后巴黎时代气候变化公约资金机制的构建

气候变化公约资金机制是串联全球开展应对气候变化行动的纽带,也是通过国际合作实现"2℃"乃至"1.5℃"温控目标的关键支撑。多年来,由于发达国家和发展中国家在是否依据历史责任划分履约义务上存在根本分歧,公约资金机制面临多渠道并行、运行规则多样化、资金使用分散、运行效率偏低、绩效评估欠缺等问题。本文对气候变化公约缔结20余年来各资金机制的产生和运行进行了系统梳理;对其存在的不足以及在全球气候融资体系中面临的挑战进行了剖析;并基于《巴黎协定》资金案文描述和履约要求,围绕气候资金从筹集到最终绩效产出全过程,就如何构建未来气候变化公约资金机制进行了统筹规划和设计。在机制建设层面,通过出资分摊机制以及公约下集中式管理平台的构建,确保气候资金的充足性、可预见性以及对公约的责任性;在运行操作层面,通过各渠道重点业务领域及国别资金分配体系的优化,推动气候资金的公平性和有效性;在资金使用层面,通过受援国气候资金统一管理实体和监督评估体系的建立,提高气候资金的国家主导性和环境效益。未来,公约资金机制仍将是全球开展应对气候变化国际合作的主要渠道,在《巴黎协定》达成、绿色气候基金正式运行、国际气候制度重新构建的背景下,利用资金机制推动发达国家履行公约义务,切实向发展中国家提供资金、技术和能力建设支持,对确保公约各要素的全面性和平衡性,推动全球应对气候变化行动开展,强化发展中国家集团统一立场都有着重要的现实意义。     

Adaptation of institutional arrangements to management of Northern Rangelands of Kenya

Northern Rangelands of Kenya have continued to grapple with management challenges largely due to a lack of understanding of the dynamics thereof. Eroding customary institutions and new institutional arrangements characterize the system suggesting that adaptation is taking place to cope with the change. It is imperative that these socio-ecosystems adjust to the disturbance without disintegrating into a different state that is controlled by a different set of processes to ensure sustainable rangeland management. To understand the nature of change, the study sought to evaluate institutional arrangements engaged in tackling growing socio-economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. Three study sites namely Kinna, Makurian and Westgate, representing three types of institutional arrangements (elders only, group ranch committee and community conservancy board), were investigated. Key informants, focused group discussions and household survey methods were used to gather data. Data were managed and analysed using Ms Access, Ms Excel, social network analysis and SPSS. Findings indicate that more actors (internal and external) are engaging in management of social economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. The co-management approach allows increased capacity to tackle these challenges and further presents more opportunities for a diversified livelihood, two key features of ecosystem resilience. Findings are useful as the Kenya government implements the National Land Policy that recognizes the need to restructure community land and its management.     

张家口地区生态可持续性评价研究

张家口市生态环境比较脆弱。经济上属于河北省落后地区，且近邻首都北京，因此它的发展不断引起人们的关注。本文选用了由加拿大生态学家Rees和Wackenagel等提出的生态足迹模型，对张家口地区进行可持续发展的定量测算。结果表明：张家口市自1990年到2000年一直处于不可持续状态，且人均生态赤字呈逐年增大的趋势。针对这种情况，本文提出全面发展精细农业、促进工业升级以及以“人”为本的区域发展对策。     

Unraveling the causes of the toxicity of extremely acid waters of volcanic origin

A river ecosystem in East Java, Indonesia, fed by a volcanic lake with high concentrations of dissolved metals and a low pH, was found to support only few macroinvertebrates. To unravel the causes of toxicity and to determine the level of dilution necessary to obtain non-toxic water, a bioassay was conducted with the fairy shrimp Thamnocephalus platyurus. A partial toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) approach was used with EDTA as a chelating agent to relate toxicity to pH and metal concentrations. Three water samples were tested, with pHs ranging from 0.72 to 4.5, and diluted with water from a neutral river to different degrees. The dilution factor necessary to achieve no more than 50% mortality in the Thamnotox test (Ldf(50)) varied from >300 at the most acidic site, to 7 for water of pH 2.6 and 1.5 for water of pH 4.5. Toxicity was best explained from both low pH and high concentrations of metals, especially Al and Fe. The key role of Al and Fe in the toxicity was confirmed by relating concentrations of the different compounds in the river water to toxicity data from the literature. EDTA addition did not significantly influence Ldf(50) or the lethal pH 50% (LpH(50)), suggesting a large effect, besides cationic components and pH, of anions (F, SO(4) and Cl).     

The influence of the level of definition of functional specifications on the environmental performances of a complex system. EcoCSP approach

The tendency towards a homogenous mode of development modelled on that of Western countries means that sustainable development has become increasingly urgent. It is necessary to thoroughly redefine products and their expected performances in such a way that the consequences are compatible with sustainable development. In the domain of product design, this means that it is no longer sufficient to use assessment tools “after the fact” to check the impact of products whose functional unit (FU) was defined prior to production; it is now necessary to rethink the definition of the FU itself. This article aims to present an approach based on a combination of life cycle analysis methods and problem-solving by constraint satisfaction. This original approach makes it possible to vary the design of the different dimensions of the FUs of a complex system and thus to make it easier to identify the best architecture along with the best functional definition of the system. In this study, the EcoCSP approach is applied to define the functional performances of an ecological passenger ferry. The complexity of couplings between subsystems and the sheer number of those subsystems mean that the designer has to use “intelligent” tools. These simulate a great number of scenarios and help him/her to fine-tune the system and make the right technological choices with regard to the right functional specifications.     

Exploring development strategies of agricultural systems of Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh

This study presents the determinants and development strategies of agricultural systems of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh using multivariate analysis. A total of 18 selected variables transformed into 4 factors extracted by principal factor method explain 77.21 % of the total variability of the agricultural systems in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), and the agricultural systems in CHT are classified as extensive, semi-intensive, intensive and mixed using cluster analysis. Agricultural extension services, credit facilities and infrastructure such as distance to markets are identified as the main factors responsible for the changes in agricultural systems in CHT. Finally, it has been suggested to provide knowledge and skills to the farmers in CHT through agricultural extension using farmer field schools, microcredit using Grameen Bank approach and facilities such as improved transportation to the markets for better price and higher profit from the sale of the agricultural products to enable the farmers to move from shifting cultivation to environmentally and economically sound semi-intensive or intensive agricultural systems.     

凤凰城旅游景区转让后的效应评价

在我国经济市场化改革的大背景下，转让景区经营权、实行企业化运作成为一些风景名胜区经营管理改革过程中的一种制度创新模式。地处西部大开发战略图中的湘西凤凰县由于在旅游开发中受到了资金缺口和管理瓶颈的双重制约，于2001年底将其辖域内的八大景区（点）的50年经营权转让给了湖南黄龙洞投资股份有限公司。景区经营权转让是一个十分复杂而敏感的话题。本文避开关于景区经营权转让的各种是非争论，基于对旅游地社区各利益主体以及旅游者的实地调查和访谈记录分析，对凤凰景区企业化运作三年来的绩效与影响作了较为客观的评估，并就如何完善景区企业化运作模式、规避经营管理风险和负面影响等提出了相关理论思考和政策建议。     

System analysis of biogeocenoses of the Yamal Peninsula: Simulation of the impact of large-herd reindeer breeding on vegetation

The systemic approach based mainly on computer simulation has been used to assess the dynamics of ecosystems of the Yamal Peninsula, which have been exposed to the impact of numerous reindeer herds because of extensive development of reindeer breeding during the past decades. This type of development has been demonstrated to result in degradation of vegetation, whose profound changes preclude further development of reindeer breeding in the same way. The current situation requires major amendments to the ethnic-cultural and economic policy in the region.     

Empirical analysis of the variability of the maximum likelihood estimates of benzene cancer risks

This paper presents results from an on-going study of the carcinogenicity of benzene at low doses. It focuses on the statistical variability of the parametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameters of the linearized multistage (LMS) cancer dose-response model. This paper describes: 1) how pharmacokinetic conversions from animal to human were made to convert administered benzene to estimated internal doses of its metabolites; 2) the exact form of the LMS; 3) likelihood surfaces for fitting the exact form to data; and 4) results of bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations that assess the variability of the parameters of the dose-response model. This paper suggests that the cubic form of the LMS dose-response for animal tumors is robust to sampling variability. For environmental policy, the hypothesis that linearity governs low dose benzene carcinogenicity is probably incorrect.     

生态中心论之后现代视域的辨析

作为当代环境伦理学之生态中心论的代表,克里考特以新物理学与生态学的视角引向后现代主义的整体观。这一思路指向的是整体论系统观的范式,后者具有四项特征:1整体的性质不能被还原为部分的性质;2整体是部分形成的原因与依据;3部分是系统地互相联系的;4部分是内在地互相联系的,即关系决定存在。以该整体论系统观的范式为依据,克里考特的后现代视域既涉及本体论,也指向价值论。在本体层面,克里考特借鉴了深生态学中"充分实现的自我"的概念试图解构笛卡尔的主客二分。进而,在削弱现代哲学中三类性质(数量性、质量性与价值性)区分的同时,克里考特提出了"实质价值"的概念,并试图以实质价值消解内在价值的同时统摄固有价值与工具价值。在文本梳理的基础上,本文也考察了克里考特的后现代视域的逻辑依据与实践可能。具体地,本文指出:1克里考特以实证科学之认知来架构形上本体的思路混淆了科学命题与玄学命题的区别内涵;2建立在消解三类性质基础上的"实质价值"架空了价值本身的应然引力;3克里考特过分地强调了整体与部分的对立从而容易陷入逻辑悖论;4克里考特以关系消解实体的本质是将关系作了唯内在性的理解,而这种理解是缺乏支持力的。特别地,克里考特以整体解析部分并以关系消解个体的进路将导致伦理虚无主义。针对克里考特理论的缺陷,本文指出,以"关系"为纽结的部分与整体之间是体用统一的;而实体间的关系,既具有内在性的一面,也具有外在性的一面;并且,关系的外在性既具有本然的维度,也具有应然的维度,即,它是道德实践的必要前提。     

The advancement of a mathematical model of sustainable development

Earth System Analysis was postulated as a theory by Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber in 1998 as a way to characterise the Earth System—the coupled relationship between the environment and humans. Within this theory is the notion of Geocybernetics—management of the Earth System in order to achieve strategies and mechanisms of co-evolution between the environment and humans. This is regarded as the concept and application of sustainable development. However, whilst fundamental definitions in Earth System Analysis are presented for the coupled relationship between the environment and humans, no such definitions exist for sustainable development within the Earth System context. Consequently, this paper presents a mathematical model of sustainable development that provides for the fundamental abstraction of the key concepts and parameters necessary for sustainable development to occur. The model utilises basic mathematics to detail these concepts and parameters, as well as the conditions required for sustainable development to occur. The model presented is, in some regards, a work in progress, and further refinements will be made given the nature of the research performed to this point, i.e. the fundamental mathematical definition of sustainable development and its application. However, the research conducted thus far has made it reasonable to communicate the findings made up to the present point. The paper also provides a brief example of the application of the model to an environmental impact assessment of a metro rail scheme in India, for the purpose of evaluating the level of sustainable development (if appropriate) for the project under consideration.     

The hypothesis of hydrochorous dissemination of populations of conifers

A comparative analysis of field observations and experiments on the distance and rate of dispersal of self-sown Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) progeny has shown that the rate of their hydrochorous dissemination downstream is an order of magnitude higher than the rate of dispersal in upland areas. A hypothesis assigning priority to the role of hydrochory in the expansion of conifer populations to the tundra (periglacial) zone along with climate warming has been formulated and substantiated by comparative isozyme analysis of populations in transects lying along and across rivers.     

资源型旅游地增长极限的理论模型

在经济发展中,国内诸多地区都将旅游业发展作为支柱产业,但对其长期有效性却缺少理论和实证的探讨。一些落后地区虽然靠旅游发展获得第一桶金。走的是资源经济之路。但带动效益有限。本研究运用最新的发展理论,在对典型资源型旅游地作分析的基础上,建立了资源型旅游目的地发展的一般结构模型,并指出导致资源型旅游地发展的内部限制性因素。本研究希望更多的研究人员关注这一问题,从理论和实证上丰富和验证本文提出的理论假设。     

Assessment of the radiological impact of oil refining industry

The field of radiation protection and corresponding national and international regulations has evolved to ensure safety in the use of radioactive materials. Oil and gas production processing operations have been known to cause naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORMs) to accumulate at elevated concentrations as by-product waste streams. A comprehensive radiological study on the oil refining industry in Egypt was carried out to assess the radiological impact of this industry on the workers. Scales, sludge, water and crude oil samples were collected at each stage of the refining process. The activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K were determined using high-resolution gamma spectrometry. The average activity concentrations of the determined isotopes are lower than the IAEA exempt activity levels for NORM isotopes. Different exposure scenarios were studied. The average annual effective dose for workers due to direct exposure to gamma radiation and dust inhalation found to be 0.6 μSv and 3.2 mSv, respectively. Based on the ALARA principle, the results indicate that special care must be taken during cleaning operations in order to reduce the personnel's exposure due to maintenance as well as to avoid contamination of the environment.     

Examining Community Perceptions of Energy Systems Development: The Role of Communication and Sense of Place

An increasing demand for the development and implementation of low carbon energy systems has furthered the need to understand the factors that influence a community's support for or opposition to local energy developments. Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage (CCS) is one such energy system where it is widely acknowledged that public perceptions and acceptance of CCS technologies are critical to their implementation. CCS refers to the capture of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial sources and the long-term storage of these emissions in stable underground reservoirs. This case study examines how place attachment and community networks factored into resident's perceptions of a proposed CCS project that was ultimately canceled due to local opposition. Participants were concerned about preserving shared places, spaces, and interactions that were valued by community members. Results demonstrate the need to ascertain how locally affected populations view CCS or other energy developments, especially with regard to their ideas about community, sense of place (ties to area and local relationships), and how they communicate about those factors. Such factors are important given the initiative to develop low carbon energy systems in rural areas.     

Ecological monitoring of urban groups of stray dogs: An example of the city of petrozavodsk

The results of the census of stray dogs and data on their territorial distribution in the city of Petrozavodsk are reported. The population density of these animals has been found to vary within the urban area, depending mainly on the availability of secluded areas to live in and on population control by municipal services.     

From Narrative of Promise to Rhetoric of Sustainability: A Genealogy of Oil Sands

Since its conception, “oil sands” has been the name of a pro-development narrative seeking to convince skeptics that bitumen saturating the sandstone of Alberta’s Athabasca region ought to be extracted and chemically altered into Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO). Over the decades, the nature of skepticism has changed, and thus oil sands (along with its meanings and claims) has been continually reproduced so as to placate new criticisms. This paper offers a discursive genealogy of the oil sands narrative, demonstrating how it has been transformed from what was throughout the twentieth century a materially situated “narrative of promise” aiming to prove that SCO production was physically possible and that it could be commercially profitable, into what by 2015 was at its core a largely reactive “rhetoric of sustainability” aiming to convince a new class of critics that, contrary to their claims, SCO was in fact being produced in an environmentally responsible manner.     

中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析

入世后．中国将根据WTO的要求对农业贸易相关政策进行调整和改革，这将改变国内农业生产，进而影响到农村生态环境。在此背景下．本文首先界定了种檀业产品贸易自由化的涵义．并对其环境影响途径进行分析．然后利用计量经济方法着重分析了贸易自由化对国内种植业生产中化肥、农药使用的影响。研究结果表明，在种植业产品的贸易自由化中，进口渗透作用对缓解国内化肥、农药污染影响显着．而出口导向作用影响不明显。文章最后给出了减缓农产品贸易自由化的不利影响，发挥其有利影响的政策建议。     

Application of TISM and MICMAC for analysis of influential factors of sustainable development of tablet devices: a case study

Abstract

With the advancements in technology and increase in demand for eco-efficient products, manufacturers are focusing on sustainable development of products. Enticing a huge demand over the recent years, sustainable development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products are a subject of interest for most practitioners and academicians. A number of factors are found to influence the sustainable development of ICT products. It is necessary to identify the most important factors and determine the dependencies of factors among themselves. In this regard, a case study has been conducted in the context of sustainable development of tablet devices. The most influential factors have been identified from literature and with experts input. The factor dependencies are established using Total Interpretive Structural Modelling (TISM) methodology. MICMAC analysis is used to classify the factors based on their ability to influence other factors. The output of TISM forms the input for MICMAC analysis. From the study, it was found that the factors, ‘Customer pressure’, ‘Government regulations’, ‘Competitiveness’, ‘Organization initiative’ and ‘Technological advancements’ are the most driving factors. Factors ‘Environmental impact’, ‘Energy efficiency’ and ‘Opportunities to upgrade’ were found to be dependent.     

Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.