Scope effects of respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: evidence from motorized emission reductions in the city of Nairobi,Kenya

This study analyzed the scope effects of respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation (CV) by evaluating whether willingness to pay (WTP) estimates were sensitive to changes in the magnitudes of motorized emission reductions in the city of Nairobi, Kenya. The WTP estimates were elicited through the conventional payment card (PC), stochastic payment card (SPC) and the polychotomous payment card (PPC) formats. While SPC and PPC formats were used to capture respondent uncertainty, the PC format captured respondent certainty regarding the amounts individuals were WTP for emission reductions. Based on parametric and nonparametric analysis, results show that certain (PC) respondents stated significantly larger WTP amounts for larger emission reductions than for smaller reductions. Conversely, uncertain (SPC and PPC) respondents stated smaller amounts for larger emission reductions than certain (PC) respondents. The implication is that though respondents were sensitive to the scope of motorized emission reductions, respondent uncertainty lowered their sensitivity to scope.     

On the value of large predators in Sweden: a regional stratified contingent valuation analysis

This paper contributes with an applied policy analysis of the predator preservation policy in Sweden. We estimate the overall mean willingness to pay (WTP) for preserving the four large predators in the Swedish fauna by applying the contingent valuation method. Using survey data from 2004 we find that 50 percent of the Swedish population is willing to contribute financially toward implementation of the predator policy package, and that the estimated overall mean WTP is approximately SEK 290. Further, we test for spatial differences in attitudes and WTP and find that respondents in Stockholm have the highest overall mean WTP, while respondents living in wolf-territories have the lowest. Our mean WTP measure is flawed with upward bias, since we cannot estimate the willingness to accept for those with clearly negative preferences regarding the predator policy package (e.g. hunters). In this paper, we set their WTP equal to zero. Thus, we cannot rule out the possibility that the mean willingness to pay is, in fact, negative, i.e. the social-value of implementing the predator policy is negative. Finally, the estimates of the overall WTP are sensitive to response-uncertainty. When the respondents indicate uncertainty about their valuation, they tend to state higher values.     

Comparing contingent valuation and contingent ranking: a case study considering the benefits of urban river water quality improvements

This paper contrasts applications of both the contingent valuation (CV) and contingent ranking (CR) methods as applied to a common issue, the valuation of improvements to the water quality of an urban river (the River Tame, running through the city of Birmingham, UK). Building upon earlier experimental work, the CV design used ensures that respondents are fully aware of all impending valuation tasks prior to undertaking any one of those tasks. Such an approach is directly comparable to the CR design for which full awareness of all options is a pre-requisite. Findings indicate that the CV responses exhibit strong internal consistency with expected relationships observed between values and theoretically expected parameters. External comparisons show that CR valuations are substantially larger than those elicited through CV (with protest votes excluded), and that the response rate for the CR survey is significantly higher than that for the CV survey.     

Alternative approaches to flood mitigation: a case study of Bangladesh

Floods were by far the most damaging type of natural disasters during the 1990s, in terms of both human impacts and socio-economic losses. Vulnerability to flooding disasters around the world is almost always differentiated by the socio-economic conditions of different income groups in the disaster area. In general, the poorer the income group (or the country) the more vulnerable it is likely to be to the adverse impacts of floods. The article argues that Bangladesh is the world's most flood-prone developing country in terms of the relative socio-economic impacts of floods. While conventional flood control strategies tend to be based on structural engineering approaches—such as the construction of large-scale embankments, diversion canals and dams—this article argues that more emphasis should be given to alternative, non-structural measures. The main lesson from recent flooding disasters in Bangladesh is that, in the absence of expensive structural measures, many non-structural ones can go a long way towards reducing vulnerability to and mitigating the impacts of floods.     

Household-level preferences for mitigation of Prosopis juliflora invasion in the Afar region of Ethiopia: a contingent valuation

Prosopis juliflora, which is an alien tree species in Ethiopia, has invaded over 360,500 ha of land in the Afar region of the country and is threatening pastoral livelihoods. We conducted a contingent valuation study to assess rural households’ willingness to contribute in cash and labor to mitigate P. juliflora invasion in three districts of Afar. Results show that about 84% of the respondents prefer an intervention involving complete eradication of P. juliflora. The lower and upper bound median willingness to contribute to this intervention were 9.97 and 13.42 USD/household/year in cash and 30 and 43 days/household/year in labor. Off-farm income and P. juliflora invasion levels on pasturelands are among the factors affecting willingness to contribute to the mitigation of P. juliflora invasion. Incentives to local people and having a proper institutional setup that involves local culture and institutions are important for mobilizing people on a voluntary basis for mitigation of P. juliflora invasion.     

Mountain substitutability and peak load pricing of high alpine peaks as a management tool to reduce environmental damage: A contingent valuation study

High alpine peaks throughout the world are under increasing environmental pressure from hikers, trekkers, and climbers. Colorado's “Fourteeners”, peaks with summits above 14,000 feet are no exception. Most of these peaks have no entrance fees, and reach ecological and social carrying capacity on weekends. This paper illustrates how a series of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions can be used to evaluate substitutability between different alpine peaks and quantify the price responsiveness to an entrance fee. Using this approach, we find that peak load pricing would decrease use of popular Fourteeners in Colorado by 22%. This reduction is due almost entirely to substitution, rather than income effects. There is also price inelastic demand, as 60% of the hikers find no substitution for their specific Fourteener at the varying cost increases posed in the survey. The no substitute group has a mean net benefit of $294 per hiker, per trip, considerably higher than visitor net benefits in most recreational use studies.     

A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants

Prediction of construction cost of wastewater treatment facilities could be influential for the economic feasibility of various levels of water pollution control programs. However, construction cost estimation is difficult to precisely evaluate in an uncertain environment and measured quantities are always burdened with different types of cost structures. Therefore, an understanding of the previous development of wastewater treatment plants and of the related construction cost structures of those facilities becomes essential for dealing with an effective regional water pollution control program. But deviations between the observed values and the estimated values are supposed to be due to measurement errors only in the conventional regression models. The inherent uncertainties of the underlying cost structure, where the human estimation is influential, are rarely explored. This paper is designed to recast a well-known problem of construction cost estimation for both domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants via a comparative framework. Comparisons were made for three technologies of regression analyses, including the conventional least squares regression method, the fuzzy linear regression method, and the newly derived fuzzy goal regression method. The case study, incorporating a complete database with 48 domestic wastewater treatment plants and 29 industrial wastewater treatment plants being collected in Taiwan, implements such a cost estimation procedure in an uncertain environment. Given that the fuzzy structure in regression estimation may account for the inherent human complexity in cost estimation, the fuzzy goal regression method does exhibit more robust results in terms of some criteria. Moderate economy of scale exists in constructing both the domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants. Findings indicate that the optimal size of a domestic wastewater treatment plant is approximately equivalent to 15,000 m3/day (CMD) and higher in Taiwan. Yet the optimal size of an industrial wastewater treatment plant could fall in between 6000 CMD and 20,000 CMD.     

Alternative approaches to the construction of a composite indicator of agricultural sustainability: An application to irrigated agriculture in the Duero basin in Spain

This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indicators to measure the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The three methods employed were Principal Component Analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Multi-Criteria technique. The comparison focused on the irrigated agriculture of the Duero basin in Spain as a case study, using a dataset of indicators previously calculated for various farm types and policy scenarios. The results enabled us to establish a hierarchy of preferred policy scenarios on the basis of the level of sustainability achieved, and show that the most recent CAP reform is the most sustainable agricultural policy scenario. By analyzing the heterogeneity of different farms types in each scenario, we can also determine the main features of the most sustainable farms in each case. The analysis demonstrates that full-time farmers with small to medium-sized farms and sowing profitable crops are the most sustainable farm types in all the policy scenarios. All of this information is useful for the support of agricultural policy design and its implementation, as we attempt to improve the sustainability of this sector.     

Correcting for non-response bias in contingent valuation surveys concerning environmental non-market goods: an empirical investigation using an online panel

Data collection for economic valuation by using Internet surveys and pre-recruited Internet panels can be associated with severe disadvantages. Problems concerning sample coverage and sample representativeness can be expected. Representation errors may occur since people can choose whether to be part of an Internet panel and subsequently whether they wish to participate in the survey, thereby introducing two elements of potential self-selection. These elements may be correlated with preferences, thus making the respondents a non-random and non-representative sample, ultimately biasing results. This paper analyses a sample used for an Internet contingent valuation method survey eliciting preferences for improvements in water quality of a river. We find that some variables that affect the survey participation decision also affect willingness-to-pay, consequently biasing our welfare estimates. We show how adjusting willingness-to-pay for this bias can be accomplished by using a grouped data model incorporating a correlation parameter to account for selection.     

Interindustry approaches to the analysis of a supply disruption of a critical resource

Estimating the impact of a disruption of the supply of a critical resource to an economy involves two tasks: estimation of the distribution of the diminished supply among the direct users of the resource and estimation of the effects on the rest of the economy of the direct user's reduced production. Input-output (I-O) analysis is well suited to these tasks, particularly the second, because of the model's industrial detail and general equilibrium framework. Under the assumption of fixed coefficients, alternative variants of the I-O model are considered and a recommendation made. Further, it is suggested that the scope for varying the model's coefficients, because of the potential for input substitution, be investigated on a case by case basis.     

A practical methodology for information fusion in presence of uncertainty: application to the analysis of a nuclear benchmark

This work is devoted to some methodological developments on information fusion in presence of uncertainty and their application in the frame of the BEMUSE Programme. In nuclear safety studies, different uncertainty analyses using different codes and implying different experts are generally performed. It is then useful to define formal methods to combine all these information sources in order to improve the reliability of the expertise process and especially to detect possible conflicts (if any) between the sources. Starting from the IRSN methodology already introduced in Destercke and Chojnacki (Nucl Eng Des 238(9):2484–2493, 2008), this paper presents a more convenient reformulation of its construction to allow its use by engineers. It is then applied to analyse the results coming from the BEMUSE Programme.     

Valuing damage to historic buildings using a contingent market: a case study of road traffic externalities

Pricing of road transport at social marginal cost should make users aware of the cost of damaging the environment (external costs). Such an approach, however, requires a monetary estimate of this damage which can be difficult to derive. On the basis of a study carried out at Neuchâtel (Switzerland), the contingent valuation method was used to estimate the damage caused to buildings of historical and cultural value by traffic‐caused air pollution. In a survey, individuals were asked to contribute to a fund set up to finance the maintenance of pre‐selected historic buildings. A valuation function to predict willingness‐to‐pay responses is estimated.     

Securing water for wetland conservation: a comparative analysis of policy options to protect a national nature reserve in China

This study evaluates four policy options to secure the water supply needed for wetland conservation in Qixinghe--a national wetland nature reserve in China--using four criteria: cost effectiveness, probability of success in achieving the water-saving goal, political feasibility, and farmer acceptance. This multi-criteria analysis framework reveals the ecological, economic, and socio-political trade-offs for policymakers when choosing among the four policy options. Results suggest that upgrading irrigation infrastructure in the area surrounding the wetland (Option I) is the most politically feasible option, but it is the second best option in terms of cost effectiveness. Constructing a dam to store and control floodwater (Option II) is the most reliable for achieving the water-saving goal. It is also the farmers' most favored strategy. But this option is the least cost effective and receives little support from local governments. Promoting farmers' adoption of water-saving practices (Option III) is the most cost effective, but it is less reliable for achieving the water-saving goal than Options I or II. Converting paddy crops to dry-land crops (Option IV) is politically infeasible and least reliable for achieving the water-saving goal. The overall ranking of the four options is determined using the policymakers' revealed weights on the four criteria. Option I is ranked first, followed by Options II, III, and IV.     

Handling uncertainty through adaptiveness in planning approaches: comparing adaptive delta management and the water diplomacy framework

Planners and water managers seek to be adaptive to handle uncertainty through the use of planning approaches. In this paper, we study what type of adaptiveness is proposed and how this may be operationalized in planning approaches to adequately handle different uncertainties. We took a comparative case study approach to study two planning approaches: the water diplomacy framework (WDF) and adaptive delta management (ADM). We found that the approaches differ in their conceptualization of uncertainty and show that different types of adaptiveness are used in the approaches. While WDF builds on collaborative adaptive management as a set of ongoing adjustments and continuous learning to handle uncertainty, ADM deliberately attempts to anticipate future adaptations through a set of tools which allows for seizing opportunities and avoiding lock-in and lock-out mechanisms. We conclude that neither of the approaches is fully able to account for different uncertainties. Both approaches may benefit from specific insights in what uncertainty and adaptiveness entail for the development of water management plans.     

Taking Sustainable Cities Seriously: a comparative analysis of twenty-four US cities

After briefly reviewing some conceptual underpinnings of sustainable cities, this paper analyses and compares sustainable cities initiatives in 24 US cities. The central question addressed in the paper is why some cities seem to take sustainability more seriously than others. Numerous demographic, socioeconomic and other characteristics of the cities are correlated with an Index of Taking Sustainability Seriously, which is a composite of some 34 different variables indicating whether each city engages in specific sustainability programmes, policies or activities. Many of the standard explanations, such as the income and wealth of the community, the liberalness of the city and the growth pressures placed on the city, are found to exhibit no correlation with the seriousness of the sustainability effort. What do correlate with the Index are: reliance on manufacturing, where having more residents employed in manufacturing industries is associated with less seriousness; and, the age of the population, where cities with older populations take sustainability more seriously. This has three implications for the future development of sustainable cities. First, some of the cities that might be said to need sustainability programmes the most--cities with heavy manufacturing that are more prone to pollution production--are the least likely to take such programmes seriously. Secondly, as cities' manufacturing bases decline, they should find it increasingly feasible to engage in sustainability initiatives. And, thirdly, as the populations of cities age, policy-makers should also find it easier to support, develop and take seriously sustainability programmes.     

Social influences on expressed willingness to pay: results of a deliberative monetary valuation study in Colombia

Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV) methods can support environmental decision making by enabling the exchange of arguments and information to produce more democratic outcomes. The product of a valuation may be an array of expressions of willingness to pay (WTP) by individuals or a collectively agreed monetary value. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether this product is an outcome of thoughtful and independent decision-making or influenced by social pressures to conform. Our study examines this issue and addresses concerns about the use of DMV, based on a public deliberation of forest conservation in Colombia. We analyzed the impacts of social conformity on WTP under two different decision scenarios: individual and collective. The results suggest that the impacts of social conformity are greater when a collective decision is required. These findings indicate that tensions between the differing goals of DMV could undermine its democratic promise.     

Economic valuation as a tool to support decision-making in strategic green infrastructure planning

Decision-making in spatial planning is often based only on administrative regulations and procedures. This approach does not guarantee an efficient allocation of scarce financial resources. Consequently, the present paper discusses the practical relevance of an approach to incorporate results of economic valuation into strategic spatial planning for the example of green infrastructure. For this, a contingent valuation was conducted at a reference site in Esslingen, Germany. Here, participants of the survey stated their willingness to pay for different green infrastructure investment categories. Build on the survey results, the possible future foci of regional green infrastructure planning are derived and impacts on regional green infrastructure policy for the case of the Neckar region are investigated.     

Dealing with uncertainty: a case study of controlling insect populations in natural ecosystems

This paper analyses the political process for handling an outbreak of an insect causing human allergic reactions. In the southern part of the Swedish island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, an outbreak of the northern pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pinivora, has occurred. With regard to the human nuisance and long-term effects on the tourist industry, demands have been raised for intervention to reduce and control the insect population. At the same time, there have been warnings against treating the insect population because there are knowledge gaps concerning the wider ecological consequences, including effects on biodiversity. This paper analyses the political process and its problem-solving efforts. Of particular interest is how it dealt with the issue of uncertainty. It was found that the uncertainty associated with the issue hindered the development of a shared understanding of the problem and a possible solution. There seems to be a growing need in society to develop the institutional capacity to handle complex issues that cross different sectors, regulatory frameworks and policy targets.