Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choice.     

Commodity production as restoration driver in the Brazilian Amazon? Pasture re-agro-forestation with cocoa (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Theobroma cacao</Emphasis>) in southern Pará

The increasing demand for agricultural commodities is a major cause of tropical deforestation. However, pressure is increasing for greater sustainability of commodity value chains. This includes the demand to establish new crop plantations and pasture areas on already deforested land so that new forest clearing for agriculture is minimized. Where tree crops are planted as part of agroforestry systems on deforested land, this amounts to a form of re-agro-forestation which can generate environmental benefits in addition to crop production. Here, we discuss a case where agroforestry systems based on cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are being established on crop and pasture land in the south of Pará state, Brazilian Amazon. The adoption of cocoa by farmers and ranchers of the region is stimulated by the coincidence of (1) favorable prospects for cocoa on the national and international markets including the expectation of a global cocoa supply gap; (2) environmental policies obliging land owners to reforest excess cleared land with native trees, with agroforests based on the native cocoa tree being an economically attractive option; and (3) biophysical conditions (especially soil fertility) favorable for growing cocoa in part of the region. We show that in the state of Pará at least 1.26 million hectares of naturally high-fertility soils in deforested areas outside legally protected and indigenous lands are potentially suitable for cocoa production with low agrochemical inputs, sufficient to make a significant contribution to closing the predicted supply gap. Their actual suitability depends on their state of degradation after years of pasture use and the availability of technologies and finance to convert them into tree crop agroforests. We discuss the significant environmental benefits of pasture re-agro-forestation with cocoa-based systems, including reduced emissions of up to 135 Mg of carbon per hectare compared to the historically common scenario of planting cocoa after forest clearing. We identify important research questions related to the scaling up of this practice and the maximization of its environmental benefits. We conclude that the coincidence of the afore-mentioned factors could drive a re-agro-forestation frontier in this part of the Amazon, with potential for positive outcomes in terms of commodity production while generating social and environmental benefits.     

A conceptual framework for analyzing deltas as coupled social–ecological systems: an example from the Amazon River Delta

At the nexus of watersheds, land, coastal areas, oceans, and human settlements, river delta regions pose specific challenges to environmental governance and sustainability. Using the Amazon Estuary-Delta region (AD) as our focus, we reflect on the challenges created by the high degree of functional interdependencies shaping social–ecological dynamics of delta regions. The article introduces the initial design of a conceptual framework to analyze delta regions as coupled social–ecological systems (SES). The first part of the framework is used to define a delta SES according to a problem and/or collective action dilemma. Five components can be used to define a delta SES: social–economic systems, governance systems, ecosystems-resource systems, topographic-hydrological systems, and oceanic-climate systems. These components are used in association with six types of telecoupling conditions: socio-demographic, economic, governance, ecological, material, and climatic-hydrological. The second part of the framework presents a strategy for the analysis of collective action problems in delta regions, from sub-delta/local to delta to basin levels. This framework is intended to support both case studies and comparative analysis. The article provides illustrative applications of the framework to the AD. First, we apply the framework to define and characterize the AD as coupled SES. We then utilize the framework to diagnose an example of collective action problem related to the impacts of urban growth, and urban and industrial pollution on small-scale fishing resources. We argue that the functional interdependencies characteristic of delta regions require new approaches to understand, diagnose, and evaluate the current and future impacts of social–ecological changes and potential solutions to the sustainability dilemmas of delta regions.     

西南山地丘陵区典型乡镇环境因素对农村新建居民点布局与复垦的影响差异分析

农村居民点作为中国城乡二元化的重要体现形式,是农村人地关系问题产生的主导因素和农村社会的基本单元。该文以重庆市石柱县临溪镇2010~2014年的新建居民点和复垦数据为主要数据源,采用偏离度和空间变异系数分析各环境因素对居民点新建与复垦分布的影响,并利用极值法对新建居民适宜区域和居民点复垦重点区域进行选择。结果表明:不同环境因素对新建居民点与居民点复垦的空间分布影响差异性明显,道路和场镇因素对2类居民点空间数量分布的影响最大。居民点复垦在道路与耕地2影响因素的偏离度最大值分别为0.69和–0.503,这2类因素是影响居民点复垦的主要因素。新建居民点在道路和坡度的偏离度值分别为–0.742和–0.106,该2类因素是影响新建居民点的关键因素。居民点复垦总体偏离度绝对值为1.53,对居民点总体布局的影响比新建居民点大。环境因素分级因子对新建与居民点复垦影响差异突出,新建居民点靠近城镇、道路、河流以及分布于6°~15°缓坡的趋向明显;居民点复垦远离城镇、道路及分布于陡坡的趋势突出。利用极值法研究发现,道路0~10 m和坡度6°~15°的分级因子组合为最适宜的新建居民点区域,道路大于40 m和耕地70~10 m的分级因子组合为居民点复垦的重点区域。该研究对典型山地丘陵区的新建农村居民点选址及复垦重点区域选择具有理论意义与实践价值。     

Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

基于空间自相关模型的农村居民点时空演变格局与特征研究

农村居民点作为农村人口重要空间聚集区,其空间布局、演变特征受历史、自然、社会、经济、传统文化等多重因素的影响。科学识别农村居民点的时空分布形态,并揭示其内在的变化规律和驱动因素,对促进农村居民点科学规划、提高农村土地资源空间布局优化均具有重要意义。利用都江堰市2005和2012年两期遥感影像提取农村居民点、城镇、道路、河流等矢量数据,借助RS、GIS空间分析技术,定量研究都江堰市农村居民点时空变化过程、格局和特征,并引入空间自回归模型深入分析不同环境因素对农村居民点空间布局的影响程度。研究结果表明:(1)都江堰市农村居民点的空间分布密度存在显著的空间正相关性,即密度值较高或较低的地区在空间上呈现显著的聚集状态,但局部的空间异质性在增强;(2)密度的高值集群主要集中分布在都江堰市东南部沙西线沿线以及南部成青快速通道一线,并且有进一步沿道路延线纵深扩张的趋势,而密度的低值集群由于受地形的影响,在空间分布上变化不大,主要位于龙门山沿线的乡镇;(3)2005~2012年,地形位指数每增加1%,农村居民点的空间密度减少0.505%,而距城镇、河流和道路的距离每增加1%,农村居民点的空间密度分别增加0.124%、0.144%、0.006%;(4)不同环境因素对农村居民点空间分布的影响程度大小为:地形影响城镇辐射影响河流影响道路影响,并且随着时间的推移,各环境因素的影响程度都在不断地增强。该研究以期为今后同类研究提供一定的方法借鉴,为农村居民点动态变化监测、农村土地节约集约利用、新农村规划等提供理论方法和技术应用支撑。     

Developing REDD+ policies and measures from the bottom-up for the buffer zones of Amazonian protected areas

A key activity in Phase 1 of REDD+—the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) forestry mitigation mechanism—is the development of policies and measures (PAMs) to define where and how emissions reductions and carbon stock enhancements and conservation will be achieved. This paper provides contextual data and information for the development of PAMs specifically for the buffer zones of protected areas in the Peruvian Amazon, sites where REDD+ has the potential to generate considerable social and ecological co-benefits. The study sites are the buffer zones of two national parks, Yanachaga-Chemillen (YChNP) in central Peru and Manu (MNP) in the south-east. Data were collected through smallholder household surveys (n?=?200), covering livelihood strategies, land use practices and preference rankings of five REDD+ criteria. The findings suggest that PAMs in buffer zones could realistically achieve an additional ~10?% conservation of remaining forest and between 25 and 70?% additional reforestation of non-forest areas on private lands. The paper argues that in areas where agricultural co-operatives exist, such as MNP, these should be engaged in national REDD+ PAMs and supported by an international NGO; in areas where smallholders operate individually, such as YChNP, international NGOs may be best placed to gain local trust and thereby raise participation rates. The environmental effectiveness of REDD+ conservation PAMs could be greater in areas of intense agricultural production, yet financial and technical support for reforestation may offer the most effective avenue for carbon mitigation in these areas.     

Vietnamese Uplands: Environmental and Socio-Economic Perspective of Forest Land Allocation and Deforestation Process

Vietnam, in the ongoing transition to market economies, has to cope with high rural poverty and a dramatic process of forest loss and environment degradation, particularly in the mountainous regions. The government considers rural poverty as the main cause of environment degradation, associated with slash-and-burn cultivation and to an unclear definition of property rights on forest land. In 1993, the government launched a Forest Land Allocation programme aiming to lease forest lands to individual households and, on this basis, to solve food security problems, halt the increasing environment degradation and preserve the remaining forests.To evaluate the results of this land reform policy, two upland pilot communes have been intensively monitored. The environmental and economic impacts of the forest land reform allocation in the two study areas are presented, after providing a background on the Vietnamese situation of mountain zones. On the basis of these findings, it is discussed as to whether the current forest land allocation process may actually promote local development and natural resources conservation, and under what conditions. Deforestation problems must be tackled also with new macroeconomic policies (e.g. credit programmes to support sustainable agriculture practices) and social policy (e.g. reduction of demographic pressure), together with the reform of the State institutions (e.g. State Forest Enterprises) involved in management of the forest areas.     

An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

Important factors governing exposure of the population and countermeasure application in rural settlements of the Russian Federation in the long-term after the Chernobyl accident.

Rural settlements located in areas of the Russian Federation contaminated after the Chernobyl accident and exceeding an annual dose of 1 mSv a-1 have been classified according to 137Cs contamination density, internal dose and the neighbourhood of forests. It has been shown that, with the exception of the most contaminated areas, the internal doses decreased in accordance with a decline in 137Cs availability for plant root uptake. An inverse tendency was observed in areas with 137Cs contamination above 555 kBq m-2 which can be explained by a reduction or even termination of countermeasure application and by an increasing consumption of forest products in areas where restrictive countermeasures are still implemented. Twenty-seven settlements have been studied to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures applied previously and to identify the most important factors governing the radiation exposure to the population and its change with time. It has been shown that the effectiveness of countermeasures which resulted in a decrease of up to 40% of doses has a tendency to decline in the long term. The need for continuation of remediation in rural settlements was evaluated both for selected settlements and extrapolated to the whole contaminated area and it has been shown that the application of countermeasures will be of importance at least up to the year 2045. Rather high effectiveness in terms of internal dose reduction (factor of 2-2.5) of radical improvement (disking, ploughing and reseeding) and administration of Cs binders to animals (Ferrocyn) was demonstrated for the selected settlements. It could be demonstrated that for forest-remote settlements there is a linear dependence between internal dose normalised to the density of contamination and the proportion of peat soils around settlements. For near-forest settlements, this dependence was less pronounced which can be explained by the high contribution of forest food products to the internal dose. Milk is still the major dose-forming product in rural Russian settlements (its contribution to internal dose in forest-remote settlements is above 70%); however, in near-forest settlements, the contribution of mushrooms to the internal dose is comparable to the contribution from milk.     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

Benefits from and threats to European treeline ecosystem services: an exploratory study of stakeholders and governance

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is being increasingly applied in environmental governance and science. To safeguard key ES in changing and complex social–ecological systems such as treeline areas, we need to (1) map key ES in different types of treeline landscapes, (2) identify the stakeholders benefiting from and threatening ES, and (3) examine how ES could be governed more sustainably. We explore these questions in European treeline areas by using quantitative and qualitative social science techniques to analyse responses from a survey of local scientific experts in 20 altitudinal and polar treeline areas in 15 European countries. In contrast to the prevalent consideration of treeline areas as a single type of a social–ecological system, we show that European treeline areas can be divided into two types that significantly differ in the delivery of ES. Our analyses allowed us to categorize stakeholders according to their benefits from and threats to ES; “Green key players” formed the most numerous group, while smaller number of stakeholder groups was categorized as “Harmless crowd”, “Occasional stressors”, and “Risky users”. However, behaviour of stakeholders is very much site-specific. Of 595 pairs of stakeholders analysed, we found <5 EU-wide “Allies” and “Opponents”. Recommendations for improved governance include adjusting governance instruments to specific problems in divergent treeline systems and creating participatory structures where stakeholders better interact with scientists and can genuinely influence management decisions.     

基于GIS的桐庐县农村居民点空间格局研究

以浙江省桐庐县为研究区,以DEM和1996、2004年桐庐县土地利用现状图为数据源,利用GIS空间分析方法,研究了1996~2004年桐庐县农村居民点空间格局及其变化特征。研究表明：①桐庐县农村居民点主要分布在河谷平原地区,且高山区的农村居民点呈现向河谷平原集中的趋势。②桐庐县农村居民点呈现出两条比较明显的分布带：一条是江南镇-桐庐镇-富春江镇,另一条是横村镇-莪山畲族乡-钟山乡。③桐庐县农村居民点空间分布模式主要有3种：团状分布、带状分布、分散分布。在比较开阔的河谷平原地区农村居民点主要以团聚状分布;在比较狭窄的河谷地区,农村居民点主要以带状分布;而分散分布的农村居民点主要出现在海拔较高的山区。④地形等自然环境条件决定了桐庐县农村居民点的总体空间格局,但城镇发展、交通条件、政策引导对桐庐县农村居民点空间格局变化有着重要的影响。     

都江堰市农村居民点时空演变与驱动因素研究

科学辨识农村居民点时空演变特征及驱动因素对农村居民点布局优化、农村土地节约集约利用和村级土地利用规划编制具有重要意义。以都江堰市为研究区，借助格网分析法和地理探测器等方法，定量分析都江堰市近十年农村居民点时空演变特征和驱动因素。结果表明：（1）都江堰市农村居民点空间分布差异性显著。东部和东南部农耕地区居民点密度较大，聚集程度较高；北部和西北部丘陵山区居民点沿河谷呈带状分布；（2）2005～2015年，居民点数量和用地面积变化时序性较为明显。总体上先增加后减少，居民点数量从16 543个增长至26 018个再减少至25 890个，居民点用地面积从6 161.43 hm ²增长至7 265.43 hm ²再减少至7 043.01 hm ²；（3）居民点用地面积动态变化主要受地形条件、耕地面积和离道路距离的影响，并且农村居民点空间分布表现出一定的耕地和道路指向性；（4）影响力P值计算结果受划分类型的影响，但对于结果的排序影响不大。     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Analysis of two schemes using micro hydroelectric power (MHPs) in the Amazon with environmental sustainability and energy and economic feasibility

A major problem for sustainable development in the Amazon is the difficulty of supplying electric power to isolated communities, which represent a considerable share of the population. This problem has been a major obstacle to productive activities (especially extractive and agricultural) in such communities, thus significantly contributing to rural drift and creating social problems in larger cities. In that case, one way to supply electric power would be to use the huge network of small rivers in the region by implementing Micro Hydroelectric Power Plants (MHPs). However, this type of hydropower project requires a set of technical assessments in order to obtain better value for its cost-effectiveness from the perspective of sustainable development. Thus, based on a survey of energy demand and the local hydrological and topographical characteristics, two possible MHP designs for the hydrological site under analysis were suggested. Assessments of hydropower, economic and environmental aspects were developed. MHP designs were compared with the diesel generator design of the community under focus. Comparison showed that the MHP designs are feasible in terms of energy to meet local demand; economically, they are more feasible than the diesel generator and are environmentally sustainable, mainly because such designs involve low-head, run-of-river MHPs and the flooded areas were simulated and are not larger than 0.02 km². Therefore, the information provided by these assessments constitutes important data, serving as subsidies for MHP implementation projects, which shall contribute to sustainable development in the region.     

Assessing the impacts of sustainable development projects in the Amazon: the DURAMAZ experiment

Since 1992, a boom of “sustainable development projects” has been registered in the Brazilian Amazon, turning it into a kind of open-air laboratory for sustainability. But their real impacts remain unclear, especially because of inadequate evaluation tools. A new device is therefore needed to unveil the inner mechanisms of development aid despite the difficulties linked with the diversity of contexts or the heterogeneity in the relevant parameters. Those are the challenges we met when we engaged in comparing the impacts of sustainable development programs in 13 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon in order to identify determining factors of sustainability. To achieve our objective, we conceived an indicator system based on the results of intensive fieldwork, including social, economic, environmental, and biographical issues. Our results show that the most prominent problem of sustainability—evaluation of effectiveness—has not been tackled; life conditions and environmental preservation continue to appear antagonistic. At the same time, variability appears among outwardly coherent social groups, showing that a case-to-case approach is definitely indispensable and confirming the need to go “beyond panaceas” to find resolutions. This article successively addresses three points. First, we present the starting point of our research, or how the Amazon region was turned into a laboratory for sustainability and how our research project aimed at analyzing the consequences of this trend. Second, we discuss how available indicator systems fail to respond to the need for a multidimensional evaluation at the local level and, therefore, how we constituted our own analytical tool. Third, we focus on some results that can be derived from our system, especially in terms of identifying key factors needed to achieve sustainability in the Amazon.     

Smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan: how culture and history matter

A longitudinal survey was applied to 499 smallholder agriculturalist households in Mexico’s southern Yucatán region to determine whether different cultural expectations had led to the formation and coexistence of different types of human–environment interactions. A three center cluster analysis was used, and two agricultural adaptive strategies were found to coexist: a diversified subsistence strategy built largely by individuals who were smallholder agriculturalists in their place of origin, and one generated mostly by non-agriculturalists who migrated to the southern Yucatán to make agriculture their business during the last agrarian reform. Each strategy followed unique family trajectories and established distinct human–environment interactions. The findings suggest that those who emphasize commercial agriculture have a better standard of living. Nevertheless, their improved on-farm livelihoods—judged by material, physiological, and educational indicators—comes at the cost of higher risks to their adaptive system and adverse environmental consequences.