A holistic approach to ecological modelling

Models of different complexity were used to examine how the ecological buffer capacity, β (defined as the change in loading relative to the change in a considered state variable) varies when the loading, e.g. the input of phosphorus, is changed. It was found that while β = ΔP(total)/ΔP(soluble) increases with increasing complexity of the model at low P-loading, the β-value will — at medium P-loadings — have a maximum value at a certain degree of complexity, and will be a decreasing function of complexity at high phosphorus loadings. This might explain why very eutrophic lakes, rivers polluted with organic matter or other stressed ecosystems are stable although their complexity is low.The more complex ecosystems seem best able to cope with increasing variations in climatic factors.In the models considered the thermodynamic function exergy correlates well with the sum of relevant buffer capacities. High exergy levels mean that the structure is more able to meet changes in external factors.     

Exergy vs information in ecological successions: Interpreting community changes by a classical thermodynamic approach

This work proposes a methodology based on classical thermodynamics, which allows the variation in ecosystem composition to be interpreted within the framework of the exergy concept. The basic equation of exergy [Mejer, H., Jorgensen, S.E., 1979. Exergy and ecological buffer capacity. State-of-the-art in Ecological Modelling 7, 829–846] was decomposed into three terms – size (C), structural information (I) and concentration (X) – and their significance as indicators of ecosystem state was evaluated by simulating different scenarios of development in a simplified freshwater ecosystem. In order to calculate the exergy terms, the most critical issue in using exergy in an ecological context, i.e. the estimate of reference equilibrium values for organic matter and organisms, had to be faced. With this aim, the equations of classical thermodynamics in solution were applied, and “virtual” values of concentration at equilibrium were calculated for a number of organic compounds (VEC) and freshwater organisms (VECE). The results of the simulation showed that, whereas exergy and the exergy terms inherently connected with the a-biotic component varied consistently with the incorporation of biomass into the ecosystem, the structural information of the biotic component followed different, even opposite, pathways of variation, which were dependent only on the change in the size spectrum of the community. Due to the strict dependence of the VECE values on organism size, the increase of structural information with increasing abundance of large and complex species is also consistent with the general pattern of succession delineated by the classical r–K model. Structural information is therefore proposed as an indicator of the development state, as well as an ecological orientor, whose maximisation is expected during ecosystem development. However, since an increase in structural information is not necessarily accompanied by an increase in exergy, a sort of “antagonism” between these two related orientors emerges, whose resolution may contribute to shed light on the fundamental forces which drive ecosystem development.     

Optimization of exergy and implications of body sizes of phytoplankton and zooplankton in an aquatic ecosystem model

Size appears to be an important parameter in ecological processes. All physiological processes vary with body size ranging from small microorganisms to higher mammals. In this model, five state variables — phosphorus, detritus, phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish are considered. We study the implications of body sizes of phytoplankton and zooplankton for total system dynamics by optimizing exergy as a goal function for system performance indicator. The rates of different sub-processes of phytoplankton and zooplankton are calculated, by means of allometric relationships of their body sizes. We run the model with different combinations of body sizes of phytoplankton and zooplankton and observe the overall biomass of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish. The highest exergy values in different combinations of phytoplankton and zooplankton size indicate the maximum biomass of fish with relative proportions of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We also test the effect of phosphorus input conditions corresponding to oligotrophic, mesotrophic, eutrophic system on its dynamics. The average exergy to be maximized over phytoplankton and zooplankton size was computed when the system reached a steady state. Since this state is often a limit cycle, and the exergy copies this behaviour, we averaged the exergy computed for 365 days (duration of 1 year) in the stable period of the run. In mesotrophic condition, maximum fish biomass with relative proportional ratio of phytoplankton, zooplankton is recorded for phytoplankton size class 3.12 (log V μm³ volume) and zooplankton size 4 (log V μm³ volume). In oligotrophic condition the highest average exergy is obtained in between phytoplankton size 1.48 (log V μm³ volume) and zooplankton size 4 (log V μm³ volume), whereas in eutrophic condition the result shows the highest exergy in the combination of phytoplankton size 5.25 (log V μm³ volume) and zooplankton size 4 (log V μm³ volume).     

The free energy and information embodied in the amino acid chains of organisms

It is generally accepted as a useful and workable hypothesis that when an ecosystem receives an inflow of exergy (energy that can do work) it will utilize this flow of exergy to move as far away from thermodynamic equilibrium as possible after the exergy (energy) for maintenance has been covered. If more combinations of system components including organisms are offered, the combination of components and processes that will bring the system most away from thermodynamic equilibrium will win.The amino acid sequences of the proteins e.g. enzymes determine and control the life processes of the organisms and may be viewed as information sensu lato. The free energy of oxidation of the amino acids and the peptide bonds of the cell enzymes expresses therefore the exergy content, eco-exergy or work capacity that the information contributes to “moving further away from thermodynamic equilibrium”. In this paper eco-exergy is calculated and plotted versus the β-values (a measure of the information contained in the genome) for different organisms. The eco-exergy density was previously (see [J?rgensen et al., 1995] and [J?rgensen et al., 2005]) proposed to be calculated as the summation of the product of the β-values representing the information of the genome multiplied by the concentrations of the respective ecosystem components. This analysis shows a strong correlation between the β-values and free energy released when oxidizing the enzymes. The β-values can therefore be assumed to represent the free energy that the organisms have invested in genetic information.     

Comparison of exergy found by a classical thermodynamic approach and by the use of the information stored in the genome

It is possible to calculate the exergy for organisms based on classic thermodynamics as already demonstrated by Mejer and Jorgensen [Mejer, H., Jorgensen, S.E., 1979. Exergy and ecological buffer capacity. State-of-the-art in Ecol. Model. 7, 829–846]. The calculation of exergy as eco-exergy, which is based on the information stored in the genome, has lately been proposed by Jørgensen and co-workers. Recently, Ludovisi [Ludovisi, A., 2009. Exergy vs information in ecological successions: interpreting community changes by a classical thermodynamic approach. Ecol. Model. 220, 1566–1577] has put forward a method based on classical thermodynamics, which leads to the calculation of “virtual” values of concentration at equilibrium for a number of organic compounds (VEC) and freshwater organisms (VECE). This paper compares the two approaches by analysing the correlation existing between the VECE- and the β-values derived by Jørgensen et al. [Jørgensen, S.E., Ladegaard, N., Debeljak, M., Marques, J.C., 2005. Calculations of exergy for organisms. Ecol. Model. 185, 165–175]. It was found that there was a good correlation, which can be useful for estimating β-values for organisms whose genome is not known in a sufficient detail. The relationship between VECE- and β-values suggests that two proposed thermodynamic orientors based on these quantities – the eco-exergy index and the structural information – should lead to coherent results when applied to the evaluation of the development state of ecosystems. A numerical simulation shows that this expectation is verified in a major case, but also that different, even opposite, responses can arise, depending on the biological composition of the biocoenosis investigated.     

Cosmic exergy based ecological assessment for a wetland in Beijing

Wetlands research and restoration has become one of the critical concern due to their importance in providing ecosystem services. This study proposes a holistic methodology to assess the wetland ecosystem based on cosmic exergy as a thermodynamic orientor. This new approach is applied to two typical wastewater treatment facilities (an activated sludge system and a cyclic activated sludge system) and to a constructed wetland ecosystem in Beijing for comparison. Results show that the Beijing wetland ecosystem gains positive net present ecological value of 3.08E+14 J_c regarding its total life cycle. Comparison with the activated sludge system and cyclic activated sludge system, shows that the wetland ecosystem has greater dependencies on local resources (22% vs. 0% vs. 0%) and renewable resources (67% vs. 38% vs. 31%) as well as a larger ecological sustainability index (0.64157 vs. 0.00005 vs. 0.00008). This implies that the wetland ecosystem is more environmentally friendly and sustainable method for water treatment.     

Nitrogen limitation in the coastal heath at Anholt,Denmark

The purpose of the study was to investigate, whether the coastal grey dune vegetation at Anholt, Denmark, is limited by nitrogen or phosphorus. The island Anholt (22,37 km²) is situated in the centre of Kattegat A two factor fertilization experiment with nitrogen as NH₄NO₃ (N-addition) and phosphorus as KH₂PO₄ (P-addition) was carried out in the coastal grey dune vegetation of Anholt. The N-addition corresponded to 40 kg N ha^?1 year^?1 and the P-addition to 7 kg P ha^?1 year^?1 The experiment included N-, P-, N + P-addition and control. Lichens (genera: mainly Cladonia, Stereocaulon, Cetraria, Hypogymnia) and bryophytes (genera: Polytrichum, Racomitrium) cover most of the surface. Only two plant species, Corynephorus canescens and Empetrum nigrum, constitute nearly all vascular plant cover and biomass of this calcium poor coastal heath community. Corynephorus and Empetrum increased their cover significantly following N and N + P addition. No effect was observed by P addition alone. N limitation of this coastal heath vegetation remote from agricultural and industrial activities was evident. The effect on the plant species of the single application was short-lived. After two-three years of enhanced cover, the Corynephorus and Empetrum cover had returned to their level before the experiment. The lichen vegetation, however, changed more permanently, and after 12 years the subplots with N + P addition was dominated by rich growth of Cladina and Cetraria species. The results are discussed in relation to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and conservation of this high priority ecosystem.     

Evaluation of information indices as indicators of environmental stress in terrestrial soils

Information indices from Ecosystem Network Analysis (ENA) can be used to quantify the development of an ecosystem in terms of its size and organization. There are two types of indices, i.e. absolute indices that describe both the size and organization of ecosystem (Total System Throughput (TST)—system size, Ascendancy (A)—size of organized flows and Development Capacity (C)—upper limit for A, Overhead (L)—size of unorganized flows) and relative indices that describe only the organization (Average Mutual Information (AMI = A:TST), Flow Diversity (H = C:TST), Relative Overhead (RL = L:TST)).It is theorized that environmental stress impair the ecosystem development and that the effect of stress can be quantified with the ENA information indices. Here we applied ENA on a case of environmental stress in a terrestrial ecosystem, i.e. soils that have endured long-term exposure to elevated copper concentration and altered pH.The absolute indices showed an unexpected pattern of response to pollution, suggesting that ecosystems in polluted soils are more active and better organized than these in unpolluted soils. The relative indices, alternatively, responded to pollution as predicted by theory, i.e. with decrease of stress (pollution level) the level of specialization increased (increase of AMI) and losses of energy, e.g. due to respiration, decreased (decrease of Overhead). The diversity and evenness of flows showed hump-backed relationship with stress. Less polluted soils appeared to be less vulnerable to external disturbances and more efficient in processing energy (higher Relative Ascendancy (RA = A:C)) than polluted soils. The relative information indices were rigid to changes in values of assumed parameters. The relative indices, opposite to absolute indices, appeared to be useful as indicators of environmental stress on the ecosystem level.     

No detectable impact of small-scale disturbances on ‘blue carbon’ within seagrass beds

Seagrass meadows are among the most efficient and long-term carbon sinks on earth, but disturbances could threaten this capacity, so understanding the impacts of disturbance on carbon stored within seagrass meadows—‘blue carbon’—is of prime importance. To date, there have been no published studies on the impacts of seagrass loss on ‘blue carbon’ stocks. We experimentally created several kinds of small-scale disturbances, representative of common grazer and boating impacts, within seagrass (Zostera nigracaulis) meadows in Port Phillip Bay (Australia) and measured the impacts on sediment organic carbon stocks (‘C _org’, and other geochemical variables—%N, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N). Disturbance had no detectable effect on C _org levels within seagrass sediments, even for high-intensity disturbance treatments, which remained bare (i.e. no seagrass recovery) for 2 years after the disturbance. These findings challenge the widely held assumption that disturbance and concomitant loss of seagrass habitat cause release of carbon, at least for small-scale disturbances. We suggest that larger (e.g. meadow scale) disturbances may be required to trigger losses of ‘blue carbon’ from seagrass meadows.     

The variations of exergies and structural exergies along eutrophication gradients in Chinese and Italian lakes

Taking 29 Chinese lakes and 29 Italian lakes as two separate case studies, the paper presented the variations of exergies and structural exergies along eutrophication gradients in Chinese and Italian lakes. The exergies (Ex) and structural exergies (Exst) were calculated based on phytoplankton biomass (BA) and zooplankton biomass (BZ). A trophic state index (TSI) scaling from 0 to 100 was developed to classify trophic status for Chinese and Italian lakes based on three indicators, chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a, in mg/m³), total phosphorus (TP in mg/m³) and transparency in Secchi disk depth (SD in m). The relationships between TSI and Ex, Exst, total biomass, BZ/BA ratios were analyzed. The following results were obtained: (1) with the increase of TSI in Chinese and Italian lakes, there is an increasing trend for Ex, and a decreasing trend for Exst, generally. The obvious negative correlations exist between TSI and Exst, at the significant level of 0.01 for Italian lakes, and 0.05 for Chinese lakes. The obvious positive correlations exist between TSI and Ex, at the significant level of 0.01 for Chinese lakes, and for Italian lakes in Spring, Autumn and the all-year. (2) The structural exergy is more dependent on the ratio of phytoplankton biomass to zooplankton biomass (BZ/BA) than the exergy, and the exergy is more dependent on total biomass than the structural exergy. (3) The phytoplankton biomass (BA) and zooplankton biomass (BZ) are increased with the increasing TSI in Chinese and Italian lakes, and phytoplankton biomass (BA) increases more rapidly then zooplankton biomass (BZ) does. This results in the definite decrease of BZ/BA ratio with the increasing trophic status index. Such changes of BA, BZ and BZ/BA ratio could explain successfully the variations of exergies and structural exergies along eutrophication gradients in Chinese and Italian lakes. From the two separate case studies of Chinese lakes and Italian lakes, it could be concluded that exergy and structural exergy are feasible to serve as the system-level ecological indicators to give appropriate information on the trophic status of different lakes.     

Metabolism and model of an estuarine bay ecosystem affected by a coastal power plant

The effects of a coastal power plant on an outer estuarine bay ecosystem on the west coast of Florida were evaluated with measurements and an ecological model. Field measurements of community metabolism and biomass were taken from the thermally affected bay and from similar control bays. Model simulations were used to help understand these observations in terms of ecosystem structure and functioning.In the outer discharge bay the direct impact of the thermal plume was diluted and spread overlarge areas. The ecosystem developed structure and functions with lower biomass than in the control bays but with slightly faster rates of organic turnover. The productive turnover time of producer biomass during the summer was about 5 days in the discharge bay and about 6 days in the control bays. Power plant influence on total community metabolism was small with less than 10% difference in annual averages between the discharge and control bays (5.22 and 5.58 g O₂/m²/day). The selection for faster metabolic turnover rates in the discharge by was evidenced by a dominance of plankton metabolism over benthic metabolism. The annual average gross planktonic production was around 3 g O₂/m²/day in the discharge bay and around 2 g/m²/day in the control bays.In the model, temperature served as a stimulant to both productivity and respiration. When the isolated effects of increased temperature were simulated the model responded with lower producer biomass and faster rates of organic turnover, as was found in field measurements. These simulations also showed increased nutrient recycling and indicated patterns of temperature-induced migrations. Since power plant operation affected water exchange in the bays, several levels of total water exchange were simulated. These simulations indicated the importance of water exchange as a stabilizing factor, especially for sensitive compartments with rapid turnover rates (i.e. plankton and phosphorus stocks). Simulations of the effects of future power plant units on the bay ecosystem showed no large changes in total metabolism but indicated larger effects of plankton entrainment mortality and temperature-induced migrations of larger organisms.     

Dynamic model of Lake Chozas (León, NW Spain)—Decrease in eco-exergy from clear to turbid phase due to introduction of exotic crayfish

We developed a dynamic model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Chozas, a small shallow water body in León (NW Spain). The calibrated model simulated seasonal dynamics of phosphorus concentrations in major components of the lake's ecological network before and after 1997, the year when an invasive allochthonous crustacean, the Louisiana red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), was introduced into the lake. The shift from clean to turbid phase, due to grazing by crayfish on submerged vegetation, caused a gradual decrease in eco-exergy, reflecting an increase in entropy, related to breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This case study verifies the hypothesis of Marchi et al. (2010) that, after an initial relatively stable state, the allochthonous species may cause an increase in entropy indicating perturbation of the ecosystem.     

Buffer sensitivity of photosynthetic carbon utilisation in eight tropical seagrasses

Some of the mechanisms involved in inorganic carbon (Ci) acquisition by tropical seagrasses from the western Indian Ocean were described by Björk et al. (Mar Biol 129:363–366, 1997). However, since then, it has been found that an additional, buffer-sensitive, system of Ci utilisation may operate in some temperate seagrasses (Hellblom et al. in Aquat Bot 69:55–62, 2001, Hellblom and Axelsson in Photos Res 77:173–191, 2003); this buffer sensitivity indicates a mechanism in which electrogenic H⁺ extrusion may form acidic diffusion boundary layers, in which either HCO ₃ ^? –H⁺ is co-transported into the cells, or where HCO ₃ ^? is converted to CO₂ (as catalysed by carbonic anhydrase) prior to uptake of the latter Ci form. Because a buffer was used in the 1997 study, we found it important to reinvestigate those same eight species, taking into account the direct effect of buffers on this potential mode of Ci acquisition in these plants. In doing so, it was found that all seagrass species investigated except Cymodocea serrulata were sensitive to 50 mM TRIS buffer of the same pH as the natural seawater in which they grew (pH 8.0). Especially sensitive were Halophila ovalis, Halodule wrightii and Cymodocea rotundata, which grow high up in the intertidal zone (only ca. 50–65% of the net photosynthetic activity remained after the buffer additions), followed by the submerged Enhalus acoroides and Syringodium isoetifolium (ca. 75% activity remaining), while Thalassia hemprichii and Thalassodendron ciliatum, which grow in-between the two zones, were less sensitive to buffer additions (ca. 80–85% activity remaining). In addition to buffer sensitivity, all species were also sensitive to acetazolamide (AZ, an inhibitor of extracellular carbonic anhydrase activity) such that ca. 45–80% (but 90% for H. ovalis) of the net photosynthetic activity remained after adding this inhibitor. Raising the pH to 8.8 (in the presence of AZ) drastically reduced net photosynthetic rates (0–14% remaining in all species); it is assumed that this reduction in rates was due to the decreased CO₂ concentration at the higher pH. These results indicate that part of the 1997 results for the same species were due to a buffer effect on net photosynthesis. Based on the present results, it is concluded that (1) photosynthetic Ci acquisition in six of the eight investigated species is based on carbonic anhydrase catalysed HCO ₃ ^? to CO₂ conversions within an acidified diffusion boundary layer, (2) C. serrulata appears to support its photosynthesis by extracellular carbonic anhydrase catalysed CO₂ formation from HCO ₃ ^? without the need for acidic zones, (3) H. ovalis features a system in which H⁺ extrusion may be followed by HCO ₃ ^? –H⁺ co-transport into the cells, and (4) direct, non-H⁺-mediated, uptake of HCO ₃ ^? is improbable for any of the species.     

Influences of canopy structure and physiological traits on flux partitioning between understory and overstory in an eastern Siberian boreal larch forest

Boreal forests play an important role in the global balance of energy and CO₂. Our previous study of elaborate eddy covariance observations in a Siberian boreal larch forest, conducted both above the forest canopy and at the forest floor, revealed a significant contribution of latent heat flux (LE) from the cowberry understory to the whole ecosystem LE. Thus, in the present study, we examined what factors control the partitioning of whole ecosystem LE and CO₂ flux into the understory and overstory vegetation, using detailed leaf-level physiology (for both understory and overstory vegetation) and soil respiration property measurements as well as a multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model. The modeling results showed that the larch overstory's leaf area index (LAI) and vertical profile of leaf photosynthetic capacity were major factors determining the flux partitioning in this boreal forest ecosystem. This is unlike other forest ecosystems that tend to have dense LAI. We concluded that control of the larch overstory's LAI had a relationship with both the coexistence of the larch with the cowberry understory and with the water resources available to the total forest ecosystem.     

Resistance and re-organization of an ecosystem in response to biological invasion: Some hypotheses

Using a dynamic model of Lake Chozas developed by Marchi et al. (2011), we tested three hypotheses about recovery of the indigenous community and water quality after radical changes caused by introduction of an invasive allochthonous crayfish, Procambarus clarkii:

1.

Can the lake resist the pressure of an invasive species, like P. clarkii, by adaptation?

2.

Can the ecosystem recover when all the crayfish are removed and low phosphorus concentrations persist in inflow water?

3.

Does the simulated recovery of submerged vegetation occur at a total phosphorus concentration below 100 mg TP m⁻³, as estimated by Scheffer et al. (1993), Scheffer (1997), Jeppesen et al. (1998) and Zhang et al. (2003)?

We obtained the following answers:

1.

Lake Chozas can at least partly resist by adaptation. A combination of possible parameter changes could lead to a significant increase in eco-exergy.

2.

Removal of the phosphorus represented by crayfish (by harvesting) implies complete recovery of the lake and its eco-exergy, albeit not necessarily with the same organisms having the same properties.

3.

The expected hysteresis created by introduction and harvesting of crayfish is observed under the following conditions: phytoplankton dominance at total phosphorus ≥ about 200-250 mg TP m⁻³ and submerged vegetation returns at total phosphorus < 100 mg TP m⁻³.

     

Use of thermodynamic indices as ecological indicators of the development state of lake ecosystems: 2. Exergy and specific exergy indices

The effectiveness of exergy and specific exergy indices as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems is here tested on a small homogeneous set of shallow lakes which, in spite of their similar nutrient concentrations, morphology and hydrology, show a different trophic state and structure, species composition and abundance. The findings reveal that exergy and specific exergy indices have good negative correlation with phytoplankton biomass and Carlson's trophic state index (TSI) and strong positive correlation to water transparency (the relationship between exergy and eutrophication is clearer if the exergy refers to surface units, rather than volume units) and, hence, that they may be used as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems. The relationship between the responses of the thermodynamic approach and other conventional trophic classification methods (Vollenweider's eutrophication model based on phosphorus loading, the Hillbrich-Ilkowska method and the Vollenweider–OECD classification criterion) previously applied to Lake Trasimeno, was also investigated. The decreasing trend of exergy and specific exergy indices with eutrophication increase appears to be essentially due to the change in species composition and trophic structure, rather than to a different trophic potentiality of the ecosystems investigated. Concerning the identification of the environmental factors responsible for exergy and specific exergy trends, the coherence of the correlation structure between water depth, TSI, exergy and specific exergy indices, suggests that the lake's mean water depth plays a significant role in determining the changes in trophic structure and state (and consequently in exergetic indices) within the set of lakes examined and emphasises the importance of lake morphology in the development and ageing of lake ecosystems.     

An inverse ecosystem model of year-to-year variations with first order approximation to the annual mean fluxes

Ecosystems exhibit nonlinear dynamics that are often difficult to capture in models. Consequently, linearization is commonly applied to remove some of the uncertainties associated with the nonlinear terms. However, since the true model is unknown and the operating point to linearize the model about is uncertain, developing linear ecosystems models is non-trivial. To develop a linear ecosystem model, we assume that the annual mean state of an ecosystem is a minor bias from the long-term mean state. A first order approximation inverse model to govern the year-to-year dynamics of ecosystems whose characteristic time scales are less than 1 year is developed, through theoretically formulation, on the basis of steady state analysis, time scale separation and nondimensionalization. The approach is adept at predicting year-to-year variations and to tracking system response to changes in environmental drivers when compared to data generated with a standard nonlinear NPZD model.     

The development of a multi-species algal ecodynamic model for urban surface water systems and its application

An ecodynamic model that can simulate four phytoplankton species has been developed to deal with the unique characteristics of urban river systems which has manmade river profile, flow controlled by gates, severe eutrophication status, and fragile aquatic ecosystem. The ecodynamic model was developed referencing two typical models: the water quality simulation model WASP and ecological model CAEDYM. The model can simulate 11 state variables: dissolved oxygen, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, organic nitrogen, inorganic phosphorus, organic phosphorus and four phytoplankton species with zooplankton as a boundary condition. The ecodynamic model was applied to Sihai section of the Beijing urban river system, where serious algal blooms broke out in recent years. The dominant phytoplankton species are Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyta, and Cryptophyta. Site-specific data on geometry, meteorology, pollution sources, and existing ecosystem parameters were collected and used for model calibration and verification The model results mimic observed trends of water quality and phytoplankton species succession and can be used for forecasting algal blooms as well as assessment of river management measures.