Assessing Naturalness in Northern Great Lakes Forests Based on Historical Land-Cover and Vegetation Changes

The concept of naturalness was developed to assess to what degree landscapes represent a natural state. Protected areas are often regarded as the remnants of untouched landscapes although many landscapes commonly perceived as pristine have a long history of human impact. Here, we introduced a historical perspective into the concept of naturalness and the analysis of the effectiveness of protected areas by analyzing historical trajectories in land-cover and forest communities for the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore on Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (USA). Distribution of land-cover and forest community types was reconstructed for pre-settlement time (around 1850), the height of agricultural expansion (1928), and modern conditions (2000). Naturalness of the landscape was assessed by analyzing similarity between pre-settlement and current conditions and by assessing landscape continuity (1850–1928–2000). We compared changes in the strictly protected park core zone with those in the inland buffer zone with ongoing sustainable logging, and a not protected area adjacent to the park. Forest was the dominant land-cover type over the entire study period. We detected a gradient in land-cover continuity from the core zone (81 % continuity) to the inland buffer zone (74 %) and the area outside the park (66 %). Northern hardwood was the dominating forest type in all time points with high continuity (76 %). In contrast, pine forests show a more dynamic pattern with more than 50 % of the initial forests switching to non-forest or early succession forest types by 1928. More than half of the study area was considered as “natural virgin” (no changes in land-cover and forest community type) with a higher portion within the park than in the adjacent area. In contrast, areas with low naturalness are more abundant outside the park. Our study demonstrates the value of integrating historical information into naturalness assessments and the results provide useful information for future park management. More broadly speaking, our study advances research on the effectiveness of protected areas, by going beyond simple measures of averted deforestation, and introducing approaches to directly measure naturalness.     

Housing growth,forests, and public lands in Northern Wisconsin from 1940 to 2000

Rural, forested areas throughout the United States are experiencing strong housing growth with potentially detrimental impacts on the environment. In this paper, we quantify housing growth in Northern Wisconsin over the last sixty years to determine if growth rates were higher near public lands, which may represent an important recreational amenity. We used data from the U.S. Census to produce decadal housing density estimates, “backcasts,” from 1940 to 2000 for northern Wisconsin to examine “rural sprawl” in northern Wisconsin and its relationship to forested areas and public lands. We integrated housing density estimates with the 1992/1993 National Land Cover Dataset to examine the relationship between rural sprawl and land cover, especially forests. Between 1940 and 2000, private land with <2 housing units/km² decreased from 47% to 21% of the total landscape. Most importantly, housing growth was concentrated along the boundaries of public lands. In 14 of the 19 counties that we studied, housing growth rates within 1 km of a public land boundary exceeded growth rates in the remainder of the county, and three of the five counties that did not exhibit this pattern, were the ones with the least amount of public land. Future growth can be expected in areas with abundant natural amenities, highlighting the critical need for additional research and effective natural resource management and regional planning to address these challenges.     

人海和谐视角下沿海城市国土空间开发建设适宜性评价研究——以江苏省沿海地区为例

国土空间开发适宜性评价对合理开发国土空间、优化国土空间利用格局具有重要的科学指导价值。遵循陆海统筹原则,采用短板原理、线性加权求和法、空间叠加分析法,从自然环境适宜性、资源环境承载力两个方面构建适宜性评价指标体系,通过对经济社会统计数据、空间数据的处理叠加,对江苏省沿海城市南通、盐城、连云港国土空间开发适宜性进行评价与分析。研究结果表明,国土空间开发适宜性空间分异明显,江苏沿海地区不适宜、基本不适宜、基本适宜、适宜区域面积分别为14 710.37 km²、3376.18 km²、6776.30 km²、5695.64km²,分别占陆域国土总面积的46.76%、10.73%、21.54%、18.10%,各地级市外围区域保护与发展之间的矛盾较为突出。     

The Impact of Nature-Based Tourism on Bird Communities: A Case Study in Pallas-Yllästunturi National Park

Nature-based tourism and recreation within and close to protected areas may have negative environmental impacts on biodiversity due to urban development, landscape fragmentation, and increased disturbance. We conducted a 3-year study of disturbances of birds induced by nature-based tourism over a recreational gradient in the Pallas-Yllästunturi National Park and its surroundings in northern Finland. Bird assemblages were studied in highly disturbed areas close to the park (a ski resort, villages, and accommodation areas) and in campfire sites, along hiking routes (recreational areas) and in a forest (control area) within the park. Compared with the forest, the disturbed urbanized areas had higher abundances of human-associated species, corvid species, cavity and building nesters, and edge species. The abundances of managed forest species were higher in campfire sites than in the forest. Hiking trails and campfire sites did not have a negative impact on open-nesting bird species. The most likely reason for this outcome is that most campfire sites were situated at forest edges; this species group prefers managed forests and forest edge as a breeding habitat. The abundances of virgin forest species did not differ among the areas studied. The results of the study suggest that the current recreation pressure has not caused substantial changes in the forest bird communities within the National Park. We suggest that the abundances of urban exploiter species could be used as indicators to monitor the level and changes of urbanization and recreational pressure at tourist destinations.     

Protected areas and deforestation: new results from high‐resolution panel data

This paper investigates the effectiveness of protected areas in slowing tropical forest clearing in 64 countries in Asia/Pacific, Africa and Latin America during the period of 2001–2012 by comparing deforestation rates inside and within 10 km outside of the boundaries of protected areas. Annual time series of these deforestation rates were constructed from recently published high‐resolution data on forest clearing from Hansen et al. (2013). For 4,028 parks, panel estimation based on a variety of park characteristics was conducted to test if deforestation was lower in protected areas because of their protected status, or if other factors explained the difference. From a sample of 726 parks established since 2002, a test was also conducted to investigate the effect of park establishment on protection. Findings suggest park size, national park status and management by indigenous people all are significantly associated with effective protection across regions. For the Asia/Pacific region, the test offers compelling evidence that park establishment has a near‐immediate and powerful effect.     

NUTRIENT LOADS TO WISCONSIN LAKES: PART I. NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS EXPORT COEFFICIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Export coefficients (kg/km²/yr) for dissolved ortho-phosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), total inorganic nitrogen (TIN), and total nitrogen (TN) were derived for watersheds in Wisconsin using data bases available for 17 basins from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — National Eutrophication Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Three general land use categories, representative of most regions in Wisconsin, were established: forest, mixed, and agricultural. Data for the 17 basins indicated greater exports of OP. TP, TIN, and TN as the percentage of forest decreased and agriculture increased. These region-specific coefficients are compared to the values reported in the literature representing much broader areas of the U.S.     

Perceived Conflicts Between Pastoralism and Conservation of the Kiang Equus kiang in the Ladakh Trans-Himalaya, India

An emerging conflict with Trans-Himalayan pastoral communities in Ladakh’s Changthang Plateau threatens the conservation prospects of the kiang (Equus kiang) in India. It is locally believed that Changthang’s rangelands are overstocked with kiang, resulting in forage competition with livestock. Here, we provide a review and preliminary data on the causes of this conflict. Erosion of people’s tolerance of the kiang can be attributed to factors such as the loss of traditional pastures during an Indo-Chinese war fought in 1962, immigration of refugees from Tibet, doubling of the livestock population in about 20 years, and increasing commercialization of cashmere (pashmina) production. The perception of kiang overstocking appears misplaced, because our range-wide density estimate of 0.24 kiang km⁻² (± 0.44, 95% CL) is comparable to kiang densities reported from Tibet. A catastrophic decline during the war and subsequent recovery of the kiang population apparently led to the overstocking perception in Ladakh. In the Hanle Valley, an important area for the kiang, its density was higher (0.56 km⁻²) although even here, we estimated the total forage consumed by kiang to be only 3–4% compared to 96–97% consumed by the large livestock population (78 km⁻²). Our analysis nevertheless suggests that at a localized scale, some herders do face serious forage competition from kiang in key areas such as moist sedge meadows, and thus management strategies also need to be devised at this scale. In-depth socioeconomic surveys are needed to understand the full extent of the conflicts, and herder-centered participatory resolution needs to be facilitated to ensure that a sustainable solution for livelihoods and kiang conservation is achieved.     

Conceptual Framework of Connectivity for a National Agroecosystem Model Based on Transport Processes and Management Practices

There is a critical need for a national agroecosystem model for conservation policy and environmental planning, driven by issues including harmful algal blooms, water scarcity, flooding, and other weather‐related extremes. In this study, we illustrate the feasibility of a national agroecosystem model that will downscale processes to individual fields and first‐order channels. We propose to conceptually divide the conterminous United States (U.S.) into process domains as a framework for simulating processes and management at relevant scales. Specifically, we are proposing five domains: field (1–50 ha), transition (0.2–2.0 km²), headwater (1–15 km²), tributaries (15–150 km²), and main river (>150 km²). The proposed conceptual framework hydrologically connects fields across the U.S. using the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus version 2). Parameterizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the national agroecosystem model resulted in 4,880,000 agricultural fields, 2,250,000 non‐agricultural hydrologic response units, and 7,130,000 transition, 1,610,000 headwater, 591,000 tributary, and 432,400 main channels. Application of this framework was shown for Hydrologic Unit Code 07120002 in central Illinois and Indiana to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach using data that is readily available across the U.S. The new connectivity framework has the potential to dramatically improve national conservation and environmental assessments performed by U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

Contribution of In‐Channel Processes to Sediment Yield of an Urbanizing Watershed1

Abstract: A study was conducted between September 2003 and September 2006 to obtain baseline sediment inventories and monitor sediment transport and storage along a 3.7 km length of the channel of Valley Creek within Valley Forge National Historical Park, Pennsylvania. Valley Creek is a tributary of the Schuylkill River and drains an urbanizing 60.6 km² watershed that currently has 18% impervious land cover. Numerous field methods were employed to measure the suspended sediment yield, longitudinal profile, cross‐sections, banklines, and particle size distribution of the streambed. Suspended sediment yield for the watershed was measured at a USGS gage located just upstream of the park boundary between July 2004 and July 2005, the period corresponding to field surveys of bank erosion and channel change. The estimated suspended sediment yield of 95.7 t/km²/year is representative of a year with unusually high discharge, including a storm event that produced a peak of 78 m³/s, the second highest discharge on record for the USGS gage. Based on the median annual streamflow for the 24 years of record at the USGS gage from 1983 to 2006, the median annual sediment yield is estimated to be closer to 34 t/km²/year, considerably lower than median and mean values for other sites within the region. The mass of silt, clay, and fine sand derived from bank erosion along the 3.7 km study reach during the field survey period accounts for an estimated 2,340 t, equivalent to about 43% of the suspended sediment load. The mass of fine sediment stored in the bed along the study reach was estimated at 1,500 t, with about 330 t of net erosion during the study period. Although bank erosion appears to be a potentially dominant source of sediment by comparison with annual suspended sediment load, bed sediment storage and potential for remobilization is of the same order of magnitude as the mass of sediment derived from bank erosion.     

Demographic shifts around drinking water supply reservoirs in North Carolina,USA

Infrastructure intended to serve the public good frequently has implications for environmental justice and social sustainability. Drinking water supplies for sub/urban areas in North Carolina, USA, have regularly been secured by constructing dams to impound reservoirs. We used high-resolution, publicly available US Census data to explore whether 66 such reservoirs in North Carolina have induced demographic shifts in the communities that find themselves adjacent to the newly created lakeshores. Our principal findings include: (1) The ratio of white people to non-white people was significantly higher in communities within 0.5 miles of reservoir shorelines than in more distant communities; (2) even as North Carolina overall became less white from 1990 to 2010, the ratio of white people to non-white people within the 0.5 miles of the shoreline increased relative to the overall ratio in the State; and (3) similar, but less distinct, shifts in per capita income occurred during the period. Our results are consistent with the proposition that reservoirs have induced demographic shifts in communities adjacent to newly created lakeshores similar to the shifts associated with environmental gentrification and amenity migration, and may now be associated with perpetuating those shifts. These findings raise concerns about environmental justice and social sustainability that should be considered when planning and building infrastructure that creates environmental amenities. Where reservoirs are being planned, social costs, including the costs of demographic shifts associated with environmental gentrification or amenity migration, and disproportionate regulatory burdens, should be mitigated through innovative policy if possible.     

Habitat evaluation of wild Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and conservation priority setting in north-eastern China

The Amur Tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is one of the world’s most endangered species. Recently, habitat fragmentation, food scarcity and human hunting have drastically reduced the population size and distribution areas of Amur tigers in the wild, leaving them on the verge of extinction. Presently, they are only found in the north-eastern part of China. In this study, we developed a reference framework using methods and technologies of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), GAP analysis and Natural Break (Jenks) classification to evaluate the habitat and to set the conservation priorities for Amur tigers in eastern areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces of northeast China. We proposed a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) incorporating 7 factors covering natural conditions and human disturbance. Based on the HSI values, the suitability was classified into five levels from the most to not suitable. Finally, according to results of GAP analysis, we identified six conservation priorities and designed a conservation landscape incorporating four new nature reserves, enlarging two existing ones, and creating four linkages for Amur tigers in northeast China. The case study showed that the core habitats (the most suitable and highly suitable habitats) identified for Amur tigers covered 35,547 km², accounting for approximately 26.71% of the total study area (1,33,093 km²). However, existing nature reserves protected only (7124 km² or) 20.04% of the identified core habitats. Thus, enlargement of current reserves is necessary and urgent for the tiger’s conservation and restoration. Moreover, the establishment of wildlife corridors linking core habitats will provide an efficient reserve network for tiger conservation to maintain the evolutionary potential of Amur tigers facing environmental changes.     

The biodiversity challenge: Expanded hot-spots analysis

Summary This paper aims to throw light on the mass extinction that is overtaking Earth's species. Using an analytic methodology developed for an earlier partial assessment, it focuses on a series of hot-spot areas, these being areas that (a) feature exceptional concentrations of species with high levels of endemism, and (b) face exceptional threats of destruction. The paper identifies another eight such areas, four of them in tropical forests and four in Mediterranean-type zones. The analysis reveals that the four tropical-forest areas contain at least 2,835 endemic plant species in 18,700 km², or 1.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.013 percent of Earth's land surface; and that the four Mediterranean-type areas contain 12,720 endemic plan: species in 435,700 km², or 5.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of the Earth's land surface. Taken together, these eight hot-spot areas contain 15,555 endemic plant species in 454,400 km², or 6.2 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of Earth's land surface. This is to be compared with the earlier hot-spots analysis of 10 tropical-forest areas, with 34,400 endemic plant species in 292,000 km², or 13.8 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.2 percent of Earth's land surface.Taking all 18 hot-spot areas together, we find they support 49,955 endemic plant species, or 20 percent of Earth's plant species, in 746,400 km², or 0.5 percent of Earth's land surface. This means that one fifth of Earth's plant species are confined to half of one percent of the Earth's land surface — and they occur in habitats that are mostly threatened with imminent destruction.By concentrating on these hot-spot areas where needs are greatest and where the pay-off from safeguard measures would be greatest, conservationists can engage in a more systematised response to the challenge of large scale impending extinctions.Dr Norman Myers is a consultant in environment and development, a member of this journal's Advisory Board, and a regular contributor to the journal. He is a Senior Fellow of World Wildlife Fund — US. This paper enlarges on an important theme developed by Dr Myers in a contribution which appeared inThe Environmentalist,8(3), 187–208. The research for this paper has been supported by the MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, USA.     

A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features.The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations.Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km² (200 people/mile²). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km² (50 people/mile²), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate.Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative to transportation network and population distribution data. The models can be used on a regional scale to quickly map the relative site suitability for a RAP or RPCC aggregate recycling operation in a particular area based on transportation network and population parameters. The results can be used to identify general areas to be further evaluated on a site-specific basis using more detailed marketplace information. As transportation or population features change due to planning or actual development, the models can be easily revised to reflect these changes.     

Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt

Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks (Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km² mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007–2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km² in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to 57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76–266 thousand trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of $18–60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial, they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction, from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets.     

HYDROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS OF LANDSAT IMAGERY USED IN THE STUDY OF THE 1973 INDUS RIVER FLOOD,PAKISTAN1

ABSTRACT: During August and September 1973, the Indus River Valley of Pakistan experienced one of the largest floods on record, resulting in damages to homes, businesses, public works, and crops amounting to millions of rupees. Tremendous areas of lowlands were inundated along the Indus River and major tributaries. Landsat data made it possible to easily measure the extent of flooding, totaling about 20,000 km² within an area of about 400,000 km² south from the Punjab to the Arabian Sea. The Indus River data were used to continue experimentation in the development of rapid, accurate, and inexpensive optical techniques of flood mapping by satellite begun in 1973 for the Mississipi River floods. The research work on the Indus River not resulted in the development of more effective procedures for optical processing of flood data and synoptically depicting flooding, but also provided potentially valuable ancillary information concerning the hydrology of much of the Indus River Basin.     

Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model1

Masih Ilyas, Shreedhar Maskey, Stefan Uhlenbrook, and Vladimir Smakhtin, 2011. Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):179‐195. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00502.x Abstract: Reduction of input uncertainty is a challenge in hydrological modeling. The widely used model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) uses the data of a precipitation gauge nearest to the centroid of each subcatchment as an input for that subcatchment. This may not represent overall catchment precipitation conditions well. This paper suggests an alternative – using areal precipitation obtained through interpolation. The effectiveness of this alternative is evaluated by comparing its simulations with those based on the standard SWAT precipitation input procedure. The model is applied to mountainous semiarid catchments in the Karkheh River basin, Iran. The model performance is evaluated at daily, monthly, and annual scales by using a number of performance indicators at 15 streamflow gauging stations each draining an area in the range of 590‐42,620 km². The comparison suggests that the use of areal precipitation improves model performance particularly in small subcatchments in the range of 600‐1,600 km². The modified areal precipitation input results in increased reliability of simulated streamflows in the areas of low rain gauge density. Both precipitation input methods result in reasonably good simulations for larger catchments (over 5,000 km²). The use of areal precipitation input improves the accuracy of simulated streamflows with spatial resolution and density of rain gauges having significant impact on results.     

Quantification and spatial characterization of in-use copper stocks in Shanghai

Shanghai is the largest industrial and commercial city of China, where in-use stocks of metals are likely to be significant. The in-use stocks of copper in this city are thus established by an extensive “bottom-up” study. Spatial distribution of copper stocks within Shanghai has further been characterized for better understanding of copper utilization pattern of this city. For the year 2012, the results are a total stock of 914.6 Gg Cu, and 38.4–64.1 kg Cu per capita. Nearly 94% of copper stocks distribute in subcategories of electric power transmission and distribution, water transmission and distribution, buildings, and household durable. Features of spatial distribution show that three central districts of Jing An, Hong Kou and Huang Pu have the spatial density of more than 1 Gg/km². And Chong Ming county and Jin Shan District have the lowest spatial density of about 0.01 Gg/km². It has been found that the copper stock density within Shanghai is largely determined by population density and economic development level.     

ESTIMATING RUNOFF VOLUMES FROM URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Estimations of runoff volumes from urban areas can be made by the equation Q = a A σ(P_e– b), where Q is the runoff volume, a is the part of the total area A Contributing to runoff, P_e is the rainfall amount for a single event, and b is the initial rainfall losses. For the evaluation of a and b, rainfall/runoff measurements were made in five areas of sizes between 0.035 km² and 1.450 km². By linear regression analysis of rainfall volumes versus runoff volumes, the initial rainfall losses were found to vary from 0.38 mm to 0.70 mm for the different areas. The parts of the areas contributing to runoff were found to be proportional to the impermeable parts of the mas. The equation is applicable in urban areas with well defined paved surfaces and roofs and with a negligible amount of runoff from permeable areas.     

FACTORS AFFECTING PESTICIDE OCCURRENCE AND TRANSPORT IN A LARGE MIDWESTERN RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Several factors affect the occurrence and transport of pesticides in surface waters of the 29,400 km² White River Basin in Indiana. A relationship was found between pesticide use and the average annual concentration of that pesticide in the White River, although this relationship varies for different classes of pesticides. About one percent of the mass applied of each of the commonly used agricultural herbicides was transported from the basin via the White River. Peak pesticide concentrations were typically highest in late spring or early summer and were associated with periods of runoff following application. Concentrations of diazinon were higher in an urban basin than in two agricultural basins, corresponding to the common use of this insecticide on lawns and gardens in urban areas. Concentrations of atrazine, a corn herbicide widely used in the White River Basin, were higher in an agricultural basin with permeable, well‐drained soils, than in an agricultural basin with less permeable, more poorly drained soils. Although use of butylate and cyanazine was comparable in the White River Basin between 1992 and 1994, concentrations in the White River of butylate, which is incorporated into soil, were substantially less than for cyanazine, which is typically applied to the soil surface.