践,本文通过探究污染场地修复与气候变化的交互作用,借鉴发达国家的相关经验和实践案例,为我国污染场地绿色可持续修复适应气候变化提出发展建议。     

Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City,China

Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.     

The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.     

Climate Convention Implementation: An Opportunity for the Pacific Island Nations to Move Toward Sustainable Energy Systems

This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

The Importance of Contexts in Strategies of Environmental Organizations with Regard to Climate Change

2 problem, which brought the issue into the energy debate, as well as the more general definition of the problem in the late 1980s as a greenhouse problem, were very important for determining the strategies of the organizations. It can be concluded that strategies of Dutch environmental organizations with regard to climate change were strongly dependent on the context.