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全球气候变暖、海平面上升背景下,沿海城市极端洪涝事件的发生频率和强度将显著增大,洪涝灾害风险剧增,成为沿海城市安全与发展的严峻挑战。基于深度不确定性的稳健决策(Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty, DMDU)思路,旨在提供长期稳健的决策方案,成为全球沿海城市洪涝风险管理研究的新趋势。该文对比分析了稳健决策、适应路径和期权估值三类主要DMDU方法,基于不确定性、稳健性和适应性剖析了DMDU方法基本原理,提出了DMDU稳健决策的一般性框架。最后,从稳健性与决策目标、政策环境与决策参与以及方法的融合与创新三个方面对DMDU在洪涝风险领域的实践应用进行展望,以期为沿海城市适应气候变化稳健决策提供参考。 相似文献
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辽东湾绥中海岸侵蚀给当地人民的生产和生活带来严重危害。因面临海岸侵蚀的较高危险性,促使绥中沿海地区海岸侵蚀灾害危险性研究备受关注。海平面上升被认为是我国海岸侵蚀灾害危险度的重要自然因素。利用Bruun法则对辽东湾葫芦岛的绥中岸段海岸侵蚀进行评估和预测。根据海平面上升高度数据,结合基于海平面上升的岸线后退计算模型,在GIS平台下,得到绥中岸段现状及未来100年内的海岸侵蚀灾害危险度空间分布结果。研究成果显示绥中岸段在2009-2012年期间基于海平面上升的岸线蚀退权重约为21%,但是,在未来100年内,基于海平面上升的海岸侵蚀宽度可能超过176 m,海平面上升而对岸线蚀退的贡献权重增加到约为32%,大部分地区呈现明显的强侵蚀和严重侵蚀状态。因此,基于未来海平面上升导致的海岸侵蚀危险度预测对海岸侵蚀研究具有重要意义。 相似文献
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渤海湾西岸海平面上升威胁的防治对策 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:5
因受全球海平面上升和地面沉降的双重影响,在21世纪末渤海湾西岸海平面将相对上升90~260厘米,广大地区(包括天津市区)将处于大潮平均高潮位之下,自然岸线位置将后撤至津浦线附近.我们提出筑堤防潮引黄放淤提高建筑高程三位一体的治理方案。 相似文献
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海平面上升对海岸带环境的影响与危害及其防治对策 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
本文阐述了过去近百年来和未来特定年份海平面上升的趋势,分析了海平面上升的原因及其对海岸带环境的影响与危害,最后提出了防治对策与措施。 相似文献
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广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
探讨了“广义灾害”提出的必要性,给出了它的定义。讨论了广义灾害,灾害、祸和灾害链的分类,共性和个性,以及它们在事物和人类发展过程中的作用,提出了广义灾害、灾害链的结构,破坏作用、直接损失量,放大作用和概念模型或数学模型,简略地讨论了防治灾害的指导原则和战略策略等问题。 相似文献
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Theuplandreferstoanyplacewhoserelativealtitudeismorethan 2 0 0meters.Itmaynotonlyincludelowmountains,mediummountains,highmountainsandsky highmountains,butalsotablelands,plateaus,hills,valleysandbasinsthatlieamongthem .Itisindeedacomplexecosystemcomprisingnat… 相似文献
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1995年日本阪神7.2级大震损失惨重。震后日本官方改变了以预报为基础的防震减灾计划.这一改变对全世界地震预报的信心起了很大的削弱作用.本文以阪神大震极震区震前9d的氡气突跳异常以及1946年12月21日南海8.1级地震(距阪神约150km)为依据,按我们早期提出的倍九律和带头地震来讨论阪神大震的预报.我们的结论是临震预报不要放弃,应继续前进。 相似文献
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Sara Pantuliano 《Disasters》2007,31(S1):S77-S90
Despite more than 20 years of distribution of free emergency food in eastern Sudan (38 years in the case of refugees) Global Acute Malnutrition rates are currently the highest in the country. There has been no real improvement in the chronic livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the region—particularly pastoralists. Food security must be seen from an informed livelihoods perspective. While food aid may still be required as part of transition, WFP must rethink its assistance strategy and advocate for complementarity in the efforts by development actors working across a range of sectors. Alternative models and interventions focused on the rehabilitation of markets and the development of' cargo nets' for the destitute, including cash transfers, must be developed and tested. Land tenure issues should be given particular attention. Food aid will probably remain an important element in the overall response, but its significance relative to other less developed forms of interventions should be reassessed. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(4):143-155
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures. 相似文献
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Strategy is introduced as a predictor of disaster preparedness. Tests with multiple regression show that strategy, disaster experience and capacity for disaster response are the strongest predictors of preparedness. We conclude that the measure of strategy warrants further refinement and that the study of preparedness must move from idiosyncratic, disconnected studies to a more theoretically organized set of studies that verify useful guidelines for monitoring and enhancing disaster preparedness. 相似文献
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针对电网运行中采取控制输电断面总潮流的方法来确保断面满足 N-1 原则,不能充分发挥输电断面的输电能力的问题,通过分析完全断面控制策略、不完全断面控制策略和基于支路开断分布系数的控制策略的潮流约束方程,证明了完全断面控制策略或不完全断面控制策略均偏保守,不能完全发挥输电通道的输电能力,而基于支路开断分布系数的控制方法能够最大限度发挥输电断面的功率交换能力。计算结果表明:当节点对断面中各支路的分布系数差别较大时,基于支路开断分布系数的控制方法能够大幅提高断面输电能力。 相似文献
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农业气象灾害减灾对策是一项十分复杂的系统工程,其系统可划分为两个子系统:农业气象灾害子系统和减灾对策子系统。农业气象灾害子系统包括灾害的发生、发展到消亡的整个过程。减灾对策子系统是指减轻灾害的对策措施,可概括为灾前防御、灾中抗御、灾后补救等。其系统涉及到灾害的监测、预报、防御、抗御、治理、灾情评估和减灾效益的分析等环节。因此,对这样一个系统工程,除总结和继承传统的农业气象灾害的减灾方法外,还需要利用现代的信息技术;遥感技术、人工智能技术、作物模拟技术等来提高防灾、减灾的能力。 相似文献
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通过对安控装置运行状态进行实时监视与识别,准确获取安控系统运行状态,对分散的安控系统策略进行结构化统一建模,实现了安控当值策略的快速识别,为离线策略在线校核提供基础数据,并进行了安控系统的静态安全、暂态安全和动态稳定的全面校核。研究结果表明一种计及多类安全稳定约束的安控系统在线校核技术对防止安控系统离线策略控制量不足或者不匹配等情况有很好的指导意义。 相似文献