Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.     

Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions

Climate, farmers’ actions and previous cultivation history influence regional crop yields and drive autonomous adaptation in time. Proceeding climate change will induce needs for various adaptation measures in the future, especially in the northern regions. We investigated how farms take advantage of novel opportunities in Finland as dictated by the biophysical environment, farmer experience and knowledge, and the dynamics of the socioeconomic environment. Using Finland as a case, we aimed to characterize the relation of regional climate and yield development of the four major cereal crops since 1965 and of spring rape since 1978. Yields in the northernmost regions were most responsive to growing season temperature sum and precipitation. However, yield levels in southern relative to northern and eastern areas have polarized through the period, which might be an indication of a socioeconomic rather than a climate-related response. As socioeconomic factors can be more deterministic for targeting autonomous adaptation on farms, regionally planned proactive adaptation strategies are needed to prepare for long-term changes such as the climate change.     

Toward sustainable adaptation to future climate change: insights from vulnerability and resilience approaches analyzing agrarian system of Iran

There is no certainty that adaptation to climate change is sustainable, and new approaches to assess current climate change adaptation trajectories are sorely needed. In this paper, we review the farmer-focused approaches (typical of vulnerability approaches) and agro-ecosystem-focused approaches (typical of resilience approaches). We propose that a combination of the two may be a better way to conceptualize sustainable adaptation to future climate change within an agro-ecological system. To test our hypothesis, we use the case study of Iran, a land that has shown both tremendous resilience and vulnerability in its agro-ecological system. We explore the changes that have occurred in the Iranian farming system and their implications for farmers’ resilience to climate change through an integrated lens combining vulnerability approaches and resilience approaches. During the previous five decades, we describe how Iranian peasants have become small farmers, the land tenure system has changed from a traditional landlord-sharecropping system to family farms, and the quantity and quality of the agro-ecological resources have changed considerably. Our integrative approach provides important insights for both research and policy. We show that combining the two approaches can have far-reaching implications for farmers’ adaptation to future climate change knowledge, policy, and practice since one approach aims to decrease farmers vulnerability and the other approach aims to build resilient agro-ecosystems.     

Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe

There is now overwhelming evidence of climate change and variability impacts in Africa, among them a reduction in agricultural production. This is a cause for concern given that 70 % of the continent’s population derives its livelihoods directly from rain-fed agriculture. There is need for adaptation strategies at all levels from the national to the local level to mitigate these adverse impacts from climate change. It is important to take advantage of and strengthen already existing household and community strategies. This study used both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to explore the role that livelihood dynamics play in local-level decision-making for adaptation to everyday vulnerability. Risk is considered to extend beyond climate to non-climatic stressors, and the notion of climate change as the major shock among many others is downgraded to one that is secondary to other shocks that even pose more danger to household and community livelihoods. The natural capital remains the basis upon which all the other capitals depend as drivers of choice for adaptation practices. A reorientation of capitals and associated activities is inevitable to deal with everyday vulnerability given that livelihood capitals play a key role in adaptation. Choice of household response strategies to shocks is not entirely intrinsic, but rather integral to a context where other players such as the extension operate to influence adaptation choices. This then highlights the need for embeddedness and context in understanding adaptation and livelihood changes.     

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya

Several studies have indicated the importance of understanding farmers’ perceptions of risks associated with climate change, the adaptation strategies they employ and factors that affect adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity in the semiarid Matungulu Sub-County, Eastern Kenya. A participatory approach, using three climate roundtables, was conducted to enhance community participation and understanding of climate change issues. The study showed that farmers’ perceptions concerning climate change are influenced by past experiences of weather extremes that have affected production levels and farm incomes. The farmers have made strategic responses to manage risks posed by climate change. However, they face several challenges in adaptation such as inadequate technical knowledge, low financial resources and inadequate land size. Further, the study showed that climate roundtables is a successful participatory approach that can give effective insights for smallholder farmers to understand agricultural vulnerability, climate change and their adaptation strategies.     

Adoption and adaptation of natural resource management innovations in smallholder agriculture: reflections on key lessons and best practices

Many smallholder farmers in vulnerable areas continue to face complex challenges in adoption and adaptation of resource management and conservation strategies. Although much has been learned from diverse experiences in sustainable resource management, there is still inadequate understanding of the market, policy and institutional failures that shape and structure farmer incentives and investment decisions. The policy and institutional failures exacerbate market failures, locking smallholder resource users into a low level equilibrium that perpetuates poverty and land degradation. Improved market access that raises the returns to land and labor is often the driving force for adoption of new practices in agriculture. Market linkages, access to credit and availability of pro-poor options for beneficial conservation are critical factors in stimulating livelihood and sustainability-enhancing investments. Future interventions need to promote joint innovations that ensure farmer experimentation and adaptation of new technologies and careful consideration of market, policy and institutional factors that stimulate widespread smallholder investments. Future projects should act as ‘toolboxes’, giving essential support to farmers to devise complementary solutions based on available options. Addressing the externalities and institutional failures that prevent private and joint investments for management of agricultural landscapes will require new kinds of institutional mechanisms for empowering communities through local collective action that would ensure broad participation and equitable distributions of the gains from joint conservation investments. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability in Dimapur district of Nagaland, India

Certain parts of the State of Nagaland situated in the northeastern region of India have been experiencing rainfall deficit over the past few years leading to severe drought-like conditions, which is likely to be aggravated under a climate change scenario. The state has already incurred considerable losses in the agricultural sector. Regional vulnerability assessments need to be carried out in order to help policy makers and planners formulate and implement effective drought management strategies. The present study uses an ‘index-based approach’ to quantify the climate variability-induced vulnerability of farmers in five villages of Dimapur district, Nagaland. Indicators, which are reflective of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers to drought, were quantified on the basis of primary data generated through household surveys and participatory rural appraisal supplemented by secondary data in order to calculate a composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index of village New Showba was found to be the least, while Zutovi, the highest. The overall results reveal that biophysical characteristics contribute the most to overall vulnerability. Some potential adaptation strategies were also identified based on observations and discussions with the villagers.     

The perception of and adaptation to climate variability/change in Ghana by small-scale and commercial farmers

Effective adaptation to climate change and variability is contingent on the perceptions of farmers and the ability of policy makers to merge these with scientific knowledge systems. The study examined the differentiated knowledge, experiences and perceptions of small traditional farmers and modern commercial farmers and their adaptation influences using qualitative interviews. Farmers generally have very clear ideas of the trends in the parameters of climate change as they relate to farm productivity and other livelihoods. Commercial farmers had a better understanding of the science of climate change, but small farmers presented a localised explanation of observed climate changes. Non-climate factors influenced adaptation of both groups of farmers. The capacities of small farmers are lower than their commercial counterparts, but the risks associated with commercial farming are much higher owing to higher investments in uncertain physical and economic conditions. Differentiated policies are needed at climate proofing the investments and efforts of farmers.     

Contract farming and the adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies in the northern region of Ghana

In climate change adaptation, contract farming can facilitate the adoption of coping and adaptation strategies, but such dynamics are less understood in the literature. This study uses primary data collected from a cross section of crop farmers in northern Ghana and a simultaneous equation systems approach to examine the links between contract farming and adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies. The major coping and adaptation strategies used by farmers include spraying of farms with chemicals, row planting, mixed farming, mixed cropping and crop rotation. Econometric results confirm that contract farming enhances the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies, but there is also a feedback effect on contract farming, such that farmers adopting more adaptation strategies have higher probabilities to get contract offer. This makes contract farming a viable policy instrument to consider in climate change adaptation. Furthermore, land ownership and extension services exert significant positive influence on adoption. As much as possible, coping and adaptation strategies should effectively be communicated to crop farmers. Policy-wise, development actors and successive governments in Ghana should encourage and facilitate contract or group farming, as was in the case of the National Block Farming, led by Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture.     

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.     

Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change

Climate change poses serious challenges for populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to adversely affect the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative. Few studies have addressed the farmers’ adaptation in Iran, and little is known about ongoing adaptation strategies in use. Adopting principal component analysis/fuzzy logic-based method, this paper considers the agricultural adaptation to climate variability. A survey of 255 farmers of Fars Province, selected through a multistage stratified random sampling method, revealed different levels of adaptation, specifically the low, moderate and high, which are principally distinguished by various degrees of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study also identified the main adaptation strategies used by farmers in response to climate-related shocks. Results indicated that although a large percentage of farmers make some adjustments to their farming practices, there are significant differences in choice of adaptation strategies by the adaptation categories. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate variability and change.     

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation (CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries, including the EU and its major member countries, the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the emerging economies and the least developed countries (LDCs). The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries. Finally, good international practices are proposed for China’s policy development. It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions. The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions. Since 2006, major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws, frameworks, strategies, and plans. The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Therefore, globally, it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions. China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national, regional, and sectorial levels since 2007. However, these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base, strategic positioning, contents, and implementation mechanisms, e.g. lack of a sound knowledge base, an international perspective, clear responsibilities for policy implementation, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact, vulnerability, and risk assessment, and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation, impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies. Furthermore, future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China’s vision and strategic position on the world stage.     

Conceptions of vulnerability in adaptation projects: a critical examination of the role of development aid agencies in Timor-Leste

It is widely acknowledged that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to climate change and will continue to require external support to adapt to current and future impacts. The international development community plays an important role in supporting SIDS adapt to climatic changes, and calls for increased international commitment have been made. However, how the vulnerability of SIDS to climate change is being conceptualised and, subsequently, how adaptation programmes are conceived and designed by the international development community are yet to be critically explored. Using Timor-Leste as a case study, this study examines the conceptual trends underpinning 32 donor-led adaptation programmes implemented from 2010 to the present date. Results show that donor-led adaptation programmes continue to conceptualise climate change vulnerability as a biophysical issue rather than a consequence of the dynamic interactions between political, institutional, economic and social structures. Adaptation policy responses therefore have limited ability to target more nuanced and broader-scale structures affecting SIDS and may be falling short in their efforts to reduce the vulnerability of SIDS. We argue that it is critical that the international development community re-conceptualise its approach to vulnerability reduction in SIDS. We conclude by highlighting how the Paris Agreement, with its expanding understanding of vulnerability, can act as a useful instrument to promote such changes.     

Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Sekyedumase district in Ghana

Climate change is projected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on Ghana, particularly on rural farmers whose livelihoods depend largely on rainfall. The extent of these impacts depends largely on awareness and the level of adaptation in response to climate change. This study examines the perception of farmers in Sekyedumase district of Ashanti region of Ghana on climate change and analyzes farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change. A hundred and eighty farming households were interviewed in February and October 2009. Results showed that about 92% of the respondents perceived increases in temperature, while 87% perceived decrease in precipitation over the years. The major adaptation strategies identified included crop diversification, planting of short season varieties, change in crops species, and a shift in planting date, among others. Results of logit regression analysis indicated that the access to extension services, credit, soil fertility, and land tenure are the four most important factors that influence farmers’ perception and adaptation. The main barriers included lack of information on adaptation strategies, poverty, and lack of information about weather. Even though the communities are highly aware of climate issues, only 44.4% of farmers have adjusted their farming practices to reduce the impacts of increasing temperature and 40.6% to decreasing precipitation, giving lack of funds as the main barrier to implementing adaptation measure. Implications for policymaking will be to make credit facilities more flexible, to invest in training more extension officers and more education on climate change and adaptation strategies.     

Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna

The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures.     

Communities and change in the anthropocene: understanding social-ecological vulnerability and planning adaptations to multiple interacting exposures

The majority of vulnerability and adaptation scholarship, policies and programs focus exclusively on climate change or global environmental change. Yet, individuals, communities and sectors experience a broad array of multi-scalar and multi-temporal, social, political, economic and environmental changes to which they are vulnerable and must adapt. While extensive theoretical—and increasingly empirical—work suggests the need to explore multiple exposures, a clear conceptual framework which would facilitate analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to multiple interacting socioeconomic and biophysical changes is lacking. This review and synthesis paper aims to fill this gap through presenting a conceptual framework for integrating multiple exposures into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. To support applications of the framework and facilitate assessments and comparative analyses of community vulnerability, we develop a comprehensive typology of drivers and exposures experienced by coastal communities. Our results reveal essential elements of a pragmatic approach for local-scale vulnerability analysis and for planning appropriate adaptations within the context of multiple interacting exposures. We also identify methodologies for characterizing exposures and impacts, exploring interactions and identifying and prioritizing responses. This review focuses on coastal communities; however, we believe the framework, typology and approach will be useful for understanding vulnerability and planning adaptation to multiple exposures in various social-ecological contexts.     

Linking agricultural adaptation strategies,food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa

Adaptation strategies to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and seasonality are needed given the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase during the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. We explored the linkages between selected agricultural adaptation strategies (crop diversity, soil and water conservation, trees on farm, small ruminants, improved crop varieties, fertilizers), food security, farm household characteristics and farm productivity in three contrasting agro-ecological sites in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana and Senegal). Differences in land area per capita and land productivity largely explained the variation in food security across sites. Based on land size and market orientation, four household types were distinguished (subsistence, diversified, extensive, intensified), with contrasting levels of food security and agricultural adaptation strategies. Income increased steadily with land size, and both income and land productivity increased with degree of market orientation. The adoption of agricultural adaptation strategies was widespread, although the intensity of practice varied across household types. Adaptation strategies improve the food security status of some households, but not all. Some strategies had a significant positive impact on land productivity, while others reduced vulnerability resulting in a more stable cash flow throughout the year. Our results show that for different household types, different adaptation strategies may be ‘climate-smart’. The typology developed in this study gives a good entry point to analyse which practices should be targeted to which type of smallholder farmers, and quantifies the effect of adaptation options on household food security. Subsequently, it will be crucial to empower farmers to access, test and modify these adaptation options, if they were to achieve higher levels of food security.     

Adaptation to climate change and other stressors among commercial and small-scale South African farmers

Commercial and small-scale farmers in South Africa are exposed to many challenges. Interviews with 44 farmers in the upper Thukela basin, KwaZulu-Natal, were conducted to identify common and specific challenges for the two groups and adaptive strategies for dealing with the effects of climate and other stressors. This work was conducted as part of a larger participatory project with local stakeholders to develop a local adaptation plan for coping with climate variability and change. Although many challenges related to exposure to climate variability and change, weak agricultural policies, limited governmental support, and theft were common to both farming communities, their adaptive capacities were vastly different. Small-scale farmers were more vulnerable due to difficulties to finance the high input costs of improved seed varieties and implements, limited access to knowledge and agricultural techniques for water and soil conservation and limited customs of long-term planning. In addition to temperature and drought-related challenges, small-scale farmers were concerned about soil erosion, water logging and livestock diseases, challenges for which the commercial farmers already had efficient adaptation strategies in place. The major obstacle hindering commercial farmers with future planning was the lack of clear directives from the government, for example, with regard to issuing of water licences and land reform. Enabling agricultural communities to procure sustainable livelihoods requires implementation of strategies that address the common and specific challenges and strengthen the adaptive capacity of both commercial and small-scale farmers. Identified ways forward include knowledge transfer within and across farming communities, clear governmental directives and targeted locally adapted finance programmes.