A LINEAR ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

The use of linear programming as a planning tool for determining the optimal long-range development of an urban water supply system was explored. A stochastic trace of water demand was synthesized and used as an input to the model. This permitted evaluating the feasibility of imposing demand restrictions as an effective cost reduction mechanism. The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, was used as the urban model. The fundamental problem was to allocate limited water supplies from several sources to an urban load center to minimize costs and comply with system constraints. The study period covered twenty years, and findings indicate the planning direction for stage development during this period. Sensitivity analyses were performed on cost coefficients and demands. Thirteen sources were included in the initial computations. Conclusions were that linear programming and generated demand traces are useful tools for both short- and long-term urban water supply planning. Lowering peak demands results in long-range development of fewer sources of supply and more economic and efficient use of the supplies developed.     

Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.     

PEAKING STORAGE TANKS FOR WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Construction of a “peaking storage tank” may reduce the operational cost of municipal water in the availability of a time-of-use energy rate. A peaking storage tank is used for storing water that is pumped from wells or other sources of supply during off-peak periods when energy costs are less for use during periods of on-peak water demand. The optimal size of a peaking storage tank is that which results in the minimum total cost, which includes both the storage construction cost and the cost of operation of the pumps. The operational cost for a given time-of-use rate is determined by help of a pipe network simulation model solved by the Newton-Raphson technique and a dynamic programming optimization model. A more simplified method is also introduced. Analyses show that low off-peak energy costs make the construction of peaking storage tanks economically attractive and reduce on-peak energy use, which results in electrical load leveling.     

OPTIMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND CROP PLANNING UNDER DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC INFLOWS1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

External cost internalisation of urban transport: a case study of Dublin

Transport users do not currently pay all costs associated with their transport activities and in particular do not pay the costs they impose on the environment. Case studies on Dublin, Amsterdam, Brussels and London have been conducted to evaluate how best to meet the requirement of the European Commission in its fair and efficient pricing aims in the transport sector, i.e. where transport users are made to pay all costs they impose. The paper presents the results of Do Nothing (DN) and Do Something (DS) scenarios for 2005 where in the latter case each transport user pays for all costs they impose including pollution, noise, accidents etc. The Dublin results, from an economics model used in the study, are examined in detail; the findings are compared with those of parallel studies conducted in the other cities to demonstrate the international relevance of this work. The comparison between the DN and DS scenarios indicates that taxes on all transport modes should be increased substantially, particularly in the morning and evening peak periods. As a result of the price increases, travel demand is reduced. A practical example where transport users could be made to pay for all their costs is road use pricing, i.e. charging individuals for the use of road space. The taxation levels suggested in the DS scenario have been used in a road use pricing trial in Dublin, the results of which were published in O'Mahony, Geraghty and Humphreys (Transportation 27, 269-283, 2000), to see if the reductions in the travel requirements of individuals proposed by the economics model are in fact true. The principles of the work presented in this paper are not only relevant to environmental impact management in the transport sector but can also be applied to other sectors.     

THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

THE NATURE OF LONG RUN COST SAVINGS DUE TO WATER CONSERVATION1

Savings in capital, operation, and maintenance costs of new water supply facilities are referred to as “long run foregone costs.” Any conservation measure leads to reduction of water use or loss, however, significant long run foregone costs are realized only when reductions in size or delays in construction of facilities result. In order to accurately evaluate these costs it is necessary to know which facilities are affected and how they are affected (i.e., eliminated, downsized, or delayed). The effects of several levels of conservation on long run fore gone costs for an actual study are presented and some easy to use equations that may be used to calculate such savings are then derived. Some rules are presented to determine if it is more economical to delay construction or downsize facilities.     

不确定条件下矿产资源的最优开采

通过一个连续时间的随机动态规划模型,探讨了市场需求、资源存量的不确定性以及勘探活动对矿产资源价格和开采速度的影响,并给出了随机条件下Hotelling法则的表达形式.模型结果显示:不确定性对资源价格变化速度的影响主要取决于开采成本,如果相对于资源存量来说开采成本是不变的或者开采的规模成本是不变的,则不确定性对资源价格的变化速度没有影响.反之,如果开采的规模成本是递增的,则不确定性会加速资源价格的变化.此外,不确定性的存在将加快资源的开采速度.至于勘探活动,它一方面降低了地质条件的不确定性,另一方面增加了资源的存量,所以勘探活动降低了资源价格和开采速度的变化率,减少了不确定性对资源开采的影响.     

Can market-based policies accomplish the optimal floodplain management? A gap between static and dynamic models

The purpose of this short article is to set static and dynamic models for optimal floodplain management and to compare policy implications from the models. River floodplains are important multiple resources in that they provide various ecosystem services. It is fundamentally significant to consider environmental externalities that accrue from ecosystem services of natural floodplains. There is an interesting gap between static and dynamic models about policy implications for floodplain management, although they are based on the same assumptions. Essentially, we can derive the same optimal conditions, which imply that the marginal benefits must equal the sum of the marginal costs and the social external costs related to ecosystem services. Thus, we have to internalise the external costs by market-based policies. In this respect, market-based policies seem to be effective in a static model. However, they are not sufficient in the context of a dynamic model because the optimal steady state turns out to be unstable. Based on a dynamic model, we need more coercive regulation policies.     

Incentive pricing and cost recovery at the basin scale

Incentive pricing programs have potential to promote economically efficient water use patterns and provide a revenue source to compensate for environmental damages. However, incentive pricing may impose disproportionate costs and aggravate poverty where high prices are levied for basic human needs. This paper presents an analysis of a two-tiered water pricing system that sets a low price for subsistence needs, while charging a price equal to marginal cost, including environmental cost, for discretionary uses. This pricing arrangement can promote efficient and sustainable water use patterns, goals set by the European Water Framework Directive, while meeting subsistence needs of poor households. Using data from the Rio Grande Basin of North America, a dynamic nonlinear program, maximizes the basin's total net economic and environmental benefits subject to several hydrological and institutional constraints. Supply costs, environmental costs, and resource costs are integrated in a model of a river basin's hydrology, economics, and institutions. Three programs are compared: (1) Law of the River, in which water allocations and prices are determined by rules governing water transfers; (2) marginal cost pricing, in which households pay the full marginal cost of supplying treated water; (3) two-tiered pricing, in which households' subsistence water needs are priced cheaply, while discretionary uses are priced at efficient levels. Compared to the Law of the River and marginal cost pricing, two-tiered pricing performs well for efficiency and adequately for sustainability and equity. Findings provide a general framework for formulating water pricing programs that promote economically and environmentally efficient water use programs while also addressing other policy goals.     

Private and Social Costs of Surface Mine Reforestation Performance Criteria

We study the potentially unnecessary costs imposed by strict performance standards for forest restoration of surface coal mines in the Appalachian region under the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (SMCRA) that can vary widely across states. Both the unnecessary private costs to the mine operator and costs to society (social costs) are reported for two performance standards, a ground cover requirement, and a seedling survival target. These standards are examined using numerical analyses under a range of site productivity class and market conditions. We show that a strict (90%) ground cover standard may produce an unnecessary private cost of more than 700/ha and a social cost ranging from700/ha and a social cost ranging from 428/ha to 710/ha, as compared with a 70 standard, may produce an unnecessary private cost of approximately710/ha, as compared with a 70% standard. A strict tree survival standard of 1235 trees/ha, as compared with the more typical 1087 trees/ha standard, may produce an unnecessary private cost of approximately 200/ha, and a social cost in the range of 120 to120 to 208/ha. We conclude that strict performance standards may impose substantial unnecessary private costs and social costs, that strict performance standards may be discouraging the choice of forestry as a post-mining land use, and that opportunities exist for reform of reforestation performance standards. Our study provides a basis for evaluating tradeoffs between regulatory efficiency and optimal reforestation effort.     

The US freshwater supply shortage: Experiences with desalination as part of the solution

Parts of the USA are facing impending shortages of freshwater. One proposed solution is the construction of desalination plants to turn seawater into freshwater. Although seawater desalination plants are widely used in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, there are few desalination plants in the USA. In 2003, Tampa Bay Water built the largest desalination plant in North America. Persistent operating problems and escalating costs have caused the utility to re-evaluate its reliance on the seawater desalination plant as part of a long-term regional water supply strategy. In addition, environmental effects of the plant are uncertain. Advances in reverse osmosis technology have significantly reduced desalination costs. However, desalination of seawater is still more expensive than other freshwater supply sources and demand management measures. With time and research, seawater desalination may prove to be a sustainable, cost-effective source of new freshwater supplies, especially if plants are coupled with renewable energy sources. Until then, the development of small-scale groundwater desalination plants, the re-use of water, water conservation, and a more efficient allocation of water through higher prices and rising block rates will be important strategies in meeting growing water demand. Moreover, it is important to improve the coordination between water supply planning and land use planning as populations continue to increase.     

Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary perspective

Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature documenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques. The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of 27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of decision-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.     

SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING OF NATURAL RESOURCES: SOME ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED

Satellite remote sensing has emerged as a tool which is highly appropriate to the development process. Its applications already are numerous, ranging from the monitoring of catastrophic or geophysical phenomena at the global scale to the delineation of local mineral resources. The author reviews the conditions under which these applications are taking place and outlines the major issues and problems which will have to be resolved if the maximum benefit is to be derived from satellite remote sensing. He also examines the current and future role of an international infrastructure within which the debate on management may be continued and the specific applications be made more effective.     

DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM CONJUNCTIVE USE1

The Las Vegas, Nevada area like most semi-arid basins, was developed through exploitation of available ground-water resources. Area growth in this large valley has occurred in a scattered and sporadic manner with development both in incorporated areas and within the County. As a result, today there exist five major water suppliers which are: a water district, three municipalities, and a large corporation, in addition to numerous small water companies and thousands of domestic wells. In the past 20 years the area has grown from a population of less than 50,000 to over 300,000 today. The bulk of the water demand for this growth has been met from the ground-water resource and as a result the basin is being severely mined. Current extractions are over three times the estimated annual replenishment. Rapidly declining water levels are increasing the costs of water and are creating water shortages during periods of peak demand. To meet both the current and anticipated water demands, the Southern Nevada Water Supply Project is being constructed to import additional water from nearby Lake Mead. Agriculture in the area is very limited, and primarily uses reclaimed waste water for irrigation. The chief water demands in the area are thus municipal and industrial, with the former predominating. This study was designed to determine how best the Las Vegas Valley Water District, supplier of 80 percent of the domestic water, might integrate the use of the existing ground water and anticipated imported surface water. Additionally the consequences of application of certain provisions in the Nevada Water Law were examined to determine their effects on the ground-water system and costs of water. To achieve these objectives, a dynamic programming technique was utilized. The problem as formulated consists of a single decision variable, single state variable dynamic programming algorithm evaluated over a fifty-year planning horizon at monthly intervals. Three alternative solutions, with different ground-water law constraints are evaluated. In all solutions certain basic operating rules regarding ground-water pumping distribution and use of surface-water systems are kept constant. The problem is considered as deterministic in all respects. Recharge to ground water is assumed to equal the estimated average annual replenishment evenly distributed over the year and additionally is not considered to be a function of average basin ground water potential. The only surface supply, Lake Mead, is considered to operate at near constant elevation and not be subject to shortage conditions. In light of the size of Lake Mead, the Colorado River flow and the size of Nevada's allotment, 300,000 ac ft, the latter assumption is reasonable. Demand for water is considered as a known function of time. Optimization of conjunctive use for the Water District is based on the objective function of minimizing water production costs. Costs of distributing water are considered to be constant regardless of source, and so are not included. Also, fixed costs of amortizing the pipeline project and well fields are not considered. Results of the study are presented as a series of policy traces under each of the three alternatives considered. These traces describe the ground-water basin response under optimal operating conditions, given an estimate as to the present worth of ground-water pumping rights, and prescribe monthly water-procurement schedules for the operation of the Water District.     

Two-stage vertex analysis method for planning electric power systems with greenhouse gas abatement consideration

This study presents a two-stage vertex analysis (TSVA) method for the planning of electric power systems (EPS) under uncertainty. TSVA has advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, TSVA can incorporate greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement policies directly into its optimization process, and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions directly into its modeling formulation and solution procedure. The TSVA method is applied to a case study of planning EPS and it is demonstrated how the TSVA efficiently identify optimal electricity-generation schemes that could help to minimize system cost under different GHG-abatement considerations. Different combinative considerations on the uncertain inputs lead to varied system costs and GHG emissions. Results reveal that the total electricity supply will rise up along with the time period due to the increasing demand and, at the same time, more non-fossil fuels should be used to satisfy the increasing requirement for GHG mitigation. Moreover, uncertainties in connection with complexities in terms of information quality (e.g., capacity, efficiency, and demand) result in changed electricity-generation patterns, GHG-abatement amounts, as well as system costs. Minimax regret (MMR) analysis technique is employed to identify desired alternative that reflects compromises between system cost and system-failure risk.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

Economics and GHG emission reduction of a PLA bio-refinery system—Combining bottom-up analysis with price elasticity effects

This paper analyses energy savings, GHG emission reductions and costs of bio-refinery systems for polylactic acid (PLA) production. The systems comprise ‘multi-functional’ uses of biomass resources, i.e. use of agricultural residues for energy consumption, use of by-products, and recycling and waste-to-energy recovery of materials. We evaluate the performance of these systems per kg of bio-based polymer produced and per ha of biomass production. The evaluation is done using data of Poland assuming that biomass and PLA production is embedded in a European energy and material market. First, the performance of different bio-refinery systems is investigated by means of a bottom-up chain analysis. Second, an analysis is applied that derives market prices of products and land depending on the own-price elasticity of demand. Thus, the costs of bio-refinery systems depending on the demand of land and material are determined. It is found that all PLA bio-refinery systems considered lead to net savings of non-renewable energy consumption of 70–220 GJ/(ha yr) and net GHG emission reductions of 3–17 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr). Most of these PLA bio-refinery systems lead to net costs for the overall system of up to 4600 €/(ha yr). PLA production from short rotation wood leads to net benefits of about 1100 €/(ha yr) if a high amount of a high value product, i.e. fibres, is produced. Multi-functionality is necessary to ensure the viability of PLA bio-refinery systems from biomass with regard to energy savings and GHG emission reduction. However, the multi-functional use of biomass does not contribute much to overall incomes. Multifunctional biomass use – especially the use of biomass residues for energy consumption – contributes significantly to savings of non-renewable energy sources. Own-price elasticity of the demand for materials influences the overall costs of the bio-refinery system strongly. The own-price elasticity of land demand markets could become important if bio-refineries are introduced on a large scale.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.