Ozone response to precursor controls: comparison of data analysis methods with the predictions of photochemical air quality simulation models

Comparisons were made between the predictions of six photochemical air quality simulation models (PAQSMs) and three indicators of ozone response to emission reductions: the ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y and the extent of reaction. The values of the two indicator ratios and the extent of reaction were computed from the model-predicted mixing ratios of ozone and oxidized nitrogen species and were compared to the changes in peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios predicted by the PAQSMs. The ozone changes were determined from the ozone levels predicted for base-case emission levels and for reduced emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). For all simulations, the model-predicted responses of peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios to VOC or NO_x emission reductions were correlated with the base-case extent of reaction and ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y. Peak ozone values increased following NO_x control in 95% (median over all simulations) of the high-ozone (>80 ppbv hourly mixing ratio in the base-case) grid cells having mean afternoon O₃/NO_z ratios less than 5 : 1, O₃/NO_y less than 4 : 1, or extent less than 0.6. Peak ozone levels decreased in response to NO_x reductions in 95% (median over all simulations) of the grid cells having peak hourly ozone mixing ratios greater than 80 ppbv and where mean afternoon O₃/NO_z exceeded 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was greater than 8 : 1, or extent exceeded 0.8. Ozone responses varied in grid cells where O₃/NO_z was between 5 : 1 and 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was between 4 : 1 and 8 : 1, or extent was between 0.6 and 0.8. The responses in such grid cells were affected by ozone responses in upwind grid cells and by the changes in ozone levels along the upwind boundaries of the modeling domains.     

In situ measurements of HNO3, NOy,NO, and O3 in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

In situ measurements of nitric acid (HNO₃), reactive nitrogen (NO_y), nitric oxide (NO), and ozone (O₃) made in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) between 29° and 33°N latitudes during September 1999 are used to examine NO_y partitioning and correlations between the measured species in these regions. The fast-response (1 s) HNO₃ measurements are acquired with a new autonomous CIMS instrument. In the LS, HNO₃ accounts for the majority of NO_y, and the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x accounts for approximately 90% of NO_y. In the UT, the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x varies between 40% and 100% of NO_y. Both HNO₃ and NO_y are strongly positively correlated with O₃, with larger correlation slopes in the UT than in the LS. In the UT at low values of the quantity (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃), it is uncorrelated with O₃, while at higher values, a positive correlation with O₃ is found. Of these two air mass types, those with higher (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃) mixing ratios are likely associated with the presence of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) that is produced by NO_x-hydrocarbon chemistry.     

Analysis of the relationship between ambient levels of O3, NO2 and NO as a function of NOx in the UK

Monitoring data from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network are used to investigate the relationships between ambient levels of ozone (O₃), nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as a function of NO_x, for levels ranging from those typical of UK rural sites to those observed at polluted urban kerbside sites. Particular emphasis is placed on establishing how the level of ‘oxidant’, OX (taken to be the sum of O₃ and NO₂) varies with the level of NO_x, and therefore to gain some insight into the atmospheric sources of OX, particularly at polluted urban locations. The analyses indicate that the level of OX at a given location is made up of NO_x-independent and NO_x-dependent contributions. The former is effectively a regional contribution which equates to the regional background O₃ level, whereas the latter is effectively a local contribution which correlates with the level of primary pollution. The local oxidant source has probable contributions from (i) direct NO₂ emissions, (ii) the thermal reaction of NO with O₂ at high NO_x, and (iii) common-source emission of species which promote NO to NO₂ conversion. The final category may include nitrous acid (HONO), which appears to be emitted directly in vehicle exhaust, and is potentially photolysed to generate HO_x radicals on a short timescale throughout the year at southern UK latitudes. The analyses also show that the local oxidant source has significant site-to-site variations, and possible reasons for these variations are discussed. Relationships between OX and NO_x, based on annual mean data, and fitted functions describing the relative contributions to OX made by NO₂ and O₃, are used to define expressions which describe the likely variation of annual mean NO₂ as a function of NO_x at 14 urban and suburban sites, and which can take account of possible changes in the regional background of O₃.     

Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NO_x and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NO_x and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NO_x and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NO_y, O₃/NO_z, HCHO/NO_y, and H₂O₂/HNO₃ on the definition of NO_x and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O₃/NO_z and HCHO/NO_y indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NO_x and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NO_y and H₂O₂/HNO₃ provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work.     

The relation between ozone,NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments

Research over the past ten years has created a more detailed and coherent view of the relation between O₃ and its major anthropogenic precursors, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). This article presents a review of insights derived from photochemical models and field measurements. The ozone–precursor relationship can be understood in terms of a fundamental split into a NO_x-senstive and VOC-sensitive (or NO_x-saturated) chemical regimes. These regimes are associated with the chemistry of odd hydrogen radicals and appear in different forms in studies of urbanized regions, power plant plumes and the remote troposphere. Factors that affect the split into NO_x-sensitive and VOC-sensitive chemistry include: VOC/NO_x ratios, VOC reactivity, biogenic hydrocarbons, photochemical aging, and rates of meteorological dispersion. Analyses of ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity from 3D photochemical models show a consistent pattern, but predictions for the impact of reduced NO_x and VOC in indivdual locations are often very uncertain. This uncertainty can be identified by comparing predictions from different model scenarios that reflect uncertainties in meteorology, anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Several observation-based approaches have been proposed that seek to evaluate ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity directly from ambient measurements (including ambient VOC, reactive nitrogen, and peroxides). Observation-based approaches have also been used to evaluate emission rates, ozone production efficiency, and removal rates of chemically active species. Use of these methods in combination with models can significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with model predictions.     

Assessment of the Ozone-Nitrogen Oxide-Volatile Organic Compound Sensitivity of Mexico City through an Indicator-Based Approach: Measurements and Numerical Simulations Comparison

Abstract

The ozone (O₃) sensitivity to nitrogen oxides (NO_x, or nitric oxide [NO] + nitrogen dioxide [NO₂]) versus volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) is a current issue of scientific controversy. To shed light on this issue, we compared measurements of the indicator species O₃/NO_y (where NO_y represents the sum of NO + NO₂ + nitric acid [HNO₃] + peroxyacetyl nitrate [PAN] + others), NO_y, and the semiempirically derived O₃/NO_{z surrogate} (where NO_{z surrogate} is the derived surrogate NO_z, and NO_z represents NO_x reaction products, or NO_y – NO_x) with results of numerical predictions reproducing the transition regimes between NO_x and VOC sensitivities. Ambient air concentrations of O₃, NO_x, and NO_y were measured from April 14 to 25, 2004 in one downwind receptor site of photo-chemically aged air masses within Mexico City. MCMA-derived transition values for an episode day occurring during the same monitoring period were obtained through a series of photochemical simulations using the Multiscale Climate and Chemistry Model (MCCM). The comparison between the measured indicator species and the simulated spatial distribution of the indicators O₃/NO_y, O₃/NO_{z surrogate}, and NO_y in MCMA suggest that O₃ in this megacity is likely VOC-sensitive. This is in opposition to past studies that, on the basis of the observed morning VOC/NO_x ratios, have concluded that O₃ in Mexico City is NO_x-sensitive. Simulated MCMA-derived sensitive transition values for O₃/NO_y, hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂)/HNO₃, and NO_y were found to be in agreement with threshold criteria proposed for other regions in North America and Europe, although the transition crossover for O₃/NO_z and O₃/HNO₃ was not consistent with values reported elsewhere. An additional empirical evaluation of weekend/weekday differences in average maximum O₃ concentrations and 6:00- to 9:00-a.m. NO_x and NO levels registered at the same site in April 2004 indirectly confirmed the above results. A preliminary conclusion is that additional reductions in NO_x emissions in MCMA might cause an increase in presently high O₃ levels.     

Summertime photochemical ozone formation in Santiago,Chile

The city of Santiago, Chile experiences frequent high pollution episodes and as a consequence very high ozone concentrations, which are associated with health problems including increasing daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. The development of ozone abatement strategies requires the determination of the potential of each pollutant to produce ozone, taking into account known mechanisms and chemical kinetics in addition to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, the photochemical formation of ozone during a summer campaign carried out from March 8–20, 2005 has been investigated using an urban photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). The MCM box model has been constrained with 10 min averages of simultaneous measurements of HONO, HCHO, CO, NO, j(O¹D), j(NO₂), 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and meteorological parameters. The O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivities have been determined by simulating ozone formation at different VOC and NO_x concentrations. Ozone sensitivity analyses showed that photochemical ozone formation is VOC-limited under average summertime conditions in Santiago. The results of the model simulations have been compared with a set of potential empirical indicator relationships including H₂O₂/HNO₃, HCHO/NO_y and O₃/NO_z. The ozone forming potential of each measured VOC has been determined using the MCM box model. The impacts of the above study on possible summertime ozone control strategies in Santiago are discussed.     

Chemistry of HOx radicals in the upper troposphere

Aircraft observations from three recent missions (STRAT, SUCCESS, SONEX) are synthesized into a theoretical analysis of the factors controlling the concentrations of HO_x radicals (HO_x=OH+peroxy) and the larger reservoir family HO_y (HO_y=HO_x+2H₂O₂+2CH₃OOH+HNO₂+HNO₄) in the upper troposphere. Photochemical model calculations capture 66% of the variance of observed HO_x concentrations. Two master variables are found to determine the variance of the 24 h average HO_x concentrations: the primary HO_x production rate, P(HO_x), and the concentration of nitrogen oxide radicals (NO_x=NO+NO₂). We use these two variables as a coordinate system to diagnose the photochemistry of the upper troposphere and map the different chemical regimes. Primary HO_x production is dominated by the O(¹D)+H₂O reaction when [H₂O]>100 ppmv, and by photolysis of acetone (and possibly other convected HO_x precursors) under drier conditions. For the principally northern midlatitude conditions sampled by the aircraft missions, the HO_x yield from acetone photolysis ranges from 2 to 3. Methane oxidation amplifies the primary HO_x source by a factor of 1.1–1.9. Chemical cycling within the HO_x family has a chain length of 2.5–7, while cycling between the HO_x family and its HO_y reservoirs has a chain length of 1.6–2.2. The number of ozone molecules produced per HO_y molecule consumed ranges from 4 to 12, such that ozone production rates vary between 0.3 and 5 ppbv d⁻¹ in the upper troposphere. Three chemical regimes (NO_x-limited, transition, NO_x-saturated) are identified to describe the dependence of HO_x concentrations and ozone production rates on the two master variables P(HO_x) and [NO_x]. Simplified analytical expressions are derived to express these dependences as power laws for each regime. By applying an eigenlifetime analysis to the HO_x–NO_x–O₃ chemical system, we find that the decay of a perturbation to HO_y in the upper troposphere (as from deep convection) is represented by four dominant modes with the longest time scale being factors of 2–3 times longer than the steady-state lifetime of HO_y.     

Ground level ozone concentrations and its association with NOx and meteorological parameters in Kathmandu valley, Nepal

This paper summarizes the results of a yearlong continuous measurements of gaseous pollutants, NO, NO₂, NO_x and O₃ in the ambient air at Kathmandu valley. Measured concentration of the pollutants in study area is a function of time. NO, NO₂ and O₃ peak occurred in succession in presence of sunlight. At the time of maximum O₃ concentration most of the NO_x are utilized. The diurnal cycle of ground level ozone concentrations, revealed mid-day peak with lower nocturnal concentrations and inverse relationship exists between O₃ and NO_x, which are evidences of photochemical O₃ formation. The observed ground level ozone during monsoon is slight lower than the pre-monsoon value. Further, lack of rainfall and higher temperature, solar radiation in the pre-monsoon have given rise to the gradual build up of ozone and it is lowest during winter. Ground level ozone concentrations measured during bandha (general strike) and weekend are 19% and 13% higher than those measured during weekdays. The most effective ozone abatement strategy for Kathmandu Valley may be control of NO_x emissions.     

Atmospheric transport of urban-derived NH(x): Evidence from nitrogen concentration and delta(15)N in epilithic mosses at Guiyang, SW China

Nitrogen concentration and δ¹⁵N in 175 epilithic moss samples were investigated along four directions from urban to rural sites in Guiyang, SW China. The spatial variations of moss N concentration and δ¹⁵N revealed that atmospheric N deposition is dominated by NH_x-N from two major sources (urban sewage NH₃ and agricultural NH₃), the deposition of urban-derived NH_x followed a point source pattern characterized by an exponential decline with distance from the urban center, while the agricultural-derived NH_x was shown to be a non-point source. The relationship between moss N concentration and distance (y = 1.5e^−0.13x + 1.26) indicated that the maximum transporting distance of urban-derived NH_x averaged 41 km from the urban center, and it could be determined from the relationship between moss δ¹⁵N and distance [y = 2.54 ln(x) − 12.227] that urban-derived NH_x was proportionally lower than agricultural-derived NH_x in N deposition at sites beyond 17.2 km from the urban center. Consequently, the variation of urban-derived NH_x with distance from the urban center could be modeled as y = 56.272e^−0.116x − 0.481 in the Guiyang area.     

Effects of uncertainty in the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide on model-simulated ozone control strategies

We evaluated the effect of a 20% reduction in the rate constant of the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide to produce nitric acid (OH+NO₂→HNO₃) on model predictions of ozone mixing ratios ([O₃]) and the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) for reducing [O₃]. By comparing a model simulation with the new rate constant to a base case scenario, we found that the [O₃] increase was between 2 and 6% for typical rural conditions and between 6 and 16% for typical urban conditions. The increases in [O₃] were less than proportional to the reduction in the OH+NO₂ rate constant because of negative feedbacks in the photochemical mechanism. Next, we used two different approaches to evaluate how the new OH+NO₂ rate constant changed the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of VOC and NO_x: first, we evaluated the effect on [O₃] sensitivity to small changes in emissions of VOC (d[O₃]/dE_VOC) and NO_x (d[O₃]/dE_NOx); and secondly, we used the empirical kinetic modeling approach to evaluate the effect on the level of emissions reduction necessary to reduce [O₃] to a specified level. Both methods showed that reducing the OH+NO₂ rate constant caused control strategies for VOC to become less effective relative to NO_x control strategies. We found, however, that d[O₃]/dE_VOC and d[O₃]/dE_NOx did not quantitatively predict the magnitude of the change in the control strategy because the [O₃] response was nonlinear with respect to the size of the emissions reduction. We conclude that model sensitivity analyses calculated using small emissions changes do not accurately characterize the effect of uncertainty in model inputs (in this case, the OH+NO₂ rate constant) on O₃ attainment strategies. Instead, the effects of changes in model inputs should be studied using large changes in precursor emissions to approximate realistic attainment scenarios.     

Regression modelling of hourly NOx and NO2 concentrations in urban air in London

Based on hourly measurements of NO_x NO₂ and O₃ and meteorological data, an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and a first-order autocorrelation (AR) model were developed to analyse the regression and prediction of NO_x and NO₂ concentrations in London. Primary emissions and wind speed are the most important factors influencing NO_x concentrations; in addition to these two, reaction of NO with O₃ is also a major factor influencing NO₂ concentrations. The AR model resulted in high correlation coefficients (R > 0.95) for the NO_x and NO₂ regression based on a whole year's data, and is capable of predicting NO₂ (R = 0.83) and NO_x (R = 0.65) concentrations when the explanatory variables were available. The analysis of the structure of regression models by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicates that the regression models are stable. The results of the OLS model indicate that there was an exceptional NO₂ source, other than primary emission and reaction of NO with O₃, in the air pollution episode in London in December 1991.     

Climatic forcing of nitrogen oxides through changes in tropospheric ozone and methane; global 3D model studies

A three-dimensional global chemical tracer model and a radiation transfer model have been used to study the role of NO_x emissions for radiative forcing of climate. Through production of tropospheric O₃, NO_x emissions lead to positive radiative forcing and warming. But by affecting the concentration of OH radicals, NO_x also reduces the levels of CH₄, thereby giving negative forcing and cooling. The lifetime of NO_x varies from hours to days, giving large spatial variations in the levels of NO_x. We have selected geographical regions representing different chemical and physical conditions, and chemical and radiative effects of reducing NO_x emissions by 20% in each region are studied. Due to nonlinearities in the O₃ chemistry as well as differences in convective activity, there are large geographical differences in the effect of NO_x on O₃ as well as variations in the annual profile of the changes. The effect of NO_x emissions on methane is also found to depend on the localisation of the emissions. The calculated ozone and methane forcing are of similar magnitude but of opposite sign. The methane effect acts on a global scale with a delay of approximately a decade, while the ozone effect is of regional character and occurs during weeks.     

NMOC,ozone, and organic aerosol in the southeastern United States, 1999–2007: 2. Ozone trends and sensitivity to NMOC emissions in Atlanta,Georgia

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) measurements made in Atlanta, Georgia from 1999–2007 are used with nitrogen oxide (NO_x or NO_y) and ozone (O₃) data to investigate relationships between O₃ precursors and peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in the city. Data from a WNW-to-ENE transect of sites illustrate that the mean urban peak 8-hour O₃ excess constitutes about 20% of the peak 8-hour O₃ measured at the area-wide maximum O₃ site when air-mass movement is from the northwest quadrant; local influence is potentially greater on days with more stagnation or recirculation. The peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in Atlanta increase as (1) surface temperature (T), ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, and previous-day peak O₃ concentrations increase, and as (2) relative humidity, surface wind speeds, and ratios of NMOC-to-NO_y decrease. An observation-based statistical model is introduced to relate area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations to ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, while accounting for the non-linear dependences of peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations on meteorological factors. On the majority of days when the area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ exceeds 75 ppbv, meteorologically-adjusted peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations increase as ambient NMOC concentrations increase (NMOC sensitive) and ambient NO_y concentrations decrease. This result contrasts with regional conditions in which O₃ formation appears to be NO_x-sensitive in character. The results offer observationally-based information of relevance to O₃ management strategies in the Atlanta area, potentially contributing to “weight-of-evidence” assessments.     

Measurement of surface ozone and its precursors in an urban area in South Brazil

Weekly and seasonal variations of surface ozone and their precursors – nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide-associated with meteorological parameters (wind direction, temperature, solar radiation) – are reported. Measurements were performed continuously during 2006 at two sampling stations located in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Results have shown that O₃ concentrations remained almost constant between weekdays. Levels of NO_x precursors decreased especially on Sundays, due to lighter traffic. The seasonal variation has shown a maximum O₃ concentration during summer and spring while NO_x and NO₂ have maxima at the colder months. The daily cycle of highest ozone concentrations reveals a lower nightly level and an inverse relation between O₃ and NO_x, evidencing the photochemical formation of O₃. There are seasonal variation and source heterogeneity.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.     

Characterizations of chemical oxidants in Mexico City: A regional chemical dynamical model (WRF-Chem) study

The formation of chemical oxidants, particularly ozone, in Mexico City were studied using a newly developed regional chemical/dynamical model (WRF-Chem). The magnitude and timing of simulated diurnal cycles of ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x)_, and the maximum and minimum O₃ concentrations are generally consistent with surface measurements. Our analysis shows that the strong diurnal cycle in O₃ is mainly attributable to photochemical variations, while diurnal cycles of CO and NO_x mainly result from variations of emissions and boundary layer height. In a sensitivity study, oxidation reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons (HCs) and alkenes yield highest peak O₃ production rates (20 and 18 ppbv h⁻¹, respectively). Alkene oxidations, which are generally faster, dominate in early morning. By late morning, alkene concentrations drop, and oxidations of aromatics dominate, with lesser contributions from alkanes and CO. The sensitivity of O₃ concentrations to NO_x and HC emissions was assessed. Our results show that daytime O₃ production is HC-limited in the Mexico City metropolitan area, so that increases in HC emissions increase O₃ chemical production, while increases in NO_x emissions decrease O₃ concentrations. However, increases in both NO_x and HC emissions yield even greater O₃ increases than increases in HCs alone. Uncertainties in HC emissions estimates give large uncertainties in calculated daytime O₃, while NO_x emissions uncertainties are less influential. However, NO_x emissions are important in controlling O₃ at night.     

Simple model for estimating dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction in a polluted nocturnal boundary layer

Determining the destructions of both ozone and odd oxygen, O_x, in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is important to evaluate the regional ozone budget and overnight ozone accumulation. This work develops a simple method to determine the dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction at a polluted nocturnal boundary layer. The destruction of O_x can also be determined simultaneously. The method is based on O₃ and NO₂ profiles and their surface measurements. Linkages between the dry deposition velocities of O₃ and NO₂ and between the dry deposition loss of O_x and its chemical loss are constructed and used. Field measurements are made at an agricultural site to demonstrate the application of the model. The model estimated nocturnal O₃ dry deposition velocities from 0.13 to 0.19 cm s^?1, very close to those previously obtained for similar land types. Additionally, dry deposition and chemical reactions account for 60 and 40% of the overall nocturnal ozone loss, respectively; ozone dry deposition accounts for 50% of the overall nocturnal loss of O_x, dry deposition of NO₂ accounts for another 20%, and chemical reactions account for the remaining 30%. The proposed method enables the use of measurements made in typical ozone field studies to evaluate various nocturnal destructions of O₃ and O_x in a polluted environment.     

The use of ambient data to corroborate analyses of ozone control strategies

Data from environmental-chamber studies and photochemical box-model simulations were used to evaluate and revise a method for developing a qualitative understanding of the sensitivity of ozone formation at a particular time and place to changes in concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The revised method requires measurements of ozone, NO, and either NO_x or NO_y. The sensitivities of the method to biases in measurements were evaluated. The method potentially can be used for qualitative assessment of VOC versus NO_x limitation, comparison with the predictions of grid-based photochemical air-quality models, and evaluation of trends over time in the relative effectiveness of VOC versus NO_x controls.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.