基于F-H方法的冲突局势稳定性分析方法及其应用

冲突是一类普遍的社会现象,基于元对策的F-H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F-H方法原理的基础上,提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法,寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中,当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时,该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的,则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后,该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中,模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取激励合作强化管理、东风渠灌区管理局增加引水、黄柏河流域管理局追求效益是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。     

在三峡库区腹地设立"白帝城" 市的战略思考

奉节“白帝城”位于三峡库区集聚贫困地区的腹地、是典型的“富饶的贫困”地区,由于受到地形环境、交通设施的水平限制和行政区域的分割,形成了三峡地区腹地典型的“鞭长莫及”的贫困地区,社会及经济发展缺少大中型城市的辐射作用。因此,建立“白帝城”地级市,形成新兴城镇网络体系,是调整库区腹地城镇空间布局结构、实现库区生产力布局科学化、促进当地资源深度开发和社会经济发展、解决当地“富饶的贫困”问题的重要举措,为此,提出了加深认识是前提,科学规划是条件,联动开发是途径,行政整合是力量,政策倾斜是保障,产业调整是动力等一系列对策及建议。     

山区生态足迹的计算与分析--以大别山区岳西县为例

由加拿大生态学家William Rees和他的学生Wackernagel提出的生态足迹理论是一种定量评估区域可持续发展状态的有效方法。以岳西县2002年统计数据为依据,对岳西县2002年生态足迹进行计算与分析,结果表明,岳西县2002年人均生态足迹为0.694942hm2,人均生态承载力为0.771222hm2,人均生态盈余为0.076280hm2,岳西县处于可持续发展状态。同时,通过与全国平均生态足迹比较发现,岳西县的可持续发展是一种基于较低的经济发展水平上的资源利用效益低、生态成本高的发展状态。对生态足迹需求和生态供给的进一步分析表明,岳西县简单粗放的农业经济模式和不合理的资源利用方式不利于可持续发展,只有发展现代生态农业和生态旅游业才是全县经济社会实现可持续发展的根本出路,提出了相应对策措施。     

黄河三角洲国家可持续发展实验区发展机制研究

黄河三角洲要实现高效生态经济发展模式,必须走可持续发展之路,建设可持续发展实验区就成为一种必然选择.作为我国第一个跨行政区域的国家级可持续发展实验区,黄河三角洲国家可持续发展实验区的管理体制和运行机制是制约该区域可持续发展的关键因素之一,管理体制和运行机制创新具有重要的实验和示范意义.本文分析了生态因素和区域协调问题对运行机制的影响,剖析了目前实验区管理体制与运行机制存在的主要问题;借鉴国内外类似区域的经验,研究探索了相关区域的管理模式.提出应考虑黄河三角洲可持续发展实验区产业的战略定位,结合区域特点,形成开放型多层联动的促进机制模式,并在政府推动机制、决策咨询机制、开放式联动机制、绩效考核评价机制、市场机制、创新型人才跨行政区合作机制等方面给出了对策与建议.     

Assessing Tourists' Preferences for Recreational and Environmental Management Programs Central to the Sustainable Development of a Tourism Area in the Dominican Republic

The main goals of this paper are to (1) highlight the need for sustainable development as a means to conserve natural resources and the environment, which often represent the basis for tourism development, (2) illustrate the importance of assessing tourists' preferences when designing programs and policies central to the sustainable development of a tourism area, and (3) study tourists' interests in sustainable development. With these goals in mind, 180 tourists from Europe, Latin America, and North America were interviewed as they were leaving the resort region of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. The main factors that they considered when deciding where to go on a beach vacation were evaluated, as well as their preferences regarding four programs designed to improve recreational and environmental management of the area. Preferences by tourists were elicited both in monetary and non-monetary terms. This paper reports the non-monetary analysis of the data. The results indicate that clean ocean water and beaches, quality of services, and price are the most important factors considered by the respondents before deciding to come to Punta Cana. It was not possible to obtain reliable responses on how tourists perceived the four programs contributing to the sustainable development of Punta Cana. Nevertheless, they expressed high interest and willingness to pay for two of these programs: the outdoor aquarium and the Water Management Program. The results reported in this paper show how important it is to elicit tourists' preferences of programs central to the sustainable development of tourism areas since these preferences can drive managers' development decisions in more sustainable directions.     

应用景观生态学原理构建城市河道生态护岸

首先分析了传统水工设计中护岸的弊端,然后从景观生态学角度介绍了岸坡生态系统的主要特征、生态护岸的多种功能和景观生态学内涵;介绍了国内外生态护岸的研究现状,提出了城市河道在生态护岸设计中应在保证稳定安全的前提下,坚持生态优先的原则,重视其景观性和亲水性;最后对生态护岸的材料与植物群落的选择进行了分析。旨在探讨河流生态治理的方法,为生态护岸的构建与河流、洪泛区的治理提供一定的思路和参考。     

Community-Based Integrated Watershed Management

1 INTRODUCTIONIn the past, natural resources management initiatives havefocused on large but specific sector projects such as dams,reservoirs for water supply schemes, irrigation systems,crop production, at forestation, etc. Often these projectswere treated as technical and administrative issues ratherthan as a socio-economic and political one. However, thehigh social and environmental cost of such schemes haveled to a change of paradigm since the 1980s towards small-scale community projec…     

生态示范区可持续发展指标体系和数学模型--以安徽省岳西县国家级生态示范区为例

为评价、监控和考核生态示范区可持续发展水平、进程和成效,构建了一套量化评价指标体系和指数叠加、功效系数、模糊综合评价等三种数学模型,并以安徽省岳西县国家级生态示范区为例研究生态示范区多时空尺度的可持续发展态势。结果表明在基准水平年（2000）、近期目标年（2005）和远景目标年（2010）生态示范区复合系统的可持续发展度（0.268、0.541、0.859）、可持续功效系数（0.711、0.812、0.949）和可持续发展隶属度（0.129、0.332、\{0.671\}）都逐步增加,而且在不同规划年限中均以自然子系统可持续发展态势为最优,这与该县生态环境优越、经济社会水平低、发展潜力大的客观实际非常符合。     

湖北贫困地区旅游开发优势及现实意义——以鄂西北地区为例

以鄂西北地区的襄樊市、十堰市和神农架林区为例,分析了该区的区位条件和社会、经济发展态势,旅游资源特征,旅游环境现状及其开发优势,阐述了贫困地区旅游开发规划对扶贫工作的促进作用和扶贫旅游的现实意义。本区的多数县市处于山地环境,地形崎岖,交通受到限制,经济发展相对滞后,扶盆任务依然艰巨,本区旅游资源丰富多彩,有些资源的品位也很高,可以总括为“531优势”。即人文旅游资源的五大文化特点-楚国发祥地（楚文化）,三国之源（三国文化）,流放文化,道教文化,郧阳猿人（古人类文化）,形成明显的锁定效应;自然旅游资源的三大品牌－纳入“世界自然保护区网”的神农架,在国内外有一定声誉的郧县恐龙蛋化石基地,正在规划的武当山国家级地质公园,一处国家级风景名胜区－自然与人文景观相得益彰的“隆中风景名胜区”,其资源环境优势在于,自然生态优美,环境污染轻,空气质量好,气候适宜,土特产品丰富,对这些旅游资源进行科学合理的开发利用,并按照“PPT”战略实施扶贫计划,将有力促进本地区经济发展。     

A study on the dilemmas of resource utilization and tourism in Africa

This paper explores,explains and discusses issues around the dilemma between local conservation of natural resources(often,endangered species and habitats)and tourism needs in Africa.Often and in constitutional terms,local people have a right to exploit and use resources endowed in their local area.However,tourists often are interested in viewing the vegetation and animal resources undisturbed.Inevitably,there is an undeclared animosity of values and interests between local communities and tourists and state agencies.As a result,the dilemma is thus of governance.The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the governance dilemma of resource utilization and tourism in Africa in a bid to create an informed stewardship framework for sustainability.This is achieved by way of case studies and narratives from Africa.As such,this paper will be a review literature on how different communities perceive tourism and derive livelihoods from their immediate environment.It also explains how the external factors influence local needs and interests.A more sustainable and operational framework that reduces friction among stakeholders is suggested.     

A study on the dilemmas of resource utilization and tourism in Africa

This paper explores, explains and discusses issues around the dilemma between local conservation of natural resources (often, endangered species and habitats) and tourism needs in Africa. Often and in constitutional terms, local people have a right to exploit and use resources endowed in their local area. However, tourists often are interested in viewing the vegetation and animal resources undisturbed. Inevitably, there is an undeclared animosity of values and interests between local communities and tourists and state agencies. As a result, the dilemma is thus of governance. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the governance dilemma of resource utilization and tourism in Africa in a bid to create an informed stewardship framework for sustainability. This is achieved by way of case studies and narratives from Africa. As such, this paper will be a review literature on how different communities perceive tourism and derive livelihoods from their immediate environment. It also explains how the external factors influence local needs and interests. A more sustainable and operational framework that reduces friction among stakeholders is suggested.     

中国建筑遗产保护与可持续发展研究

建筑遗产是世界文化遗产的重要组成部分,具有不可复制的科技和文化艺术价值。本文从中国建筑遗产的利用、开发和保护现状中发现其存在着自然威胁、人为破坏、政府制度疏漏及民众保护意识淡薄等问题。在世界遗产保护理念、科学监管、法律法规、民众参与等方面提出相应的建议和措施,以推进世界遗产的保护与可持续发展。     

Site selection for a data centre – a multi-criteria decision-making model

IT data centres (DCs) are a huge investment and most mid-size companies need to set up their own DCs to run their business operations. Building new DCs is a time-consuming effort needing millions of dollars and months of planning. Companies cannot afford to make a wrong decision when designing and setting up a new DC as these need to build for a life of around 20 years. In this paper, we studied the challenges and issues faced by enterprise DCs and explored various criteria which can be used for selecting a site for a new DC. We use a hierarchical model to look into various financial, environmental, social, political and geographical factors which an organisation need to look into when choosing a city for their DC. The model discussed in the paper provides a general framework and can be adopted by a company operating in any industry and any country.     

生态旅游项目的可持续设计

本文基于我国目前生态旅游项目开发存在的普遍问题,从可持续旅游的观点提出了生态旅游项目开发的四个基本准则,同时讨论分析了生态旅游项目可持续设计应遵循的方法和主要内容。     

Economic Underdevelopment And Sustainable Development In The World:Conditioning Factors,Problems And Opportunities

This paper deals with the various factors that condition underdevelopment in the world. It suggests some alternatives and points out the potential opportunities that both the developed and the underdeveloped world will have in the coming years to change the gloomy prospects that we see today. The present paper outlines the trends in historical priorities in development, changing as they pass from economic development to social development to ecological conservation – the three pillars of Sustainable Development.The paper analyses the importance of geography, a very relevant and often neglected conditioning factor. Also, it analyses the role of socio-economic conditioning factors like political immaturity, demographics, land ownership and external debt.Furthermore, the current opportunities for economic take-off are presented, from cash surpluses to low interest rates, from natural resource management to tourism or migration, from the Information Revolution to liberalisation of agricultural markets. Current obstacles are also analysed. The paper, on the basis of current facts and figures, reaches the conclusion that there is a structural need for sustained development aid for most poor countries, but it must be distributed in a more rational way.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

影响退耕还林农户返耕决策的因素识别与分析

可持续收入能力是西部贫困地区退耕还林农户返耕决策的关键。而可持续收入能力又可以表征为收入水平、途径和结构。以及决定其实现的各种条件。理论分析与调研结果发现．农户可持续收入能力受制于自身资本积累。当地自然条件和经济条件三方面。其中．人力和物资等资本存量不足限制了农户在可能的收入途径问的选择；自然条件影响农户依靠自然资源所获得的收入；基础设施落后、产业结构单一、就业机会缺乏等经济条件制约了退耕还林后短期内农户形成较稳定的收入途径和结构。本文提出政策调整的方向应该是消除这些限制因素的影响。为退耕还林农户可持续收入能力的提高创造条件。以确保退耕还林的长期生态效果的巩固和实现。     

Prioritization of Sustainable Groundwater Management Needs: The Case of the Israel's Stressed Coastal Aquifer

On-going population growth and resulting domestic demand for water require rapid and effective decision-making as regards groundwater management and control of the various sources of salinization and pollution in Coastal aquifers. Sustainability of water resources for utilization by future generations must therefore be a high priority, not only for the purpose of fulfilling needs for water usage but also for bringing people into harmony with their ambient natural environment.The objective of this paper is to propose an empirical approach for prioritization of the needs involved for sustainable aquifer management. The approach involves a schematic format to:(1) develop a global understanding of an aquifer's hydrological and environmental properties in order to delineate appropriate eco-hydrological scenarios and recommend corresponding operational management activities; and(2) emphasize the importance of educating and increasing the awareness of the population involved as to the need for and viability of socially acceptable measures for sustainable management of groundwater and other resources.The psychologist Abraham Maslow utilized a pyramid to illustrate that until people's most basic needs were fulfilled, higher levels of needs would remain irrelevant. This paper postulates a comparable pyramid prioritizing hydrological needs required for progressing towards sustainable groundwater resources. Two sub-regions of Israel's Coastal aquifer in the Sharon region have been presented as representative areas, each characterized by different stress of exploitation. In assessing these sub-regions situation, specific measures have been recommended for achieving and/or maintaining sustainable groundwater resources in light of the ambient environment, and the level of the population on the pyramidal hierarchy of groundwater needs.     

Barriers Beyond the Partners: Bureaucratic and Political Constraints to Implementing Joint Forest Management in Tamil Nadu,India

Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain.     

On the Laws and Causes of Socio-economic Territorial Differentiation in Minority Areas in China

Abstract

On the basis of applying quantitative and qualitative approaches as well as GIS technology, this paper established an index system to make a comprehensive evaluation on socioeconomic development of minority areas in China. The result showed that socio-economic development in minority area presents a series of characteristics that the north is high and the south is low, center-margin pattern is obvious and the areas with middle and lower development indices are distributed centrally and continuously. However, the causes of the socioeconomic characteristics mainly include natural conditions, economic development basic, population cultural quality, regional combination and development conditions of mineral and energy resources, informal institutional factors and distribution of major traffic lines.     

跨世纪时期的世界矿产资源形势和我国的对策

本文研究分析了世界资源、尤其是矿产资源的供需形势,以及全球资源紧张与危机的状况和发展趋势。结合我国资源状况和国情,从经济、社会长期发展战略角度,论述了客观分析、参与研究国际及我国社会基础资源问题的重要性、紧迫性,并提出建立我国资源供需持续、稳定、协调发展的方略对策。