Aspects of risk analysis associated with major failures of fuel pipelines

This paper presents a methodology of risk assessment for hazards associated with transportation of dangerous substances in long pipelines. The proposed methodology comprises a sequence of analyses and calculations used to determine basic reasons of pipeline failures and their probable consequences, taking individual and societal risk into account. A specific feature of this methodology is a combination of qualitative (historical data analysis, conformance test and scoring system of hazard assessment) and quantitative techniques of pipeline safety assessment. This enables a detailed analysis of risk associated with selected hazard sources by means of quantitative techniques. On the ground of this methodology typical problems that usually pose serious threat and constitute part of risk analysis for long fuel pipelines are also presented. To verify above methodology, complete risk analysis was performed for the long distance fuel pipeline in Poland.     

Prevention and mitigation of injuries and damages arising from the activity of subliminal enterprises: A case study in Slovakia

The paper focuses on risk sources under no legislative pressure in the field of prevention of major accidents. Despite this, they can represent significant sources of risk of accidents.The aim of the paper is to present the results of the risk assessment associated with the operation of enterprises not regulated by the SEVESO III Directive (the so-called subliminal enterprises), to provide information on possible operational problems and to verify the applicability of recognized risk analysis methods for these specific sources of risk. Last but not least, its purpose is to point out that subliminal enterprises, due to their location close to residential areas or areas with a high concentration of population, pose a serious risk to the population.The paper summarizes the results of the quantitative risk assessment of a specific enterprise not included in the Seveso Directive – a filling station. Filling stations are frequently located in built-up areas with a dense coefficient of habitability. Due to their number, location (e.g. close to residential areas), frequency of occurrence of persons in the area and handling of dangerous substances during normal operation, they can have negative or even tragic consequences to the life and health of the population.Due to the non-existent risk assessment methodology for enterprises with subliminal quantities of dangerous substances and the lack of a systematic search for risk sources, a risk assessment procedure for these companies is designed.     

A study of land transport of dangerous substances in Eastern Sicily

In this work a quantitative analysis of the risk in the land transport of hazardous materials in Sicily has been executed. Risk calculation has been carried out using the TRAT-GIS code, a software for incidental and environmental risk assessment associated with the transport of dangerous substances and supported by a Geographical Information System (GIS). Results have been collected in a database, the GIS allows to display the risk maps.Risk analysis has been made on a regional scale, then some critical points have been analysed in detail. Comparisons between different typologies of transport and routes have been possible by means of the risk maps. In order to reduce the risk and improve the protection of citizens, some proposals have been analysed in these past years and some of them have been recently realized. In this study other proposals for the optimization of the transport system have been formulated, results have also permitted to evaluate the risk reduction after the future application of the Regional Transportation Plan for the Sicily.     

Analysis and control of major accidents from the intermediate temporary storage of dangerous substances in marshalling yards and port areas

This paper deals with the major accident hazards associated with the intermediate temporary storage of dangerous substances in transportation-related activities. In particular, the hazards related to the presence of dangerous substances in port areas and marshalling yards are identified and analysed. Furthermore, a number of past accidents in transport interfaces have been collated from various sources and have been statistically analysed. Finally, the framework for major accident control in these activities is reviewed and discussed.     

Risk and consequence analyses of hazardous chemicals in marshalling yards and warehouses at Ikonio/Piraeus harbour, Greece

The risk and the consequences of possible accidents at Ikonio (Piraeus harbour, Greece) are investigated and analyzed in this paper. At this harbour large cargoes of dangerous chemicals (toxic or flammable) are unloaded and stored in warehouses or in marshalling yards. Houses and a school are located near the plant and are directly exposed to danger in the case of an accident. The results were obtained by Breeze Hazard Professional software package, which contains several models for performing consequence modeling through quantitative risk assessment.     

道化学火灾、爆炸危险指数法在1,3丁二烯聚合安全性评价中的应用

道化学火灾、爆炸危险指数法是在化工领域中广泛应用的一种评价方法,根据该法制定的指数选取规则,可对工艺单元火灾爆炸危险性进行量化和分级.以某化工厂3000t/a三聚体生产项目为背景,从工艺过程、危险物质、安全设施设计等方面,对1,3丁二烯聚合过程火灾、爆炸危险性进行分析;定量评价工艺装置及所含物料潜在危险性,得出主装置区、储罐区固有危险等级,分析不同状态下安全补偿系数对降低危险等级的影响,提出相应安全对策措施.     

Thermal hazard analysis of 1-((cyano-1-methylethyl) azo) formamide and effect of incompatible substances on its thermal decomposition

1-((cyano-1-methylethyl) azo) formamide (CABN) is an azo compound that exhibits high thermal sensitivity and self-reactivity. Because of incorrect operation, incompatible substances and other dangerous conditions, thermal explosion accidents may occur during the manufacturing, storage, and transportation of CABN. The pyrolysis characteristics of CABN and its mixture for various heating rates were assessed using differential scanning calorimetry. The results showed that incompatible substances increased the risk of CABN. Moreover, the thermal runaway of CABN under an adiabatic condition was studied using an adiabatic rate calorimeter to obtain the parameters under adiabatic condition. Based on the experimental data, the kinetic parameters of CABN and its mixtures were obtained. In addition, a thermal decomposition kinetic model of CABN was created using Thermal Safety Series. All experiments have shown that the conditions and parameters of CABN must be strictly controlled.     

Modelling accidental releases of dangerous gases into the lower troposphere from mobile sources

The article reports the results of different methods of modelling releases and dispersion of dangerous gases or vapours in cases of major accidents from road and rail transportation in urban zones. Transport accidents of dangerous substances are increasingly frequent and can cause serious injuries in densely inhabited areas or pollution of the environment. For quantitative risk assessment and mitigation planning, consequence modelling is necessary.

The modelling of dangerous substance dispersion by standard methods does not fully represent the behaviour of toxic or flammable clouds in obstructed areas such as street canyons. Therefore the predictions from common software packages as ALOHA, EFFECTS, TerEx should be augmented with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or physical modelling in aerodynamic tunnels, and further studies are planned to do this.

The goal of this article is to present the results of the first approach of modelling using these standard methods and to demonstrate the importance of the next development stage in the area of transport accident modelling of releases and dispersions of dangerous substances in urban zones in cases of major accident or terrorist attacks.     

模糊综合评价法在液氯运输过程安全性评估的应用

将模糊综合评价方法和层次分析法用于危险化学品运输过程安全性评估,综合考虑在过程中危化品、人、车、路、环境等五个方面因素对整个过程安全性的影响,得到运输过程安全性等级。运用现有的泄漏模拟公式定量计算发生泄漏事故后所产生的危险区域,为人员疏散提供了决策帮助。最后以液氯运输过程为例进行安全评估,并计算泄漏后危险区域的范围。     

对天津港“8·12”特别重大火灾爆炸事故相关法规标准的思考

硝化棉已分别列入危险化学品、易制爆危险化学品和第二批重点监管的危险化学品,硝酸铵也分别列入危险化学品、民用爆炸物品和首批重点监管的危险化学品,二者都是重点监管的对象,但二者相关事故还是时有发生。为了更全面和深刻理解天津港“8·12”特别重大火灾爆炸事故的发生,以危险化学品储存场所外部距离标准要求为切入点,分析了储存场所外部距离变化过程;介绍了初始起火物质硝化棉和导致事故后果严重扩大的硝酸铵2种危险化学品的国内监管分类和相关标准要求,并与事故调查报告中给出的结论进行了对比;针对本起火灾爆炸事故后果特点和非法储存危险物质罪罪行认定条件,剖析了现存的问题。分析结果旨在为政府有关部门及事故调查等工作提供参考。     

A risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO2 pipelines using integral consequence modelling

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO₂ pipelines developed at the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) as part of the EU FP7 CO2Pipehaz project. Until recently, risk assessment of dense phase and supercritical CO₂ pipelines has been problematic because of the lack of suitable source term and integral consequence models that handle the complex behaviour of CO₂ appropriately. The risk assessment presented uses Phast, a commercially available source term and dispersion model that has been recently updated to handle the effects of solid CO₂. A test case pipeline was input to Phast and dispersion footprints to different levels of harm (dangerous toxic load and probit values) were obtained for a set of pipeline specific scenarios. HSL's risk assessment tool QuickRisk was then used to calculate the individual and societal risk surrounding the pipeline. Knowledge gaps that were encountered such as: harm criteria, failure rates and release scenarios were identified and are discussed.     

An empirical investigation of European drivers' self-assessment

PROBLEM: Evaluating motorists through self-assessment has attracted much interest in recent literature, which is mainly due to the profound impact various parameters of self-assessment can have on the way motorists deal with hazardous traffic situations. Much of the previous work in this area has been hampered both by the lack of adequate sample sizes and, because of the small samples, the evaluation methodologies used. METHOD: This paper extends previous research in two significant directions: (a) it uses the SARTRE 2 database, which provides more than 17,000 questionnaires from most European countries; and (b) it employs the ordered probit modeling approach, which recognizes the latent nature of self-assessment and explicitly links its dimensions to a set of relevant explanatory variables such as age, gender, region, and income. RESULTS: The results indicate that drivers who rate themselves as both more dangerous and faster than others are, generally, younger men, with higher incomes, break the speed limit more frequently, avoid wearing seat belts, and have been involved in more accidents in the past than other drivers. Interestingly, more experienced and more highly educated drivers assess their driving as less dangerous, but admit to driving faster than other drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The methodology used and the results obtained can be a significant help in identifying drivers with high and low self-assessment ratings, which can be useful in planning and implementing road safety information campaigns.     

Towards the improvement of UN N.5 test method for the characterization of substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases

This paper deals with a sensitivity analysis of main parameters affecting the measurement of the gas flowrate emitted during testing substances for their potential to emit flammables gases in dangerous quantities where in contact with water, according to the UN N.5 test procedure. UN N.5 is described in the Manual of Tests and Criteria of United Nations (part of the Orange Book) (ONU Manual of Test and Criteria, 2008), serving both applications of international transport regulations as well as classifications of dangerous substances according to Globally the Harmonized System (GHS) and the derived regulation applying in the EU known as “CLP” Regulation (Regulation (EC) No 1271/2008). The main reason that justifies the present research is that the measurement of emitted gases is highly critical in the final classification resulting from the interpretation of the test results. Moreover, that idea has been raised to adapt the UN N.5 test protocol for classifying, in the future, substances that by contact with water would emit dangerous quantities of toxic gases.Experiments have been carried out to cover the analysis of the influence of ambient temperature, overall volume of glassware, nature of aqueous media, mass sample and sample-to-liquid mass ratio, since such parameters are not fixed within any defined range in the UN N.5 test procedure. The influence of the flow rate measuring device was also considered. Results confirm that the above mentioned parameters may play a significant role to such an extent as to finally alter the final classification resulting from the testing. Guiding principles have also been derived from our measurements and observations towards an improved and more robust UN test protocol in the future.     

Historical evolution of process safety and major-accident hazards prevention in Spain. Contribution of the pioneer Joaquim Casal

This paper aims at presenting the evolution of process safety in Spain from various points of view. In first place, a study of the accidents occurred in this country in the process industry and in the transportation of chemical substances is presented. After this, the starting point of the process safety research in Spain and its evolution during the years are explained. The importance of this topic has also been reflected in the chemical engineering studies in some Spanish universities. Therefore, the current status of the studies on process safety in Spain is analyzed in this paper. A section has also been devoted to the process safety in the Spanish industry. An analysis of the related legislation and its implementation in the Spanish process industry is also presented in this paper. Finally, the professional career of Prof. Joaquim Casal, the pioneer in Spain in process safety and risk assessment, is summarized.     

采场硫化矿石爆堆自燃危险性评价研究

在非煤矿山中,许多矿山因矿石含硫量高,在开采过程中经常发生矿石自燃火灾。因此,开展采场矿石自燃危险性评价意义重大。作者通过总结以往的评价方法,并在做了大量实验的基础上,建立了针对硫化矿石氧化自燃危险性的综合评价体系。首先,以“火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法”(DOW)为模型,根据影响硫化矿石自燃的因素分析,建立了针对硫化矿石自燃危险性的评价指数和等级。据此,结合新疆某矿的矿石自燃性开展评价。作者在评价过程中,考虑了该综合评价法在矿山生产中的实用性,评价方法中的各个影响因素都可以通过实验或者现场调查确定其应取的危险值,这种评价方法适用于所有的硫化矿山火灾危险性评价。     

油气长输管道作业分级定量风险评价方法研究及应用

为客观掌握油气管道生产运营岗位主要作业风险,实现油气长输管道企业作业风险管理,提出一种作业分级定量风险评价方法。首先,辨识油气管道系统主要危险作业类型和引起作业事故的危险有害因素;然后由作业分级法确定事故发生的可能性与严重性;最后建立基于作业分级的风险矩阵,得到各作业活动的风险级别。将该方法应用于某管道公司,以该公司生产区内部高处作业为例,对作业过程中的危险有害因素进行识别与评价,得出高处作业过程中各步骤的风险程度。结果表明该评价方法具有一定的可操作性,可反映各类危险作业过程中的风险程度,为后期有针对性的风险控制提供指导,有助于公司的风险管理。     

Thermochemical stability: A comparison between experimental and predicted data

The first step to be performed during the development of a new industrial process should be the assessment of all hazards associated to the involved compounds. Particularly, the knowledge of all substances thermochemical parameters is a primary feature for such a hazard evaluation. CHETAH (CHEmical Thermodynamic And Hazard evaluation) is a prediction software suitable for calculating potential hazards of chemicals, mixtures or a single reaction that, using only the structure of the involved molecules and Benson's group contribution method, is able to calculate heats of formation, entropies, Gibbs free energies and reaction enthalpies. Because of its ability to predict the potential hazards of a material or mixture, CHETAH is part of the so-called “desktop methods” for early stage chemical safety analysis.In this work, CHETAH software has been used to compile a complete risk database reporting heats of decomposition and Energy Release Potential (ERP) for 342 common use chemicals. These compounds have been gathered into classes depending on their functional groups and similarities in their thermal behavior. Calculated decomposition enthalpies for each of the compounds have also been compared with experimental data obtained with either thermoanalytic or calorimetric techniques (Differential Scanning Calorimeter – DSC – and Accelerating Rate Calorimeter – ARC).     

双重预防机制基本概念辨析及创建方法探讨

为解决双重预防机制基本概念不清晰、创建方法不明确等问题,采用理论研究和实践相结合的方式,首先分析了国内外关于危险源、危险和有害因素、安全风险、隐患等基本概念,完善了安全风险的定义,研究了危险源与“危险和有害因素”、危险源与隐患、危险源与安全风险之间的关系。其次通过分析安全风险管控与隐患排查治理的内在关系,表明了开展双重预防机制的实际意义。最后提出了双重预防机制的创建程序和方法。     

重大事故后果模拟法在天然气场站安全评价中的应用

场站是气田集输的枢纽,也是高风险存在和集中的场所.本论文采用重大事故后果模拟分析法建立天然气泄漏速率估算模型、蒸气云爆炸模型,并以陕北某一天然气场站为例,借助Risk System软件对天然气泄漏速率和泄漏量以及蒸气云爆炸最大事故进行数值模拟.模拟分析结果有助于对天然气场站可能发生的各种事故进行风险评价,也有助于对各类...     

生产作业区重大危险源评估方法研究

危险源是危险的根源,是系统中存在的可能发生意外释放能量的危险物质,开展重大危险源评估工作可有效预防和控制生产作业区重大安全事故的发生,保障人民群众生命财产安全,同时也为生产作业区安全监督管理提供依据。以某生产作业区为例,研究了生产作业区重大危险源辨识标准及分类分级方法,研究了重大危险源安全现状及危害等级的安全评估方法,指出了企业在重大危险源安全管理上应采取的安全技术措施和安全管理措施,为提高生产作业区安全管理水平,制定重大危险源专项应急预案提供了依据,上述辨识和评估思路和方法可为其他企业借鉴参考。