Economic-statistical design of multivariate control charts for monitoring the mean vector and covariance matrix

When a control chart is used to monitor a process, three test parameters should be determined: the sample size, the sampling interval between successive samples, and the control limits or critical region of the chart. In this paper, we present the procedure to conduct the economic-statistical design of multivariate control charts for monitoring the process mean vector and covariance matrix simultaneously; i.e. to economically determine the optimum values of the three test parameters such that the statistical constraints (including the type I error probability and power) of the control chart can be satisfied. The test statistic −2ℓnL is applied to develop this procedure and the cost model is established based on the function given by Montgomery and Klatt. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the solution procedure of the design and then the effects of cost parameters on the optimal design are examined.     

Kullback-Leibler distance-based enhanced detection of incipient anomalies

Accurate and effective anomaly detection and diagnosis of modern engineering systems by monitoring processes ensure reliability and safety of a product while maintaining desired quality. In this paper, an innovative method based on Kullback-Leibler divergence for detecting incipient anomalies in highly correlated multivariate data is presented. We use a partial least square (PLS) method as a modeling framework and a symmetrized Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD) as an anomaly indicator, where it is used to quantify the dissimilarity between current PLS-based residual and reference probability distributions obtained using fault-free data. Furthermore, this paper reports the development of two monitoring charts based on the KLD. The first approach is a KLD-Shewhart chart, where the Shewhart monitoring chart with a three sigma rule is used to monitor the KLD of the response variables residuals from the PLS model. The second approach integrates the KLD statistic into the exponentially weighted moving average monitoring chart. The performance of the PLS-based KLD anomaly-detection methods is illustrated and compared to that of conventional PLS-based anomaly detection methods. Using synthetic data and simulated distillation column data, we demonstrate the greater sensitivity and effectiveness of the developed method over the conventional PLS-based methods, especially when data are highly correlated and small anomalies are of interest. Results indicate that the proposed chart is a very promising KLD-based method because KLD-based charts are, in practice, designed to detect small shifts in process parameters.     

Cronbach's alpha reliability: Interval estimation,hypothesis testing,and sample size planning

Cronbach's alpha is one of the most widely used measures of reliability in the social and organizational sciences. Current practice is to report the sample value of Cronbach's alpha reliability, but a confidence interval for the population reliability value also should be reported. The traditional confidence interval for the population value of Cronbach's alpha makes an unnecessarily restrictive assumption that the multiple measurements have equal variances and equal covariances. We propose a confidence interval that does not require equal variances or equal covariances. The results of a simulation study demonstrated that the proposed method performed better than alternative methods. We also present some sample size formulas that approximate the sample size requirements for desired power or desired confidence interval precision. R functions are provided that can be used to implement the proposed confidence interval and sample size methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Workspace design for crane cabins applying a combined traditional approach and the Taguchi method for design of experiments

Procedures in the development process of crane cabins are arbitrary and subjective. Since approximately 42% of incidents in the construction industry are linked to them, there is a need to collect fresh anthropometric data and provide additional recommendations for design. In this paper, dimensioning of the crane cabin interior space was carried out using a sample of 64 crane operators’ anthropometric measurements, in the Republic of Serbia, by measuring workspace with 10 parameters using nine measured anthropometric data from each crane operator. This paper applies experiments run via full factorial designs using a combined traditional and Taguchi approach. The experiments indicated which design parameters are influenced by which anthropometric measurements and to what degree. The results are expected to be of use for crane cabin designers and should assist them to design a cabin that may lead to less strenuous sitting postures and fatigue for operators, thus improving safety and accident prevention.     

Bayesian sample size determination for inspection of general corrosion of process components

A Bayesian approach-based method is proposed for calculating the minimum size of a sample to assess, with a specified precision, the integrity of process components suffering from general corrosion. The proposed method ensures that the error in the posterior estimate of the mean does not exceed a pre-defined acceptable margin of error at a specified confidence level. An analytical formula to estimate the sample size is introduced. The sample size obtained using the proposed method is smaller than a sample size obtained using the classical method with same confidence level. This reduces sampling inspection cost without affecting the precision of the estimate.     

Development of an advanced nanocalorimetry system for material characterization

Calorimetric techniques, such as Differential Scanning Calorimeter (DSC), are widely used to characterize energetic materials. The conventional DSC is a well-established tool but is limited to a macroscopic sample. A key drawback of conventional macroscale DSC technology is the large thermal inertia of the calorimetric cell and its associated hardware for smaller sample size. The conventional technology can impose severe limitations in cases where only minute sample quantities are available for testing (e.g. forensics, detection of trace explosives, process or product development).A microreactor based calorimeter is being developed to obtain accurate measurements with smaller sample sizes. Because these systems incorporate a very small thermal mass and use reagent quantities in the nanogram/nanoliter range, rapid and uniform heating and cooing can be achieved while maintaining a high level of temperature homogeneity. These miniaturized nanocalorimeters can offer enhanced sensing capabilities in an inexpensive portable format so that measurements can be made directly in the settings where they are needed.This paper discusses the design and fabrication of the nanocalorimeter device, as well as interface with a modular thermal control system. With the proposed advanced device, a calorimetric analysis can be performed in a few minutes utilizing a minute sample. Therefore, such a nanocalorimeter can be effectively employed for rapid screening of energetic materials at relatively low cost.     

碱性水对煤自燃特性影响实验研究

为了研究碱性水对煤自燃特性的影响,选取葫芦素煤矿102工作面煤样作为实验煤样,利用STA-449C型同步热分析仪进行热重实验,研究加入PH=8 NaOH的煤样与原煤以及加入蒸馏水煤样在空气氛围中燃烧失重、放热量、特征温度点等变化规律,并根据Coats-Redfern积分模型计算了3种煤样燃烧反应动力学参数（活化能、指前因子）。研究结果表明:加入碱性水的2号煤样失重量较1,3号少,燃烧失重速率更低;2号煤氧化燃烧温度区间缩短,着火温度点升高,放热量少,比1,3号煤分别少485.0,480.4 J/g;3种煤样反应机理基本遵循一级化学反应函数,2号煤各段活化能高于1,3号煤,但2号煤失水活化能小于3号,表明碱性水具有抑制煤自燃效应。     

Aggregation of driver celeration behavior data: Effects on stability and accident prediction

Predictions about effects of aggregating driver celeration data were tested in a set of data where bus drivers’ behavior had been measured repeatedly over three years in a city environment. For drivers with many measurements, this data was correlated with the drivers’ accident record at various levels of aggregation over measurements. A single measurement (one sample) was seldom a significant predictor, but for each drive added to a mean, the variation explained in accident record was increased by about 1%. Also, correlations between measurements increased when these were aggregated, and the association with number of passengers (a proxy for traffic density) decreased somewhat, all as predicted. These results show that although driver celeration behavior is only semi-stable across time and environments, aggregating measurements increases both stability and predictive power versus accidents considerably. The celeration variable is therefore promising as a tool for identifying dangerous drivers, if these can be measured repeatedly, or, even better, continuously.     

Preparation of Co–MgO mixed oxide nanocatalysts for low temperature CO oxidation: Optimization of preparation conditions

In this study, a series of Co–MgO mixed oxides (30 wt.% Co) were prepared by co-precipitation method and employed as catalyst in low temperature CO oxidation reaction. The preparation conditions were optimized by the Taguchi method of experimental design to synthesize a sample with high catalytic performance toward CO oxidation reaction. The effects of four variables, pH of solution, aging temperature, aging time and molarity of precursor solution at three levels were investigated. The optimized sample was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature programmed reduction (TPR), temperature programmed desorption of oxygen (O₂-TPD), N₂ adsorption/desorption, thermal gravimetric and differential thermal analysis (TGA/DTA), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques. The results revealed that the optimized sample showed a mesoporous structure with a narrow pore size distribution centered in the range of 7–17 nm and particle size about 5.5 nm. It was found that the molarity of solution and aging time had the most influence on the CO conversion, respectively. The catalytic results showed that the highest CO conversion obtained from samples synthesized by Taguchi orthogonal array was about 90% at 200 °C, while the CO conversion for optimized sample was 95%. In addition, the effect of operational conditions was studied over optimized sample.     

考虑滚动阻抗的线性接触模型离散元宏细观参数敏感性研究*

为克服无黏性土的离散元研究中未考虑颗粒间抗转动作用的缺陷,基于抗转动线性接触模型开展一系列排水固结三轴压缩模拟试验,结合随机森林算法详细探讨抗转动线性接触模型中各细观参数（有效模量、刚度比、摩擦系数、抗转动系数）与试样的宏观参数（初始弹性模量、泊松比、峰值强度）间的关系。结果表明:颗粒有效模量的提高会使试样的初始弹性模量提高而泊松比提高,权重值分别为0.695 14和0.201 57;刚度比的增加会使试样的初始弹性模量降低而泊松比提高,权重值分别为0.751和0.193 64;抗转动系数与摩擦系数提高会显著提高试样的抗剪强度,权重值分别为0.564 72和0.427 5;抗转动系数对试样的剪胀性具有显著影响。     

考虑街区尺寸的应急救援路径选择仿真研究

为分析街区尺寸对应急救援车辆行程时间的影响,基于小（120 m）、中（264 m）、大（440 m）3种典型街区尺寸,将救援车辆行程时间分为街区内、外2部分,以总行程时间最小为目标,构建基于背景流量水平的救援车辆路径选择仿真模型。设置4种救援场景,分别求解各救援场景在不同街区尺寸下的最短路径时间、冗余度及复杂度。结果表明:街区尺寸对街区内、外部救援时间均有影响,而前者在救援路径距离较短、街区尺寸较大的路网中占据较大比例（可达50%以上）;救援路径包含路段的流量较小时,中、大街区尺寸路网表现类似,而高流量下大尺寸具备更优的救援时间;街区尺寸越小,救援路径冗余度与复杂度均越大。     

Risk-based asset integrity indicators

Asset integrity is a major concern of process facilities. Monitoring and assessing asset integrity is a challenging task due to the involvement of various dependent and independent parameters. Monitoring and assessing asset performance through indicators is one easily doable option. Lack of an appropriate set of indicators quantification technique and measurement cohesion limits the use of an indicator system. To overcome this, in the present paper a hierarchical framework is prepared to for asset integrity monitoring and assessment. The hierarchical structure is used to characterize the asset and relate it to an organization’s strategic goal. The hierarchical structure is based on three major areas of asset integrity, namely: mechanical, personnel and process. Further, it provides an opportunity to follow a bottom-up perspective for identifying multilevel level indicators. The proposed approach uses a risk metric to classify asset integrity through the integration of leading and lagging indicators’ outcome. The analytical hierarchy process is used to determine the weights, or for prioritization of each level indicator and for the aggregation of the indicators to classify risk. To test the proposed model, a benchmark study is conducted. The estimated asset integrity index value provides a tangible asset’s performance index. The system of indicators and their integration provide a comprehensive view of the process facility’s status and also reveal which sections of the facility need more attention.     

气凝胶消防救援服内衬的热阻计算

为提高消防救援服在高温环境中的穿着热舒适性能,探究消防救援服内衬热阻的理论公式推导和数值计算,推导得出粒径、导热系数、填充角度和热阻之间的关系,用Matlab作出三维模型图,表示热阻和三者之间的关系.结果 表明:当粒径越小,填充角度越小和导热系数越小时,热阻值越大;当填充颗粒的粒径一定时,等热阻线呈现抛物线趋势,且随着...     

基于TPB的通航企业事件信息自主上报意愿影响因素研究*

为探讨通航企业不安全事件信息自主上报意愿的影响因素,基于扩展计划行为理论的分析框架,采用结构方程模型和差异显著性分析,对我国通航企业170份样本数据进行分析。结果表明:企业性质、规模和成立年限显著影响企业事件信息报告行为意向。其中,国有企业行为意向显著高于民营企业,500人以上较大规模企业行为意向显著高于500人以下较小规模企业,成立3 a以上企业的行为意向显著高于成立3 a以下的企业。此外,通航企业不安全事件自主上报的行为意向直接影响因素包括行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、感知成本及认知,间接影响因素是感知成本与感知收益、示范性规范与指令性规范。     

A methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining

This study provides a methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining. An important measure in this regard may be the ‘time between occurrences’ (TBO) of hazards that can be modeled in the similar fashion of ‘time between failures’ (TBF) data modeling which is practiced in reliability study. Typically, time between accidents is modeled in safety study. This study is therefore new in two counts: (i) statistically modeling hazard occurrences based on inspection reports and (ii) monitoring of safety status based on control charting of hazard occurrences. The methodology includes Weibull-distribution based hazard rate functions, Poisson-distribution based cumulative risk functions, and Weibull-distribution based control charts. The new methodology is applied to an underground coal mining worksystem and the results are discussed. The case study results show that hazards related to machinery, ground-fall, housekeeping, roadways, and materials are more frequently occurring. It is recommended that in addition to planned inspections for identification of hazards, a control chart based hazard mitigation scheme should be employed at the mine sections for better monitoring and control of hazards.     

Numerical simulation of the thermal inertia of an adiabatic reaction calorimeter in reaction thermal safety process

Obtaining accurate thermal risk assessment parameters of chemical processes and substance properties is essential for improving the safety of chemical production and substance use and storage, and the adiabatic reaction calorimeter (ARC) has been employed by many researchers for this purpose. However, with the improvement and upgrading of the instrument, an examination of the factors that affect its detection accuracy is warranted. A simplified reaction model of the adiabatic thermal decomposition of tert-butyl peroxyacetate was constructed using computational fluid dynamics in which the adiabatic thermal decomposition kinetic model and fluid-solid coupling model were combined to simulate heat transfer. To verify the reliability of the parameters of the numerical calculation model, the effects of the sample cell's material, wall thickness, and mass were investigated in relation to the thermal inertia of the ARC. The results indicated that the thermal inertia of the system was lowest when the sample cell was composed of titanium. When the sample pool's composition is determined, the thermal inertia of the system can be reduced to a certain extent through an approximate increase in the sample mass. Finally, an analysis of the heat flow cloud diagram of the wall of sample pools made from different materials revealed that the thermal conductivity of titanium was high; this information can assist in controlling the adiabatic process.     

Comparison of steel,aluminum and composite bonnet in terms of pedestrian head impact

Material selection for automotive closures is influenced by different factors such as cost, weight and structural performance. Among closures, the automotive bonnet must fulfill the requirements of pedestrian safety which is evaluated by child and adult headform impactors. The mechanisms of injury are complex, therefore; the Head Injury Criterion (HIC) which shows a measure of the likelihood of head injury arising from an impact is developed. HIC includes the effects of head acceleration and the duration of the acceleration.In this paper a new finite element model has been developed which is capable to simulate head impact phenomenon between headform impactors and composite bonnet. Then the behavior of three identical bonnets made of steel, aluminum and composite have been investigated by the developed model. It is shown that the energy absorption of aluminum bonnet is smaller than steel and composite ones and for keeping the aluminum bonnet at the same level of stiffness, it is necessary to increase the thickness. Therefore, the aluminum bonnet needs a larger space between the bonnet and the parts in the engine compartment. It is shown that although the displacement of headform for composite bonnet is more than that of steel and aluminum ones, but the amount of HIC’s, which are measured at the collision points are much less than those measured at the same collision points for steel and aluminum bonnets.In addition the comparison of three bonnets of the different materials has been done to highlight cost, weight, and structural performance issues.     

基于广义极值分布的流化床压力波动风险预警

为预警气泡运动所引起的流化床粉煤气化压力波动风险,提出预测压力波动极值以及压力波动重现水平的方法;首先采用自相关分析法将压力波动母样本数据合理分段,再用区间极值法统计子样本的压力波动极值数据,以广义极值(GEV)分布方法建立GEV分布模型和Gumbel分布模型,并经过模型诊断选择最优模型;然后通过子样本与母样本的参数关...     

Sample size requirements for multiple regression interval estimation

Sample size planning is one of the most important issues in the design of a study. Simple and accurate sample size formulas for a desired confidence interval width have been developed for many statistical procedures, but a simple and accurate sample size formula for the squared multiple correlation has been a notable exception. Several rule‐of‐thumb sample size recommendations for a multiple regression analysis have been proposed over the years but none are satisfactory. Other approaches have focused on the construction of elaborate tables of sample size requirements, but these tables are both unwieldy and inadequate. We present a simple, accurate, and general method of approximating the sample size requirement for obtaining a squared multiple correlation confidence interval with desired precision. We also present a simple method for approximating the sample size needed to estimate unstandardized regression coefficients with desired precision. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of the buried steel pipeline caused by perilous rock impact: Parametric study

One of threatening buried steel pipeline in bad geological regions is collapsed rock. Buckling behavior of a buried pipeline impacted by a perilous rock with spherical shape was investigated by numerical simulation. Effects of pipeline parameters (internal pressure, wall thickness, diameter, buried depth) and perilous rock parameters (impact velocity, radius, eccentric distance) on deformation, stress and strain of the buried pipeline were discussed. Buckling behaviors of the buried pipeline under transverse and longitudinal inclined impacts also were studied. The results show that cross section shape of the buried pipeline becomes to an oval, then to a peach shape, and finally to a crescent shape or gourd shape in the process of rock’s impact. The deformation process of a buried pipeline can be divided into four stages. They are elastic deformation stage, buckling stage, elastic recovery stage and final deformation stage. Buckling mode of no-pressure pipeline is more serious than the pressure pipeline. The impact dent’s length and depth increase with the decreasing of buried depth, wall thickness and internal pressure. But they increase with the increasing of impact velocity, perilous rock’s radius and pipeline’s diameter. The maximum stress and plastic strain decrease with the increasing of buried depth and wall thickness. Under rock’s eccentric impact, impact dent trends to one side. Stress and plastic deformation decrease with the eccentric distance increases. Under rock’s transverse and longitudinal inclined impacts, cross section shape of the buried pipeline is an oval shape when the incidence angle α ≤ 45°, and there is no plastic deformation. When α > 45°, impact dent appears. Buckling is more serious with the incidence angle increases. Destructive powers of transverse and longitudinal inclined impacts are smaller than the vertical impact.