Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Agriculture,ethics, and restrictions on property rights

The argument in this essay is twofold. (1) Procedural justice requires,in particular cases, that we restrict property rights in natural resources, e.g., California agricultural land or Appalachian coal land. (2) Conditions imposed by Locke's political theory and by dense population require,in general, that we restrict property rights in finite or non-renewable natural resources such as land. If these arguments are correct, then we have a moral imperative to use land-use controls (such as taxation, planning, zoning, and acreage limitations) to restructure land ownership and land use in a far more radical way than has ever been accomplished in the past.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Controls on Nutrients Across a Prairie Stream Watershed: Land Use and Riparian Cover Effects

Nutrient inputs generally are increased by human-induced land use changes and can lead to eutrophication and impairment of surface waters. Understanding the scale at which land use influences nutrient loading is necessary for the development of management practices and policies that improve water quality. The authors assessed the relationships between land use and stream nutrients in a prairie watershed dominated by intermittent stream flow in the first-order higher elevation reaches. Total nitrogen, nitrate, and phosphorus concentrations were greater in tributaries occupying the lower portions of the watershed, closely mirroring the increased density of row crop agriculture from headwaters to lower-elevation alluvial areas. Land cover classified at three spatial scales in each sub-basin above sampling sites (riparian in the entire catchment, catchment land cover, and riparian across the 2 km upstream) was highly correlated with variation in both total nitrogen (r² = 53%, 52%, and 49%, respectively) and nitrate (r² = 69%, 65%, and 56%, respectively) concentrations among sites. However, phosphorus concentrations were not significantly associated with riparian or catchment land cover classes at any spatial scale. Separating land use from riparian cover in the entire watershed was difficult, but riparian cover was most closely correlated with in-stream nutrient concentrations. By controlling for land cover, a significant correlation of riparian cover for the 2 km above the sampling site with in-stream nutrient concentrations could be established. Surprisingly, land use in the entire watershed, including small intermittent streams, had a large influence on average downstream water quality although the headwater streams were not flowing for a substantial portion of the year. This suggests that nutrient criteria may not be met only by managing permanently flowing streams.     

Including Riparian Vegetation in the Definition of Morphologic Reference Conditions for Large Rivers: A Case Study for Europe’s Western Plains

Methods for defining and retrieving reference conditions for large rivers were explored with emphasis on hydromorphologic and biologic quality indicators. For a set of four large rivers in the European Western Plains ecoregion, i.e., the rivers Meuse, Loire, Allier, and Dordogne, reference reaches were selected based on geomorphologic characteristics. A survey of riparian land use, vegetation, and bed geometry was done for the selected reaches. Responses of the riparian landscape to hydromorphologic conditions were determined with a set of existing and newly developed measures of riparian dynamics and forest development. Strong correlations were observed at the reach and local levels between the ratios of width to depth and embankment and the developed measures of riparian dynamics and forest. Boundary conditions for riparian forest development were determined for the hydromorphologic and biologic indicators of riparian dynamics and vegetation structure. These conditions also proved useful for determining the presence of sustainable populations of Populus nigra and Salix purpurea. From this agreement between abiotic and biotic boundary conditions, a set of useful reference conditions was determined, and a framework for the definition of reference and good status conditions subsequently evolved. Finally, a proposal for assessment and monitoring the proposed indicators is discussed for its applicability.     

Decoupling Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Changes in a Watershed in Northern China

Restored annual streamflow (Q_r) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Q_r decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (p < 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Q_r during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Q_r, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.     

Procedural Integration in Support of Environmental Policy Objectives: Implementing Sustainability

Translating sustainability policy goals into concrete action has proven to be a complex challenge for government agencies, municipalities and businesses. Existing planning and decision-making methods, such as Comprehensive Planning, Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management Systems, are being used to address this focus on sustainability. United States Army policy requires the use of these three procedures by installation planners and managers, providing a unique opportunity for innovation. This paper examines the applicability of these procedures for implementing the Army's sustainable operations policy goals, and explores how the current independent and disconnected implementation can be improved through integration. Included in this analysis is a review of organizational barriers to integrated planning and management. The analysis is applicable outside the Army as these three decision-making procedures are used in many contexts, and installation management shares many characteristics with local government land use planning, federal land management, and corporate business operations.     

Farmers' assessment of the social and ecological values of land uses in central highland Ethiopia

Often in land use evaluations, especially those in developing countries, only the financial aspect receives serious attention, while the social and ecological values are overlooked. This study compared the social and ecological values of four land use types (small-scale woodlot [SSW], boundary tree and shrub planting [BTP], homestead tree and shrub growing [HTG] and cereal farming [CF]) by a criteria-based scoring approach using a bao game. The impacts of local wealth status and proximity to a forest on the value the community renders to the land use types were also assessed. The value comparison, assessed by relative scoring, was accompanied by farmer’s explanations to reveal the existing local knowledge about land use values. It was found that HTG ≥ SSW > BTP > CF for both social and ecological values. Though this trend applies for the medium and rich households, the poor ones chose SSW as the most valuable. With increasing distance from a forest, the social and ecological values of land uses increased. The accompanying scoring justifications indicated the existence of in-depth ecological knowledge, which conform to contemporary scientific reports. Generally, this study showed that social and ecological values, besides financial values, strongly influence farmer’s decision in implementing various practices related to the land use types. Thus, such values are worth considering for a holistic understanding of the diverse benefits of land uses. Finally, the strong preference for tree and shrub-based land use types is a good opportunity for enhancing tree and shrub growing to minimize the major environmental problems (e.g., soil degradation, wood shortage and deforestation) in the central highlands of Ethiopia.     

Agricultural BMP Effectiveness and Dominant Hydrological Flow Paths: Concepts and a Review

We present a conceptual framework that relates agricultural best management practice (BMP) effectiveness with dominant hydrological flow paths to improve nonpoint source (NPS) pollution management. We use the framework to analyze plot, field and watershed scale published studies on BMP effectiveness to develop transferable recommendations for BMP selection and placement at the watershed scale. The framework is based on the location of the restrictive layer in the soil profile and distinguishes three hydrologic land types. Hydrologic land type A has the restrictive layer at the surface and BMPs that increase infiltration are effective. In land type B1, the surface soil has an infiltration rate greater than the prevailing precipitation intensity, but there is a shallow restrictive layer causing lateral flow and saturation excess overland flow. Few structural practices are effective for these land types, but pollutant source management plans can significantly reduce pollutant loading. Hydrologic land type B2 has deep, well‐draining soils without restrictive layers that transport pollutants to groundwater via percolation. Practices that increased pollutant residence time in the mixing layer or increased plant water uptake were found as the most effective BMPs in B2 land types. Matching BMPs to the appropriate land type allows for better targeting of hydrologically sensitive areas within a watershed, and potentially more significant reductions of NPS pollutant loading.     

AGRICULTURE LAND‐USE EFFECTS ON NUTRIENT LOSSES IN WEST TIAOXI WATERSHED,CHINA1

ABSTRACT: Five types of land use/land covers in the West Tiaoxi watershed of China were studied for nutrient losses in artificial rainstorm runoff. A self‐designed rainfall simulator was used. In situ rainfall simulations were used to: (1) compare the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorous in different land use/land covers and (2) evaluate the flux of nitrogen and phosphorous export from runoff and sediment in various types of land use/land covers. Three duplicated experiments were carried out under rain intensity of 2 mm/min, each lasting 32 minutes on a 3 m² plot. Characteristics of various species of nitrogen and phosphorous in runoff and sediment were investigated. The results showed that the concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) were greatest in runoff from mulberry trees and smallest from pine forest. The TN and TP export was mainly from suspended particulate in runoff. TN and TP exports from the top 10 cm layer of five types of land use/land covers were estimated as high as 4.66 to 9.40 g/m² and 2.57 to 4.89 g/m², respectively, of which exports through sediment of runoff accounted for more than 90 percent and 97 percent. The rate of TN and TP exports ranged from 2.68 to approximately 14.48 and 0.45 to approximately 4.11 mg/m²/min in runoff; these rates were much lower than those of 100.01 to approximately 172.67 and 72.82 to approximately 135.96 mg/m²/min in the runoff sediment.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall-runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so-called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography. To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rica,Panama, Peru,and Bolivia

Our group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, 3 has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, we use estimates of land use and carbon storage organized into sixlife zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Our analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. We include sensitivity analysis of those factors that we found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.     

Using Regression Tree Analysis to Improve Predictions of Low-Flow Nitrate and Chloride in Willamette River Basin Watersheds

The use of regression tree analysis is examined as a tool to evaluate hydrologic and land use factors that affect nitrate and chloride stream concentrations during low-flow conditions. Although this data mining technique has been used to assess a range of ecological parameters, it has not previously been used for stream water quality analysis. Regression tree analysis was conducted on nitrate and chloride data from 71 watersheds in the Willamette River Basin to determine whether this method provides a greater predictive ability compared to standard multiple linear regression, and to elucidate the potential roles of controlling mechanisms. Metrics used in the models included a variety of watershed-scale landscape indices and land use classifications. Regression tree analysis significantly enhanced model accuracy over multiple linear regression, increasing nitrate R ² values from 0.38 to 0.75 and chloride R ² values from 0.64 to 0.85 and as indicated by the ΔAIC value. These improvements are primarily attributed to the ability for regression trees to more effectively handle interactions and manage non-linear functions associated with watershed heterogeneity within the basin. Whereas hydrologic factors governed the conservative chloride tracer in the model, land use dominated control of nitrate concentrations. Watersheds containing higher agricultural activity did not necessarily yield high nitrate concentrations, but agricultural areas combined with either small proportions of forested land or greater urbanization generated nitrate levels far exceeding water quality standards. Although further refinements are recommended, we conclude that regression tree analysis presents water resource managers a promising tool that improves on the predictive ability of standard statistical methods, provides insight into controlling mechanisms, and helps identify catchment characteristics associated with water quality impairment.     

WATERSHED AND LAKE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT: AN INTEGRATED MODELING APPROACH1

Watershed planning groups and action agencies seek to understand how lake water quality responds to changes in watershed management. This study developed and demonstrated the applicability of an integrated modeling approach for providing this information. An integrated model linking watershed conditions to water-quality of the receiving lake incorporated the following components: (1) an event-based AGNPS model to estimate watershed pollutant losses; (2) annualization of AGNPS results to produce annual lake pollutant loadings; (3) a base flow separation package, SAM, to estimate base flow; (4) estimates of nutrients in base flow and point sources; and (5) linkage of watershed loadings directly to EUTROMOD lake water quality algorithms. Results are presented for Melvern Lake, a 28-km² multipurpose reservoir with a 900-km² agricultural watershed in east central Kansas. Reasonable estimates of current lake quality were attained using an average phosphorus availability factor of 31 percent to calibrate model results to measured in-lake phosphorus. Comparison of a range of possible scenarios, including all cropland changed to no-till (best case) and all CRP and good-condition grasslands changed to cropland (worst case), indicated only a (4 percent change for in-lake phosphorus and a (2 percent change for chlorophyll a. These results indicated that this watershed is not sensitive to projected changes in land use and management.     

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Farmers’ Perceptions of Land Degradation and Stonewall Terraces in Central Palestine

Land degradation by soil erosion is a socioeconomic and environmental problem facing many developing countries. Application of stonewall terraces for soil moisture conservation is vital to reducing the environmental impacts of this phenomenon. To this end, a field plot experiment was conducted in the study area along with the use of a closed-ended questionnaire. The object of the experiment was to study the socioeconomic impacts of soil erosion on local farmers and their adoption of the stonewall terrace technique. The study showed a higher net profit in areas that had implemented terrace conservation practices than in areas that had not (i.e., 3.5 to 6 times higher net profit). Correlation analysis indicated that the farmers’ perceptions, land ownership, and geomorphology were significantly related to the farmers’ incentives and willingness to adopt terraces as soil conservation measures (P < 0.05), although the correlations were negative. Smallholder farmers (52% of the interviewed farmers) were involved in the sale of the agricultural land for urban uses, largely because of the high price and immediate returns offered. However, the associated land use changes warrant greater involvement of both the private and public sectors. This cooperation may be accomplished through the introduction of a long-term agricultural loan system and the development of proper legislation accompanied by a comprehensive and durable infrastructure and service system with the goal of reducing the negative impact of land use changes and encouraging sustainable use of resources.     

Comparison of Two Spatial Optimization Techniques: A Framework to Solve Multiobjective Land Use Distribution Problems

Two spatial optimization approaches, developed from the opposing perspectives of ecological economics and landscape planning and aimed at the definition of new distributions of farming systems and of land use elements, are compared and integrated into a general framework. The first approach, applied to a small river catchment in southwestern France, uses SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and a weighted goal programming model in combination with a geographical information system (GIS) for the determination of optimal farming system patterns, based on selected objective functions to minimize deviations from the goals of reducing nitrogen and maintaining income. The second approach, demonstrated in a suburban landscape near Leipzig, Germany, defines a GIS-based predictive habitat model for the search of unfragmented regions suitable for hare populations (Lepus europaeus), followed by compromise optimization with the aim of planning a new habitat structure distribution for the hare. The multifunctional problem is solved by the integration of the three landscape functions (“production of cereals,” “resistance to soil erosion by water,” and “landscape water retention”). Through the comparison, we propose a framework for the definition of optimal land use patterns based on optimization techniques. The framework includes the main aspects to solve land use distribution problems with the aim of finding the optimal or best land use decisions. It integrates indicators, goals of spatial developments and stakeholders, including weighting, and model tools for the prediction of objective functions and risk assessments. Methodological limits of the uncertainty of data and model outcomes are stressed. The framework clarifies the use of optimization techniques in spatial planning.     

Natural environmental impact assessment: A rational approach

A method is presented which combines environmental indices and estimates of inputs from various land uses to aid in environmental impact assessments. Unweighted pair/group cluster analyses are used to obtain relationships between easily observable environmental indices, such as vegetation types, soils, and geology, based on their mutual recurrence. These relationships are shown by using an ordination technique which shows the nature of complex impacts on a natural system. Results are used to develop anenvironmental effects sequence diagram based on known scientific and engineering principles and observed natural relationships. The diagram may be used in conjunction with land use data to estimate the possible magnitude of impacts on the pre-existing system which may result from such land use. Several examples are developed which quantify inputs from various land uses and which compare them with environmental inputs including point source and non-point source liquid and atmospheric emmissions, land modifications, and resource consumption. Known average values are used and a separate comparison is made in describing the vast differences between the project phases of construction versus longterm operation. A hypothetical environmental impact assessment is given for a small residential development in Chambers County, Texas, U.S. of A.     

Flooding and erosion hazards on the ontario great lakes shoreline: a human ecological approach to planning and management

Understanding flood and erosion hazards in the context of developing coastal management plans requires an appreciation for variations in climate, geology, vegetation, land uses, human activities and institutional arrangements. On the Great Lakes, fluctuating water levels are characterized by temporal variations in their magnitude and frequency and their impact on flooding and erosion also differ from site to site. The traditional planning and management mechanisms in Ontario, through the use of emergency responses and land use setbacks, have been insufficient in resolving the rising costs of damage to property due to flooding and erosion along the Great Lakes shoreline. There is a need to develop an alternative management model with a focus on understanding hazards in the context of their natural and human components. A case study of the preparation of a resource survey for the Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority illustrates the development of a human ecological approach and its applicability in developing shoreline management plans for the Great Lakes.     

Changes in Soil Particulate Organic Matter, Microbial Biomass, and Activity Following Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Lands in a Semi-Arid Area of Northeast China

Afforestation of agricultural lands has been one of the major land use changes in China in recent decades. To better understand the effect of such land use change on soil quality, we investigated selected soil physical, chemical and microbial properties (0–15 cm depth) in marginal agricultural land and a chronosequence of poplar (Populus euramericana cv. ‘N3016’) plantations (5-, 10-, 15- and 20-years old) in a semi-arid area of Northeast China. Soil bulk density significantly declined after conversion of agricultural lands to poplar plantations. Soil total organic carbon (TOC) and nitrogen (TN) concentrations, microbial biomass C (MBC) and potential N mineralization rate (PNM) decreased initially following afforestation of agricultural lands, and then increased with stand development. However, soil metabolic quotient (qCO₂) exhibited a reverse trend. In addition, soil particulate organic matter C (POM-C) and N (POM-N) concentrations showed no significant changes in the first 10 years following afforestation, and then increased with stand age. These findings demonstrated that soil quality declined initially following afforestation of agricultural lands in semi-arid regions, and then recovered with stand development. Following 15 years of afforestation, many soil quality parameters recovered to the values found in agricultural land. We propose that change in soil quality with stand age should be considered in determining optimum rotation length of plantations and best management practices for afforestation programs.