大连市近三十年大气环境变化及可持续发展对策

介绍了近三十年来大连市在经济快速发展 ,能源不断增加的情况下 ,空气质量得到明显改善 ,同时针对目前仍然存在的由能源结构不合理、机动车尾气、工业废气及二次扬尘等污染问题提出了发展循环经济、进行结构和布局调整、推进清洁生产、深化环境综合整治及加强立法执法和全民参与等可持续发展对策     

Regional analysis of global change impacts: Concepts, tools and first results

The paper introduces an approach for the analysis of global change impacts on river basins or regions. This approach is quite general and can be transferred to any region or river basin of interest on earth. The first application of the approach was in the Elbe river basin, with primary focus on the hydrologic model part and on the integration of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics. Finally, concepts for the integration of socio-economic aspects in the analysis are introduced.     

Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change

We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological response for a set of land use change scenarios by varying plant parameters within realistic uncertainty bounds in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that simulated hydrological fluxes significantly change after the introduction of outwintering suckler cow management, despite the presence of a significant amount of output uncertainty due to uncertainty in the plant parameterisation. The key to a proper uncertainty assessment was to consider the uncertainty in the difference between the scenarios instead of the absolute uncertainty of each single scenario. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis showed that changing soil properties in response to land use change does not result in significantly different results in the scenario analysis.     

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

统计方法在区域大气环境质量诊断分析中的应用

分析华北11城市(北京、石家庄、太原、天津、大同、唐山、保定、呼和浩特、济南、郑州和西安)近年的天气型演变和PM10日均值随时空变化情况,发现华北城市群存在区域性的同步污染特征,各城市的环境过程和环境质量受这种区域性的背景影响显著。11城市的污染资料主分量分析结果可以很好地描述华北地区的各类天气型控制下,华北城市群区域性的同步污染和输送汇聚环境过程,并可以依据主分量分析结果对各城市的环境质量做出客观上的评价。     

大气环境质量模糊评价的可视化实现

以模糊聚类法为算法基础,运用计算机可视化技术,进行大气环境质量评价初步探索。计算机技术在环境评价中的应用,可以方便数据处理和资源共享。选用武汉市大气环境监测资料,应用该方法评价和分析武汉市大气环境质量,取得了令人满意的结果。     

BP网络应用于大气颗粒物的源解析

应用BP网络对大气颗粒物进行源解析,将大气采集样本中的元素含量和大气颗粒物源成分谱构成训练样本集,用BP网络进行训练,由训练好的网络的权值可以计算出大气颗粒物的污染排放源的权重贡献率.将BP源解析法的计算结果与其它源解析法得到的结果比较,表明BP网络应用于大气颗粒物的源解析是可行的.     

Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change: A survey of approaches and findings

The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate.     

湖南省大气湿沉降化学研究

以湖南省1999～2001年的酸雨监测数据为基础,运用统计学和线性回归分析方法研究了位于中国中南部的重酸雨区湖南省的大气降水的酸度和化学组成的分布特征以及季节变化规律。结果表明,大气降水以SO_4~(2-)为主,占总离子量的31％,大气降水阴阳离子基本平衡。降水年平均pH值为4.86,以春季酸度最大,降水离子总量以冬季最大。研究结果同时表明,降水酸度是主要酸性离子和主要碱性离子共同作用的结果,而且([H~+]+[NH_4~+])/([SO_4~(2-)]+[NO_3~-])比值的变化能较好的反映降水过程中强酸离子的中和现象。     

省级尺度大气环境监测优化布点研究

以湖北省大气环境质量监测优化布点分析为例 ,对省级尺度的大气环境监测省控测点的选站原则、省控站位及数目的确定进行了研究探讨 ,提出了省级尺度大气环境监测优化布点的综合分析方法     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

Implications of Atmospheric Change for Biodiversity of Aquatic Ecosystems in Canada

Overall, the greatest threats to Canadian and global biodiversity are associated with conversions of natural ecosystems to anthropogenic ones, and over-exploitation of biological resources. This circumstance does not, however, trivialize the importance of atmospheric influences. Although scientific understanding of the risks is incomplete, it is nevertheless clear that anthropogenic changes in atmospheric stressors are potentially damaging to biodiversity and other ecological values over medium- and longer-term scales. It is important that greater investments be made in support of longer-term monitoring and research designed to understand the effects of atmospheric and other environmental stressors on the biodiversity and structure and function of Canadian ecosystems.     

遥感技术在大气环境监测中的应用综述

综合论述了近20多年来国内外对大气环境遥感监测的研究现状,介绍了应用于大气环境遥感监测的多种方法并着重阐述了被动式空基遥感和主动式地基遥感在大气环境遥感中的应用以及探测气溶胶的卫星传感器的发展历程和特点。最后,对我国大气环境遥感研究中存在问题和发展前景进行了讨论。     

Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea

The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interestin climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of globalwarming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and arenot being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda,since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, theKorea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea(Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming overNortheast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) has been measured for a similar KMA global warmingprogram at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiationhave also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. Theobservations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly meanconcentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulatematter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types interms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution.     

Increasing food production at the expense of tropical forests

An attempt is made to estimate to what extent it is possible to increase food production by conversion of forest land to agricultural land. To accomplish this two different approaches have been explored. The first one represents the possibility of developing a comprehensive model capable of taking into account the various processes influencing the food production. It is judged that this approach cannot provide a realistic result due to insufficient knowledge of the processes involved, and lack of reliable data. Instead a simple, heuristic method has been applied. The main sources of information used include data representing the soil of the deforested land, the decline of the productivity of the land gained, and the length of time it can be used for agricultural production. Although this method also has its obvious limitations, there are reasons to believe it permits certain conclusions can be safely drawn: (a) even if each year the area of agricultural land is increased by a given amount through removal of forest, there will be no gain of the agricultural production after a few years; and (b) to achieve a constant annual increase of the food production will require that each year the area of forest removal is increased. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

空气颗粒物中铅、镉超声浸取-原子吸收测定方法研究

用超声波震荡方法对大气滤膜样品进行前处理,提取待测元素。研究了浸取液种类、酸度、浸取时间和干扰因素等,确定了颗粒物样品溶液制备的最佳条件,与流动注射在线富集——原子吸收技术结合,建立了大气颗粒物样品测定Pb、Cd方法。结果表明,方法快速、准确,标准样品测定回收率在97％以上,6次测定方目对标准偏差小于2.6％。     

负压式水质采样器的研制及应用

概述了我国目前水质采样技术规范和水质采样器的现状 ;阐述了负压式水质采样器的结构组成、工作原理及采样方法。该采样器不需电源、携带方便 ,可有效地控制采样深度并实现分层采样。     

大气环境质量综合评价加权灰色关联模型的建立与应用

利用灰色理论建立大气环境质量综合评价加权灰色关联模型 ,运用污染贡献率确定权重系数。与其它评价模型相比 ,加权灰色关联模型还具有排序功能 ,实例表明该模型是简便有效的     

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.