蓄滞洪区可持续发展研究

本文分析了蓄滞洪区在防洪体系中的地位及其所面临的矛盾以及国内外蓄滞洪区管理和规划的研究现状和不足 ,指出可持续发展的治水观是蓄滞洪区防洪减灾与社会发展的必然选择 ;通过对蓄滞洪区复合系统的分析 ,探讨了区内人口、社会、经济、资源及防洪减灾之间的关系 ,建立了蓄滞洪区复合系统的概念模型 ,提出了蓄滞洪区可持续发展的定义并分析了其内涵。     

Management of loss and damage in small island developing states: implications for a 1.5 °C or warmer world

Small island developing states (SIDS) have been identified as some of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change due to inherent environmental, economic, and demographic characteristics. As SIDS experience impacts of climate change and reach their limits to adaptation, the identification and management of loss and damage is essential. Monitoring and evaluating loss and damage, and implementing effective responses to address these impacts, becomes even more important in a 1.5 °C or warmer world, as impacts from climate change increase. As global agreements on climate change are implemented and mechanisms to manage impacts continue to be negotiated and established, the existing ability of SIDS to monitor and respond to loss and damage must be evaluated to determine gaps that must be addressed in a 1.5 °C or warmer world. This research utilizes interviews with UNFCCC climate change negotiators for SIDS and analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to assess the state of loss and damage management in SIDS. The research provides an assessment of loss and damage already being experienced in SIDS, the status of existing mechanisms to actively monitor and evaluate loss and damage, and the existence of policies and mechanisms in SIDS to address loss and damage. Three areas of concern appear to be common for SIDS: lack of data relating to loss and damage, gaps in financial assessments of loss and damage, and a lack of policies or mechanisms targeted at loss and damage. These issues appear to be most acute in relation to slow onset impacts. Cumulatively, these challenges may present difficulties in detection and attribution and in obtaining a holistic understanding of the extent and costs of loss and damage for SIDS.     

State simplification, heterogeneous causes of vegetation fires and implications on local haze management: case study in Thailand

The article studies the nature of current policy and management practice in Thailand on vegetation burnings and haze pollution and examines how these take into account heterogeneity and complexity of local conditions and causal factors on the ground. Chang Mai province’s recent haze episodes are used as case study. The country’s policy regime on vegetation burning and haze pollution is characterized as command-and-control and highly regulatory. Authors argue that haze problem is framed by the central and provincial government as a purely an administrative task of control and penalizing perpetrators of fire. This fails to take into account the heterogeneity and complexity of local conditions and drivers of burning occurrences, which in Chang Mai involves a variety of widely diffused forest and farming-based livelihood activities, such as hunting and forest product gathering, swidden farming, and burning of agricultural residues in rice cultivation. This state simplification in policy combines well with and is further reinforced by a centralized, top-down, and institutional landscape and functioning of government in decision-making, enabling the policy to cascade down to the province, districts, and sub-districts basically unaltered. Further, traditional administrative separatism between ministries and their provincial counterparts undermines the possibility of area-wide planning and integration of responses. The authors’ recommend a major policy shift, among others, including components of using local research on causal factors as tool for planning and policy, instituting incentives and reward systems for would-be fire igniters, area-wide local-transboundary approach, and strengthening autonomy of local government bodies. Authors have used documents review, secondary sources, and key informant interviews.     

安徽省主要气象灾害趋势演变及其对粮食总产的影响

为了揭示安徽省主要气象灾害的现状和变化规律，保障粮食作物稳产高产。该文利用1986~2017年安徽省78个市、县的干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冷冻害和雪灾等4类主要气象灾害的受灾、成灾率数据，采用气候倾向率、灰色关联度和R/S分析方法，分析了全省4类主要气象灾害的时空变化特征和未来发展趋势及其与粮食总产的关联度。结果表明：（1）全省4类气象灾害的受灾、成灾率均随年代呈下降趋势，近10年受灾、成灾率明显偏少；高值区多出现在淮北地区、皖南山区和大别山区，低值区大多出现在沿淮、江淮和沿江地区。（2）未来安徽省干旱受灾、成灾率将继续下降，洪涝将持续不明显的下降趋势，风雹、低温冷冻害和雪灾将由下降趋势转为平稳或略有上升的趋势。（3）4类气象灾害的受灾、成灾率与粮食总产量的关联度由高到低的排序均为: 洪涝、低温冷冻害和雪灾、干旱、风雹。由此说明洪涝是影响安徽省粮食生产最主要的气象灾害。     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

乡镇工业企业发展与环境,资源协调问题初探

我国乡镇工业企业的发展与环境、资源的协调问题已经成为我国发展与环境、资源关系方面的大问题。实行工农相对分离,组建乡村工业区,是提高乡镇工业企业素质、效益,强化乡镇工业企业优化组合、规模经营的有效途径;是保护环境,实现资源有效利用的基础工作之一;是提高农业劳动生产率,实现农业规模经营的基础工作之一。     

巢湖湖滨带生态恢复工程对暴雨径流氮磷削减效果研究

从湖滨带区域环境条件及氮磷输出强度差异出发,探讨湖滨带生态恢复工程对暴雨径流氮磷削减的特征及效果,选取巢湖西北岸湖滨带生态恢复区与原生灌草区内4个典型断面开展暴雨径流氮磷削减的对比试验,研究暴雨期及暴雨间期4个断面氮磷削减效果的差异及原因。结果表明:暴雨期,断面2和断面3对暴雨径流中氮磷去除效果明显,断面2对暴雨径流中氮、磷去除率分别为69%和60%,断面3对暴雨径流中氮、磷去除率分别为60%和58%;暴雨间期,断面2 区域内水体氮磷浓度平均下降67%和63%,断面3则为59%和51%;生态恢复工程去除暴雨径流中氮、磷的效果,与暴雨径流中氮、磷浓度呈显著正相关;断面2对暴雨径流氮磷削减效果最佳。     

快速发展地区经济增长与资源环境协调性分析——以南京为例

利用1995~2012年南京市经济增长和资源环境数据,综合运用产业结构的生态环境影响指数(ISE)、资源环境综合绩效指数(REPI)和脱钩分析工具,选择经济增长与资源环境的典型指标,定量分析了1995年以来南京市经济增长与资源环境的协调性。结果表明:研究时段内南京市经济增长与资源环境协调性总体呈升高趋势。ISE指数处于中等水平;REPI指数总体呈下降趋势,工业废水排放绩效提高幅度最快,工业废气排放绩效水平提高幅度最慢;经济增长与环境污染脱钩状态总体处于增长弱脱钩和强正脱钩,但是部分环境污染因子的脱钩状态出现短暂恶化情形。提出了提高经济增长与资源环境协调性的对策建议。     

Communities and change in the anthropocene: understanding social-ecological vulnerability and planning adaptations to multiple interacting exposures

The majority of vulnerability and adaptation scholarship, policies and programs focus exclusively on climate change or global environmental change. Yet, individuals, communities and sectors experience a broad array of multi-scalar and multi-temporal, social, political, economic and environmental changes to which they are vulnerable and must adapt. While extensive theoretical—and increasingly empirical—work suggests the need to explore multiple exposures, a clear conceptual framework which would facilitate analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to multiple interacting socioeconomic and biophysical changes is lacking. This review and synthesis paper aims to fill this gap through presenting a conceptual framework for integrating multiple exposures into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. To support applications of the framework and facilitate assessments and comparative analyses of community vulnerability, we develop a comprehensive typology of drivers and exposures experienced by coastal communities. Our results reveal essential elements of a pragmatic approach for local-scale vulnerability analysis and for planning appropriate adaptations within the context of multiple interacting exposures. We also identify methodologies for characterizing exposures and impacts, exploring interactions and identifying and prioritizing responses. This review focuses on coastal communities; however, we believe the framework, typology and approach will be useful for understanding vulnerability and planning adaptation to multiple exposures in various social-ecological contexts.     

Cost-effectiveness of recycling and recirculation of natural and energy resources based on the equality principle

A cost structure is proposed for optimizing the recirculation and recycling of commodities and energy usage considering regional, national and global operating scales. The methodology proposed involves business administration theory and economics and employs the previously introduced equality principle and the model for efficient use of resources for optimal production economy (EUROPE) to impose shadow costs on unwanted material wastes and energy residuals that produce economic incentives to reduce such wastes at the source. A case study presents the practical application of the proposed theory in a national and a global context. It is concluded that the presented methodology is useful for increasing the cost-effectiveness and optimizing recirculation and recycling in the usage of energy resources and natural resources in general. Profitability increases, technology is advanced and environmental conditions improve simultaneously through the application of the EUROPE model to analyze government policy related to the recirculation and recycling of solid wastes and energy. Furthermore, the equity of the distribution of such recirculation and recycling facilities is improved. The developed methods are useful information support tools for decision-making in the management of energy and other natural resources with emphasis on the economics of recirculated and recycled residuals.     

Are energy conservation and emission reduction policy measures effective for industrial structure restructuring and upgrading?

The use of energy conservation emission reduction policies to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading and thus facilitate energy conservation and emission reduction is one of the 10 important strategies of environmental management in China. The use of energy conservation emission reduction policies to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading and thus facilitate energy conservation and emission reduction is one of the important strategies of environmental management in China. Based on the systematic collection of 1,195 energy conservation emission reduction policies, we discuss the influence of individual measure and measure synergy of energy conservation and emission reduction policies respectively. The results show that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies have a significant effect on the overall promotion of industrial upgrading. The financial measures and guidance measures have a positive impact; the financial measures and guidance measures have significantly positive effect; however, the administrative measures, fiscal tax measures, and other economic measures do the opposite; the positive effect of the synergy of guidance measures and financial measures is greater than the negative effect of considering only the synergy of fiscal tax measures and other economic measures, and significantly greater than the negative effect of the synergy of administrative measures, fiscal tax measures, and other economic measures. We should strengthen and emphasize the use of the measure that has positive effect on industrial structure restructuring and upgrading individually and synergistically.     

协同视角下长江经济带制造业转移及区域合作研究

《长江经济带发展规划纲要》的正式印发,为区域经济和产业发展指明了方向,其产业转移及区域合作逐渐成为地理学研究的热点。以2008、2017年长江经济带11省市的28个制造业工业总产值和企业数量为研究数据,应用动态集聚指数、偏离份额模型(SSM)、静态集聚指数等方法对长江经济带制造业转移及区域合作进行探究。研究表明:(1)长江经济带纺织业、黑色、有色金属冶炼业等劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业具有较强的空间转移特征,其转移路径主要由上海、浙江向中、上游地区的贵州、湖南等地多对多的扩散式和跳跃式转移为主,转移类型主要以下游地区的"优势转移型"、"淘汰型"与中、上游地区的"优势集聚型"为主;(2)长江经济带中上游地区在交通运输、化学制造等行业发展较为薄弱,缺乏中心合作地区,需要下游地区提供更多的技术与资金支持;(3)长江经济带下游地区作为产业转移与技术授让的供体,应构建以长江经济带下游地区为制造业转移中心,以具有产业比较优势的中、上游地区为区域性中心,加大向中、上游地区制造业转移与合作力度,同时带动其他地区形成优势互补、协同发展的多中心分工协作格局。研究有助于完善制造业转移及区域合作相关理论,为长江经济带各省市制造业对接合作及协同发展提供借鉴意义。     

资源环境承载力研究进展:基于地理学综合研究的视角

资源环境承载力作为连接社会系统、环境系统与经济系统之间的纽带,是协调人口、资源与环境相互联系、又彼此相对独立的矛盾统一体的关键所在。资源环境承载力是地理学综合研究的重要方向。综合性与区域性、人地关系是支撑其发展的重要理论框架。本文对国内外资源环境承载力的研究进展、存在问题和发展趋势进行了详尽的综述。国内外资源环境承载力研究经近百年发展,从最初的单一的土地资源承载力、水资源承载力甚至农业资源承载力发展到资源承载力、环境承载力以及生态环境承载力。近几十年,生态足迹、虚拟水、能值分析等综合研究理论与方法兴起,极大地推动了资源环境承载力研究的定量化和模式化。目前,资源环境承载力的研究面临着一系列新的要求和挑战。主要表现在:资源环境承载力理论基础、学科范式和方法体系尚需继续完善;若干关键科学问题(包括:尺度效应、关键阈值、变化机制等)亟待解答;基础研究需要与实践应用加强联系等等。在此基础上,本文主张从地理学综合视角重新审视资源环境承载力研究的理论框架和今后研究的优先主题。通过建构资源环境承载力的地理学综合研究范式,能够拓展资源环境承载力的理论深度和广度,有助于提升资源环境承载力在国民经济社会发展中的应用水平。本研究提出未来相关研究应围绕以下优先主题开展:(1)资源环境承载力关键要素的变化及驱动机制;(2)资源环境承载力综合评价的理论与方法;(3)资源环境承载力的动态监测与预警;(4)基于资源环境承载力的国土功能区划与管控;(5)重点区域的资源环境承载力的恢复与提升途径。     

人类社会发展中两种关系的历史演变与可持续发展

在人与环境所组成的世界系统中，人与环境、人与人是两种最基本的关系，它们之间相互依存并相互影响。在人类社会的生存阶段与发展阶段中，两种关系表现出明显不同的作用性质与作用内容。当今世界，人类社会所面临的发展危机（贫富分化与资源环境问题)均直接表现为两种关系的矛盾冲突。分析表明．只有同时实现人与环境的和谐以及人与人之间的公平，才有可能实现可持续发展。     

快速工业化区域建设用地问题与制度优化研究——以佛山市南海区为例

快速工业化区域是工业化快速发展、工业化水平迅速提升、经济社会结构急剧变化的新兴地域类型。普遍存在着建设用地总量急剧扩张、空间无序分散、城乡缺乏统筹等问题。本文从佛山市南海区典型案例入手，运用新制度经济学原理。归纳和解析了快速工业化区域城乡建设用地的主要问题，认为双二元管理体制、农村土地产权不完善、城乡土地市场发育不平衡和部门规划不协调等是建设用地发展的主要体制性障碍因素，并从管理、产权、市场、规划等方面系统提出相应的制度优化对策。     

德清县水环境压力与胁迫类型区划分

在第一次地理国情普查统计数据与调研数据的支持下,采取小流域划分与圩区划分相结合的方法,对德清县进行水环境空间评价单元划分。选用畜禽养殖污水排放量、重点企业污水排放量、农药化肥入河量、城镇与乡村生活污水排放量等5个指标,运用GIS空间分析与统计分析方法进行水污染负荷综合分析,并进行压力类型划分。尝试利用水环境功能区划及生态环境功能区划的既有成果对各空间评价单元进行水环境目标类型区划分,并将水环境目标类型与其水环境压力类型进行空间匹配分析,共划分为7种水环境胁迫类型区。此外,对各胁迫类型区的主要村域分布进行了识别。     

洞庭湖退田还湖区畜牧业资源与环境评估

以洞庭湖流域3个选择畜牧业为替代产业的退田还湖示范堤垸为例,以氟、铬、镉、铅、汞和砷为主要检测指标,参照国家标准,分别对示范堤垸内与畜牧业密切相关的水、土壤与饲草饲料的质量进行了评估。结果表明,示范堤垸水环境化学指标除了大肠杆菌群落外,其余基本达到了无公害和绿色食品卫生标准中关于农田灌溉用水和养殖用水的规定;土壤中铬、镉、铅、汞和砷与氟的背景值均低于无公害和绿色食品标准规定的产地土壤环境指标;大部分饲料、饲草原料中氟、铬、镉、铅、汞和砷含量符合无公害或绿色食品卫生标准。示范堤垸水、土和饲料资源的良好环境背景状况为畜牧业向绿色或有机畜牧业方向发展奠定了自然条件与资源的基础。     

基于复合区位熵的中国油气资源产业集群识别

油气产业集群识别为完善区域油气产业发展规划和明确不同区域油气产业集群发育程度差异提供科学依据。本文油气产业集群识别包括产业集群地理边界确定和产业集群辨认,选择行政区划省(直辖市或自治区)作为油气产业集群识别的地理边界;基于企业数量区位熵、产业产值区位熵和就业区位熵提出复合区位熵概念CLQ,并据此将我国12个油气资源富集省区依油气产业集群发育程度辨认(识别)为三个梯队:第一梯队包括新疆、黑龙江、辽宁、天津、山东、甘肃6省区,油气产业上、下游均不同程度地发育产业集群;第二梯队包括陕西、吉林、河北、四川、青海5省区,油气产业上、下游并非均发育产业集群;第三梯队为河南,油气产业上、下游均不发育产业集群;进一步计算12省区油气产业上、下游的CLQ差值,结果表明,总体上我国这12个油气资源富集省区油气产业下游相对于上游发育不足,油气产业链出现"上游大,下游小"的畸形格局。     

丝绸之路经济带中国段后备可利用水土资源空间分布格局研究

丝绸之路经济带横跨我国东部到西部,水土资源的空间分异特征明显,对该区域水土资源的空间分布格局和分异规律进行监测和评价,能有效地引导经济带开发的空间布局。基于GIS空间分析与统计数据定量分析,通过计算研究区各地级市的后备可利用土地资源和水资源进行分析:(1)后备可利用水土资源总量的空间分布特征及其地域分异规律;(2)人均后备可利用水土资源的空间分布格局和资源丰度分异规律;(3)人均后备可利用土地资源与水资源的分布匹配程度,以及区域人均后备可利用水土资源的空间分异规律分析。结果表明:研究区共有后备可利用土地资源309 849.6 km~2,后备可利用水资源1 512.21亿m~3;后备可利用水土资源人均占有量呈现由南往北、由西向东递减的趋势,水土资源空间分布不均,且土地资源与水资源的空间分布不相匹配。     

Linking perceived land and water resources degradation,scarcity and livelihood conflicts in southwestern Tanzania: implications for sustainable rural livelihood

In Africa, the land and water resources quality are key factors for sustainable development. The degradation of the quality of these resources leads to scarcities and conflicts, which together threaten the sustainability of rural livelihoods. This work investigated and analysed the livelihoods conflicts over the land and water resources and their scarcities, policies that contributed to the land and water scarcities and the livelihood conflicts and linkage of the conflicts to the resources scarcities and degradation. Implications of degradation of the resources, development policies and livelihoods conflicts on sustainable development are discussed. Literature study, visits and discussions, participatory assessments, observations and questionnaire survey were used tools to collect data. Interviews of the 266 households revealed that, those experiencing the land and water scarcities and conflicts over these resources are significantly (p < 0.001) higher than those not experiencing the scarcities and conflicts. Crop-livestock competition, over the land and water resources causes prominent conflicts. A significant, (p < 0.05) associations of livelihoods conflicts to water shortage and period of water shortage for crop and livestock production were found. Improved accessibility to soil and water management technologies, wildlife–livestock co-existence, recognition of needs and land rights for pastoralists are recommended to minimize scarcities and herders versus farmers’ conflicts.