基于本质安全的化学工艺风险评价方法研究

基于本质安全原理对化学工艺进行风险评价,以易燃性、易爆性、毒性、腐蚀性、反应热、化学活性、工艺温度、工艺压力和存储量9个指标,建立化学工艺的本质安全评价指标体系。采用基于遗传算法的Shepard插值算法对本质安全进行评价,以甲基丙烯酸甲酯的合成工艺路线为例进行分析,结果表明该方法适用于化学工艺本质安全评价,相对传统方法更加科学,能够有效对危险工艺进行选择,为政府监管部门和化工企业提供工艺选择决策技术。     

基于集对分析的化工工艺本质安全性评价方法

为了提高化工工艺本质安全性评价的有效性和全面性,根据集对分析理论建立了四元联系数评价模型。模型选用传统的本质安全指标及其分级标准,对各指标进行赋权,以甲基丙烯酸甲酯合成工艺路线为例进行实用性验证,最终确定了多条工艺路线的本质安全程度优劣顺序,并明确各自的本质安全程度。结果表明,集对分析方法能够客观全面地评价化工工艺路线的本质安全性,可以用于化工工艺路线的优选过程,为工艺安全管理和技术改进提供指导。     

基于模糊综合评价的化工工艺本质安全指数研究

建立化工工艺的本质安全评价指标体系,包括可燃性、爆炸性、毒性、反应性、温度、压力、储量等7个指标。为解决前人指数法中的边界波动效应,采用模糊综合评价建立化工工艺本质安全评价指数模型,确定各指标的权重、危险分级及对各分级的隶属函数。以甲基丙烯酸甲酯的5条工艺路线为例进行分析,结论与前人提出的指数方法的评价结果相吻合,表明该指数方法可以用来进行化工工艺的本质安全评价,以指导设计初期的本质安全型工艺路线选择。     

Chemical process route selection based upon the potential toxic impact on the aquatic,terrestrial and atmospheric environments

This paper proposes a method to estimate the inherent environmental friendliness of a chemical process plant by considering the potential toxicity impact on the aquatic, terrestrial and atmospheric environments. A worst-case scenario of a total loss of containment in the plant is assumed. The method proposed by [Gunasekera, M.Y., Edwards, D.W. (2003). Estimating the environmental impact of catastrophic chemical releases to the atomosphere: an index method for ranking alternative chemical process routes. Trans. IChemE., Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 81(B6), 463–474] for determining the inherent atmospheric environmental friendliness of a chemical plant is combined with the method proposed by [Cave, S.R., Edwards, D.W. (1997). Chemical process route selection based on assessment of inherent environmental hazard. Computers Chem. Engng., 21, S965–S970], which estimates the inherent friendliness to the aquatic and terrestrial environments.Application of this method to six routes to produce methyl methacrylate shows that the acetone cyanohydrin based route is potentially the least inherently environmentally friendly. The highest potential hazard is observed in the aquatic environment due to the chemicals associated with the acetone cyanohydrin route.     

Simple graphical method for inherent occupational health assessment

The concept of inherently safer design was introduced to design a fundamentally safer process so that hazards can be avoided or minimized rather than controlled or managed. The ideology has later been extended to the environmental, but not health criteria due to its complicated underlying principles. Even though health risk methods are already established, majority are for existing plants assessment. Early consideration of health aspect starting from process design stage however, has received much less attention. This paper introduces a simple graphical method to evaluate the inherent occupational health hazards of chemical processes during the R&D stage. A survey was conducted to identify the important health parameters for the graphical method development, involving nine world inherent safety and health experts. Based on their input, process mode, material volatility, operating pressure and chemical health hazard (toxicity and adverse effect) are the significant factors affecting inherent health hazards of chemical processes. The choice of parameters was bounded by the information availability at this stage. The method was applied on six routes to methyl methacrylate and ten routes to acetic acid. The parameters were plotted for each subprocess of the alternative routes. The ‘healthiest’ route was selected based on thorough hazards assessment across all the subprocesses. The first case study reveals the tertiary butyl alcohol as the ‘healthiest’ one as it poses relatively lower, or at least comparable hazards to the other routes due to exposure and health impacts. Meanwhile the acetic acid case study indicates ethanol oxide and ethyl oxide based routes as the inherently healthier as they operate at lower operating pressure besides posing comparable hazards level for the other three parameters, compared to the other routes. The case studies show that the inherent occupational health of a chemical process can already be evaluated easily in the R&D stage with the simple graphical method proposed.     

Computer-aided assessment of occupationally healthier processes during research and development stage

Each year more people die from occupational related diseases than are killed in industrial accidents. Therefore it is critical to start considering health aspect early when developing a new chemical process. In this paper, a computer-aided tool for assessing inherent occupational health is proposed for chemical process research and development stage. The method was developed based on the reaction chemistry data, which is the only data available at this stage. Three types of approaches were formulated to calculate the route index value using additive type, average type and worst case type calculations. The tool can be used to rank the alternative chemical synthesis routes by their health properties as well as characterize the hazard level of single process. Finally the tool was applied to six process routes for methyl methacrylate production for demonstration. The case study revealed hazards of the processes from different perspectives, e.g. the results from the additive-type calculation were mainly affected by the total number of steps in the route, which indicates the impact of process complexity on the level of hazard. The introduction of such tool provides a swift yet reliable means that will encourage health criteria to be considered earlier in process development besides economic, safety and environment.     

Inherent occupational health assessment during process research and development stage

Occupational health studies the interaction of work and health, especially the long-term effect of chemicals to health. In this paper an Inherent Occupational Health Index has been developed for assessing the health risks of process routes during process research and development stage. The method takes into account both the hazard from the chemicals present and the potential for the exposure of workers to the chemicals. The index can be used either for determining the level of inherent occupational health hazards or comparing alternative process routes for these risks. The method is tailored for the process research and development stage by including only such properties of chemicals and operating conditions of process, which are available already in this early stage. In the end of this paper the approach is demonstrated by comparing the inherent occupational healthiness of six methyl methacrylate process routes using three different types of index calculations; additive-type, average-type, and worst case-type. The study discloses that the average- and worst case-based approaches analyze the characteristics of a route better than the additive calculation, which is greatly affected by the number of steps in the route. A quantitative standard scale for the index is also developed to allow health level assessment of a single process.     

Evaluation of EHS hazard and sustainability metrics during early process design stages using principal component analysis

A principal component analysis (PCA) based methodology accounting for EHS hazard and sustainability metrics has been recently proposed in literature (Srinivasan and Nhan, 2008) to deal with the subjective weighting problem of existing index-based methods. In this study we evaluate the potential use of the PCA-based method during early phases of process design in the problem of selection between various synthesis paths, also called chemical routes, for the production of chemical compounds. The study also focuses on the impact of the methodology settings on the obtained chemical route rankings and their interpretation. Two case studies have been performed regarding the production of 4-(2-methoxyethyl)-phenol (MEP) and methyl methacrylate (MMA) using fifteen different evaluation categories capturing various sustainability metrics. The PCA-based method identified the most promising chemical routes as well as the most important evaluation categories. The necessity for normalization of the raw data was demonstrated, without the method being very sensitive to the type of normalization. Moreover, the effect of the transition approach from chemical step to chemical route scores is discussed. The results of the PCA-based method are also compared with an index-based method (Koller et al., 2000) sharing the same evaluation categories, as well as with other index-based frameworks in order to reveal the extent of similarities.     

BP神经网络在航空机务人员本质安全程度评价中的应用

航空机务是飞机安全服役的重要保障,为提高航空机务系统的本质安全性,需要对航空机务人员的本质安全程度进行准确评价。在对本质安全人进行定义并明确航空机务人员本质安全程度评价项目后,构建了一种基于MATLAB的用于本质安全程度评价的BP神经网络模型。实例分析中,以某航空公司10位机务人员的专家打分数据作为样本输入,在对输入数据进行标准化处理,并明确期望输出后,通过编程计算,确定了网络隐含层神经元的最佳数目。采用优化结构进行仿真计算,结果表明BP网络的期望输出值和实际仿真输出值能较好吻合,证实了模型的可信性。基于BP网络的航空机务人员本质安全程度评价具有较好的适用性和可行性。     

Using process stream index (PSI) to assess inherent safety level during preliminary design stage

In the current practice, safety assessment is conducted once the process design has been completed. At this stage of design, the freedom to change the conceptual design is very limited and whatever strategies to be implemented will only control the hazard. This paper reports on the development of inherent safety index known as a process stream index (PSI) for inherent safety level assessment at preliminary design stage from the perspective of an explosion. The aim for PSI is to calculate, compare and prioritize the level of inherent safety of process streams during simulation work that influences the explosion. By prioritizing the streams based on the potential for the explosion, the design engineers can easily identify the critical streams to be considered for improvement in order to avoid or minimize explosion hazards. An enhancement technique to reflect the contribution of the individual components in the mixture is introduced, which provide significant contribution to the ranking of inherent safety level of process streams. The assessment of inherent safety level using PSI is demonstrated by case studies of HYSYS simulation for Acrylic Acid Plant and Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) plant.     

Inherent occupational health assessment during preliminary design stage

Chemical process routes can already be assessed as early as in the development and design phases. Process screening should not look at economic and technical aspects only, but also the safety, health, and environmental performances. In this paper, a method called the Health Quotient Index (HQI) is presented for the preliminary process design phase. The HQI provides a simple approach to quantify workers' health risk from exposure to fugitive emissions e.g. in petrochemical plants. The method utilizes process data from flow sheet diagram, which is already available at the preliminary design stage. Since the mechanical details of the process are still unknown, a database of the precalculated fugitive emissions for typical operations in chemical plants was created to simplify the assessment. The HQI can be used to rank alternative process concepts or to quantify the risk level of processes. As a case study, six process routes for producing methyl methacrylate are discussed. Three health indexes are compared in the case study. The HQI is able to highlight the difference of hazard levels between the routes better as a result of more detailed assessment of the exposures.     

基于G1法与熵权法的社区居民安全素养评价模型

为提高居民自身的安全素养,本文首先采用文献研究的方法,基于WSR理论初步建立社区居民安全素养评价指标体系;然后通过专家访谈采用G1法确定指标主观权重,通过调研问卷采用熵权法确定指标客观权重,之后使用方差最大化方法确定主客观组合权重,进而建立起居民安全素养综合评价指标模型,并获得各指标重要性排序;最后使用所建立的评价模型对某一老旧小区进行案例应用,获得该老旧社区居民安全素养评分为0.71,居民安全素养等级为中等。结果表明,本文所建立的指标体系可用于社区居民安全素养的评价,为社区进一步提升居民安全能力提供参考。     

一种基于层次分析法的危险化学品源安全评价综合模型

危险化学品源的安全评价是安全生产管理中的一项重要内容.目前用于危险化学品源安全评价与分级的常用方法有后果分析法、道指数法、蒙德指数法以及使用临界系数判别重大危险源的方法等.在实际应用中,单独使用某一方法时,由于存在各种片面性问题而得不到满意的评价结果; 几种方法同时使用时,其评价指标、评价结果以及结果的形式又会互相冲突.为解决上述问题,建立了基于层次分析法的综合评价模型.首先,根据安全评价要求构建3层次的评价体系,在各层次中构造判断矩阵,并计算4种常用方法相对综合评价模型的置信度; 其次,对各方法统一危险分级标准,均采用危险分数划定危险级别,并取各危险分数的加权平均值--综合危险分数作为综合评价模型下的危险源分级标准.采用综合评价模型可消除单一方法进行评价时的片面性和偏差,同时,评价结果的一致化使得判断危险化学品源的危险级别以及由此采取相应级别的管理措施成为可能,将更有利于实际安全生产管理指导.     

矿井通风系统安全评价方法及发展趋势

对国内矿井通风系统安全评价技术常用的模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、灰色关联度分析法、未确知测度评价法、人工神经网络评价法等进行分析和比较,给出了各种方法的数学原理和评价程序与步骤.然后,介绍多种评价方法相结合的复合评价模型及其应用.最后,分析和探讨了评价方法及其应用中存在评价指标与权重标准不统一、多种评价方法对同一资料的评价结果存在差异、缺乏评价支持软件系统等方面的问题;指出安全评价应引入非线性科学等交叉学科理论和开展基于方法集的综合集成评价研究;建立科学合理的评价指标体系和综合集成评价的决策支持系统,形成"人-机-环境-评价对象"一体化评价模式.     

I2SI: A comprehensive quantitative tool for inherent safety and cost evaluation

This paper presents details of an integrated inherent safety index (I2SI). The conceptual framework of this index was presented at the 37th Annual Loss Prevention Symposium of the AIChE (2003) and published in Process Safety Progress (volume 23(2), 136–148, 2004). In addition to the framework, the current paper discusses additional features of the index such as the cost model and system design model, which were not presented or discussed earlier. I2SI is called an integrated index because the procedure considers the life cycle of the process with economic evaluation and hazard potential identification for each option. I2SI is comprised of sub-indices which account for hazard potential, inherent safety potential, and add-on control requirements. In addition to evaluating these respective characteristics, there are also indices that measure the economic potential of the option. To demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of I2SI, an application of the index to three acrylic acid production options is also discussed in the paper.     

Implementing inherent safety throughout process lifecycle

Inherent safety should be implemented as early as possible in the design life cycle, since the changes in process design are easier and cheaper the earlier they are done. The problem is, how to evaluate process alternatives in the terms of inherent safety in the early design phases, when much of the information is missing. In this paper the process life cycle phases and the possibilities of implementing and evaluating inherent safety are discussed. The applicability and accuracy of an inherent safety index method is presented by a case study.     

Quantification of inherent safety aspects of the Dow indices

The Dow fire and explosion index (F&EI) and chemical exposure index (CEI) have been successfully implemented in a Visual Basic environment as a tool for the inherent safety assessment of chemical processes. Subprograms were developed to quantify the inherent safety aspects of the Dow indices. These aspects are presented graphically with the indices on the vertical axis and an inherent safety indicator on the horizontal axis. Dow indices of the MIC storage unit involved in the Bhopal disaster were evaluated to quantify the effects of process temperature, pressure and inventory of hazardous materials on the index values.

As operating pressure was reduced, the F&EI decreased in accordance with the principles of inherent safety. The change in F&EI due to reduction of inventory was more significant than that resulting from pressure reduction. The results show that the F&EI change, given the same range of the independent variables (quantity of hazardous materials, operating temperature and pressure), is larger when a unit in the process area is evaluated compared to a unit in a storage area (tank farm). Reduction of the inventory of hazardous materials had no direct effect on the CEI for vapor releases, whereas the size of the hole diameter impacted the CEI to a great extent. However, there is a significant change in the CEI as the inventory of materials decreases for liquid releases involving temperatures above their flash and boiling points. Pressure reduction decreases the CEI, whereas temperature reduction leads to an increase in the CEI when these parameters are treated independently.     

基于因素重构分析法和主成分分析法的企业安全文化评价模型

针对当前安全文化评价领域存在的评价方法相对简单、主观性较强等问题,基于企业安全文化的人本主体,设计以企业决策层、管理层、执行层为主体的企业安全文化指标体系;充分利用因素重构分析法和主成分分析法在数据处理上的各种优势,建立适应指标体系特征并考虑数据约束条件的企业安全文化评价模型;通过实例分析加以验证。该模型为解决企业安全文化评价中指标体系庞大复杂、样本空间小、缺少可以直接利用的历史数据等难题给出了一条具有可操作性的路径。