Changes in Land Cover and Subsequent Effects on Lower Fraser Basin Ecosystems from 1827 to 1990

/ European settlement began in the Lower Fraser Basin (LFB) inwestern British Columbia in 1827 and has impacted the basin ecosystem in anumber of ways, especially affecting the vegetation. Using previouslypublished data, air photos, and other historical material for the area,estimates of land cover were made for the years prior to 1827 and for 1930and 1990. The area of coniferous forest changed from 71% prior to 1827to 50% in 1930 to 54% in 1990. However, prior to 1827, only27% of the forest would have been immature (<120 years old), while40% would have been immature in 1930 and 73% of the forest wasimmature in 1990. The amount of wetland area decreased from 10% to1% of the study area while urban and agricultural area increased to26% of the study area by 1990. The changes in land cover have hadadverse effects on soil, water, and air quality; aquatic life; and plant andanimal populations. Estimates of changes in net primary production andorganic soil carbon suggest a decline over the past 170 years, although thelatter rate of decrease has slowed since 1930. As human populations in theLower Fraser Basin continue to increase, the quality of air, water, and soilwill continue to decline unless measures are taken.KEY WORDS: Human impact; Land cover; Net primary productivity; Organiccarbon in soil     

Nitrogen Balance in the Lower Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

/ A study was conducted to determine the extent of nitrogenpollution in agricultural lands in the Lower Fraser River basin of BritishColumbia, Canada. The specific objectives were to determine the distributionof leachable nitrogenand estimate the nitrogen concentration in groundwaterrecharges. Nitrogen and water mass balances were conducted on the entirebasin and on each of the four districts comprising it over the period1971-1991 in intervals of five years. The results indicated that the averagenitrogen concentration in the groundwater recharge for the entire basin rosefrom nondetectable in 1971 to 6 mg/liter in 1991. Estimates for theindividual districts ranged from 4 to 14 mg/liter in Central Fraser and fromnondetectable to 7 mg/liter in Fraser-Cheam and 3 mg/liter in both GreaterVancouver and Dewdney-Alouette. So far, excessive levels of nitrogen areconfined to Central Fraser. Although they have remained within the acceptablerange, nitrogen concentrations in the other three districts have definitelyincreased over the 20-year study period. Sensitivity analyses indicated thatanimal manure and fertilizer had the largest contribution in groundwaterrecharge. Decreasing the rate of manure application to agricultural lands issuggested as the most practical way of reducing nitrogen pollution in CentralFraser.KEY WORDS: Nitrogen balance; Water balance; Sensitivity analysis     

Potential contribution of the forestry sector in Bangladesh to carbon sequestration

The Kyoto Protocol provides for the involvement of developing countries in an atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction regime under its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Carbon credits are gained from reforestation and afforestation activities in developing countries. Bangladesh, a densely populated tropical country in South Asia, has a huge degraded forestland which can be reforested by CDM projects. To realize the potential of the forestry sector in developing countries for full-scale emission mitigation, the carbon sequestration potential of different species in different types of plantations should be integrated with the carbon trading system under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol. This paper discusses the prospects and problems of carbon trading in Bangladesh, in relation to the CDM, in the context of global warming and the potential associated consequences. The paper analyzes the effects of reforestation projects on carbon sequestration in Bangladesh, in general, and in the hilly Chittagong region, in particular, and concludes by demonstrating the carbon trading opportunities. Results showed that tree tissue in the forests of Bangladesh stored 92tons of carbon per hectare (tC/ha), on average. The results also revealed a gross stock of 190tC/ha in the plantations of 13 tree species, ranging in age from 6 to 23 years. The paper confirms the huge atmospheric CO(2) offset by the forests if the degraded forestlands are reforested by CDM projects, indicating the potential of Bangladesh to participate in carbon trading for both its economic and environmental benefit. Within the forestry sector itself, some constraints are identified; nevertheless, the results of the study can expedite policy decisions regarding Bangladesh's participation in carbon trading through the CDM.     

The greenhouse gas balance of the Province of Siena

There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore, we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines, as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions, even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect, we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities, where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions, seven with low positive emissions, 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities.     

Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Finland: Methods for Estimating Forcing of a Country or an Activity

The objective of this study was to assess the radiative forcing due to Finnish anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in three scenarios. All the Kyoto Protocol gases, i.e., CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and fluorinated gases, were included. The calculations showed that forcing due to Finnish emissions will increase in the case of all gases except methane by the year 2100. In 1990, radiative forcing due to Finland's emission history of all Kyoto Protocol gases was 3.2 mW/m², of which 71% was due to carbon dioxide, 17% to methane, and the rest to nitrous oxide. In 1990 the share of fluorinated gases was negligible. The share of methane in radiative forcing is decreasing, whereas the shares of carbon dioxide and of fluorinated gases are increasing and that of nitrous oxide remains nearly constant. The nonlinear features concerning additional concentrations in the atmosphere and radiative forcing due to emissions caused by a single country or activity are also considered. Radiative forcing due to Finnish emissions was assessed with two different approaches, the marginal forcing approach and the averaged forcing approach. The impact of the so-called background scenario, i.e., the scenario for concentration caused by global emissions, was also estimated. The difference between different forcing models at its highest was 40%, and the averaged forcing approach appeared to be the more recommendable. The effect of background concentrations in the studied cases was up to 11%. Hence, the choice of forcing model and background scenario should be given particular attention.     

Impact of Carbon Storage Through Restoration of Drylands on the Global Carbon Cycle

   Using estimates of land suitable for restoration in woodlands, grasslands, and deserts, as well as estimates of the rate at which restoration can proceed, we estimate that carbon storage in these biomes can range up to 0.8 billion tons of carbon per year (Gt C/yr), for a combination of land management strategies. This corresponds to a reduction in atmospheric buildup of 0.5 Gt C/yr, which represents up to 15% of the average annual atmospheric carbon buildup in the next century, 3.5 Gt C/yr, assuming the IPCC 92d scenario. A global strategy for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will require the implementation of multiple options. The advantage of carbon storage in restored drylands is that it comes as a side benefit to programs that are also justifiable in terms of land management.     

Land-Use Change and Carbon Flux Between 1970s and 1990s in Central Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

6 tons C were released to the atmosphere during the period of time covered by our study, equal to approximately 34% of the 1975 vegetation C pool. The Chiapas highlands, while comprising just 0.3% of Mexico's surface area, contributed 3% of the net national C emissions.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

重庆市碳排放现状及低碳经济发展战略研究

低碳经济以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础,是当今世界减缓温室气体排放、应对气候变化的最佳经济发展模式。本文初步估算了重庆市包括二氧化碳排放总量、人均排放量、万元GDP排放强度等碳排放现状,分析了近年来全市碳排放减缓的趋势以及二氧化碳排放来源解析的结果,探讨了重庆市低碳发展的良好基础,提出了重庆市发展低碳经济的战略取向、战略目标、战略重点和战略措施建议,描绘了重庆市低碳发展的行动路线图,认为低碳经济是重庆市转变经济发展方式、实现可持续发展的必然选择。     

Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics in the Jinsha Watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.     

Collective guilt mediates the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior

The present research examines whether collective guilt for an ingroup's collective greenhouse gas emissions mediates the effects of beliefs about the causes and effects of global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior. In Study 1, we manipulate the causes and effects of global warming and then measure collective guilt. Results demonstrate that collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse gas emissions is stronger when participants believe that global warming is caused by humans and will have minor effects. Study 2 employs the same manipulations and then measures collective guilt and collective anxiety, as well as willingness to conserve energy and pay green taxes. This study replicates the effect from Study 1 and rules out collective anxiety as a plausible alternative mediator. Collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse emissions was the only reliable mediator of the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behaviors. The importance of collective guilt as a tool for promoting global warming mitigation is discussed.     

An Application and Evaluation of the CAL3QHC Model for Predicting Carbon Monoxide Concentrations from Motor Vehicles Near a Roadway Intersection in Muscat,Oman

The CAL3QHC model was used to predict carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from motor vehicles at an existing urban intersection (Star Cinema in Muscat area, Oman). The CO concentrations predicted from the model were compared with those measured in the field. Predicted average CO concentrations were found to compare favorably with measured values obtained at all eight receptors considered within the modeled intersection. In general, the comparison indicates good agreement with some underprediction for CO. For receptor 6, the model overpredicts the average CO concentration. This overprediction is associated with the presence of trees and green area in the location of receptor 6. In general, the measurements and the model results indicated that the highest CO concentrations were found to occur close to the intersection and, hence, a decrease in the concentration levels was seen as the distance from the road increased. The results indicated that the levels of CO were well below the ambient air quality standard and that probably no health risk was present in areas adjacent to the star cinema intersection. However, the predicted worst-case 1-h CO concentrations assuming inversion atmospheric stability conditions (class F) and wind speed of 1 m/s indicated that the levels of CO were close to or higher than the Omans National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) value of 35 ppm at all receptors considered. The results of this study are useful in transport development and traffic management planning.Published online.     

Early Development of Systems Analysis in Natural Resources Management from Man and Nature to the Miami Conservancy District

Contemporary approaches to natural resources and environmental decision-making typically draw on a “systems” perspective to assess and improve management strategies. This paper describes the early genesis of the systems analysis approach. It concentrates on a period between the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. During the early part of this period, George Marsh's Man and Nature and related works laid out an approach to problem-solving that recognized the relationship among physically disperse elements in the environment, the need to balance benefits against costs, the potential for using quantitative modeling to understand management options, and the importance of integrating human and natural components into solutions. In the early 20th century, the Miami Conservancy District project brought this approach to fruition with its use of complex simulation and optimization modeling, detailed cost–benefit analysis, and its linking of economics, engineering, science, and law into a far-reaching solution to a complex water resources problem. The objective of this paper is to describe the early development and application of this conceptual approach to problem-solving. An examination of the origins of natural resources systems analysis can broaden one's perspective of the contemporary field to understand its roots as a philosophy for environmental problem-solving.