基于复合区位熵的中国油气资源产业集群识别

油气产业集群识别为完善区域油气产业发展规划和明确不同区域油气产业集群发育程度差异提供科学依据。本文油气产业集群识别包括产业集群地理边界确定和产业集群辨认,选择行政区划省(直辖市或自治区)作为油气产业集群识别的地理边界;基于企业数量区位熵、产业产值区位熵和就业区位熵提出复合区位熵概念CLQ,并据此将我国12个油气资源富集省区依油气产业集群发育程度辨认(识别)为三个梯队:第一梯队包括新疆、黑龙江、辽宁、天津、山东、甘肃6省区,油气产业上、下游均不同程度地发育产业集群;第二梯队包括陕西、吉林、河北、四川、青海5省区,油气产业上、下游并非均发育产业集群;第三梯队为河南,油气产业上、下游均不发育产业集群;进一步计算12省区油气产业上、下游的CLQ差值,结果表明,总体上我国这12个油气资源富集省区油气产业下游相对于上游发育不足,油气产业链出现"上游大,下游小"的畸形格局。     

Are energy conservation and emission reduction policy measures effective for industrial structure restructuring and upgrading?

The use of energy conservation emission reduction policies to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading and thus facilitate energy conservation and emission reduction is one of the 10 important strategies of environmental management in China. The use of energy conservation emission reduction policies to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading and thus facilitate energy conservation and emission reduction is one of the important strategies of environmental management in China. Based on the systematic collection of 1,195 energy conservation emission reduction policies, we discuss the influence of individual measure and measure synergy of energy conservation and emission reduction policies respectively. The results show that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies have a significant effect on the overall promotion of industrial upgrading. The financial measures and guidance measures have a positive impact; the financial measures and guidance measures have significantly positive effect; however, the administrative measures, fiscal tax measures, and other economic measures do the opposite; the positive effect of the synergy of guidance measures and financial measures is greater than the negative effect of considering only the synergy of fiscal tax measures and other economic measures, and significantly greater than the negative effect of the synergy of administrative measures, fiscal tax measures, and other economic measures. We should strengthen and emphasize the use of the measure that has positive effect on industrial structure restructuring and upgrading individually and synergistically.     

洞庭湖退田还湖区畜牧业资源与环境评估

以洞庭湖流域3个选择畜牧业为替代产业的退田还湖示范堤垸为例,以氟、铬、镉、铅、汞和砷为主要检测指标,参照国家标准,分别对示范堤垸内与畜牧业密切相关的水、土壤与饲草饲料的质量进行了评估。结果表明,示范堤垸水环境化学指标除了大肠杆菌群落外,其余基本达到了无公害和绿色食品卫生标准中关于农田灌溉用水和养殖用水的规定;土壤中铬、镉、铅、汞和砷与氟的背景值均低于无公害和绿色食品标准规定的产地土壤环境指标;大部分饲料、饲草原料中氟、铬、镉、铅、汞和砷含量符合无公害或绿色食品卫生标准。示范堤垸水、土和饲料资源的良好环境背景状况为畜牧业向绿色或有机畜牧业方向发展奠定了自然条件与资源的基础。     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

协同视角下长江经济带制造业转移及区域合作研究

《长江经济带发展规划纲要》的正式印发,为区域经济和产业发展指明了方向,其产业转移及区域合作逐渐成为地理学研究的热点。以2008、2017年长江经济带11省市的28个制造业工业总产值和企业数量为研究数据,应用动态集聚指数、偏离份额模型(SSM)、静态集聚指数等方法对长江经济带制造业转移及区域合作进行探究。研究表明:(1)长江经济带纺织业、黑色、有色金属冶炼业等劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业具有较强的空间转移特征,其转移路径主要由上海、浙江向中、上游地区的贵州、湖南等地多对多的扩散式和跳跃式转移为主,转移类型主要以下游地区的"优势转移型"、"淘汰型"与中、上游地区的"优势集聚型"为主;(2)长江经济带中上游地区在交通运输、化学制造等行业发展较为薄弱,缺乏中心合作地区,需要下游地区提供更多的技术与资金支持;(3)长江经济带下游地区作为产业转移与技术授让的供体,应构建以长江经济带下游地区为制造业转移中心,以具有产业比较优势的中、上游地区为区域性中心,加大向中、上游地区制造业转移与合作力度,同时带动其他地区形成优势互补、协同发展的多中心分工协作格局。研究有助于完善制造业转移及区域合作相关理论,为长江经济带各省市制造业对接合作及协同发展提供借鉴意义。     

长江中游湿地系统驱动关系的演变及保护展望

简要介绍了长江中游湿地的概况,分析了湿地演变的现状。在自然和人为因素长期、综合作用下,长江中游湿地发生了显著的不合理演变,主要表现在：湖泊面积减少,湿地功能下降;湿地资源的过度和不合理利用,生物多样性下降;湿地环境污染日益严重;湿地整体价值受损。重点对湿地系统演变过程中的几个关键驱动关系进行了探讨,包括江湖关系、蓄泄关系、湖垸关系和山湖（河）关系等。在此基础上,针对长江中游湿地演变的现状和利用保护过程中存在的问题,从流域综合管理角度出发,对长江中游湿地的保护进行了展望,提出了基于流域管理思想的长江中游湿地保护对策和措施,主要包括：加强流域统一协调管理;遵循流域管理原则,理顺湿地系统的各种关系,做好湿地生态规划;加强流域生态管理模式研究;加强长江中上游流域水土流失的综合治理;加强自然保护区建设和管理,保护湿地生物多样性。     

Management of loss and damage in small island developing states: implications for a 1.5 °C or warmer world

Small island developing states (SIDS) have been identified as some of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change due to inherent environmental, economic, and demographic characteristics. As SIDS experience impacts of climate change and reach their limits to adaptation, the identification and management of loss and damage is essential. Monitoring and evaluating loss and damage, and implementing effective responses to address these impacts, becomes even more important in a 1.5 °C or warmer world, as impacts from climate change increase. As global agreements on climate change are implemented and mechanisms to manage impacts continue to be negotiated and established, the existing ability of SIDS to monitor and respond to loss and damage must be evaluated to determine gaps that must be addressed in a 1.5 °C or warmer world. This research utilizes interviews with UNFCCC climate change negotiators for SIDS and analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to assess the state of loss and damage management in SIDS. The research provides an assessment of loss and damage already being experienced in SIDS, the status of existing mechanisms to actively monitor and evaluate loss and damage, and the existence of policies and mechanisms in SIDS to address loss and damage. Three areas of concern appear to be common for SIDS: lack of data relating to loss and damage, gaps in financial assessments of loss and damage, and a lack of policies or mechanisms targeted at loss and damage. These issues appear to be most acute in relation to slow onset impacts. Cumulatively, these challenges may present difficulties in detection and attribution and in obtaining a holistic understanding of the extent and costs of loss and damage for SIDS.     

The influence of the development of temperate fruit tree species on the potential for their uptake of radionuclides

This paper reviews the published literature that describes the phenological development of above and below ground organs of temperate fruit trees (top fruit), particularly with respect to apple (Malus domestica). Critical information is presented which is considered appropriate in developing an understanding of the potential for top fruit species to take up radionuclide contaminants from the atmosphere and the soil. Information is cited on how climatic and edaphic factors influence the growth and development of temperate fruit trees, the phenological production of their leaf area and the development and growth of their fruit and hence the potential for foliar and fruit uptake of radionuclides from the atmosphere. The study also reports on the importance of the distribution and phenological development of roots in the soil and the potential for their uptake of radionuclides from the soil. The effects of above and below ground management procedures, within temperate fruit orchards, on potential radionuclide uptake are also considered. It is concluded that the potential for the uptake of radionuclides by temperate fruit tree species will depend on a number of phenological and physiological factors. For uptake from the soil these factors include; root distribution and density in the soil profile, seasonal changes in the production and distribution of roots, and the presence and amount of water in the soil. These factors are themselves influenced by rootstock type and its growth vigour, scion type and its growth vigour, tree age, spacing of trees in the orchard, orchard management practices (presence or absence of weeds or grass under the trees) and soil type and depth. Direct uptake by the shoot, however, will be influenced by the climatic conditions at the time of exposure and the presence of foliage. Deposition and uptake are likely to change with leaf area development and the ability of radionuclides to penetrate the cuticle of the leaf changes with seasonal development. Transport of radionuclides to the fruit may also depend on the time of season, as the importance of the xylem and phloem transport routes can change with the growth and development of the fruit.     

县域城镇空间结构优化重组研究——以河南省镇平县为例

优化县域城镇空间结构是科学决策、促进县域经济社会环境可持续发展的关键。基于河南省镇平县1990～2008年社会经济数据和ETM数据，利用城镇建成区面积扩展强度指数、城镇经济增长强度指数等方法，分析了镇平县域城镇空间结构现状特征、形成机理和优化趋势。研究发现：河南镇平县域城镇空间结构具有廊道效应明显、复合通道地带城镇建成区面积快速增长、城镇经济实力进一步增强、城镇生态环境效益较差等现状特征，其形成机理为边缘效应作用、交通道路促动、产业簇群支撑等，具有“廊道效应”进一步强化、“交通节点作用”更加突出、以镇平县城为副角的南阳都市区雏形显现、重点小城镇建设日益凸现等发展趋势，今后的优化重组必须科学规划县域城镇体系，积极培育县域增长核心，尽快形成特色产业簇群，进一步加强生态城镇建设。     

激励与约束如何影响农户生物农药施用行为——兼论约束措施的调节作用

农业的绿色发展依赖于农户生产行为的绿色化转变,这一转变不仅与农户自身、家庭等内在因素有关,还受外在因素的激励与约束。基于湖北省719户农户的调查数据,根据农户追求利益和损失厌恶的特征,将农户在生产过程中面对的外在激励与约束纳入一个框架,探讨了激励与约束措施对农户施用生物农药这一绿色生产行为的影响以及约束措施的调节作用。结果表明:(1)价格激励、技术培训、政策补贴的正向刺激和生产监管、处罚的反向规制均能对农户生物农药施用行为产生显著正向影响;(2)价格激励的影响效果最大,处罚约束次之,随后是技术培训、政策补贴,而生产监管的作用最小;(3)约束措施能在一定程度上调节激励措施对农户施用生物农药的影响,且在不同的激励与约束措施下,调节作用的方向不同,生产监管、处罚力度正向调节价格激励的作用,市场监管正向调节技术培训的作用,而生产监管却削弱了技术培训原有的效果。因此,在促进农户施用生物农药和绿色生产时,要做到激励与约束并重,并对激励与约束措施进行合理搭配,放大激励与约束的协同作用。     

蓄滞洪区可持续发展研究

本文分析了蓄滞洪区在防洪体系中的地位及其所面临的矛盾以及国内外蓄滞洪区管理和规划的研究现状和不足 ,指出可持续发展的治水观是蓄滞洪区防洪减灾与社会发展的必然选择 ;通过对蓄滞洪区复合系统的分析 ,探讨了区内人口、社会、经济、资源及防洪减灾之间的关系 ,建立了蓄滞洪区复合系统的概念模型 ,提出了蓄滞洪区可持续发展的定义并分析了其内涵。     

南水北调中线丹江口库区水环境现状

从丹江口库区的自然、气候概况、水量状况、水环境现状、水土流失等方面对丹江V口水库进行了分析。目前丹江口水库水质现状不容乐观，主要问题有：水土流失严重，森林覆盖率低，工业、农业污染严重，城镇、农村生活污水和养殖污水等大量排放，造成丹江口水库水质呈现中一富营养，并向富营养转化的趋势。要改善水库的水质现状，对工业污染坚持“预防为主”的原则，优化产业结构，全面实施污染物总量控制制度；对城镇、农村生活污水排放，加强城镇基础设施建设，控制城镇生活污染，进行城市生态建设；对养殖污水排放，制定合理的养殖计划，实施生态养殖；对农业污染，在库区要大力推进自然保护区、生态示范区、生态功能保护区和环境保护的建设，以小流域综合治理为基础，全面改善生态与环境，全面保护南水北调中线水源地丹江口水库水质。     

湖南省区域经济差异及时空格局特征

区域经济差异是一种客观存在的经济与社会现象,适度的差异对宏观经济发展有积极的推动作用,但差异过大不仅对区域社会经济发展产生危害,而且关系到社会的稳定和可持续发展。20世纪90年代以来,作为全国,也是中部地区的农业大省,湖南省经济发展总体水平迅速提升,但省域内区域经济差异也发生了显著的变化。以计量统计为基础,分析了湖南省区域经济差异变化的时间特征,并采用因子分析法和GIS技术,通过建立综合评价指标体系,探讨了湖南区域经济差异的空间格局特征。在此基础上,分析了区域差异的成因,并提出了协调湖南省区域经济发展的对策建议。     

基于GIS技术的洪水淹没计算分析系统建立与应用

洪水淹没范围的计算分析是防汛救灾管理和灾害损失评估的核心任务,而利用高新技术对洪水进行监测管理、计算分析和灾害损失评估,一直是防汛应急管理工作的薄弱环节。为此,探讨防洪流域洪水淹没计算分析系统的解决方案和实现方法,对应用系统的软硬件环境、体系结构、系统内容、系统功能和技术特点等进行详细说明,采用较为成熟的模型技术和计算机手段,研究建立基于GIS技术的洪水淹没计算分析系统,实现多源数据管理、洪水演进模拟、淹没范围计算和灾害损失评估等功能,并在海子水库防汛救灾管理工作中运行良好。应用结果表明：所采用的技术方法和分析模型能准确地计算模拟洪水淹没范围;洪水淹没面积的计算精度以及灾害评估和预测分析的准确性主要取决于空间数据精度的优劣和相关统计数据的完备程度。     

快速工业化区域建设用地问题与制度优化研究——以佛山市南海区为例

快速工业化区域是工业化快速发展、工业化水平迅速提升、经济社会结构急剧变化的新兴地域类型。普遍存在着建设用地总量急剧扩张、空间无序分散、城乡缺乏统筹等问题。本文从佛山市南海区典型案例入手，运用新制度经济学原理。归纳和解析了快速工业化区域城乡建设用地的主要问题，认为双二元管理体制、农村土地产权不完善、城乡土地市场发育不平衡和部门规划不协调等是建设用地发展的主要体制性障碍因素，并从管理、产权、市场、规划等方面系统提出相应的制度优化对策。     

中国灾害性对流天气日数的时空变化特征

采用1961~2016年中国2 481站的冰雹、大风、雷暴和闪电日数数据,利用多种数理统计方法,分析了中国4种灾害性对流天气日数时空分布特征、周期变化规律和气候突变特征。结果表明：（1）在时间上,中国4种灾害性对流天气日数呈减少趋势,且冰雹和雷暴日数具有“先增 后减”的分段变化特征。中国冰雹、大风、雷暴和闪电日数分别具有3~5 a、2~3 a、1~2 a和1~4 a左右的振荡周期,且冰雹和雷暴日数分别于2002和1992年发生突变。（2）在空间上,青藏高原 四川西部地区是冰雹、大风和雷暴日数的高值分布区。同时长江以南地区也是雷暴日数的高值分布区。华南及其同纬度的西南地区是闪电日数的高值分布区。（3）在趋势上,中国冰雹日数主要在青藏高原地区呈减少趋势。大风日数变化趋势呈东部减少 中部不变 西部增减镶嵌的空间格局。雷暴日数在西藏、华北、重庆、浙江和黑龙江西北部呈增加趋势。中国闪电日数变化趋势在长江以南地区减少明显。（4）在波动上,中国冰雹日数在东南地区波动较大,大风日数在胡焕庸线以东波动较大。中国雷暴日数波动特征呈西北高 东南低的空间格局,闪电日数除在新疆北部和华南地区波动动较小外,其它地区波动相对较大。     

State simplification, heterogeneous causes of vegetation fires and implications on local haze management: case study in Thailand

The article studies the nature of current policy and management practice in Thailand on vegetation burnings and haze pollution and examines how these take into account heterogeneity and complexity of local conditions and causal factors on the ground. Chang Mai province’s recent haze episodes are used as case study. The country’s policy regime on vegetation burning and haze pollution is characterized as command-and-control and highly regulatory. Authors argue that haze problem is framed by the central and provincial government as a purely an administrative task of control and penalizing perpetrators of fire. This fails to take into account the heterogeneity and complexity of local conditions and drivers of burning occurrences, which in Chang Mai involves a variety of widely diffused forest and farming-based livelihood activities, such as hunting and forest product gathering, swidden farming, and burning of agricultural residues in rice cultivation. This state simplification in policy combines well with and is further reinforced by a centralized, top-down, and institutional landscape and functioning of government in decision-making, enabling the policy to cascade down to the province, districts, and sub-districts basically unaltered. Further, traditional administrative separatism between ministries and their provincial counterparts undermines the possibility of area-wide planning and integration of responses. The authors’ recommend a major policy shift, among others, including components of using local research on causal factors as tool for planning and policy, instituting incentives and reward systems for would-be fire igniters, area-wide local-transboundary approach, and strengthening autonomy of local government bodies. Authors have used documents review, secondary sources, and key informant interviews.     

资源环境承载力研究进展:基于地理学综合研究的视角

资源环境承载力作为连接社会系统、环境系统与经济系统之间的纽带,是协调人口、资源与环境相互联系、又彼此相对独立的矛盾统一体的关键所在。资源环境承载力是地理学综合研究的重要方向。综合性与区域性、人地关系是支撑其发展的重要理论框架。本文对国内外资源环境承载力的研究进展、存在问题和发展趋势进行了详尽的综述。国内外资源环境承载力研究经近百年发展,从最初的单一的土地资源承载力、水资源承载力甚至农业资源承载力发展到资源承载力、环境承载力以及生态环境承载力。近几十年,生态足迹、虚拟水、能值分析等综合研究理论与方法兴起,极大地推动了资源环境承载力研究的定量化和模式化。目前,资源环境承载力的研究面临着一系列新的要求和挑战。主要表现在:资源环境承载力理论基础、学科范式和方法体系尚需继续完善;若干关键科学问题(包括:尺度效应、关键阈值、变化机制等)亟待解答;基础研究需要与实践应用加强联系等等。在此基础上,本文主张从地理学综合视角重新审视资源环境承载力研究的理论框架和今后研究的优先主题。通过建构资源环境承载力的地理学综合研究范式,能够拓展资源环境承载力的理论深度和广度,有助于提升资源环境承载力在国民经济社会发展中的应用水平。本研究提出未来相关研究应围绕以下优先主题开展:(1)资源环境承载力关键要素的变化及驱动机制;(2)资源环境承载力综合评价的理论与方法;(3)资源环境承载力的动态监测与预警;(4)基于资源环境承载力的国土功能区划与管控;(5)重点区域的资源环境承载力的恢复与提升途径。     

深圳市经济与环境协调发展的演进分析

经济与环境的协调发展是实现可持续发展的重要途径。以深圳地区为例。通过指标体系和评价基础构建、评价方法论证及实证研究等环节。对深圳市过去15年社会经济子系绫和资源环境子系统的发展水平及其协调发展程度的演进特征进行了研究。结果表明，协调性评价可以有效的揭示各种关键性发展问题。为相关政策制定提供科学依据；深圳市目前的社会经济发展和资源环境利用与保护工作均相对走在了全国的前列。基本满足了生态市建设的要求；今后，激活高端服务业发展步伐。采取更为严格的资源环境标准约束社会经济发展和城市建设。将成为实现地区可持续发展的主要任务。     

长江口南港近期的演变及其与重大工程之间的关系

长江口为典型的多级分汊中等潮汐河口,口门宽阔、径潮流强劲、泥沙运动复杂、河槽交替多变,给河口综合治理带来困难。长江口各分流汊道演变过程中,此消彼长是永恒的主旋律,其产生、发展、扭曲、萎缩、消亡具有周期性演变规律。为发挥长江黄金水道的优势,促进国民经济发展,长江口先后实施了深水航道治理工程、南北港分流口处的新浏河沙护滩和南沙头通道限流工程,以及中央沙促淤圈围工程和青草沙水源地工程等,南北港和南北槽分流口河段得到有效控制,对长江口未来的演变产生深远影响。基于南北港分流口以下丰富的地形、水文现场资料,对近年来南港地形演变进行了深入分析,在肯定工程稳定河势的同时,认为目前南北港分流口以下,尚存在南港主流偏离南岸致使发生近岸淤积,以及瑞丰沙中下段沙体刷深导致水流分散,不利于河势稳定等问题。并探讨了长江口“先下后上”治理模式的优缺点,建议在长江口河势尚未发生较大变化时,站在整体的高度,综合考虑河势、航道、水土资源、防洪潮及排灌、生态环境保护等诸多因素,尽快实施长江口综合整治工程。