Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles’ nesting grounds

Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles’ terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world’s largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles’ reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.     

Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States1

Abstract: Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.     

Human visitation rates to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore and the introduction of the non-native species Lymantria dispar (L.)

The introduction of non-native species has accelerated due to increasing levels of global trade and travel, threatening the composition and function of ecosystems. Upon arrival and successful establishment, biological invaders begin to spread and often do so with considerable assistance from humans. Recreational areas can be especially prone to the problem of accidental non-native species transport given the number of visitors that arrive from geographically diverse areas. In this paper, we examine camping permit data to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore in northwestern Wisconsin, USA, from 1999 to 2007 relative to gypsy moth distribution, phenology and outbreak data. During this time, gypsy moth populations became established in this area ahead of the moving population front of the gypsy moth, suggesting anthropogenic introduction. The permit data revealed that the majority of visitors arrived from outside of the gypsy moth established area. However, there was a consistent yearly trend of visitors that arrived from areas of high gypsy moth populations and who arrived during the gypsy moth life stage (egg masses) most likely to be successfully introduced. Using available data on the gypsy moth and its relationship to camping permit data, we describe how recreational managers could optimize park strategies to mitigate unwanted introductions of the gypsy moth as well as develop analogous strategies for managing other biological invaders in recreational areas.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

Options for National Parks and Reserves for Adapting to Climate Change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.     

Do Non-Native Species Threaten The Natural Environment?

Conservation biologists and other environmentalists confront five obstacles in building support for regulatory policies that seek to exclude or remove introduced plants and other non-native species that threaten to harm natural areas or the natural environment. First, the concept of “harm to the natural environment” is nebulous and undefined. Second, ecologists cannot predict how introduced species will behave in natural ecosystems. If biologists cannot define “harm” or predict the behavior of introduced species, they must target all non-native species as potentially “harmful”. an impossibly large regulatory task. Third, loss of species richness may constitute harm to an environment, but introduced organisms typically, generally, and significantly add to species richness in ecosystems. If species richness correlates with desirable ecosystem properties, moreover, such as stability and productivity, as some ecologists believe, then introduced organisms, by increasing species richness, would support those desirable properties. Fourth, one may plausibly argue that extinction constitutes environmental harm, but there is no evidence that non-native species, especially plants, are significant causes of extinction, except for predators in certain lakes and other small island-like environments. Fifth, while aesthetic, ethical, and spiritual values may provide a legitimate basis for invasive species policy, biologists often cite concepts such as “biodiversity” and ecosystem “health” or “integrity” to provide a scientific justification. To assert that non-native species threaten biodiversity or undermine ecosystem health, however, may be to draw conceptual entailments or consequences from definitions of “biodiversity” and “integrity” that arbitrarily exclude non-native species or make the presence of exotic species a per se indicator of decline.     

Identifying Preservation and Restoration Priority Areas for Desert Fishes in an Increasingly Invaded World

A commonly overlooked aspect of conservation planning assessments is that wildlife managers are increasingly focused on habitats that contain non-native species. We examine this management challenge in the Gila River basin (150,730 km²), and present a new planning strategy for fish conservation. By applying a hierarchical prioritization algorithm to >850,000 fish records in 27,181 sub-watersheds we first identified high priority areas (PAs) termed “preservation PAs” with high native fish richness and low non-native richness; these represent traditional conservation targets. Second, we identified “restoration PAs” with high native fish richness that also contained high numbers of non-native species; these represent less traditional conservation targets. The top 10 % of preservation and restoration PAs contained common native species (e.g., Catostomus clarkii, desert sucker; Catostomus insignis, Sonora sucker) in addition to native species with limited distributions (i.e., Xyrauchen texanus, razorback sucker; Oncorhynchus gilae apache, Apache trout). The top preservation and restoration PAs overlapped by 42 %, indicating areas with high native fish richness range from minimally to highly invaded. Areas exclusively identified as restoration PAs also encompassed a greater percentage of native species ranges than would be expected by the random addition of an equivalent basin area. Restoration PAs identified an additional 19.0 and 26.6 % of the total ranges of two federally endangered species—Meda fulgida (spikedace) and Gila intermedia (Gila chub), respectively, compared to top preservation PAs alone—despite adding only 5.8 % of basin area. We contend that in addition to preservation PAs, restoration PAs are well suited for complementary management activities benefiting native fishes.     

A FRAMEWORK OF ORDERED CLIMATE EFFECTS ON WATER RESOURCES: A COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: An examination of the metadata for almost 900 bibliographic references on the effects of climate change and variability on U.S. water resources reveals strengths and weaknesses in our current knowledge. Considerable progress has been made in the modeling of climate change effects on first-order systems such as regional hydrology, but significant work remains to be done in understanding subsequent effects on the second-, third-, and fourth-order economic and social systems (e.g., agriculture, trade balance, and national economic development) that water affects. In order to remedy a recently-revealed lack of understanding about climate change on the part of the public, climate and water scientists should collaborate with social scientists in illuminating the effects of climate change and variability on the systems that affect how and where most people live.     

ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND THE CONSERVATION OF AQUATIC BIODWERSITY AND ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY1

ABSTRACT: Ecologically effective ecosystem management will require the development of a robust logic, rationale, and framework for addressing the inherent limitations of scientific understanding. It must incorporate a strategy for avoiding irreversible or large-scale environmental mistakes that arise from social and political forces that tend to promote fragmented, uncritical, short-sighted, inflexible, and overly optimistic assessments of resource status, management capabilities, and the consequences of decisions and policies. Aquatic resources are vulnerable to the effects of human activities catchment-wide, and many of the landscape changes humans routinely induce cause irreversible damage (e.g., some species introductions, extinctions of ecotypes and species) or give rise to cumulative, long-term, large-scale biological and cultural consequences (e.g., accelerated erosion and sedimentation, deforestation, toxic contamination of sediments). In aquatic ecosystems, biotic impoverishment and environmental disruption caused by past management and natural events profoundly constrain the ability of future management to maintain biodiversity and restore historical ecosystem functions and values. To provide for rational, adaptive progress in ecosystem management and to reduce the risk of irreversible and unanticipated consequences, managers and scientists must identify catchments and aquatic networks where ecological integrity has been least damaged by prior management, and jointly develop means to ensure their protection as reservoirs of natural biodiversity, keystones for regional restoration, management models, monitoring benchmarks, and resources for ecological research.     

Theory into Practice: Implementing Ecosystem Management Objectives in the USDA Forest Service

In the United States and around the world, scientists and practitioners have debated the definition and merits of ecosystem management as a new approach to natural resource management. While these debates continue, a growing number of organizations formally have adopted ecosystem management. However, adoption does not necessarily lead to successful implementation, and theories are not always put into practice. In this article, we examine how a leading natural resource agency, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, has translated ecosystem management theory into concrete policy objectives and how successfully these objectives are perceived to be implemented throughout the national forest system. Through document analysis, interviews, and survey responses from 345 Forest Service managers (district rangers, forest supervisors, and regional foresters), we find that the agency has incorporated numerous ecosystem management components into its objectives. Agency managers perceive that the greatest attainment of such objectives is related to collaborative stewardship and integration of scientific information, areas in which the organization has considerable prior experience. The objectives perceived to be least attained are adaptive management and integration of social and economic information, areas requiring substantial new resources and a knowledge base not traditionally emphasized by natural resource managers. Overall, success in implementing ecosystem management objectives is linked to committed forest managers.     

Misunderstanding the “Nature” of Co-Management: A Geography of Regulatory Science and Indigenous Knowledges (IK)

Governments, NGOs, and natural scientists have increased research and policy-making collaborations with Indigenous peoples for governing natural resources, including official co-management regimes. However, there is continuing dissatisfaction with such collaborations, and calls for better communication and mutual learning to create more “adaptive” co-management regimes. This, however, requires that both Western and Indigenous knowledge systems be equal participants in the “co-production” of regulatory data. In this article, I examine the power dynamics of one co-management regulatory regime, conducting a multi-sited ethnography of the practices of researching and managing one transnational migratory species, greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis), who nest where Koyukon Athabascans in Alaska, USA, practice subsistence. Analyzing the ethnographic data through the literatures of critical geography, science studies and Indigenous Studies, I describe how the practice of researching for co-management can produce conflict. “Scaling” the data for the co-management regime can marginalize Indigenous understandings of human–environment relations. While Enlightenment-based practices in wildlife biology avoid “anthropomorphism,” Indigenous Studies describes identities that operate through non-modern, deeply imbricated human–nonhuman identities that do not separate “nature” and “society” in making knowledge. Thus, misunderstanding the “nature” of their collaborations causes biologists and managers to measure and research the system in ways that erase how subsistence-based Indigenous groups already “manage” wildlife: by living through their ethical commitments to their fellow beings. At the end of the article, I discuss how managers might learn from these ontological and epistemological differences to better “co-produce” data for co-management.     

Control of Tamarix in the Western United States: Implications for Water Salvage, Wildlife Use, and Riparian Restoration

Non-native shrub species in the genus Tamarix (saltcedar, tamarisk) have colonized hundreds of thousands of hectares of floodplains, reservoir margins, and other wetlands in western North America. Many resource managers seek to reduce saltcedar abundance and control its spread to increase the flow of water in streams that might otherwise be lost to evapotranspiration, to restore native riparian (streamside) vegetation, and to improve wildlife habitat. However, increased water yield might not always occur and has been substantially lower than expected in water salvage experiments, the potential for successful revegetation is variable, and not all wildlife taxa clearly prefer native plant habitats over saltcedar. As a result, there is considerable debate surrounding saltcedar control efforts. We review the literature on saltcedar control, water use, wildlife use, and riparian restoration to provide resource managers, researchers, and policy-makers with a balanced summary of the state of the science. To best ensure that the desired outcomes of removal programs are met, scientists and resource managers should use existing information and methodologies to carefully select and prioritize sites for removal, apply the most appropriate and cost-effective control methods, and then rigorously monitor control efficacy, revegetation success, water yield changes, and wildlife use.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Eastern U.S. Hydrology: Responses to Global Climate Variability

Coastal ecosystems are dependent on terrestrial freshwater export which is affected by both climate trends and natural climate variability. However, the relative role of these factors is not clear. Here, both climate trends and internal climate variabilities at different time scales are related to variations in terrestrial freshwater export into the eastern United States (U.S.) coastal region. For the recent 35‐year period, the intensified hydro‐meteorological processes (annual precipitation or evapotranspiration) may explain the observed streamflow variability in the northeast. However, in the southeast, streamflow is positively correlated with climate variability induced by the Pacific Ocean conditions (El Nino‐Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than Atlantic Ocean conditions (Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The centroid location for volume of terrestrial freshwater export integrated along the eastern U.S. has a positive temporal trend and is negatively correlated with ENSO conditions, suggesting the northward trend in freshwater export to U.S. eastern coast may be disturbed by the natural climate variability, especially ENSO conditions, i.e., the center of freshwater mass moves southward (northward) during El Nino (La Nina) years. The results indicate the spatial and temporal variations in freshwater export from the eastern U.S. are affected by both climate change and inter‐annual climate variability during the recent 35‐year period (1980‐2014).     

Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge: An Example in Fisheries Science

Attempting to predict the spatial dynamics fish stocks, as required for management, is an ominous task given our incomplete understanding of biological and ecological mechanisms underpinning behavioral responses of fish. Large gaps still exist in our basic scientific knowledge. Nonetheless, the knowledge of fishers and fishery managers is not incorporated into our scientific analyses, even though such information is rich in observation since knowledge of fish behavior and distribution is a prerequisite for their profession. Combining such observations with more conventional scientific studies and theoretical interpretations provides a means by which we may bridge some gaps in our knowledge. Presented here is an example of how both local and scientific knowledge can be integrated in a heuristic model. The model, CLUPEX, is developed in the framework of a fuzzy logic expert system and uses linguistic statements written in natural language to capture and combine knowledge sources in the form of IF … THEN rules. The rules are inferred from interviews with experts and fishery professionals including fishers, fishery managers, scientists, and First Nations people. The knowledge base, comprised of the set of rules, is flexible in the sense that it can easily be modified to add additional information or change current information. Using input pertaining to biotic and abiotic environmental conditions, CLUPEX uses the rules to provide quantitative and qualitative predictions on the structure, dynamics and mesoscale distribution of shoals of migratory adult herring during different life stages of their annual life cycle.     

Assessing state-wide biodiversity in the Florida Gap analysis project

The Florida Gap (Fl-Gap) project provides an assessment of the degree to which native animal species and natural communities are or are not represented in existing conservation lands. Those species and communities not adequately represented in areas being managed for native species constitute 'gaps' in the existing network of conservation lands. The United States Geological Survey Gap Analysis Program is a national effort and so, eventually, all 50 states will have completed it. The objective of Fl-Gap was to provide broad geographic information on the status of terrestrial vertebrates, butterflies, skippers and ants and their respective habitats to address the loss of biological diversity. To model the distributions and potential habitat of all terrestrial species of mammals, breeding birds, reptiles, amphibians, butterflies, skippers and ants in Florida, natural land cover was mapped to the level of dominant or co-dominant plant species. Land cover was classified from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery and auxiliary data such as the national wetlands inventory (NWI), soils maps, aerial imagery, existing land use/land cover maps, and on-the-ground surveys. Wildlife distribution models were produced by identifying suitable habitat for each species within that species' range. Mammalian models also assessed a minimum critical area required for sustainability of the species' population. Wildlife species richness was summarized against land stewardship ranked by an area's mandates for conservation protection.     

Science-practice interactions linked to climate adaptation in two contexts: municipal planning and forestry in Sweden

This paper examines the science-practice interface in the process of adapting to climate change in society. This paper analyses science-based stakeholder dialogues with climate scientists, municipal officers and private individual forest owners in Sweden, and examines how local experts both share scientific knowledge and experience and integrate it into their work strategies and practices. The results demonstrate how local experts jointly conceptualise climate adaptation, how scientific knowledge is domesticated among local experts in dialogue with scientific experts, the emergence of anchoring devices, and the boundary-spanning functions that are at work in the respective sectors.     

Managing Protected Areas Under Climate Change: Challenges and Priorities

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the “traditional” conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.     

Toward Consensus-Based Actions that Balance Invasive Plant Management and Conservation of At-Risk Fauna

Limiting the spread of invasive plants has become a high priority among natural resource managers. Yet in some regions, invasive plants are providing important habitat components to native animals that are at risk of local or regional extirpation. In these situations, removing invasive plants may decrease short-term survival of the at-risk taxa. At the same time, there may be a reluctance to expand invaded habitats to benefit at-risk species because such actions may increase the distribution of invasive plants. Such a dilemma can result in “management paralysis,” where no action is taken either to reduce invasive plants or to expand habitats for at-risk species. A pragmatic solution to this dilemma may be to develop an approach that considers site-specific circumstances. We constructed a “discussion tree” as a means of initiating conversations among various stakeholders involved with managing habitats in the northeastern USA to benefit several at-risk taxa, including New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis). Major components of this approach include recognition that expanding some invaded habitats may be essential to prevent extirpation of at-risk species, and the effective control of invasive plants is dependent on knowledge of the status of invasives on managed lands and within the surrounding landscape. By acknowledging that management of invasive plants is a complex issue without a single solution, we may be successful in limiting their spread while still addressing critical habitat needs.     

WATER SHORTAGES,DEVELOPMENT, AND DROUGHT IN ROCKLAND COUNTY,NEW YORK1

Knowledge of the historical variability of regional climate is an essential element of successful water resource planning. Lacking such perspective, planners and managers can be deceived as to the severity of a recent climate extreme, such as drought, and place a disproportionate blame on the climate, not the integrity of the supply system should water restrictions become necessary to avoid shortages. Presented here is a vivid example of how development, a lack of adequate planning, and climate variability have converged to produce three water emergencies in Rockland County, New York, since 1995. An examination of climate data over the past century indicates that the severity of the recent droughts was well within the range of past variability. Rather than climate alone, the recent water emergencies have highlighted a significant mismatch between supply and demand that has been developing in Rockland County over the past three decades. Substantial development, largely in the form of single‐family homes, has not been matched with a corresponding enhancement of the county's water system. Realistic plans for meeting current water demand will require cooperation among all stakeholders, beginning with an acknowledgement that climate variations are inevitable, not the sole source of blame when water shortages arise.     

Typologizing Stakeholder Information Use to Better Understand the Impacts of Collaborative Climate Science

There is increasing interest among scholars in producing information that is useful and usable to land and natural resource managers in a changing climate. This interest has prompted transitions from scientist- to stakeholder-driven or collaborative approaches to climate science. A common indicator of successful collaboration is whether stakeholders use the information resulting from the projects in which they are engaged. However, detailed examples of how stakeholders use climate information are relatively scarce in the literature, leading to a challenge in understanding what researchers can and should expect and plan for in terms of stakeholder use of research findings. Drawing on theoretical, typological, and evaluation insights from the field of information use, we examine stakeholder use of climate information emerging from 13 collaborative climate science projects conducted in the western United States between 2012 and 2016. Three primary types of use emerge from our findings—conceptual, instrumental, and justification—reflecting common typologization of information use. Conceptual use was the most predominant. We suggest that researcher awareness of this typology can enable more systematic understanding of what project outputs stakeholders use and impacts of those outputs, giving way to new areas of inquiry and aiding in the conceptualization and design of climate information products for land and natural resource managers.