Science, Policy, Stakeholders, and Fish Consumption Advisories: Developing a Fish Fact Sheet for the Savannah River

In recent years there has been a startling rise in the issuance of fish consumption advisories. Unfortunately, compliance by the public is often low. Low compliance can be due to a number of factors, including confusion over the meaning of advisories, conflicting advisories issued by different agencies, controversies involving health benefits versus the risks from consuming fish, and an unwillingness to act on the advisories because of personal beliefs. In some places, such as along the Savannah River, one state (South Carolina) had issued a consumption advisory while the other (Georgia) had not, although at present, both states now issue consumption advisories for the Savannah River. Herein we report on the development of a fish fact sheet to address the confusing and conflicting information available to the public about consuming fish from the Savannah River. The process involved interviewing fishers to ascertain fishing and consumption patterns, evaluating contaminant levels and exposure pathways, discussing common grounds for the provision of information, and consensus-building among different regulatory agencies (US Environmental Protection Agency, South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, Georgia Department of Natural Resources) and the Department of Energy. Consensus, a key ingredient in solving many different types of “commons” problems, was aided by an outside organization, the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP). The initial role for CRESP was to offer scientific data as a basis for groups with different assumptions about risks to reach agreement on a regulatory response action. The process was an example of how credible science can be used to implement management and policies and provide a basis for consensus-building on difficult risk communication issues. The paper provides several lessons for improving the risk process from stakeholder conflicts, through risk assessment, to risk management. It also suggests that consensus-building and risk communication are continuing processes that involve assimilation of new information on contaminants and food-chain processes, state and federal law, public policy, and public response.     

Consumption Advisories and Compliance: The Fishing Public and the Deamplification of Risk

Managers and regulators have recognized that the fishing public often ignores fish consumption advisories, and the reasons for non-compliance are explored in this paper. Risk assessors acknowledge that there is a social amplification (intensification) of risk where the public perceive a risk as much more severe than do the 'experts' or scientists, and this social amplification is a function of the interaction of hazards with social, psychological and cultural processes. I propose that non-compliance of consumption advisories occurs because of the deamplification of risk in hazards that are familiar and enjoyed, such as fishing and fish consumption. Although the public are generally aware of consumption advisories, they continue to believe the fish are safe to eat, and a high percentage eat the fish they catch. Unlike the amplification of risk, the deamplification of risk from fishing in the face of consumption advisories is partly legitimized by the actions of some governmental agencies, as well as by society at large. It is suggested that a variety of economic benefits and social institutions lead to a discounting of consumption advisories, and the delayed nature of adverse health effects allows for additional disregard. Further, it is suggested that co-management of the risk from contaminated fish would increase public involvement, and therefore compliance.     

Role of Wild Game in the Diet of Recreationists in South Carolina

Risk assessors have devoted considerable attention to the consumption of fish in the diet of recreational and subsistence anglers, but little attention has been directed toward the percentage that wild game contributes to total protein intake for people who engage in hunting and fishing. While recall studies have limitations, the relative errors should be similar for different types of fish and game. We interviewed 454 people attending the Palmetto Sportsmen's Classic in South Carolina to determine their consumption patterns of domesticated animals, fish (both wild-caught and commercial) and wild game. The percentage of people who consumed each type of meat was: chicken (98%); beef (95%); wild-caught fish (79%); deer (79%); restaurant fish (73%); pork (71%); dove (47%); commercial fish (41%); wild turkey (40%), duck, squirrel and self-caught quail (about 25% each); restaurant quail (10%); and raccoon (11%). Although a similar proportion of white respondents and black respondents consumed wild game overall (90%), there were ethnic differences in the number of meals of wild-caught fish and game. Black respondents ate more wild-caught fish, rabbit, raccoon and squirrel, and less deer, than did white respondents. Wild-caught fish and game made up 50% of the meat and fish diet of black sportsmen, but only 32% for whites. Wild-caught fish and game were being eaten disproportionately more by low-income black respondents, while more deer was consumed by higher-income black respondents. The data suggest that managers and planners should take into account age, ethnicity and income when (1) conducting exposure assessments, (2) considering consumption patterns for wild-caught fish and game and (3) managing risk from wild-caught fish and game. The data will be especially useful to policy makers and risk managers who are designing consumption advisories, for risk communicators in identifying the target audience and for managers designing long-term stewardship for sites with contamination.     

Environmental and human exposure assessment monitoring of communities near an abandoned mercury mine in the Philippines: a toxic legacy

Abandoned mines are an important global concern and continue to pose real or potential threats to human safety and health including environmental damage/s. Very few countries had government mine regulation and reclamation policies until the latter part of the century where legal, financial and technical procedures were required for existing mining operations. Major reasons for mine closure may be mainly due to poor economies of the commodity making mining unprofitable, technical difficulties and national security. If the mine is abandoned, more often than not it is the government that shoulders the burden of clean-up, monitoring and remediation. The topic of abandoned mines is complex because of the associated financial and legal liability implications. Abandoned mercury mines have been identified as one of the major concerns because of their significant long-term environmental problems. Primary mercury production is still ongoing in Spain, Kyrgzystan, China, Algeria, Russia and Slovakia while world production declined substantially in the late 1980s. In the Philippines, the mercury mine located southeast of Manila was in operation from 1955 to 1976, before ceasing operation because of the decline in world market price for the commodity. During this time, annual production of mercury was estimated to be about 140,000 kg of mercury yearly. Approximately 2,000,000 t of mine-waste calcines (retorted ore) were produced during mining and roughly 1,000,000 t of these calcines were dumped into nearby Honda Bay to construct a jetty to facilitate mine operations where about 2000 people reside in the nearby three barangays. In October, 1994 the Department of Health received a request from the Provincial Health Office for technical assistance relative to the investigation of increasing complaints of unusual symptoms (e.g. miscarriages, tooth loss, muscle weakness, paralysis, anemia, tremors, etc.) among residents of three barangays. Initial health reports revealed significant elevation of blood mercury levels exceeding the then recommended exposure level of 20ppb in 12 out of the 43 (27.9%) residents examined. The majority of the volunteers were former mine workers. In this study the abnormal findings included gingivitis, mercury lines, gum bleeding and pterydium. The most common neurologic complaints were numbness, weakness, tremors and incoordination. Anemia and elevated liver function tests were also seen in a majority of those examined. The assessment also revealed a probable association between blood mercury level and eosinophilia. The same association was also seen between high mercury levels and the presence of tremors and working in the mercury mine. To date, there are very limited environmental and health studies on the impact of both total and methylmercury that have been undertaken in the Philippines. Thus, this area of study was selected primarily because of its importance as an emerging issue in the country, especially regarding the combined effects of total and methylmercury low-dose and continuous uptake from environmental sources. At present the effects of total mercury exposure combined with MeHg consumption remain an important issue, especially those of low-dose and continuous uptake. Results of the study showed that four (4) species of fish, namely ibis, tabas, lapu-lapu and torsillo, had exceeded the recommended total mercury and methylmercury levels in fish (NV>0.5 microg/gf.w., NV>0.3 microg/gf.w., respectively). Saging and kanuping also exceeded the permissible levels for methylmercury. Total and methylmercury in canned fish, and total mercury in rice, ambient air and drinking water were within the recommended levels, however, additional mercury load from these sources may contribute to the over-all body burden of mercury among residents in the area. Surface water quality at the mining area, Honda Bay and during some monitoring periods at Palawan Bay exceeded total mercury standards (NV>0.002 ng/mL). Soil samples in two sites, namely Tagburos and Honda Bay, exceeded the EPA Region 9 Primary Remediation Goal recommended values for total mercury for residential purposes (NV>23 mg/kg). The hand to mouth activity among infants and children is another significant route for mercury exposure. Statistically significant results were obtained for infants when comparing the results after one year of monitoring for methylmercury levels in hair for both exposed and control sub-groups. Likewise, comparing the initial and final hair methylmercury levels among pregnant women/mothers in the exposed group showed statistically significant (p<0.05) results. Comparing the exposed and control sub-groups' mercury hair levels per sub-group showed statistically significant results among the following: (a) initial and final total mercury hair levels among children, (b) initial and final methylmercury hair levels among children, (c) final total mercury hair levels among pregnant women, (d) initial and final total mercury hair levels among mothers, and (e) initial and final methyl hair levels among mothers.     

Optimal Environmental Management Strategy and Implementation for Groundwater Contamination Prevention and Restoration

An innovative management strategy is proposed for optimized and integrated environmental management for regional or national groundwater contamination prevention and restoration allied with consideration of sustainable development. This management strategy accounts for availability of limited resources, human health and ecological risks from groundwater contamination, costs for groundwater protection measures, beneficial uses and values from groundwater protection, and sustainable development. Six different categories of costs are identified with regard to groundwater prevention and restoration. In addition, different environmental impacts from groundwater contamination including human health and ecological risks are individually taken into account. System optimization principles are implemented to accomplish decision-makings on the optimal resources allocations of the available resources or budgets to different existing contaminated sites and projected contamination sites for a maximal risk reduction. Established management constraints such as budget limitations under different categories of costs are satisfied at the optimal solution. A stepwise optimization process is proposed in which the first step is to select optimally a limited number of sites where remediation or prevention measures will be taken, from all the existing contaminated and projected contamination sites, based on a total regionally or nationally available budget in a certain time frame such as 10 years. Then, several optimization steps determined year-by-year optimal distributions of the available yearly budgets for those selected sites. A hypothetical case study is presented to demonstrate a practical implementation of the management strategy. Several issues pertaining to groundwater contamination exposure and risk assessments and remediation cost evaluations are briefly discussed for adequately understanding implementations of the management strategy.     

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model.A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.     

Regulatory requirements and tools for environmental assessment of hazardous wastes: Understanding tribal and stakeholder concerns using Department of Energy sites

Many US governmental and Tribal Nation agencies, as well as state and local entities, deal with hazardous wastes within regulatory frameworks that require specific environmental assessments. In this paper we use Department of Energy (DOE) sites as examples to examine the relationship between regulatory requirements and environmental assessments for hazardous waste sites and give special attention to how assessment tools differ. We consider federal laws associated with environmental protection include the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), as well as regulations promulgated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Tribal Nations and state agencies. These regulatory regimes require different types of environmental assessments and remedial investigations, dose assessments and contaminant pathways. The DOE case studies illustrate the following points: 1) there is often understandable confusion about what regulatory requirements apply to the site resources, and what environmental assessments are required by each, 2) the messages sent on site safety issued by different regulatory agencies are sometimes contradictory or confusing (e.g. Oak Ridge Reservation), 3) the regulatory frameworks being used to examine the same question can be different, leading to different conclusions (e.g. Brookhaven National Laboratory), 4) computer models used in support of groundwater models or risk assessments are not necessarily successful in convincing Native Americans and others that there is no possibility of risk from contaminants (e.g. Amchitka Island), 5) when given the opportunity to choose between relying on a screening risk assessments or waiting for a full site-specific analysis of contaminants in biota, the screening risk assessment option is rarely selected (e.g. Amchitka, Hanford Site), and finally, 6) there needs to be agreement on whether there has been adequate characterization to support the risk assessment (e.g. Hanford). The assessments need to be transparent and to accommodate different opinions about the relationship between characterizations and risk assessments. This paper illustrates how many of the problems at DOE sites, and potentially at other sites in the U.S. and elsewhere, derive from a lack of either understanding of, or consensus about, the regulatory process, including the timing and types of required characterizations and data in support of site characterizations and risk assessments.     

Regional differences in mercury levels in aquatic ecosystems: A discussion of possible causal factors with implications for the Tennessee river system and the Northern Hemisphere

Concern about mercury pollution from atmospheric deposition has risen markedly in the last decade because of high levels of mercury in freshwater fish from relatively pristine waters. Whereas high concentrations have been found principally in Canada, the northern United States, and Scandinavia, they have also recently been observed throughout much of Florida. Recent surveys of the Tennessee River system, however, have found no locations where fish levels exceed EPA guidelines for fish consumption. This paper evaluates a number of factors that may cause certain regions in the northern hemisphere to experience unacceptable fish mercury levels while other regions do not. Relevant regional differences include: (1) Waters of the Tennessee River system are generally nonacidic (pH>6) and well buffered, whereas 16%, 22%, and 40% of the lakes in upper Midwest, Northeast, and Florida, respectively, have acid-neutralizing capacities below 50 μeq/liter. Acidity correlates highly with fish mercury levels in a number of lake surveys, and experimental manipulations of acidity have significantly raised fish mercury levels. (2) The ratio of land area to water surface area in the Tennessee Valley averages about 30, whereas it is 15 in the upper Midwest and 6 in Florida. Low ratios allow mercury in precipitation to be directly deposited to aquatic bodies, without an opportunity for the mercury to be sequestered by terrestrial ecosystems. (3) Stream organic matter concentrations in Florida, the upper Midwest, and Sweden are 2–10 times those in the Tennessee Valley. Mercury binds strongly to organic matter, and organic matter transport in runoff is a major pathway by which mercury enters aquatic ecosystems.     

The evolving science of chemical risk assessment for land-applied biosolids

Biosolids, effluents, and manures are widely applied to agricultural land and other land with varying degrees of pretreatment or control. Regulations governing land application of biosolids take several broad forms in different countries, including limitations based on rates that do not lead to increases in background chemical concentrations or risk assessment approaches such as those used in the United States. Risk assessment is a process that is inherently limited by currently available information and practices, and consequently, risk-based land application limits must be reevaluated periodically. For complex mixtures such as biosolids, three principal categories of information will be affected by changing practices and scientific advances: (i) chemical constituents present in the material, (ii) the nature of expected exposures, and (iii) toxicity of the chemical constituents. New analytical methods and lower detection limits will affect chemical identification in wastes. Approaches to exposure assessment, such as increasing emphasis on probabilistic analyses, will continue to evolve, and exposure assumptions will change as new studies provide better data on factors such as soil ingestion, plant uptake of chemicals, and bioavailability of chemicals in soil. Similarly, toxicity assessments will be updated as new studies are conducted. The evolving science over the past decade is illustrated by comparing approaches used by the USEPA to assess human health and ecological risks for the Part 503 rule compared with the more recent evaluation of dioxins and related compounds in biosolids. While risks of chemicals in land-applied biosolids and other residuals need to be periodically re-evaluated, such re-evaluations may take forms other than full risk assessments.     

Identifying sources and assessing potential risk of heavy metals in soils from direct exposure to children in a mine-impacted city, Changsha, China

Heavy metal pollutants in soils can usually enter the human body and pose heath risks through a soil-crop-human body pathway (indirect exposure) or soil-human body pathway (direct exposure). Previous studies often neglected the direct exposure in human health risk assessment, especially for children. We collected surface soil samples from urban and suburb areas in Changsha City, China, to analyze the content ofAs, Cd, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. A combination of principal component analysis, geostatistics, and triangulated irregular network (TIN) model was successfully used to discriminate the sources of heavy metals. The direct exposure method, sequential indicator simulation, and geographical information system (GIS) technologies were used to perform a health risk assessment of heavy metal exposure to children living in the study area. Results show that heavy metal contamination in Changsha may originate from coal usage and industrial activities. One thousand equiprobable realizations suggest that not all sites within the study area may be suitable for housing or allotments without remediation. Most high hazard indexes are located in the suburb and mining areas. Moreover, arsenic presents a high health risk in comparison with other elements. Compared with inhalation and dermal contact in direct soil exposure, soil ingestion is the largest contribution to potential health risks for children. This study indicates that we should attach great importance to the direct soil exposure for children's health.     

Relative cancer risks of chemical contaminants in the great lakes

Anyone who drinks water or eats fish from the Great Lakes consumes potentially carcinogenic chemicals. In choosing how to respond to such pollution, it is important to put the risks these contaminants pose in perspective. Based on recent measurements of carcinogens in Great Lakes fish and water, calculations of lifetime risks of cancer indicate that consumers of sport fish face cancer risks from Great Lakes contaminants that are several orders of magnitude higher than the risks posed by drinking Great Lakes water. But drinking urban groundwater and breathing urban air may be as hazardous as frequent consumption of sport fish from the Great Lakes. Making such comparisons is difficult because of variation in types and quality of information available and in the methods for estimating risk. Much uncertainty pervades the risk assessment process in such areas as estimating carcinogenic potency and human exposure to contaminants. If risk assessment is to be made more useful, it is important to quantify this uncertainty.     

A Framework for Fully Integrating Environmental Assessment

A new framework for environmental assessment is needed because no existing framework explicitly includes all types of environmental assessments. We propose a framework that focuses on resolving environmental problems by integrating different types of assessments. Four general types of assessments are included: (1) condition assessments to detect chemical, physical, and biological impairments; (2) causal pathway assessments to determine causes and identify their sources; (3) predictive assessments to estimate environmental, economic, and societal risks, and benefits associated with different possible management actions; and (4) outcome assessments to evaluate the results of the decisions of an integrative assessment. The four types of assessments can be neatly arrayed in a two-by-two matrix based on the direction of analysis of causal relationships (rows) and whether the assessment identifies problems or solves them (columns). We suggest that all assessments have a common structure of planning, analysis, and synthesis, thus simplifying terminology and facilitating communication between types of assessments and environmental programs. The linkage between assessments is based on intermediate decisions that initiate another assessment or a final decision signaling the resolution of the problem. The framework is applied to three cases: management of a biologically impaired river, remediation of a contaminated site, and reregistration of a pesticide. We believe that this framework clarifies the relationships among the various types of assessment processes and their links to specific decisions.     

污染土壤修复效果评估方法研究综述简

综述了评估污染土壤修复效果的指标及方法,包括残留污染分析法、风险评估法、植物毒性法、动物毒性法、微生物毒性法、土壤酶水平法等典型的评估方法,分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用范围。其中,植物毒性法适用于再利用类型为工业、商业用地的场地;动物毒性法适用于再利用类型为居住用地的场地;土壤微生物法、土壤酶水平法适用于再利用类型为农业用地的场地;对于存在人体暴露途径的用地,应结合人体健康风险评估法进行风险评估,综合评定土壤修复的效果。最后对该领域今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

Risk management: Time for innovative approaches

Risk management practices under the current environmental regulations is a long, complex process that considers scientific, technologic, and management factors to develop various regulatory standards and pollution control measures. Using the mandatory enforcement approach, sometimes referred to as “command-and-control”, a set of preliminary environmental goals, such as better air and water qualities, were achieved. However, the information-intensive nature of the risk management process and the lack of flexibility in conventional regulatory methods to changing economic and technologic realities of the decade has created interest among risk managers to examine some innovative management approaches. Above all, environmental problems of a global scale require novel management methods while striving to achieve the desired environmental goals. As the principal analytical tool in risk management, quantitative risk assessment exerts considerable influence on the risk management process. Therefore, advances in risk management are closely associated with scientific developments that enhance the risk assessment process, particularly those efforts aimed at improving human exposure and toxicity assessments. Market incentives, information dissemination, creative enforcement practices, and interagency and intergovernmental interactions were identified as the key elements of innovative environmental risk management practices. This paper will present an overview of the emerging innovative risk management approaches.     

The development and application of a multilevel decision analysis model for the remediation of contaminated groundwater under uncertainty

A study was initiated which combined elements of stochastic hydrology, risk assessment, simulation modeling, cost analysis and decision making to define the optimum remediation choice(s) for a Superfund site in the southern United States. The effort focused upon the premise that groundwater remediation is inherently complex due to uncertainties in the geological matrix as well as in contaminant concentrations at points of compliance and/or exposure. The technical analyst should supply the decision maker with estimates of these uncertainties as well as the cost penalties required to reduce them to manageable levels. Monte Carlo transport modeling was employed to define the probability of contaminant excursions from the site, while geostatistical simulation identified a joint plume configuration and its attendant probability. Bayesian modeling was used to define the worth of additional data. These individual components were combined within a Decision Model to identify optimum remediation configurations for a given levels of risk tolerance which could be supplied by the decision maker or affected community. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to define ranges over which the decision would not be affected by variation in the respective decision parameter.     

Integrating Environmental Restoration and Ecological Restoration: Long-Term Stewardship at the Department of Energy

With the ending of the Cold War, several federal agencies are reclaiming land through remediation and restoration and are considering potential future land uses that are compatible with current uses and local needs. Some sites are sufficiently contaminated that it is likely that the responsible federal agency will retain control over the land for the foreseeable future, providing them with a stewardship mission. This is particularly true of some of the larger Department of Energy (DOE) facilities contaminated during the production of nuclear weapons. The use of the term “restoration” is explored in this paper because the word means different things to the public, ecologists, and environmental managers responsible for contaminated sites, such as Superfund sites and the DOE facilities. While environmental restoration usually refers to remediation and removal of hazardous wastes, ecological restoration refers to the broader process of repairing damaged ecosystems and enhancing their productivity and/or biodiversity. The goals of the two types of restoration can be melded by considering environmental restoration as a special case of ecological restoration, one that involves risk reduction from hazardous wastes, and by broadening environmental restoration to include a more extensive problem-formulation phase (both temporal and spatial), which includes the goal of reestablishing a functioning ecosystem after remediation. Further, evaluating options for the desired post remediation result will inform managers and policy-makers concerning the feasibility and efficacy of environmental restoration itself.     

Fish mercury increase in Lago Manso, a new hydroelectric reservoir in tropical Brazil

It has been frequently demonstrated that mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish rise in newly constructed hydroelectric reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere. In the present work, we studied whether similar effects take place also in a tropical upland reservoir during impoundment and discuss possible causes and implications. Total Hg concentrations in fish and several soil and water parameters were determined before and after flooding at Rio Manso hydroelectric power plant in western Brazil. The Hg concentrations in soil and sediment were within the background levels in the region (22-35 ng g(-1) dry weight). There was a strong positive correlation between Hg and carbon and sulphur in sediment. Predatory fish had total Hg concentrations ranging between 70 and 210 ng g(-1) f.w. 7 years before flooding and between 72 and 755 ng g(-1) f.w. during flooding, but increased to between 216 and 938 ng g(-1) f.w. in the piscivorous and carnivorous species Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, cachara, and Salminus brasiliensis, dourado, 3 years after flooding. At the same time, concentrations of organic carbon in the water increased and oxygen concentrations decreased, indicating increased decomposition and anoxia as contributing to the increased Hg concentrations in fish. The present fish Hg concentrations in commonly consumed piscivorous species are a threat to the health of the population dependent on fishing in the dam and downstream river for sustenance. Mercury exposure can be reduced by following fish consumption recommendations until fish Hg concentrations decrease to a safe level.     

Dealing With Uncertainty When Assessing Fish Passage Through Culvert Road Crossings

Assessing the passage of aquatic organisms through culvert road crossings has become increasingly common in efforts to restore stream habitat. Several federal and state agencies and local stakeholders have adopted assessment approaches based on literature-derived criteria for culvert impassability. However, criteria differ and are typically specific to larger-bodied fishes. In an analysis to prioritize culverts for remediation to benefit imperiled, small-bodied fishes in the Upper Coosa River system in the southeastern United States, we assessed the sensitivity of prioritization to the use of differing but plausible criteria for culvert impassability. Using measurements at 256 road crossings, we assessed culvert impassability using four alternative criteria sets represented in Bayesian belief networks. Two criteria sets scored culverts as either passable or impassable based on alternative thresholds of culvert characteristics (outlet elevation, baseflow water velocity). Two additional criteria sets incorporated uncertainty concerning ability of small-bodied fishes to pass through culverts and estimated a probability of culvert impassability. To prioritize culverts for remediation, we combined estimated culvert impassability with culvert position in the stream network relative to other barriers to compute prospective gain in connected stream habitat for the target fish species. Although four culverts ranked highly for remediation regardless of which criteria were used to assess impassability, other culverts differed widely in priority depending on criteria. Our results emphasize the value of explicitly incorporating uncertainty into criteria underlying remediation decisions. Comparing outcomes among alternative, plausible criteria may also help to identify research most needed to narrow management uncertainty.     

Decision making under uncertainty in case of soil remediation

Decisions on soil remediation are one of the most difficult management issues of municipal and state agencies. The assessment of contamination is uncertain, the costs of remediation are high, and the impacts on the environment are multiple. This paper presents a general, transparent, and consistent method for decision making among the remediation alternatives. Soil washing, phytoremediation, and no remediation are exemplarily considered. Multi-criteria utility functions including (a) the cost of remediation (b) the impact on human health and agricultural productivity, and (c) the economic gain after remediation are constructed using probability density functions representing contamination for all site coordinates. Herewith, the probability of different types of (i) correct decisions such as a hit or a true rejection and (ii) erroneous decisions such as a false alarm or miss are examined. The decision theoretic model is applied to a case study on heavy metal contaminated soil. This case study reveals the non-linear structure of multi-criteria-decision making. The case study shows that the geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal distributed soil contamination must be taken into account: When uncertainties are not considered and the utilities are assessed according to the estimated value for a spatial unit, only few (N=26) spatial units result where the utility score of the alternative soil washing are higher than the utility score to the no remediation alternative. However, when taking into account geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal soil distribution this number is about ten times greater (N=237). Furthermore, the use of 'maximizing expected utility' as decision rule is critical in that it may lead to a high probability of misses.