Air-mediated pollen flow from genetically modified to conventional crops.

Tools for estimating pollen dispersal and the resulting gene flow are necessary to assess the risk of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) to conventional fields, and to quantify the effectiveness of measures that may prevent such gene flow. A mechanistic simulation model is presented and used to simulate pollen dispersal by wind in different agricultural scenarios over realistic pollination periods. The relative importance of landscape-related variables such as isolation distance, topography, spatial configuration of the fields, GM field size and barrier, and environmental variation are examined in order to find ways to minimize gene flow and to detect possible risk factors. The simulations demonstrated a large variation in pollen dispersal and in the predicted amount of contamination between different pollination periods. This was largely due to variation in vertical wind. As this variation in wind conditions is difficult to control through management measures, it should be carefully considered when estimating the risk of gene flow from GM crops. On average, the predicted level of gene flow decreased with increasing isolation distance and with increasing depth of the conventional field, and increased with increasing GM field size. Therefore, at a national scale and over the long term these landscape properties should be accounted for when setting regulations for controlling gene flow. However, at the level of an individual field the level of gene flow may be dominated by uncontrollable variation. Due to the sensitivity of pollen dispersal to the wind, we conclude that gene flow cannot be summarized only by the mean contamination; information about the frequency of extreme events should also be considered. The modeling approach described in this paper offers a way to predict and compare pollen dispersal and gene flow in varying environmental conditions, and to assess the effectiveness of different management measures.     

Maximum feasible distance of windborne cross-pollination in Brassica napus: A ‘mass budget’ model

A theory of gene dispersal by wind pollination can make an important contribution to understanding the viability and evolution of important plant groups in the Earth's changing landscape and it can be applied to evaluate concerns about the spread of engineered genes from genetically modified (GM) crops into conventional varieties via windborne pollen. Here, we present a model of cross-pollination between plant populations due to the wind. We perform a ‘mass budget’ of pollen by accounting for the number of pollen grains from release in the source population, dispersal from the source to the sink population by the wind, and deposition on receptive surfaces in the sink population. Our model can be parameterised for any wind-pollinated species, but we apply it to Brassica napus (oilseed rape or canola) to investigate the threat posed by wind pollination to GM confinement in agriculture. Specifically, we calculate the maximum feasible distance at which a particular level of windborne gene dispersal could be attained. This is equivalent to the separation distance between populations or fields required to achieve a given threshold of gene dispersal or adventitious GM presence. As required, model predictions of the upper bounds on levels of wind-mediated gene dispersal exceed observations from a wide range of published studies. For a level of gene dispersal below 0.9%, which is the EU threshold for GM adventitious presence, we predict that the maximum feasible distance for agricultural fields of B. napus is 1000 m, regardless of field shape and direction of prevailing winds. For fields closer than 1000 m, our model results do not necessarily imply that the 0.9% threshold is likely to be breached, because in this instance we have conservatively set the values of parameters where current knowledge is limited. We also predict that gene dispersal is reduced by 50% when the lag in peak flowering between the source and sink populations is 13 days, and reduced by 90% when the lag is 24 days. We identify further measurements necessary to improve the accuracy of the model predictions.     

Effect of pollinator abundance on self-fertilization and gene flow: application to GM Canola.

Cross-pollination from fields of transgenic crops is of great public concern. Although cross-pollination in commercial canola (Brassica napus) fields has been empirically measured, field trials are expensive and do not identify the causes of cross-pollination. Therefore, theoretical models can be valuable because they can provide estimates of cross-pollination at any given site and time. We present a general analytical model of field-to-field gene flow due to the following competing mechanisms: the wind, bees, and autonomous pollination. We parameterize the model for the particular case of field-to-field cross-pollination of genetically modified (GM) canola via the wind and via bumble bees (Bombus spp.) and honey bees (Apis mellifera). We make extensive use of the large data set of bee densities collected during the recent U.K. Farm Scale Evaluations. We predict that canola approaches almost full seed set without pollinators and that autonomous pollination is responsible for > or = 25% of seed set, irrespective of pollinator abundance. We do not predict the relative contribution of bees vs. the wind in landscape-scale gene flow in canola. However, under model assumptions, we predict that the maximum field-to-field gene flow due to bumble bees is 0.04% and 0.13% below the current EU limit for adventitious GM presence for winter- and spring-sown canola, respectively. We predict that gene flow due to bees is approximately 3.1 times higher at 20% compared to 100% male-fertility, and due to the wind, 1.3 times higher at 20% compared to 100% male-fertility, for both winter- and spring-sown canola. Bumble bee-mediated gene flow is approximately 2.7 times higher and wind-mediated gene flow approximately 1.7 times lower in spring-sown than in winter-sown canola, regardless of the degree of male-sterility. The model of cross-pollination due to the wind most closely predicted three previously published observations: field-to-field gene flow is low; gene flow increases with the proportion of plants that are male-sterile; and gene flow is higher in winter- than in spring-sown canola. Our results therefore suggest that the wind, not bees, is the main vector of long-distance gene flow in canola.     

Spontaneous Interspecific Hybridization and Patterns of Pollen Dispersal in Ex Situ Populations of a Tree Species (Sinojackia xylocarpa) that is Extinct in the Wild

Abstract:  For endangered plants interspecific hybridization occurring in ex situ collections may lead to failure of reintroduction actions. We used Sinojackia xylocarpa , a well documented Chinese endemic species that is extinct in the wild, as a model case to address this concern. We used paternity analyses to assess the spontaneous hybridization and patterns of pollen flow between S. xylocarpa and its congener species, S. rehderiana , in conserved populations in Wuhan Botanic Garden. Interspecific hybridization events were detected in seven out of eight maternal trees of S. xylocarpa , and an average of 32.7% seeds collected from maternal trees of S. xylocarpa were hybrids. The paternity of 93 out of 249 seedlings from S. xylocarpa assigned to S. rehderiana provided convincing evidence that spontaneous interspecific hybridization occurred extensively in the living garden collection we studied. Different patterns of pollen dispersal (predominantly short-distance vs. long-distance pollination) were observed between intra- and interspecific hybridization events in the garden. Pollen dispersal within the ex situ populations was not restricted by distance, as evidenced by a lack of significant correlations between the average effective pollen dispersal distance (δ) and the geographic distances (d1 and d2) between maternal and paternal trees. The interspecific pollen-dispersal distance ranged from 10 to 620.1 m (mean 294.4 m). Such extensive hybridization in ex situ collections could jeopardize the genetic integrity of endangered species and irrevocably contaminate the gene pool if such hybrids are used for reintroduction and restoration. We recommend strongly that measures be taken to minimize the genetic risks of this kind of hybridization, including establishing buffer zones in ex situ collections, manipulating flowering phenology, testing seed lots before use in reintroduction programs, and controlling pollination for seed purity.     

Modelling the outcrossing between genetically modified and conventional maize with equation discovery

Many studies explore the feasibility of co-existence between genetically modified (GM) and conventional (non-GM) crops. An important research topic in these studies is the process of outcrossing, i.e., the process of gene flow via pollen flow from GM to non-GM crops. In this paper, we address a new modelling approach to define the environmentally driven processes of outcrossing for maize from existing empirical datasets. In particular, we use equation discovery methodology that combines background knowledge and empirical data from several studies. We induce models that predict the degree of outcrossing rate between the donor (GM) and the recipient (non-GM) maize field from the distance between the fields and the local wind characteristics (speed, direction and duration). This results in highly accurate models, for which both variables (distance and wind) are essential and of roughly equal importance.     

Oviposition height increases parasitism success by the robber fly Mallophora ruficauda (Diptera: Asilidae)

For parasitoids, host finding is a central problem that has been solved through a variety of behavioural mechanisms. Among species in which females do not make direct contact with hosts, as is the case for many dipteran parasitoids, eggs must be laid in an appropriate part of the host habitat. The asilid fly Mallophora ruficauda lays eggs in clusters on tall vegetation. Upon eclosion, pollen-sized larvae fall and parasitize soil-dwelling scarab beetle larvae. We hypothesized that wind dissemination of M. ruficauda larvae is important in the host-finding process and that females lay eggs at heights that maximize parasitism of its concealed host. Through numerical and analytical models resembling those used to describe seed and pollen wind dispersal, we estimated an optimal oviposition height in the 1.25- to 1.50-m range above the ground. Our models take into account host distribution, plant availability and the range over which parasitic larvae search for hosts. Supporting our findings, we found that the results of the models match heights at which egg clusters of M. ruficauda are found in the field. Generally, work on facilitation of host finding using plants focuses on plants as indicators of host presence. We present a case where plants are used in a different way, as a means of offspring dispersal. For parasitoids that carry out host searching at immature stages rather than as adults, plants are part of a dissemination mechanism of larvae that, as with minute seeds, uses wind and a set of simple rules of physics to increase offspring success.     

Cougar Dispersal Patterns, Metapopulation Dynamics, and Conservation

Abstract: We examined cougar (   Puma concolor ) dispersal, emigration, and immigration in the San Andres Mountains, New Mexico, from 1985 to 1995 to quantify the effects of dispersal on the local population and surrounding subpopulations. We captured, tagged, and radio-collared animals to detect the arrival of new immigrants and dispersal characteristics of progeny. We found that cougars in southern New Mexico exhibited a metapopulation structure in which cougar subpopulations were separated by expanses of noncougar habitat and linked by dispersers. Of 43 progeny (n = 20 males , 23 females ) studied after independence, only 13 females exhibited philopatric behavior. Males dispersed significantly farther than females, were more likely to traverse large expanses of noncougar habitat, and were probably most responsible for nuclear gene flow between habitat patches. We estimated that an average of 8.5 progeny (i.e., cougars born in the study area) successfully emigrated from and 4.3 cougars successfully immigrated to the San Andres Mountains each year. Concurrently, an average of 4.1 progeny were recruited into the San Andres cougar population. Protected cougar subpopulations can contribute to metapopulation persistence by supplying immigrants to surrounding subpopulations that are affected by fragmentation or offtake by humans. Cougar population dynamics and dispersal behavior dictate that cougar management and conservation should be considered on a regional scale.     

Incorporating animal behavior into seed dispersal models: implications for seed shadows

Seed dispersal fundamentally influences plant population and community dynamics but is difficult to quantify directly. Consequently, models are frequently used to describe the seed shadow (the seed deposition pattern of a plant population). For vertebrate-dispersed plants, animal behavior is known to influence seed shadows but is poorly integrated in seed dispersal models. Here, we illustrate a modeling approach that incorporates animal behavior and develop a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model that predicts the seed shadow for a primate-dispersed tree species (Virola calophylla, Myristicaceae) at the forest stand scale. The model was parameterized from field-collected data on fruit production and seed dispersal, behaviors and movement patterns of the key disperser, the spider monkey (Ateles paniscus), densities of dispersed and non-dispersed seeds, and direct estimates of seed dispersal distances. Our model demonstrated that the spatial scale of dispersal for this V. calophylla population was large, as spider monkeys routinely dispersed seeds >100 m, a commonly used threshold for long-distance dispersal. The simulated seed shadow was heterogeneous, with high spatial variance in seed density resulting largely from behaviors and movement patterns of spider monkeys that aggregated seeds (dispersal at their sleeping sites) and that scattered seeds (dispersal during diurnal foraging and resting). The single-distribution dispersal kernels frequently used to model dispersal substantially underestimated this variance and poorly fit the simulated seed-dispersal curve, primarily because of its multimodality, and a mixture distribution always fit the simulated dispersal curve better. Both seed shadow heterogeneity and dispersal curve multimodality arose directly from these different dispersal processes generated by spider monkeys. Compared to models that did not account for disperser behavior, our modeling approach improved prediction of the seed shadow of this V. calophylla population. An important function of seed dispersal models is to use the seed shadows they predict to estimate components of plant demography, particularly seedling population dynamics and distributions. Our model demonstrated that improved seed shadow prediction for animal-dispersed plants can be accomplished by incorporating spatially explicit information on disperser behavior and movements, using scales large enough to capture routine long-distance dispersal, and using dispersal kernels, such as mixture distributions, that account for spatially aggregated dispersal.     

Regionalisation of flora elements in field boundaries sensitive to hybridisation with genetically modified oilseed rape

Background, aim, and scope Gene flow via pollen dispersal to neighbouring non-genetically modified (GM) and organic fields or to biotopes containing the same crop species and/or their wild relatives are among the most debated potential environmental risks of GM crops. These crosses permit ingression of GM traits and may produce viable progeny. Current GM crop monitoring plans and concepts have not considered this a critical issue. In the present study, we develop a methodology for the regionalisation of the hybridisation risk of GM oilseed rape (OSR) (Brassica napus L.) with respect to related hybridisation partners (both OSR and related species) as well as neighbouring arable fields and biotopes. This methodology should constitute an important component of future spatial GM crop monitoring designs. Materials and methods A vegetation database containing occurrence frequencies of OSR crossing partners in Brandenburg state was analysed, and literature surveys were performed on OSR outcrossing proofs with regard to different wild species, the viability of progeny and the potential establishment of crosses. We aggregated detailed biotope maps for the entire Brandenburg state in order to differentiate the nine main biotope groups relevant as habitats for OSR and hybridising Brassicaceae. We determined the types and areas of biotopes neighbouring all arable fields with an outside buffer of 50?m, and then ascertained whether the biotope composition outside the buffers was significantly different from that of the buffers. We then overlayed our buffering results with an ecoregion map of Brandenburg to upscale our results to larger regions. Results Brassica rapa presented the highest potential for hybridisation, reproduction and persistence in this environment, but Raphanus raphanistrum, Brassica oleracea, Hirschfeldia incana, Sinapis arvensis and Diplotaxis muralis are also significant potential crossing partners for OSR. The highest average frequency of species occurring in biotopes applies to arable lands, settlements and industrial areas, disturbed areas, road verges and gardens, which together cover 84.2?% of the total area and 74.6?% of the neighbouring biotopes. Related species occurring most often in Brandenburg are Descurainia sophia, feral OSR, Sinapis arvensis, Diplotaxis tenuifolia and Diplotaxis muralis. All biotopes relevant to OSR-related species are present in all Brandenburg ecoregions, but there are differences in the proportion of each biotope, especially hedgerows, arable land, gardens and road verges. The Uckermark and Oder valley can be considered slightly more critical. Discussion Hybridisation and persistence of GM OSR depends on (a) the related species’ potential to hybridise and produce viable progeny, (b) the frequency of hybridisation partners at different biotope types, and (c) the frequency of directly neighbouring arable fields with sensitive biotopes. Integration of these factors gives the following rank order of hybridisation risks for different biotopes in the agro-environment: disturbed areas > arable land > road verges > settlements and industrial areas > gardens. Extrapolation of local relevée and biotope results to larger areas such as the Brandenburg state was shown to be feasible, and may also be done nationwide and EU-wide with suitable biotope datasets. Conclusions Cultivation of GM OSR in Brandenburg carries a considerable potential of hybridisation with related species and feral OSR in biotopes neighbouring arable fields. The methodology presented here is suitable to link spatially limited but highly detailed datasets on the occurrence of potential hybridisation partners for GM OSR with regional datasets and to extrapolate hybridisation risks, and therefore could serve as a monitoring instrument. Recommendations and perspectives We suggest that populations of related species and the potential spread of GM traits should be monitored using a targeted approach. While further standardisation will be required, this methodology should be included as a regular component of GM crop monitoring.     

Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.     

Complex genetic patterns and a phylogeographic disjunction among New Zealand mud snails Zeacumantus subcarinatus and Z. lutulentus

The comparative analysis of genetic structure and phylogeography of marine species can reveal the relative importance of common biogeographic barriers and species-specific evolutionary histories. In the present study, mitochondrial COI sequences from a total of 724 individuals collected from 38 localities throughout New Zealand during 2006 and 2007 were used to examine the genetic structure and demographic histories of the intertidal gastropods Zeacumantus subcarinatus and Zeacumantus lutulentus. For both species, results revealed isolation of populations located along the northern South Island and southern and western North Island, and extensive genetic structure throughout the remainder of their ranges. Despite this, long-distance dispersal and secondary admixture of divergent haplotypes was evident, especially for the widespread Z. subcarinatus. These findings reveal the importance of common barriers to gene flow and highlight how the interaction of inherent dispersal limitations of direct-developing marine organisms and periodic long-distance movements can produce complex genetic patterns.     

Urban Plants as Genetic Reservoirs or Threats to the Integrity of Bushland Plant Populations

Abstract:  Remnant plants in urban fringes and native plants in gardens have the potential to contribute to the conservation of threatened plants by increasing genetic diversity, effective size of populations, and levels of genetic connectedness. But they also pose a threat through the disruption of locally adapted gene pools. At Hyams Beach, New South Wales, Australia, four bushland stands of the rare shrub, Grevillea macleayana McGillivray, surround an urban area containing remnant and cultivated specimens of this species. Numbers of inflorescences per plant, fruits per plant, and visits by pollinators were similar for plants in urban gardens and bushland. Urban plants represented a substantial but complex genetic resource, displaying more genetic diversity than bushland plants judged by H_e , numbers of alleles per locus, and number of private alleles. Of 27 private alleles in urban plants, 17 occurred in a set of 19 exotic plants. Excluding the exotic plants, all five stands displayed a moderate differentiation ( F_ST = 0.14 ± 0.02), although the urban remnants clustered with two of the bushland stands. These patterns may be explained by high levels of selfing and inbreeding in this species and by long-distance dispersal (several seeds in the urban stand were fathered by plants in other stands). Genetic leakage (gene flow) from exotic plants to 321 seeds on surrounding remnant or bushland plants has not occurred. Our results demonstrate the conservation value of this group of urban plants, which are viable, productive, genetically diverse, and interconnected with bushland plants. Gene flow has apparently not yet led to genetic contamination of bushland populations, but high levels of inbreeding would make this a rare event and difficult to detect. Remnant plants in urban gardens could successfully contribute to recovery plans for endangered and vulnerable species.     

Nonrandom movement behavior at habitat boundaries in two butterfly species: implications for dispersal

We observed meadow brown (Maniola jurtina) and gatekeeper (Pyronia tithonus) butterflies at habitat boundaries and observed spontaneous movements out of suitable habitat in order to investigate such movements in relation to dispersal. We found that butterflies of both species were aware of the position of a highly permeable habitat boundary without needing to cross it. Nevertheless, a considerable proportion of butterflies close to the boundary left their habitat (25-43%). Butterflies that crossed the boundary, and moved substantial distances into unsuitable habitat (up to 350 m in M. jurtina and 70 m in P. tithonus), usually returned to their original habitat patch (98-100%). Movement trajectories, at least in M. jurtina, were significantly different from, and more directed and systematic than, a correlated random walk. Approximately 70-80% of spontaneous movements into unsuitable habitat in both species were "foray" loops comparable to those described in mammals and birds. We conclude that, since migrants seemed to have considerable control over leaving their patch and over their subsequent movement trajectories, chance encounter rates with habitat boundaries, and indeed habitat leaving rates, might be less crucial in determining dispersal rates than is usually assumed. In addition, random dispersal trajectories should not be taken for granted in population or evolution models.     

Bridging the gap between ecophysiological and genetic knowledge to assess the adaptive potential of European beech

In this study we aimed to combine knowledge of the ecophysiology and genetics of European beech to assess the potential of this species to adapt to environmental change. Therefore, we performed field and experimental studies on the genetic and ecophysiological functioning of beech. This information was integrated through a coupled genetic–ecophysiological model for individual trees that was parameterized with information derived from our own studies or from the literature. Using the model, we evaluated the adaptive response of beech stands in two ways: firstly, through sensitivity analyses (of initial genetic diversity, pollen dispersal distance, heritability of selected phenotypic traits, and forest management, representing disturbances) and secondly, through the evaluation of the responses of phenotypic traits and their genetic diversity to four management regimes applied to 10 study plots distributed over Western Europe. The model results indicate that the interval between recruitment events strongly affects the rate of adaptive response, because selection is most severe during the early stages of forest development. Forest management regimes largely determine recruitment intervals and thereby the potential for adaptive responses. Forest management regimes also determine the number of mother trees that contribute to the next generation and thereby the genetic variation that is maintained. Consequently, undisturbed forests maintain the largest amount of genetic variation, as recruitment intervals approach the longevity of trees and many mother trees contribute to the next generation. However, undisturbed forests have the slowest adaptive response, for the same reasons.Gene flow through pollen dispersal may compensate for the loss in genetic diversity brought about by selection. The sensitivity analysis showed that the total genetic diversity of a 2 ha stand is not affected by gene flow if the pollen distance distribution is varied from highly left-skewed to almost flat. However, a stand with a prevailing short-distance gene flow has a more pronounced spatial genetic structure than stands with equal short- and long-distance gene flows. The build-up of a spatial genetic structure is also strongly determined by the recruitment interval. Overall, the modelling results indicate that European beech has high adaptive potential to environmental change if recruitment intervals are short and many mother trees contribute to the next generation.The findings have two implications for modelling studies on the impacts of climate change on forests. Firstly: it cannot be taken for granted that parameter values remain constant over a time horizon of even a few generations – this is particularly important for threshold values subject to strong selection, like budburst, frost hardiness, drought tolerance, as used in species area models. Secondly: forest management should be taken into account in future assessments, as management affects the rate of adaptive response and thereby the response on trees and forests to environmental change, and because few forests are unmanaged. We conclude that a coupled ecophysiological and quantitative genetic tree model is a useful tool for such studies.     

Dispersal of seeds by the tropical sea breeze

Given the dependence of most wind-pollinated and wind-dispersed species on low relative humidity (RH) for abscission, and the minimization of RH in the early afternoon, there ought to be a marked directional bias in seed dispersal at sites with a strong local diurnal circulation. We filmed the abscission of seeds of five wind-dispersed tropical species near the coast of Mexico (Jalisco). We found that (1) most abscission occurred during the period from 10:00 to 17:00 hours; (2) there was a strong bias for landward dispersal due to the midday sea breeze; (3) the little nocturnal dispersal that occurred was toward the sea (due to the night land breeze); (4) there was no abscission in the absence of wind (i.e., indoors) except for one species; and (5) holding relative humidity constant, the proportion of seeds diurnally abscising is strongly correlated with horizontal wind speed. We predict that a similar bias (this time for upslope dispersal) for xerochastic dispersal will occur in complex terrain. We conclude that in coastal and mountainous terrain, dispersal models (and inverse modeling efforts) must include a directionality term.     

Birth season testosterone levels in male Verreaux’s sifaka, Propithecus verreauxi: insights into socio-demographic factors mediating seasonal testicular function

Previous research suggests that although reproduction and testicular function in wild sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi) are highly seasonal, birth season elevations in fecal testosterone (T) in transferring males indicate that social factors may be as important as climatic factors in regulating reproductive function in sifaka. This paper examines the relationship of male dispersal and social status to the patterning of birth season aggression and testicular function in P. verreauxi at Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar. Behavioral and hormonal data were collected from a total of 38 adult males, 15 residing in seven stable groups and 23 living in eight unstable groups, yielding 186 fecal samples and 493 focal animal hours of observation. The results suggest that birth season elevations in fecal testosterone are the consequence of social disruption resulting from male movements between groups and the particular responses of individual males to dispersal events. Hormonal responses to dispersal events appear to precede behavioral responses and occasionally register reactions not concomitantly evident in the behavioral response, and may be predictive of future events. Hormonal reactions occurred primarily in resident alpha males, suggesting that they differ in their assessment of destabilizing influences, perhaps due to different reproductive opportunities and/or investment. These findings are important for the new insights they provide into the role of androgens in mediating male dispersal, life history, and reproductive strategies, and suggest that investigations of androgen-behavior interactions in free-ranging populations can be a powerful new tool for assessing the contextual and motivational basis of social behavior. Received: 22 November 1999 / Revised: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 15 October 2000     

Identifying key life-traits for the dynamics and gene flow in a weedy crop relative: Sensitivity analysis of the GeneSys simulation model for weed beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. vulgaris)

The benefits of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) varieties stem from their presumed ability to improve weed control and reduce its cost, particularly targeting weed beet, a harmful annual weedy form of the genus Beta (i.e. B. vulgaris ssp. vulgaris) frequent in sugar beet fields. As weed beet is totally interfertile with sugar beet, it is thus likely to inherit the herbicide-tolerance transgene through pollen-mediated gene flow. Hence, the foreseeable advent of HT weed beet populations is a serious threat to the sustainability of GM sugar beet cropping systems. For studying and quantifying the long-term effects of cropping system components (crop succession and cultivation techniques) on weed beet population dynamics and gene flow, we developed a biophysical process-based model called GeneSys-Beet in a previous study. In the present paper, the model was employed to identify and rank the weed life-traits as function of their effect on weed beet densities and genotypes, using a global sensitivity analysis to model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations with simultaneous randomization of all life-trait parameters were carried out in three cropping systems contrasting for their risk for infestation by HT weed beets. Simulated weed plants and bolters (i.e. beet plants with flowering and seed-producing stems) were then analysed with regression models as a function of model parameters to rank processes and life-traits and quantify their effects. Key parameters were those determining the timing and success of growth, development, seed maturation and the physiological end of seed production. Timing parameters were usually more important than success parameters, showing for instance that optimal timing of weed management operations is more important than its exact efficacy. The ranking of life-traits though depended on the cropping system and, to a lesser extent, on the target variable (i.e. GM weeds vs. total weed population). For instance, post-emergence parameters were crucial in rotations with frequent sugar beet crops whereas pre-emergence parameters were most important when sugar beet was rare. In the rotations with frequent sugar beet and insufficient weed control, interactions between traits were small, indicating diverse populations with contrasted traits could prosper. Conversely, when sugar beet was rare and weed control optimal, traits had little impact individually, indicating that a small number of optimal combinations of traits would be successful. Based on the analysis of sugar beet parameters and genetic traits, advice for the future selection of sugar beet varieties was also given. In climatic conditions similar to those used here, the priority should be given to limiting the presence of hybrid seeds in seed lots rather than decreasing varietal sensitivity to vernalization.     

Auswahl repräsentativer Standorte zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von gentechnisch veränderten Pflanzen in Nord-Deutschland

Goal and Scope

The use of genetically modified plants (GMP) in agriculture is increasing rapidly. While GMP in North and South America are already established an extensive cultivation in Germany is yet to come. Risk assessment on possible effects of released GMP are mainly based on empirical studies with a small spatial extent (laboratories, small-scale field trials). The joint research project ‘Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified rape (GenEERA)’ aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) by the use of individual based models. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rapefields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to landscapes.

Data and Methods

The statistically founded selection of modelling sites was performed by a compilation of available indicators within a GIS environment which are supposed to be important for the dispersal and the persistence of oilseed rape. Meteorological data on precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) collected at up to 1,200 monitoring sites from 1961–1990 were as well as data on wind conditions (W) aggregated multivariate-statistically by Ward cluster analysis. An ecoregionalisation was used for characterising Northern Germany ecologically. Phenological data on the start of the oil seed rape bloom differentiated in the monitoring periods 1961–1990 and 1991–1999, respectively, were regionalised by performing variogram analysis and kriging interpolation. These maps were used to select appropriate Landsat images to identify rape fields by remote sensing algorithms as well as to define the respective flowering periods for individual based modelling.

Results

The separately generated P-T-S-W-Cluster were aggregated to four homogenic climatic regions. In combination with agricultural clusters defining typical landuse patterns (crop rotation, cultivation management) eight model regions were derived which describe the climatic and agronomic variations in Northern Germany. For each of these regions a representative monitoring site was selected serving for individual based modelling. At last, the modelling results were extrapolated back to the model regions applying corresponding GIS queries.

Discussion

The generated climatic regions reflect the transition of marine climate at the North Sea to continental climate in Northeast Germany. The shift in flowering of oil seed rape coincides with other studies on phenological changes of agricultural crops and wild plants.

Conclusions

Due to the huge calculation efforts and the lack of adequate land registers it was not possible to simulate the potential dispersal of GM oil seed rape at farm scale. Thus, generalisations were used to describe the variations of relevant ecological drivers affecting the dispersal of GMP. It could be shown that the aggregation of those factors to homogenic climatic regions was a successful approximation.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Due to the limited empirical data base it is necessary to validate and substantiate the modelling results by a GMP monitoring. The EU Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release of genetically modified organisms into the environment stipulates assessment of direct and indirect effects of GMP on humans and the environment by case-specific monitoring and general surveillance. It should be realised as soon as possible, since the release and the cultivation of GMP in Germany have been started, already. The monitoring should be complemented by the implementation of a web-based geoinformation system (WebGIS) which enables access to relevant geodata and monitoring data and assists in analysing possible GMP impacts.     

Historical demography and contemporary spatial genetic structure of an estuarine crab in the northeast Pacific (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hemigrapsus oregonensis</Emphasis>)

Discrete estuary subpopulations of the mud crab Hemigrapsus oregonensis (Dana, 1851) are connected via larval dispersal. Sequence variation at the mtDNA COI locus was examined in eight populations sampled in 2001–2002 from central California through northern Oregon in the northeast Pacific (36.6–45.8°N) to infer patterns of dispersal and historical connectivity in the region. Strong evidence for persistence since the mid-Pleistocene, with no range truncation resulting from southward shifting temperature isoclines, was provided by a phylogeographic pattern of haplotypes of an older clade distributed throughout the sampled range. A recently derived clade became widespread only north of Cape Blanco after the last glacial maximum. Its clear pattern of restriction to the northern area, in the absence of similarly restricted southern clades, suggests that contemporary dispersal around Cape Blanco is rare (population F _ST = 0.192). Low pairwise differentiation within Oregon and within central California, as well as contrasts between northern and southern groups in the shape of the pairwise mismatch distribution, nucleotide diversity, and Tajima’s D suggest that these regions reflect different demographic histories. Potential mechanisms explaining this latitudinal break include contemporary coastal circulation patterns, selection, and ancient patterns of larval dispersal in the California Current.     

Postfledging Dispersal of White-crowned Pigeons: Implications for Conservation of Deciduous Seasonal Forests in the Florida Keys

From 1988 to 1991, we studied the postfledging dispersal of 31 radio-tagged White-crowned Pigeons ( Columba leucocephala ) from three natal keys in Florida Bay. Immature birds dispersed from the natal keys at 26–45 days after batching, and most young dispersed more than 20 km during the first 10 days postdispersal. Dispersing birds flew either north to the Florida mainland or east to northeast to the mainline Florida Keys. On the mainland, immature birds fed nearly exclusively within Everglades National Park or an adjacent state wildlife management area. On the mainline keys, White-crowned Pigeons selectively used 5.01–20 ha forest fragments (p < 0.10) during the first 72 hours postdispersal. After this period, dispersing birds showed no preference among fragment size classes but used deciduous seasonal forests more frequently than suburban habitat(p < 0.10). The spatial pattern of dispersal on the mainline keys suggests that, during the first 72 hours postdispersal. White-crowned Pigeons are not able to reach northern Key Largo, where 69% of the deciduous seasonal forests are protected in state or federal ownership. Protection of large forest fragments, especially on southern Key Largo, should be a priority for maintaining populations of White-crowned Pigeons. These forests provide a series of "stepping stones" that enable dispersing immature White-crowned Pigeons to fly to more distant areas where habitat availability is less restricted. This species is threatened in Florida and may play an important role in maintaining plant species diversity in the seasonal deciduous forests of south Florida by dispersing seeds of at least 37 species of trees and shrubs. Protection of sufficient habitat to allow successful postfledging dispersal of this important seed disperser will also protect the ecosystem's biodiversity.