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1.
    
One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.  相似文献   

2.
    
Floodplain delineation may inform protection of wetland systems under local, state, or federal laws. Nationally available Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs, “100‐year floodplain” maps) focus on urban areas and higher‐order river systems, limiting utility at large scales. Few other national‐scale floodplain data are available. We acquired FIRMs for a large watershed and compared FIRMs to floodplain and integrated wetland area mapping methods based on (1) geospatial distance, (2) geomorphic setting, and (3) soil characteristics. We used observed flooding events (OFEs) with recurrence intervals of 25‐50 to >100 years to assess floodplain estimate accuracy. FIRMs accurately reflected floodplain areas based on OFEs and covered 32% of river length, whereas soil‐based mapping was not as accurate as FIRMs but characterized floodplain areas over approximately 65% of stream length. Geomorphic approaches included more areas than indicated by OFE, whereas geospatial approaches tended to cover less area. Overall, soil‐based methods have the highest utility in determining floodplains and their integrated wetland areas at large scales due to the use of nationally available data and flexibility for regional application. These findings will improve floodplain and integrated wetland system extent assessment for better management at local, state, and national scales.  相似文献   

3.
    
Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was evaluated as a method to operationally monitor the occurrence and distribution of storm‐ and tidal‐related flooding of spatially extensive coastal marshes within the north‐central Gulf of Mexico. Maps representing the occurrence of marsh surface inundation were created from available Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L‐Band SAR (PALSAR) (L‐band) (21 scenes with HH polarizations in Wide Beam [100 m]) data and Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) Advanced SAR (ASAR) (C‐band) data (24 scenes with VV and HH polarizations in Wide Swath [150 m]) during 2006‐2009 covering 500 km of the Louisiana coastal zone. Mapping was primarily based on a decrease in backscatter between reference and target scenes, and as an extension of previous studies, the flood inundation mapping performance was assessed by the degree of correspondence between inundation mapping and inland water levels. Both PALSAR‐ and ASAR‐based mapping at times were based on suboptimal reference scenes; however, ASAR performance seemed more sensitive to reference‐scene quality and other types of scene variability. Related to water depth, PALSAR and ASAR mapping accuracies tended to be lower when water depths were shallow and increased as water levels decreased below or increased above the ground surface, but this pattern was more pronounced with ASAR. Overall, PALSAR‐based inundation accuracies averaged 84% (n = 160), while ASAR‐based mapping accuracies averaged 62% (n = 245).  相似文献   

4.
    
Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT: There is a long standing hypothesis that overdevelopment has occurred in the nation's floodplains due to imperfect information about the potential flood hazard, an expectation of disaster relief and anticipation of future structural protection. This hypothesis is investigated with multiple regression analysis of data for a case study area. In particular the question of whether floodplain residential property values are fully discounted for expected flood damages is addressed by considering the impact of the National Flood Insurance Program on property values. The extent to which flooding risk perceptions are based on low cost information such as distance from and elevation above the river is also considered. Finally, implications for floodplain management policy are discussed.  相似文献   

6.
    
Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.  相似文献   

7.
    
Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.  相似文献   

8.
ABSTRACT: The accurate and reliable determination of floodplains, floodway boundaries, and flood water elevations are integral requirements of Flood Insurance Studies. These studies are intended to be used for determining the flood insurance rates. Therefore, the accuracy of the water surface profiles are important. To ensure the high degree of accuracy, the HUD Flood Insurance Administration has developed standards which must be met in the analysis of water surface profiles. A somewhat less accurate study is required for the preparation of Flood Emergency Plans. As part of the flood insurance studies of eight locations in the State of North Dakota, various flood hazard and floodplain information reports were reviewed. The hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, especially the computation of the 100-year water surface profiles, were completed using both simplified and complex hydraulic computation methods. Significant differences were found (1 to 3 feet) between the profiles computed by the SCS simplified method and those computed by HEC-2 computer program. However, the floodplain boundaries determined by both methods were found to be similar. Approximate methods are recommended for rapid determination of the floodplain, floodway boundaries, and inundation area mapping, while sophisticated computer programs (HEC-2) are recommended to be used for developing areas where the 100-year flood elevation has a significant impact on the cost of land development.  相似文献   

9.
    
Global warming and climate change have been identified as the most important challenges of the 21st century. Greenhouse Gases Observation Satellite (GOSAT) measures the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4) in the atmosphere column from the earth's surface to the upper atmosphere. In this research, GOSAT Thermal And Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO‐FTS) level 2 data and meteorological parameters were used in the assessment of changes in CO 2 concentration (XCO 2) from 2009 to 2015. We investigated the relationship between XCO 2 and meteorological parameters (temperature and precipitation) obtained from weather stations and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the year 2013 in Iran. The results reveal a steady increase in the mean atmospheric CO 2 concentration, from 384.89 to 400.39 ppm. It was observed that the XCO 2 varied significantly depending on the month, with the highest concentration of CO 2 in April/May and the lowest concentration in August/September. The correlation between XCO 2 and average monthly air temperature is negative, which means that a reduction in XCO 2 with an increase in temperature is dependent on photosynthetic activities in the growing seasons. The highest and lowest correlation coefficient between the NDVI and XCO 2 was obtained in the spring and in the fall, respectively. These findings are useful for recognizing factors that affect CO 2 concentration in different seasons in arid and semi‐arid regions, and as an initial step toward sustainable management.  相似文献   

10.
    
Accurate spatial representation of climatic patterns is often a challenge in modeling biophysical processes at the watershed scale, especially where the representation of a spatial gradient in rainfall is not sufficiently captured by the number of weather stations. The spatial rainfall generator (SRGEN) is developed as an extension of the “weather generator” (WXGEN), a component of the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. SRGEN generates spatially distributed daily rainfall using monthly weather statistics available at multiple locations in a watershed. The spatial rainfall generator as incorporated in APEX is tested on the Cowhouse watershed (1,178 km2) in central Texas. The watershed presented a significant spatial rainfall gradient of 2.9 mm/km in the lateral (north‐south) directions based on four rainfall gages. A comparative analysis between SRGEN and WXGEN indicates that SRGEN performs well (PBIAS = 2.40%). Good results were obtained from APEX for streamflow (NSE = 0.99, PBIAS = 8.34%) and NO3‐N and soluble P loads (PBIAS ≈ 6.00% for each, respectively). However, APEX underpredicted sediment yield and organic N and P loads (PBIAS: 24.75‐27.90%) with SRGEN, although its uncertainty in output was lower than WXGEN results (PBIAS: ?13.02 to ?46.13%). The overall improvement achieved in rainfall generation by SRGEN is demonstrated to be effective in the improving model performance on flow and water quality output.  相似文献   

11.
    
Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.  相似文献   

12.
    
Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.  相似文献   

13.
    
Several biofuel cropping scenarios were evaluated with an improved version of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as part of the CenUSA Bioenergy consortium for the Boone River Watershed (BRW), which drains about 2,370 km2 in north central Iowa. The adoption of corn stover removal, switchgrass, and/or Miscanthus biofuel cropping systems was simulated to assess the impact of cellulosic biofuel production on pollutant losses. The stover removal results indicate removal of 20 or 50% of corn stover in the BRW would have negligible effects on streamflow and relatively minor or negligible effects on sediment and nutrient losses, even on higher sloped cropland. Complete cropland conversion into switchgrass or Miscanthus, resulted in reductions of streamflow, sediment, nitrate, and other pollutants ranging between 23‐99%. The predicted nitrate reductions due to Miscanthus adoption were over two times greater compared to switchgrass, with the largest impacts occurring for tile‐drained cropland. Targeting of switchgrass or Miscanthus on cropland ≥2% slope or ≥7% slope revealed a disproportionate amount of sediment and sediment‐bound nutrient reductions could be obtained by protecting these relatively small areas of higher sloped cropland. Overall, the results indicate that all biofuel cropping systems could be effectively implemented in the BRW, with the most robust approach being corn stover removal adopted on tile‐drained cropland in combination with a perennial biofuel crop on higher sloped landscapes. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

14.
    
Various neural networks models are developed and applied for flood forecasting at Sangye station (no. 1) of the Bocheong Stream catchment, which is one of the International Hydrological Program's representative catchments, Republic of Korea. The neural networks models (NNMs) are multilayer perceptron‐neural networks model (MLP‐NNM), generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM), and Kohonen self‐organizing feature maps neural networks model (KSOFM‐NNM). Data used for model training and testing are divided into two groups: such as floods and typhoon events. Single conventional application and class segregation implementation are applied to evaluate the neural networks models. KSOFM‐NNM forecasts flood discharge more accurately than do MLP‐NNM and GRNNM for the testing data of Methods I and II for single conventional application and class segregation implementation. This study shows that class segregation can capture the dynamics of different physical processes and overcome the difficulties using single conventional application of neural networks models.  相似文献   

15.
    
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (Arnold et al., 1998) is a popular watershed management tool. Currently, the SWAT model, actively supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Texas A&M, operates only on Microsoft® Windows, which hinders modelers that use other operating systems (OS). This technical note introduces the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) distributed “SWATmodel” package which allows SWAT 2005 and 2012 to be widely distributed and run as a linear model‐like function on multiple OS and processor platforms. This allows researchers anywhere in the world using virtually any OS to run SWAT. In addition to simplifying the use of SWAT across computational platforms, the SWATmodel package allows SWAT modelers to utilize the analytical capabilities, statistical libraries, modeling tools, and programming flexibility inherent to R. The software allows watershed modelers to develop a simple hydrological watershed model conceptualization of the SWAT model and to obtain a first approximation of the minimum expected results a more complicated model should deliver. As a proof of concept, we test the SWAT model by initializing and calibrating 314 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and present the results.  相似文献   

16.
    
Tile drainage significantly alters flow and nutrient pathways and reliable simulation at this scale is needed for effective planning of nutrient reduction strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely utilized for prediction of flow and nutrient loads, but few applications have evaluated the model's ability to simulate pathway‐specific flow components or nitrate‐nitrogen (NO3‐N) concentrations in tile‐drained watersheds at the daily time step. The objectives of this study were to develop and calibrate SWAT models for small, tile‐drained watersheds, evaluate model performance for simulation of flow components and NO3‐N concentration at daily intervals, and evaluate simulated soil‐nitrogen dynamics. Model evaluation revealed that it is possible to meet accepted performance criteria for simulation of monthly total flow, subsurface flow (SSF), and NO3‐N loads while obtaining daily surface runoff (SURQ), SSF, and NO3‐N concentrations that are not satisfactory. This limits model utility for simulating best management practices (BMPs) and compliance with water quality standards. Although SWAT simulates the soil N‐cycle and most predicted fluxes were within ranges reported in agronomic studies, improvements to algorithms for soil‐N processes are needed. Variability in N fluxes is extreme and better parameterization and constraint, through use of more detailed agronomic data, would also improve NO3‐N simulation in SWAT. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

17.
    
Spatially comprehensive estimates of the physical characteristics of river segments over large areas are required in many large‐scale analyses of river systems and for the management of multiple basins. Remote sensing and modeling are often used to estimate river characteristics over large areas, but the uncertainties associated with these estimates and their dependence on the physical characteristics of the segments and their catchments are seldom quantified. Using test data with varying degrees of independence, we derived analytical models of the uncertainty associated with estimates of upstream catchment area (CA), segment slope, and mean annual discharge for all river segments of a digital representation of the hydrographic network of France. Although there were strong relationships between our test data and estimates at the scale of France, there were also large relative local uncertainties, which varied with the physical characteristics of the segments and their catchments. Discharge and CA were relatively uncertain where discharge was low and catchments were small. Discharge uncertainty also increased in catchments with large rainfall events and low minimum temperature. The uncertainty of segment slope was strongly related to segment length. Our uncertainty models were consistent across large regions of France, suggesting some degree of generality. Their analytical formulation should facilitate their use in large‐scale ecological studies and simulation models.  相似文献   

18.
Cruise, James F., Charles A. Laymon, and Osama Z. Al-Hamdan, 2010. Impact of 20 Years of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrology of Streams in the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1159–1170. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00483.x Abstract: Land-cover changes for portions of Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee were estimated for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 using classified Landsat images, and associated with hydrologic indices for 12 watersheds in the region. Rainfall-adjusted mean annual streamflow, an ET proxy (precipitation minus runoff), frequency of inundation above thresholds, and duration of inundation were used to characterize the hydrologic response of the test basins over the two-decade study period. Results indicate that several of the watersheds had undergone significant (>20%) reductions in agricultural land cover with a coincident increase in forested land. Attempts to correlate the hydrologic results with the land-cover changes were only partially successful. Watersheds with the largest land conversion from agriculture to forest (20% or more) did show significant trends in hydrologic indices indicating decreasing streamflow; however, other basins evidenced ambiguous results. The net conclusions of the study are that land-cover effects on hydrologic variables may be nuanced and can sometimes be only indirectly evident, and that a rigorous and detailed land-cover classification effort along with a battery of statistical tests with the same objective may be necessary to uncover these effects.  相似文献   

19.
The lack of uniform techniques for estimating design discharges in ungaged areas is a source of growing concern in the courts now faced with challenges to floodplain boundaries and culvert design for highway crossings. This paper summarizes a court case in which calculations of the design discharge and the hydraulic backwater effects of a major highway culvert were contested by the plaintiff. Emphasis in the paper is placed on the variation in computed flows and the interpretation of the court in the face of diverse hydrologic methods for the ungaged watershed. The results of a preliminary evaluation of ungaged watershed methods applicable to Pennsylvania are also reported in terms of standard error and bias.  相似文献   

20.
    
This study contributes a bathtub‐style inundation prediction model with abstractions of coastal processes (i.e., storm surge and wave runup) for flood forecasting at medium‐range (weekly to monthly) timescales along the coastline of large lakes. Uncertainty from multiple data sources are propagated through the model to establish probabilistic bounds of inundation, providing a conservative measure of risk. The model is developed in a case study of the New York Lake Ontario shoreline, which has experienced two record‐setting floods over the course of three years (2017–2019). Predictions are developed at a parcel‐level and are validated using inundation accounts from an online survey and flyover imagery taken during the recent flood events. Model predictions are compared against a baseline, deterministic model that accounts for the same processes but does not propagate forward data uncertainties. Results suggest that a probabilistic approach helps capture observed instances of inundation that would otherwise be missed by a deterministic inundation model. However, downward biases are still present in probabilistic predictions, especially for parcels impacted by wave runup. The goal of the tool is to provide community planners and property owners with a conservative, parcel‐level assessment of flood risk to help inform short‐term emergency response and better prepare for future flood events.  相似文献   

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