Coal-based transformation of cities in Shandong Province,China

This article primarily discusses the issue of realizing sustainable development in Shandong Province, China through transformation. It compares the global energy structure to China’s, as well as among regions and provinces within China. The article takes six cities in Shandong Province as typical objectives, and then using principal component analysis it calculates their flexibility in regard to city shift and restructuring. The main purpose was to quantify the impact of economic activities triggered by the coal industry, a.k.a the energy economic nexus, and to assess the flexibility and sustainability in transformation among the observed coal-based cities.     

Adaptation in a multi-stressor environment: perceptions and responses to climatic and economic risks by coffee growers in Mesoamerica

While climate change adaptation policy has tended to focus on planned adaptation interventions, in many vulnerable communities, adaptation will consist of autonomous, “unplanned” actions by individuals who are responding to multiple simultaneous sources of change. Their actions are likely not only to affect their own future vulnerability, but, through changes in livelihoods and resource use, the vulnerability of their community and resource base. In this paper, we document the autonomous changes to livelihood strategies adopted by smallholder coffee farmers in four Mesoamerican countries (Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica). Our aim is to gain insight into the process of autonomous adaptation by proxy: through an assessment of how farmers explain their choices in relation to distinct stressors; and an understanding of the set of choices available to farmers. We find that climatic stress is a feature in decision making, but not the dominant driver. Nevertheless, the farmers in our sample are evidently flexible, adaptive, and experimental in relation to changing circumstances. Whether their autonomous responses to diverse stressors will result in a reduction in risk over time may well depend on the extent to which policy, agricultural research, and rural investments build on the inherent logic of these strategies.     

Estimation on wetland loss and its restoration potential in Modern Yellow River Delta,Shandong Province of China

Wetland is one of the most important ecosystems with varied functions and structures, and its loss has been a major issue. Wetland loss in Modern Yellow River Delta (MYRD) becomes a serious environmental problem, so its restoration attracts a great deal of attention from academia and governments. This article proposes a GIS-based multi-criteria comprehensive evaluation methodology for potential estimation of wetland restoration, using MYRD as an example. The model uses four kinds of data (hydrology, terrain, soil, and land use) and could be adapted by planners for use in identifying the suitability of locations as wetland mitigation sites at any site or region. In the application of the model in the MYRD, the research developed a lost wetland distributed map taking the better wetland situation of 1995 as the reference, and elevated the overall distribution trends of wetland restoration potential based on wetland polygon. The results indicated that the total area of wetland loss from 1995 to 2014 was 568.12 km², which includes 188.83 km² natural wetland and 21.80 km² artificial wetland, respectively. The areas of lost wetland with low, middle, and high resilience ability are 126.82 km², 259.92 km², and 119.59 km², occupying 25.05%, 51.33%, and 23.62%, respectively. The high-restoration-potential wetland included 98.47 km² of natural wetland and 21.12 km² of artificial wetland, which are mainly bush, reed, and ponds. The high-restoration-potential wetland is mainly distributed in the vicinity of Gudong oil field, the Yellow River Delta protected areas, and the eastern sides of Kenli county and Dongying city.     

山东省水资源利用研究

山东省水资源可利用形势严峻,2002-2008年水资源总量已不能满足全省总的供水需求量。预测2020年山东省的水用水需求量为256亿m3,已经超过了全省水资源总量的数值,处于弱不可持续状态。     

生态景观质量的游客感知及支付意愿评价——以福友休闲农场为例

在近年来国内休闲农业快速发展的背景下,由于缺乏对其非使用价值的正确认识和判断,出现了高速增长与效果欠佳的矛盾,如何科学评价休闲农场开发的非使用价值,对于该产业发展具有重要意义。条件价值评估方法(CVM)是国内外评估非使用价值和支付意愿较为成熟的方法,但尚未用于对具有"三产融合"和"三生一体"特性的休闲农场的评估,本研究以福建开发较为成熟的长泰福友休闲农场为研究取样点,采用该方法探究游客对休闲农场生态景观质量的感知水平及支付意愿。结果表明:游客对福友休闲农场生态保护价值支付意愿的下限为18.26元,支付上限为23.10元,游客对福友休闲农场生态景观保护的支付意愿为96.45万元/年;提供便捷的支付渠道和公开资金的使用途径能有效提升游客购买生态景观保护价值的支付意愿;农场空气的好坏、农场的生态体验设计、农场的田园功能分区在主题设计、耕作体验形式、内容等方面的创新程度对游客生态保护的支付意愿影响较大;对于大部分拥有一定农场阅历但对农业多功能性认识不足的游客,在便捷的支付手段和珍稀植物品种的吸引下,更倾向于形成较低水平的生态保护价值支付意愿,而那些文化素质较高,特别是拥有农场、生态相关领域研究背景,对于农场生态功能性、体验养生内容拥有一定认知的游客,则愿意在更高的价格水平支付农场的生态保护价值。     

Role of climate risks and socio-economic factors in influencing the impact of climatic extremes: a normalisation study in the context of Odisha,India

Economic costs imposed by climatic extremes have been increasing over the years and are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming years as well. Such costs are incurred due to two factors: (1) natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change and (2) exposure and vulnerability of socio-economic factors. The impact of these factors as identified separately through a ‘normalisation technique’ is analysed in the existing normalisation studies conducted mostly in developed country contexts; these have produced mixed results. However, one needs to enquire about the influence of the above two factors in a developing country context where the anticipated impacts of climate extremes are significant. This study, therefore, makes an attempt to adjust impact data, in terms of the reported population affected and economic damages of three extreme events, namely cyclones, floods and droughts, together for societal changes between 1972 and 2009 in Odisha in eastern India. Further, the second component is analysed in two ways: (1) assuming that exposed socio-economic factors are equally vulnerable similar to the other normalisation studies, i.e. no adaptation and (2) incorporating adaptation in the existing normalisation methods—which has attracted less attention so far in the literature. The results suggest that: (a) both the natural climate variability and the socio-economic factors influence the increasing damages in the recent decades, and (b) when adaptation is introduced in the normalisation model, economic losses have reduced significantly compared to the estimates using the existing normalisation models.     

Conversion Margins for the Major Uses of Agricultural Land and Their Variations in Shandong Province, China

It is of practical significance for the decision-making on country food security and farmland protection to analyze the conversion margins for the major uses of agricultural land and their variations. Based on the panel data of wheat, corn, vegetable, fruit, and forests productions from 520 investigated farmer households of 13 investigated villages in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2009, and using Cobb-Douglas production function, the revenue conversion margins can be obtained separately, between different grain-crops (wheat, corn) and different non-grain crops (vegetable, fruit, forests), and the conversion relationship between growing grain( wheat, corn) and going out for non-farm work. The results show that from 2003 to 2009, growing wheat and corn are more economically and reasonably for farmers, compared with growing vegetable, but growing wheat and corn are becoming less economically and less reasonably day by day, compared with planting forests. Moreover, the conversion margin between wheat and fruit shows obvious scissors difference. Just from 2007, farmers’ growing fruit became economically and reasonably, but until 2009, compared with going out to work after abandoning farm8land, growing wheat had no economic rationality. From 2003 to 2009, farmers’ growing corn is more profitable than growing fruit and going out for non-farm work after abandoning farmland. The subsidies for wheat and corn have increased farmers’ comparative income from food production remarkably, but the subsidies cannot change the general tendency that farmers transform food (wheat, corn) production into non-food (especially forests) production. The revenue difference between growing wheat, corn and vegetable and growing fruit and forests is being pulled ceaselessly bigger, and the tendency that farmers transform wheat, corn and vegetable growing lands into fruit and forests growing lands has become increasingly apparent.     

Environmental perception during rapid population growth and urbanization: a case study of Dhaka city

Dhaka city in Bangladesh has been passing through a hasty process of urbanization and population growth since the last few decades. Rapid growth of population, unplanned urbanization and industrialization in the periphery has generated pressure to the changes in land use pattern, which has also caused huge urban expansion. This expansion process is engulfing cultivated land, vegetation, wetlands and water bodies without considering their environmental impacts. This study argues that these changes and their scale of environmental impacts or sufferings are not equally distributed among the dwellers in Dhaka city. It seeks to explore variations of environmental qualities on the basis of people’s perceptions. The study finds that the dwellers in the city perceive their neighborhood environment differently, which may affect environmental qualities of the area and their sustainable management as well. Therefore, it is imperative to consider spatial variations and inequalities of environmental opportunities or sufferings in urban planning of Dhaka city.     

山东省农业循环经济发展评价

为了加快农业循环经济发展,首先要对发展状态进行评估。该文以循环经济理论为依据,探索建立表征农业循环经济发展程度的指标体系,并以山东省17市为例,进行主成分分析,评价山东省各市农业循环经济发展程度,找出各地农业循环经济发展过程中存在的差距,为推动区域农业循环经济发展提供理论支持。研究发现各地区农业循环经济发展程度与区域总体发展水平并不一致,一些经济发达地区忽视农业资源的节约利用导致农业循环经济发展水平不高。为加快出东省农业循环经济发展,建议通过推进农业产业化,节约资源投入;大力推广农业清洁生产;合理规划和确立农业循环经济发展模式。     

Spatial differentiation of comprehensive suitability of urban human settlements based on GIS: a case study of Liaoning Province,China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The comprehensive suitability of regional human settlements is of great significance to the development and spatial distribution of regional human...     

陕西安康移民搬迁农户的生计适应策略与适应力感知

从社会-生态系统适应性理论出发,借鉴脆弱性研究中的适应性理论来研究我国易地移民搬迁农户的适应策略和适应力,构建了移民搬迁农户的生计适应性分析框架,并以陕西安康移民搬迁工程为例,通过实地调查和访谈获取了安康搬迁农户的调查数据,分析了安康移民搬迁农户的生计适应策略、适应力感知及其影响因素。分析发现安康移民搬迁农户在搬迁之后采用了四种生计适应策略,即传统生计专业化型、非农专业化、补贴依赖型和多样化生计,这四种类型占全部搬迁农户样本的比例分别为:28.6%、34.3%、18.3%和18.8%。搬迁农户的适应力感知类型与搬迁类型、安置类型存在着统计上的显著差异。尤其是搬迁农户收入等级类型与适应力感知之间存在显著差异,越是高收入户,越表示收入增加,搬迁后"稳得住、能致富"的情况则越好;而贫困户搬迁之后的生计适应、生计安全状况令人担忧。此外,搬迁农户不同的生计适应策略与其适应力感知也存在着统计上的显著差异。总体上看,搬迁之后,非农专业化和传统生计专业化的农户收入减少的更少、表示收入增加的更多、适应力更好,而补贴依赖型、生计多样化型农户的适应状况要差一些。本文进一步采用MULTINOMINAL LOGISTICS回归模型分析了安康移民搬迁农户适应力感知的影响因素。结果显示,政府主导的移民安置方式、搬迁类型、搬迁农户所获得的扶贫项目数对搬迁农户生计适应情况并没有显著的影响,搬迁农户也没有随着搬迁时间的增加而提高其适应力;当地搬迁农户劳动力也存在一些闲置、土地林地需要进一步提高生产经营效率等。当地地方政府仍需要进一步完善移民搬迁方案和对移民搬迁农户的精准帮扶措施,发展后续产业,提高其适应力。     

山东省城市化和能源消耗的关系研究

通过建立向量自回归模型,运用格兰杰因果分析方法和协整分析方法对于山东省城市化和能源消耗量之间的长短期关系进行了实证分析,并利用因素分解模型对城市化所引起的能源消耗变动的贡献份额进行了定量测算。实证结果表明,山东省城市化水平提高是导致能源消费量增长的格兰杰因果原因,而山东省能源消费增长却不是城市化水平提高的格兰杰因果原因,二者之间存在单向的格兰杰因果联系。山东省城市化和能源消耗量之间不仅存在着单向的格兰杰因果联系,并且存在着协整关系,但是这种长期动态均衡的短期误差修正作用并不很强,能源消耗量的增长率变动除了受城市化水平影响之外,还同时受到其他多种因素的影响;现阶段城市化因素对山东省能源消费总量的贡献份额尚比较小,且有逐年下降的趋势。因此,能源需求不会成为制约山东省城市化进程的瓶颈,目前应该加快推进有助于资源节约型的城市化进程模式。     

山东省能源消费与碳排放分析

利用山东省统计年鉴数据和联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)公布的碳排放计算公式和碳排放系数,对山东省2001-2010年的能源消费和碳排放情况进行分析。结果表明:山东省一次能源消费由2001年的11 649.88万t标准煤增长到2010年36 357.25万t标准煤,年均增长12.05%;碳排放量由2001年12 308.17万t增长到2010年30 881.45万t,年均增长9.64%,由煤炭引起的碳排放量占73.09%;碳排放强度呈下降趋势,由2001年的1.21 t/万元下降到2010年0.78 t/万元,年均下降4.23%。针对山东省能源消费与碳排放现状,提出了相关建议。应大力发展低碳经济,改变高耗能的发展方式,积极促进山东省产业结构调整和升级,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

Sediment and carbon accumulation in a small tidal basin: Yuehu,Shandong Peninsula,China

A small sedimentary basin (the Yuehu lagoon), located at the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula, China, was selected to study its filling by sediment and the vertical flux of particulate organic carbon in response to natural/anthropogenic processes. Surficial and short core sediment samples were collected and analyzed to obtain data sets of grain size, organic carbon content, deposition rates and vertical fluxes of sediment and organic carbon. The analytical results show that the lagoon is covered mainly with fine-grained sediments with high deposition rate and particulate organic carbon content being found from the central part of the mud deposit. The sediment balance of the lagoon indicates high denudation rates of the catchment basin, which may be related to soil erosion in response to farming and land use pattern changes. Furthermore, preliminary analysis of the organic carbon fluxes of the Yuehu lagoon and other embayments of the region shows that these coastal systems make an important contribution to the regional shallow sea carbon burial.     

人口年龄结构对区域经济增长的影响研究

经济增长和人口年龄结构通过人力资源和人的各种需求而联系起来.通过推导出含有年龄结构系数M的区域经济增长理论模型,将教育人力资本和干中学经验资本及就业效应共同体现在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数中.以山东省140个县域单元为样本进行实证分析,通过构建空间经济计量模型,研究发现:①增加人口年龄结构变量和考虑空间效应,可以显著提高模型的拟合优度,在现实中应重视年龄结构和空间溢出对县域经济增长的作用;②所有劳动适龄组均刺激经济增长,但以15-29岁年龄组的影响最显著;③除存在较强的空间集聚和空间依赖性,山东省区域经济增长显现出条件β-收敛;短期看人口增长和储蓄率对县域经济增长的作用显著为负;④鼓励30-44岁劳动力提高干中学经验效应以促进区域经济运行和缓解人口老龄化的不利影响.     

Study on Dynamic Mechanism of Urban Expansion： A Case Study of Shandong Province

This paper aims at studying the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and its role. Based on the economic model of urban spatial structure and applying panel data in Shandong Province, the paper concludes. Economic growth and transition of economic structure have played the most powerful role in urban expansion. An increase in population helps the core to extend. Increasing agricultural productivity can provide a countervailing force. An increase in transportation costs will limit urban expansion. An increase in the marginal productivity of land in housing production will increase urban expansion. Fiscal and taxation policies also have encouraged the extensive shift of cultivated land into build-up area. This paper also suggests that if high rate increasing GDP is needed, the urban core will continue to expand. The government should take measures to improve the rapid growth of the city.     

Multiple Effects of Energy Issues and Countermeasures： A Case of Shandong Province

Energy is now becoming the bottleneck of urban and regional development. The paper takes Shandong Province, one of the most energy consuming provinces in China, as an example, uses quantity methods such as SPSS （Stastics Package for Social Science） cluster sampling and regression analysis, and applies quantity analysis, to analyze the situation of energy issues in Shandong province. The conflicts between the quick industrialization and increasing extensive economic development, between urban population and energy consuming per head, between the infinite energy consuming desire and the low level of managing system, and between the unstable world energy supply and the limited energy storage in China are the main factors of energy crisis in Shandong, which not only results in energy shortage, but also becomes the barrier of economic and social development. In order to ensure sufficient energy supply for Shandong province in the 21 st century, we should take countermeasures, such as changing the economic development model, pursuing a multiple and high quality energy strategy, improving the intensive urbanization strategy, and building a scientific energy system.     

山东省能源消费强度变动的结构及效率效应

从地区、产业以及规模以上工业三个视角,利用四种没有残值的指数分解方法将山东省的有关能源消费强度指标分解为效率效应和结构效应,研究结果显示:山东省生产总值的地区结构变动对其能源强度的下降有阻碍作用,而各地区能源效率的提高则有促进作用;农业、工业、建筑业、交通运输和仓储邮政、商业和住宿餐饮、其它服务业六大产业的增加值占全省增加值比重的变动对山东省能源强度的下降有不利影响,而各产业能源效率的变动则基本上起到促进作用;规模以上工业增加值的行业结构对规模以上工业能源强度的下降有增进作用,而各行业能源效率变动的影响则不稳定.着重发展第三产业,尤其是交通运输、商业、住宿餐饮之外的其它服务业、重视高耗能行业能源效率的持续提高、加强对重点地区的监控,包括泰安市、日照市、莱芜市、临沂市、聊城市等,是降低山东省能源强度的主要途径.