Evaluating the policy to restrict the potentially invasive black carp (Mylopharyngodon Piceus): A decision protocol with assurance bonding

The introduction of potentially invasive species is a concern to the public and the aquaculture industry. Used to protect channel catfish from infectious trematode infestations, the non-indigenous black carp has been evaluated by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and deemed potentially ‘injurious’ under the terms of the Lacey Act. Consequently, the black carp may be restricted from interstate commerce and eventually removed from US waters. An alternative approach to evaluating the risks posed by invasive species is considered and compared to that used by the USFWS. Short of outright restriction, reasonable options for management of such invasive species probably exist, including better use of environmental assurance bonds and return-deposit models.     

The 1976 outbreak of Hog Cholera in New Jersey: An application of geology to a biological emergency

Hog cholera is a highly contagious virus disease of swine. Since 1962, a Hog Cholera Eradication Program has replaced vaccination as the control mechanism in the U.S. Because the cholera agent requires a live host to thrive, quarantine and herd depopulation are ordered at every U.S. outbreak. The results have been positive and dramatic.The presence of hog cholera was confirmed in Gloucester County, New Jersey, on February 26, 1976. A cooperative State-Federal task force was mobilized to contain and eliminate the infection. Burial would be the disposal technique. For the first time a geologist was requested to augment outbreak control, with responsibility to pinpoint safe burial sites for thousands of animals. USDA emergency policy and procedures limited the options of the assisting geologist, but basic geologic judgments sufficed during appraisals of burial sites. Ultimately, 10 sites were needed and used; other locations proposed during the course of the outbreak were judged hydrogeologically unsuitable and were therefore rejected. Each excavation was sited to minimize potential impact on local aquifers, chiefly by maintaining maximum separation from the water table and by prudent siting within the hydrogeology of the outbreak area.From the first positive confirmation to the end of the active outbreak, a period of four weeks, 15,741 swine totaling over 1 million kg were destroyed and buried. The resulting indemnity was just under $3 million. Because of effective cooperative action during the New Jersey incident, geologic appraisal during large U.S. livestock depopulations now promises to become standard procedure.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

环境污染责任保险的美国经验及中国实践

环境污染责任保险是一种基于市场手段的环境风险管理方法,通过为具有环境污染风险的企业提供商业保险,从而为被保企业的环境污染及治理责任提供一定的保障,同时促进企业主动降低其环境风险。环责险在我国经过了多年的试点和推广,取得了一定成绩,但是也面临许多困难。本文借鉴环责险在美国发展的经验,识别环责险市场发展的条件,同时评价我国环责险市场发展是否具备这些条件,并为进一步促进环责险发展提供建议。     

Bird Mortality in Oil Field Wastewater Disposal Facilities

Commercial and centralized oilfield wastewater disposal facilities (COWDFs) are used in the Western United States for the disposal of formation water produced from oil and natural gas wells. In Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, COWDFs use large evaporation ponds to dispose of the wastewater. Birds are attracted to these large evaporation ponds which, if not managed properly, can cause wildlife mortality. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted 154 field inspections of 28 COWDFs in Wyoming from March 1998 through September 2008 and documented mortality of birds and other wildlife in 9 COWDFs. Of 269 bird carcasses recovered from COWDFs, grebes (Family Podicipedidae) and waterfowl (Anatidae) were the most frequent casualties. Most mortalities were attributed to oil on evaporation ponds, but sodium toxicity and surfactants were the suspected causes of mortality at three COWDFs. Although the oil industry and state and federal regulators have made much progress in reducing bird mortality in oil and gas production facilities, significant mortality incidents continue in COWDFs, particularly older facilities permitted in the early 1980’s. Inadequate operation and management of these COWDFs generally results in the discharge of oil into the large evaporation ponds which poses a risk for birds and other wildlife.     

Antibiotic Resistance Due to Modern Agricultural Practices: An Ethical Perspective

The use of subtherapeutic doses of antibiotics in food-producing animals has been linked to antibiotic resistant infections in humans. Although this practice has been banned in Europe, the U.S. regulatory authorities have been slow to act. This paper discusses the regulatory hurdles and ethical dilemmas of banning this practice within the context of the risk analysis model (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication). Specific issues include unethical use of scientific uncertainty during the risk assessment phase, the rejection of the precautionary principle leading to ineffective risk management, and the criticality of risk communication to build consensus and force action. The underlying root cause is a conflict of values (Type I ethical problem) among key stakeholders, which is examined in depth along with an ethical analysis using public health ethical values.     

污染土壤的生态风险评估标准、方法和模型

本文介绍了生态风险评估的定义,国外在污染土壤生态风险评估领域的相关土壤标准、标准设置情况及其内容,生态风险评估的方法和步骤,土壤-有机污染物变化及迁移暴露模型、农药根区模型、土壤模型、土壤迁移及变化数据库和模型管理系统、农药径流对地表水的污染模型、多介质污染物变化、迁移和暴露模型等计算机模型及其理论基础。尤其是美国环保署在这一领域的系列工作及其思路,为国内在这方面的工作和研究提供一些参考。     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.     

A risk model for predicting the effects of lake-side development on wildfowl populations

The lack of quantitative analysis and general scientific rigour in environmental impact assessment (EIA) is well documented. While reasons for this may include political and economic factors, the lack of high-level statistical knowledge and skills in environmental consultancies probably contributes to the problem, particularly with regard to ecological studies. This paper develops a simple model for wintering wildfowl populations that predicts different levels of risk from lake-side development. The aim was to create a model that could be used easily and quickly by consultants, is readily understandable for developers and various groups associated with the planning process, with explicit assumptions that can be criticised, and predictions that can be tested with post-development audits. The model is used in a case study. The basic parameters of the model are (i) average wildfowl abundance on lakes before development, (ii) maximum potential density of wildfowl across lakes (Kmax) before development, and (iii) reduction in lake area suitable for wildfowl after development. The model includes abundance-area relationships that are useful for highlighting the importance of particular lakes at a site. In the case study, abundance-area relationships focused attention on two lakes with thick charophyte beds which supported higher than expected numbers of pochard and coot given their size. As well as being robust (confidence limits are calculated), the model's predictions are quantitative and testable, making it possible to compare the predictions with on-going post-development monitoring of wildfowl population levels. The predictions rely on the effectiveness of path screening, and post-development monitoring can suggest where screening should be strengthened if the model's predictions are not met. Similarly, if other assumptions in the model are not met by the development, appropriate action can be implemented.     

A study of the relationship between regional ferrous scrap prices in the USA, 1958–2004

This paper discusses univariate and mulitvariate methods used to deal with seasonal data with special emphasis on periodic models. These models are examined within the context of three regional U.S. ferrous scrap prices. All these variables can be described as being periodically integrated. The periodic models identified will be of use in assessing the future profitability of electric arc steel making. These scrap prices are shown to be periodically cointegrated in three of the four quarters with rapid speeds of adjustment to these long run equilibria. The cointegration relations have implications for the location of minimills.     

Applying Ecological Risk Principles to Watershed Assessment and Management

Considerable progress in addressing point source (end of pipe) pollution problems has been made, but it is now recognized that further substantial environmental improvements depend on controlling nonpoint source pollution. A watershed approach is being used more frequently to address these problems because traditional regulatory approaches do not focus on nonpoint sources. The watershed approach is organized around the guiding principles of partnerships, geographic focus, and management based on sound science and data. This helps to focus efforts on the highest priority problems within hydrologically-defined geographic areas. Ecological risk assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze, and present scientific information to improve decision making. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored three watershed assessments and found that integrating the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in decision making. This paper describes the basics of the watershed approach, the ecological risk assessment process, and how these two frameworks can be integrated. The three major principles of watershed ecological risk assessment found to be most useful for increasing the use of science in decision making are (1) using assessment endpoints and conceptual models, (2) holding regular interactions between scientists and managers, and (3) developing a focus for multiple stressor analysis. Examples are provided illustrating how these principles were implemented in these assessments.     

Formulating an ecosystem approach to environmental protection

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has embraced a new strategy of environmental protection that is place-driven rather than program-driven. This new approach focuses on the protection of entire ecosystems. To develop an effective strategy of ecosystem protection, however, EPA will need to: (1) determine how to define and delineate ecosystems and (2) categorize threats to individual ecosystems and priority rank ecosystems at risk. Current definitions of ecosystem in use at EPA are inadequate for meaningful use in a management or regulatory context. A landscape-based definition that describes an ecosystem as a volumetric unit delineated by climatic and landscape features is suggested. Following this definition, ecosystems are organized hierarchically, from megaecosystems, which exist on a continental scale (e.g., Great Lakes), to small local ecosystems.Threats to ecosystems can generally be categorized as: (1) ecosystem degradation (occurs mainly through pollution) (2) ecosystem alteration (physical changes such as water diversion), and (3) ecosystem removal (e.g., conversion of wetlands or forest to urban or agricultural lands). Level of threat (i.e., how imminent), and distance from desired future condition are also important in evaluating threats to ecosystems. Category of threat, level of threat, and distance from desired future condition can be combined into a three-dimensional ranking system for ecosystems at risk. The purpose of the proposed ranking system is to suggest a preliminary framework for agencies such as EPA to prioritize responses to ecosystems at risk.     

What Influences Innovation Adoption by Water Managers? Climate Information Use in Brazil and the United States1

Abstract: This paper examines the use of climate forecasting in water management in Brazil and the United States (U.S.). Specifically, it seeks to understand how different institutional arrangements shape the willingness and ability of water managers to incorporate technoscience, especially seasonal climate forecasting (SCF), in their decision‐making process. It argues that among the many factors shaping the willingness of water managers to use SCF, institutional design and change is critical to explain different patterns in Brazil and the U.S. Moreover, factors related to individual flexibility, discretion, and accountability also affect the ability of managers to use climate information in water management. This paper finds that while water managers in the U.S operate in a mostly fragmented and risk‐averse system – which constrains the adoption of innovation – decision makers in Brazil can afford more flexibility to introduce new decision tools as a result of widespread water management reforms initiated in the 1990s.     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

美国环保署农药地下水风险评估模型

在介绍美国农药环境风险评估的概念、分级、地下水农药监测情况及水资源的立法保护等基础上,重点阐述了美国环保署在农药登记管理过程中使用的2个地下水风险评估模型,即SCI-GROW和PRZM-GW模型。SCI-GROW是以好氧条件土壤半衰期和土壤有机碳分配系数为自变量的经验线性回归模型,而PRZM-GW则是描述农药在土壤中运动的一维、有限差分模型。本文通过对美国环保署这2个特点鲜明的模型的介绍,希望能为我国的农药地下水风险评估及模型的开发提供一个新视角。     

Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SALMONID SPAWNING HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model [Salmonid Spawning Analysis Model (SSAM)] was developed as a management tool to evaluate the relative impacts of stream sediment load and water temperature on salmonid egg survival. The model is useful for estimating acceptable sediment loads to spawning habitat that may result from upland development, such as logging and agriculture. Software in common use in the USA were adapted for use in gravel bedded rivers and linked to simulate water temperature (the USFWS Instream Water Temperature, SNTEMP model) and water and sediment routing (the USAE Scour and Deposition in Rivers and Reservoirs, HEC-6 model, version 3.2). These models drive the redd (spawning nest) model (the USDA-ABS Sediment Intrusion Dissolved Oxygen SIDO model) which simulates sediment intrusion and dissolved oxygen concentration in the redd environment. The SSAM model predictions of dissolved oxygen and water temperature compared favorably with field data from artificial redds containing hatchery chinook salmon eggs.     

Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Estimating the Economic Value of National Parks with Count Data Models Using On-Site,Secondary Data: The Case of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

We estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado using on-site, secondary data. The purpose of the on-site survey was to help the National Park Service better understand the visitors of GSD; it was not intended for a travel cost model. Variables such as travel cost and income were estimated based on respondents’ Zip Codes. Following approaches found in the literature, a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best. We estimate a recreational benefit of U.S. $89/visitor/year or U.S. $54/visitor/24-h recreational day (in 2002 U.S. $). Based on the approach presented here, there are other data sets for national parks, preserves, and battlefields where travel cost models could be estimated and used to support National Park Service management decisions.     

比较风险评价在环境风险管理中的应用

在环境风险管理中,需要针对不同的管理目标进行评估与排序,实现有限资源供给下的风险管理效率最大化提升。作为环境风险优先管理中的一个重要内容,比较风险评价是针对不同类型环境问题进行评估与排序的方法,它可以从宏观尺度上有效识别出各类环境问题的风险大小顺序,并有针对性进行管理优先级的设置。本文在对国内外比较风险评价研究进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对我国环境风险管理的意义,提出我国在开展环境问题的比较风险评价、建立与完善环境风险管理工作优先级等方面的建议。