Estimating the population size with a behavioral response in capture-recapture experiment

A new estimating procedure is suggested to estimate the population size in a capture-recapture experiment. The capture intensities for first-capture and recapture are allowed to be different and time dependent but they are assumed to be proportional. It is shown that the information on the proportionality constant is crucial to the estimation of the population size. Sensitivity analysis with a misspecification of the proportionality constant is conducted. The method has also been extended to the case with an unknown proportionality. A real example is given.     

Testing the effectiveness of capture mark recapture population estimation techniques using a computer simulation with known population size

Estimation of small mammal population sizes is important for monitoring ecosystem condition and for conservation. Here, we test the accuracy of standard methods of population size estimation using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) on a simulated population of agents. The use of a computer simulation allows complete control of population sizes and behaviors, thereby avoiding assumptions that may be violated in real populations. We find that the recommended protocol for CMR sampling, using uniformly distributed traps, consistently overestimates population sizes by as much as 100% when studies are conducted over only two trapping periods. More than 20 trapping periods are required before this method, or that of placing traps randomly, gives an accurate estimation of population size (i.e., within a 95% confidence limit of the actual value). Non-random sampling, by placing traps on runways used by small mammals, produces the most accurate, and least variable, estimates of population. However, we show that around 10 trapping periods are still required to produce an accurate population estimate using this method. Given that most real populations do not comply with the ‘ideal’ assumptions made by CMR, we suggest that population estimates based on CMR may be fundamentally flawed, and recommend that protocols for CMR population estimation methods may need revising.     

On the latent state estimation of nonlinear population dynamics using Bayesian and non-Bayesian state-space models

Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies.     

广东连州田心自然保护区香果树种群及其生境特征

香果树是中国特有的茜草科的单种属植物,1993年被列入国家重点保护植物名录（Ⅱ级）。论文首次报道了广东境内的香果树Emmenopterys henryi最大种群及其群落的基本情况,以期为深入了解该保护植物的生态适应性、种群的生存和发展提供基础资料。2013年采用美国Onset公司产HOBO-U23-002温度-湿度记录仪对广东连州田心梅树冲的香果树种群所处生境进行了为期1年的监测;测定了土壤的理化特性、叶面和旷地的光照强度、香果树群落的物种组成、香果树种群的基径径级结构与高度结构,以及叶片的某些生理生态特性。结果表明,连州田心梅树冲是香果树的适宜生长地,生境的年均气温17.315℃,年均大气相对湿度84.316%;土壤pH5.64,有机质含量1.95%（大于林外旷地的0.50%）;叶面光照强度小于旷地的12%。香果树叶片SPAD值约为40,净光合速率为2.16-12.92μmol·m-2·s-1（以CO2计）,蒸腾速率0.29-0.62 mmol·m-2·s-1（以H2O计）。群落中有维管植物33种,其中乔木层17种,以壳斗科的4种为最多,樟科3种次之;除香果树外,群落优势种为灯台树Bothrocaryum controversum、西川朴Celtis vandervoetiana、野黄桂Cinnamomum jensenianum和金叶含笑Michelia foveolata等。连州田心梅树冲的香果树种群共有97个个体,其中Ⅰ级幼苗11株（占11.34%）,Ⅱ级幼苗76株（占78.35%）,小树9株（占9.28%）,中树0株,大树1株（1.03%）;高度为0.20-2.03 m的个体数77株,占总数的79.38%。径级结构和高度结构均表明,种群目前虽暂时处于增长阶段,但因受2008年南岭地区的冰灾影响,能产生果实的大树严重受损,缺失中树阶段的个体,且Ⅰ级幼苗数量少于Ⅱ级幼苗,该种群将在一定时期后因无法更新而进入衰退阶段,为此应加强香果树的就地和迁地保护、科学研究和宣传教育。     

Effect of stage-specific vital rates on population growth rates and effective population sizes in an endangered iteroparous plant

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift and can influence the level of genetic diversity a population can maintain. Assessing how changes in demographic rates associated with environmental variables and management actions affect N(e) thus can be crucial to the conservation of endangered species. Calculation of N(e) through demographic models makes it possible to use elasticity analyses to study this issue. The elasticity of N(e) to a given vital rate is the proportional change in N(e) associated with a proportional increase in that vital rate. In addition, demographic models can be used to study N(e) and population growth rate (λ) simultaneously. Simultaneous examination is important because some vital rates differ diametrically in their associations with λ and N(e). For example, in some cases increasing these vital rates increases λ and decreases N(e). We used elasticity analysis to study the effect of stage-specific survival and flowering rates on N(e), annual effective population size (N(a)), and λ in seven populations of the endangered plant Austrian dragonhead (Dracocephalum austriacum). In populations with λ ≥ 1, the elasticities of N(e) and N(a) were similar to those of λ. Survival rates of adults were associated with greater elasticities than survival rates of juveniles, flowering rates, or fecundity. In populations with λ < 1, N(e) and N(a) exhibited greater elasticities to juvenile than to adult vital rates. These patterns are similar to those observed in other species with similar life histories. We did not observe contrasting effects of any vital rate on λ and N(e); thus, management actions that increase the λ of populations of Austrian dragonhead will not increase genetic drift. Our results show that elasticity analyses of N(e) and N(a) can complement elasticity analysis of λ. Moreover, such analyses do not require more data than standard matrix models of population dynamics.     

Revealing life‐history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life‐history, and mating‐system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life‐history characteristics and the relative impact of different life‐history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N_ev) from genetic data () and formulated predictions for the impacts on N_ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N_ev. The comparison of effective‐size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N_ev) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N_ev). Heritability of female RS also affected N_ev; (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N_ev). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting , namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life‐history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice.