Rebound effect and its decomposition – an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested. However, most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types. We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources, and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component. To do so, we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model. We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model. In Scenario 1, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%. In Scenario 2, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%. The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving. Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%, and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved. Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand. Indeed, the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use, especially in crude oil and gas. This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy, both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound. And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound. Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound, this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.     

Energy intensity and its determinants in China: an empirical study based on ARDL-VECM approach

The present study aims to better understand the relationship between energy intensity and its determinants including energy price, technological progress, economic structure, and energy mix using the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds approach and vector error correction model technique. Based on China's time series over 1985-2014, the ARDL bounds approach yields empirical evidence that confirms the existence of long run relationship between energy price, technological progress, economic structure, energy mix, and energy intensity. The results show that technological progress is an important driver for the declining energy intensity in short and long run. Energy price has not been demonstrated as an important role in decreasing energy intensity in the short run. The high share of coal use in total energy use may be responsible for China's high energy intensity.However, the relative change in economic sectors plays a minor role in energy intensity reduction during the past years. In the long run, technological progress, energy mix and energy prices Granger cause energy intensity, but not vice versa except for the energy mix.     

基于能源类型的中国反弹效应测算及其分解

能源问题是实现可持续发展的重大战略问题。能效改进所引起的能耗反弹问题已成为能源经济学领域的一个重要议题。针对已有研究基于复合能源维度探讨反弹效应的不足,本文通过构建一个引入反弹效应测算模块的中国静态CGE模型,研究不同类型能源效率改进的节能效果和反弹差异,并将其在生产侧和消费侧进行分解。在分别提高所有生产部门一次能源使用效率和二次能源使用效率两种情景下,我们发现提高二次能源使用效率对经济的促进作用更大,带来的能源节约也更多。就反弹效应而言,两种情景的反弹效应在9.6%-27.9%范围间,但提高一次能源使用效率带来的反弹效应要普遍大于提高二次能源使用效率带来的反弹。这意味着,能效改进的能源类型选择将关系到政策的实施效果。对反弹效应在生产侧和消费侧的分解则显示,生产侧的能效改进会刺激消费侧能耗增加,而且来自消费侧的能耗增加在二次能源品种的反弹效应中扮演了重要角色,尤其是成品油和燃气。综上,我们认为不论从经济表现还是反弹效应来看,提高二次能源使用效率都是比较理想的能源类型选择,这是以往研究未曾注意到的。同时,由于反弹效应的存在确实降低了能效政策的有效性,因此政府在制定能效政策时可通过对冲能效改进带来的能源服务价格下降来减缓能耗反弹。引导和规范居民的用能观念和用能行为也是减缓反弹效应的一个重要途径,这一点对能源需求远未饱和的发展中国家尤其重要。     

Global trends and development of energy services industry in China

Energy service is an effective way to promote energy conservation by market mechanisms, including energy saving services, energy procurement, supply of many varieties of energy, supply of renewable energy technologies, energy-related consulting services, risk management, etc. China is a major energy consumer but energy is in short supply, and the efficiency of energy use is low. China’s energy service industry has expanded rapidly, in terms of both the number of new Energy Service Companies entering the market and amount of capital invested in Energy Performance Contracting projects, but the energy service sector in China is still at an early stage of development. Developed countries began early in developing the energy service sector and their energy service market is mature, and the experience of developed countries shows that energy services play a significant role in advancing energy saving and emission reduction. Under the new situation, China needs combine energy services experience of developed countries, and take following measures to accelerate China’s energy services rapid and healthy development, including the long-term aspects of policy planning, energy-saving core technology, finance and capital investment, public sector reductions, personnel training, and so on.     

An analytical investigation on energy efficiency of high-speed dry-cutting CNC hobbing machines

Abstract

Energy efficiency analysis has been recognised as an effective measure for the energy prediction, energy assessment and energy benchmarking in the machining system. However, study on energy efficiency of CNC hobbing machines, especially high-speed, dry-cutting CNC hobbing machines (HSDC-CHM), is still scarce. The energy consumption by HSDC-CHM is generally considered larger, and energy efficiency lower, than wet-cutting CNC hobbing machines (WC-CHM). Therefore, this paper summarises the investigation of energy efficiency of HSDC-CHM and establishes energy efficiency models of CNC hobbing machines. Energy efficiency of HSDC-CHM and WC-CHM are compared and analysed based on energy efficiency models established. Through the theory analysis, results show that, in the production line, although HSDC-CHM possess larger transient energy consumption, its energy efficiency is higher than energy efficiency of WC-CHM. Moreover, it is difficult to obtain quantitative energy efficiency of two types of hobbing machines due to massive relevant hard-to-acquire parameters using energy efficiency models; for this reason, experiments are performed to compare and analyse energy efficiency of HSDC-CHM and WC-CHM. The experiments results indicate that energy efficiency of HSDC-CHM is excellent and far higher than WC-CHM. The study results have a positive significance for the development and application of HSDC-CHM.     

Analysis of Influences between the Energy Structure Change and Energy Intensity in China

In this article, based on the data of the energy statistics from 1980 to 2004, we analyze the relationship between the primary energy structures, technique, management, and the energy use per unit of GDP based on the path analysis approach and present the degree of the direct, indirect, and the overall influences of the primary energy structures on the energy use per unit of GDP. The results show that the technical change and management level play a decisive role in the energy use per unit of GDP, and the ratio of oil consumption was the major limiting factor to energy use per unit of GDP. We then found the model of the energy use per unit of GDP and the structures of the primary energy consumption, eliminated the multicollinearity in the model with the path analysis result, and finally, analyzed the influence of the primary energy structure on the energy conservation.     

小城镇能源优化配置研究

构建我国能源安全体系面临诸多困境。小城镇能源保障是其最薄弱的环节之一。但小城镇能源保障及其优化配置问题并没有得到政府、学术界应有的重视。通过与城市的比较分析。得出小城镇能源类型和结构特征，指出能源自然禀赋构成小城镇能源类型和结构的“本底”。社会经济发展水平。产业结构变迁主宰小城镇能源类型和结构变迁。在此基础上，提出了小城镇能源优化配置战略目标和导向。根据这一目标和导向，对小城镇能源优化配置的政策措施进行初步探讨。包括编制小城镇能源资源利用规划；加快可再生能源的应用技术研究；建立小城镇能源资源分配、开发、流通的市场机制；保护小城镇能源资源；优化小城镇产业结构。大力推动循环经济；推广分布式能源供给模式，提高小城镇能源供给安全。     

Research on energy structure and development strategy from 2010 to 2015 in Qingdao,China

With the fast development of Qingdao’s economy, the energy consumption is increasing significantly. In this paper, based on the energy statistic data in Qingdao area from 2010 to 2015, energy consumption structure was analyzed, indicating the existence of single energy structure; that is, coal, petroleum, and natural gas are dominant in the area. Thus, some issues between energy supply and demand have been brought. To solve present problem, we put forward to formulate the development strategy of energy, including energy savings, the exploitation of petroleum and natural gas resources, the development and utilization of renewable energy sources, and energy policy. It is worthy of mentioning that, according to the geological investigation, the shale gas may be abundant in Qingdao area and the gas resource amount estimated is huge. This is our first finding, important for developing unconventional energy and adjusting the energy structure in Qingdao in the future. Therefore, we suggest that Qingdao government should take action to develop local new energy resources for satisfying the energy demand.     

Economic growth and energy consumption in Iran: an ARDL approach including renewable and non-renewable energies

Iran experiences a high level of energy consumption which is threatening not only economically but also politically and environmentally. This study aims to estimate the relationship between the economic growth with the various kinds of energies, non-hydroelectric, renewable, non-renewable, and total energies in Iran during 1967–2012, using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model. The results show the ineffective relationship between the economic growth and energy consumption in Iran, considering non-hydroelectric energy, renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and total energy, one by one as the energy proxy. It implies the ineffectiveness of both the quantitative and qualitative deflationary policies over the energy sector. In another word, neither decreasing energy consumption nor changing energy portfolio affects the economic growth. Therefore, the policy makers are advised to formulate those policies which reduce the quantity of energy consumption or increase the segment of renewable energies in the portfolio of energy consumption because they do not lead to the considerable negative consequence on the economic growth, while they increase both the environmental quality and energy security.     

Energy Analysis of Sugarcane Production in Morocco

An energy analysis of sugarcane production in small and large farms was made in Morocco. Total energy expenditures were 64.90 and 47.83 GJ/ha and energy outputs were 100.80 and 85.80 GJ/ha in large and small farms, respectively. The output/input energy ratios were 1.6 and 1.8. The energy intensity lies between 0.7 and 0.8 MJ/kg and is one of the highest among sugarcane producing countries. Irrigation is the most energy consuming operation with about 50% of total energy inputs. Electricity, fertilizers, fuel, and machinery are the main energy inputs. The influence of the different inputs is discussed and practical measures for energy saving and environmental conservation based on energy analysis are discussed.     

中国各省区单位GDP/IAV能耗强度结构模型

选取2007年中国各省市自治区单位GDP能耗、单位工业增加值能耗和相关的经济指标数据,从经济发展、能源工业产值占相应省区GDP的比重等方面分析了2007年中国各省市区能耗现状,结果发现：我国经济较发达的省区单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值能耗较低,经济较落后的省区这两种能耗指标较高;能源工业产值占相应省区GDP的比重越大,这两种能耗指标值越大。由此建立单位GDP能耗或单位IAV能耗与经济发展水平、能源工业产值占相应省区GDP的比重三者之间的结构模型,同时基于单位GDP能耗和单位IAV能耗,分别将中国各省区分为4种类型,并构建了二维矩阵表,据此对其产生的原因进行了分析,并提出建议。     

Energy consumption model and energy efficiency evaluation for CNC continuous generating grinding machine tools

Abstract

Machine tool, which is the basis energy consumed device in manufacturing system, its energy consumption model and energy efficiency evaluation are the prerequisites for energy saving in manufacturing. Considering the multi-energy-sources features,analysed the mathematical model of a CNC continuous generating grinding machine tool from the view of energy constitute. The energy sources of a CNC continuous generating grinding machine tool are classified into gear grinding system, grinding wheel dressing system and auxiliary system. Based on the power balance equations of energy flow, the energy flow system of a CNC continuous generating grinding machine tool is established. And then the energy consumption mathematical model of a CNC continuous generating grinding machine tool is set up by combining the power balance equations with the operating features of three kinds of energy sources. The case study shows that the proposed energy consumption model can provide fundamental support for energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency analysis and energy-saving optimisation during the machine tool operation process.     

相对地位变化对中国省际能源消耗的影响机制

由于在现有政治晋升体制中,各省在经济增长和节能降耗过程中对竞争地位的追求,导致各省的相对地位在能源消耗决策过程中起到十分重要的作用。本文基于中国省际政府官员考核和晋升机制现实背景,从相对身份效应理论的角度构建了省际能源消耗的理论模型,探讨了相对地位、地位变化对省际能源消耗的影响机制,具体表现为各省能源消耗的当期和上一期相对地位对能源强度具有行为理论上决策作用机制,当期人均GDP增速与上一期人均GDP绝对水平对能源强度具有行为意义上的理论解释机制,省际能源消耗具有的动态自适应机制。在理论分析基础上,进一步实证检验了省际能源消耗的相对身份效应理论,实证结果表明:(1)各省在当期能耗排名上竞争对节能具有积极作用,上一期能耗排名越靠后的省份在当期节能降耗的动机比排名靠前的省份更强烈,从而使得当期能耗下降。此外,在不同的考核时期和不同节能任务要求下,能耗排序对节能的影响存在差异,该影响也因各省所处相对位置高、低而不同。(2)当期经济增长与当期能源消耗呈现出同向变化的互补机制,上期经济增长与当期能源消耗呈现出反向变化的替代机制。(3)上一期能源强度下降会降低当期能源强度,省际能源强度存在着逐渐下降的动态自适应机制。基于此,我国对地方政府节能降耗的政策设计应当实施多节能目标、多奖惩措施的差异化模式,从而实现不同类别省份的有效节能和粗放型经济增长方式的快速转型。     

分布式能量系统在我国未来20年能源发展战略中的地位

为了使分布式能量系统（Distributed Energy System,简称DES）在我国更好地发展，本文从我国未来20年的能源发展战略出发，介绍了我国能源发展中依然存在的矛盾和问题，并通过对分布式能量系统组成、特点的研究，认为目前正是分布式能量系统发展的良好机遇：通过对分布式能量系统利用方式的研究，指出了分布式能量系统将在我国未来20年能源发展战略中的地位以及需要解决的相关问题。     

1990-2015年世界能源时空演变特征研究

能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程.能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化.基于1990-2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征.结果表明:①世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异.②世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势.③从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成“核心-次核心-节点”的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径.④经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全.随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整.     

全要素能源效率与中国经济增长收敛性——基于动态面板数据的实证检验

能源效率是促进经济增长、减少能源消费的关键政策参数,研究能源效率与经济增长收敛性关系,对于揭示能源效率在我国地区经济增长中的作用,指导能源发展战略具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文选取1995-2009年中国29个省份的面板数据样本,运用DEA方法测算全要素能源效率,发现全国以及区域能源效率经历了一个先上升再下降的过程,中国省域全要素能源效率差异显著,但总体上各省份之间的差异呈现缩小趋势;将能源效率纳入内生经济增长模型进行实证检验,运用IV、DIFF-GMM和SYS-GMM方法证明中国经济增长条件收敛存在,能源效率系数显著为正,说明能源效率促进中国经济增长和收敛;运用纠偏LSDV估计方法分区域开展实证检验,研究认为,能源效率对东部和中部地区经济增长起到显著的促进作用,由此表明能源效率对经济发达地区作用更为显著。基于此,国家能源效率提升战略重点应放在东中部能源消费集中地区,从而通过节能技术"溢出"效应促进西部地区能源效率的提升,以促进地区经济增长的收敛。     

中国能耗动态增长机理和节能内涵探讨

近年来,尽管我国政府围绕一些阶段性的能源效率改进指标(例如:降低我国单位国内生产总值的能源消耗)实施了一系列政策措施,并且就此已经取得了显著的成效,但这并未从根本上消除我国当前经济社会发展过程中存在的能源浪费和不合理使用现象,以及从长远来看我国经济社会发展趋向和依赖高能耗经济社会发展路径的隐患。究其原因,关键是对符合我国现实国情的节能内涵欠缺充分的认识,从而难以制定具有前瞻性和全局性的节能发展战略。在此背景下,本文在辨析节能基本概念的基础上,结合对我国当前能源消耗动态增长特征及其形成机理的剖析,进一步归纳出我国节能的本质内涵,指出"动态节能"是我国节能的本质内涵,而我国"动态节能"的根本目的在于减少我国实现现代化(例如城镇化和工业化等)整体过程中的"集总能源消耗"。本文开展的以上定性分析工作加深了对我国节能内涵的认识,为相关决策者制定更加全面的节能政策提供必要的决策参考依据。     

Study on the Regional Distribution of Energy Efficiency from the Point of Pollutant Emissions

In this paper,the author uses super-efficiency DEA model to measure the national and regional energy efficiency in China;using spatial econometric model and from the perspective of geo-spatial spillover,the author interprets the spatial characteristics of energy efficiency and extracts the main factors that influence the regional energy efficiency.The analysis results show that:(1) the national and regional energy efficiency is consistent with inverted U-shaped curve,and the nationwide energy efficiency gap is increasing;(2) energy efficiency has the obvious effect of the spatial external effect,and when the government makes energy saving strategies,inter-regional energy cooperation and the proliferation of advanced production technology should be given more priority;(3) energy efficiency has significant negative correlation with government intervention,industrial structure,ownership structure,the energy consumption structure,and resource endowments,and has positive correlation with the degree of opening-up and energy price.     

空间溢出、门槛特征与能源效率的经济增长效应

能源效率的改进能缓解经济增长过程中日益紧张的能源供需矛盾,然而空间异质性使得传统整体分析难以解释能源效率与经济增长之间的复杂关系。为了考察我国能源效率与经济增长的非线性空间联系,本文以我国1995-2009年省份面板数据,首先通过随机前沿生产函数模型测算我国各地区的能源效率及时空特征。接着,综合采用空间面板回归和门槛面板回归模型对能源效率与经济增长进行空间异质性检验,研究表明:能源效率对经济增长存在明显的空间外溢效应,空间溢出效应合理解释了能源效率与经济增长的空间非均衡分布。同时能源效率对经济增长存在门槛效应,能源效率对经济增长的弹性随着经济发展水平的提高而提高,但随着能源效率的提高而降低。本文政策含义明显:在制定能源的空间布局政策时应当加大对邻省较多、经济发展水平较高且能源效率较低省份的能源支出并努力提升这些省份的能源效率;而对经济发展水平较低且能源效率较高的省份,不宜从改进能源效率的思路来追求过快的经济增长。     

中部地区能源效率影响因素的分析模型与案例研究

利用1995～2007年中部地区六省的GDP和能源消费量数据，比较中部六省的能源效率情况，并构建能源效率影响因素的多元回归模型，对存在显著差异的地区进行案例分析。研究的结果表明能源资源较为丰富的地区能源效率较低，影响能源效率的因素有多种，其中经济发展水平、产业结构、原材料价格和能源价格这些因素对山西省的能源效率有显著性影响。为此，政府应转变经济增长方式，降低煤炭产业在GDP中的比例，大力发展第三产业，提高经济发展水平， 深入改革能源价格体系，科学合理地利用煤炭，增加对石油、天然气等其他能源消费的合理需求，以提高能源效率。