Quantitative risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems

This paper presents a novel quantitative risk analysis process for urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems (GIS). The process incorporates an assessment of failure rates of integrated pipeline networks, a quantitative analysis model of accident consequences, and assessments of individual and societal risks. Firstly, the failure rates of the pipeline network are calculated using empirical formulas influenced by parameters such as external interference, corrosion, construction defects, and ground movements. Secondly, the impacts of accidents due to gas leakage, diffusion, fires, and explosions are analyzed by calculating the area influenced by poisoning, burns, and deaths. Lastly, based on the previous analyses, individual risks and social risks are calculated. The application of GIS technology helps strengthen the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) model and allows construction of a QRA system for urban gas pipeline networks that can aid pipeline management staff in demarcating high risk areas requiring more frequent inspections.     

A new approach to quantitative assessment of reliability of passive systems

The objective of this paper is to show how probabilistic reliability can be assessed for complex systems in the absence of statistical data on their operating experience, based on performance evaluation of the dominant underlying physical processes. The approach is to distinguish between functional and performance probabilities when dealing with the quantification of the overall probability of a system to perform a given function in a given period of time (reliability). In the case of systems where sufficient statistical operating experience data are available, one can focus the quantitative evaluation entirely on the assessment of the functional probability for a given active item (e.g. a pump) by assuming that the specification, layout, construction and installation is such that the item is providing the assigned performance, e.g. in the form of generating the required flow rate. This is how traditional probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) focus the reliability analysis for the various safety features on the calculation of values for the availability per demand. In contrast, for various systems relevant in advanced technical applications, such as passive safety features in innovative reactor designs, it is essential to evaluate both functional and performance probabilities explicitly and combine the two probabilities later on. This is of course due to the strong reliance of passive safety systems on inherent physical principles. In practice, this means that, for example, in case of a passive cooling system based on natural circulation of a given medium, one has to evaluate and to assess the probability to have a medium condition and a flow rate such that a cladding temperature, represented by a probability distribution, can be hold at a required level. A practical example of this method is given for the case of the reliability assessment of a residual passive heat removal system. General conclusions are drawn regarding reliability estimation of complex, interconnected systems in the absence of statistical performance data, such as for infrastructures.     

Thermal risk analysis of cumene hydroperoxide in the presence of alkaline catalysts

Many studies have been performed to clarify the basic thermal runaway hazards and kinetics of cumene hydroperoxide (CHP) decomposition. However, materials that are incompatible with CHP have not been clearly identified. Alkaline solutions have been used as a catalyst to form dimethylphenyl carbinol (DMPC) and dicumyl peroxide (DCPO); however, these solutions also affect the reaction and storage temperature of CHP. In this study, thermal calorimeters, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2), were used to compare the effects of various bases on the decomposition of CHP in cumene. Specifically, the exothermic onset temperature, change in pressure over time, self-heating rate and heat of decomposition were evaluated. Moreover, to appraise the degree of hazard associated with the use of CHP, the compatibility of CHP with various substances was analyzed, and a risk matrix for thermal runaway reactions was obtained. The results of the present study could be used to design safety procedures for the production of CHP and its derivatives.     

火电厂锅炉再热器联络管裂纹分析及处理

某火电厂亚临界锅炉墙式再热器蒸汽出口至屏式再热器联络管母管及排空气管接管座产生裂纹发生渗漏。通过对墙式再热器出口管道排空气管接管座裂纹特征、结构型式、管道现场布置情况、运行环境等方面进行综合分析,认为排空气管道安装布置不合理,无保温措施,导致冷凝水倒流,形成热疲劳裂纹并逐步延伸扩展。确认产生裂纹的原因后,优化管道安装布置、对接管座结构型式做出改进并对产生裂纹的管道进行了更换,改进后锅炉运行约1.8× 10⁴ h后复检无缺陷。     

Thermal runaway criterion for chemical reaction systems: A modified divergence method

The chemical reaction in certain range of operating conditions may exhibit parametric sensitivity where small changes in one or more of the input parameters lead to changes in the output variables (eg. reaction temperature). The sharp rise of the reaction temperature is a critical behavior that may lead to runaway conditions. Thus, it is of vital importance to determine the critical operating parameters consisting of the parametric sensitivity region under the consideration of intrinsic safety. In this paper, a modified divergence criterion is proposed based on the trace of Jacobian matrix at the maximum temperature. The nonlinear differential equations describing the dynamic behavior of the chemical reaction is linearized locally in the vicinity of the equilibrium point by the small perturbation analysis. The relationship between the perturbation equation and parametric sensitivity of the reaction system is investigated. The critical values computed by the modified divergence criterion are compared with Morbidelli and Varma criterion (MV criterion), Adler and Enig criterion (AE criterion) and divergence criterion (Div criterion). The comparison demonstrates the validity of the new criterion. In addition, the critical explosion pressures of two kinds of hazardous chemicals are computed by the various critical criteria and compared with published experimental data. The results show that the modified divergence criterion could give smaller computational error compared with the previous criteria.     

A model for the initial stages following the rupture of a natural gas transmission pipeline

Experience shows that, despite the best efforts of the pipeline industry worldwide, pipelines do fail and release their contents to the atmosphere. In the case of below-ground pipelines transmitting natural gas, there is a chance that the release will be ignited, posing a significant hazard to any people in the vicinity. Mindful of this hazard, an international group of gas companies have collaborated over a period of many years on research projects aimed at developing an understanding of how these releases may arise (failure causes), how often they might occur (failure frequency), what type of releases might be produced (failure modes) and what type of behaviour might be produced for each of these modes of release (consequence analysis). This paper has been prepared to describe the mathematical models that have been developed on behalf of this group to assess the initial transient period following the rupture of a buried natural gas transmission pipeline assuming the release ignites immediately. It gives details of the equations used by the different models and it refers to some of the experimental data that has been used in the development of the models. A comparison of the model with the experimental data is provided. This demonstrates that the early stages could have a significant impact when evaluating the harm that could be caused. This provides a justification for developing the models rather than using a simpler alternative that does not take the initial highly transient period into account.     

Historical analysis of U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

Incidents at U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline systems were analyzed with an emphasis on natural hazards. Incidents triggered by natural hazards (natechs) were identified by keyword-based data mining and expert review supplemented by various data sources. The analysis covered about 7000 incidents in 1986–2012, 3800 of which were regarded as significant based on their consequences. 5.5% of all and 6.2% of the significant incidents were found to be natechs that resulted in a total hazardous substance release of 317,700 bbl. Although there is no trend in the long-term yearly occurrence of significant natechs, importance is found to be increasing due to the overall decreasing trend of the incidents. Meteorological hazards triggered 36% of the significant natechs, followed by geological and climatic hazards with 26% and 24%. While they occurred less frequently, hydrological hazards caused the highest amount of release which is about 102,000 bbl. The total economic cost of significant natechs was 597 million USD, corresponding to about 18% of all incident costs in the same period. More than 50% of this cost was due to meteorological hazards, mainly tropical cyclones. Natech vulnerabilities of the system parts vary notably with respect to natural hazard types. For some natural hazards damage is limited possibly due to implemented protection measures. The geographical distribution of the natechs indicated that they occurred more in some states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. About 50% of the releases was to the ground, followed by water bodies with 28%. Significant consequences to human health were not observed although more than 20% of the incidents resulted in fires. In general, the study indicated that natural hazards are a non-negligible threat to the onshore hazardous liquid pipeline network in the U.S. It also highlighted problems such as underreporting of natural hazards as incident causes, data completeness, and explicit data limitations.     

Carbon dioxide pipelines: A statistical analysis of historical accidents

Carbon dioxide pipeline is an essential carrier in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Statistically revealing the accident rate and risk of carbon dioxide pipelines is conducive to integrity management. Based on 112 accident records collected from Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, this work analyzes the frequency, rate, and risk of accidents. In addition, the impact of relevant factors on risk is further discussed. Some primary conclusions are as follows: (1) For carbon dioxide pipelines, the leak is the leading form of accident. Most carbon emissions are generated in the form of leakage, but economic losses are mainly generated in other forms. (2) The pipelines that have been in service for 0–10 years have the highest frequency of accidents and the highest proportion of carbon emissions, but the pipelines that have been in service for 11–20 years have caused the most economic losses. (3) Among the accident causes, the number of accidents caused by equipment failure is the highest, while the economic loss caused by natural force damage is the highest, and the carbon emission caused by material failure is the highest.     

A wave change analysis (WCA) method for pipeline leak detection using Gaussian mixture model

This paper presents a novel pipeline leak detection scheme based on gradient and slope turns rejection (GSTR). Instead of monitoring the pipeline under constant working pressure, GSTR introduces a new testing method which obtains data during the transient periods of different working pressures. A novel pipeline leak detection method based on those transient data without failure history is proposed. Wavelet packet analysis (WPA) is applied to extract features which capture the dynamic characteristics from the non-stationary pressure data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the feature space. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is utilized to approximate the density distribution of the lower-dimensional feature space which consists of the major principal components. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used to determine the number of mixtures for the GMM and a density boosting method is applied to achieve better accuracy of the distribution estimation. An experimental case study for oil pipeline system is used as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

HAZOP在油气管道站场风险分析中的应用实践

针对长输油气管道站场具有高温高压、易燃易爆、压力容器集中、工艺条件苛刻、生产连续性强等特点,阐述了HAZOP（危险与可操作性研究）技术在长输管道站场风险分析中的必要性和应用步骤。通过HAZOP分析可确定站场主要的节点和有实际意义的偏差,通过分析偏差产生的原因、后果及可采取的对策,结合风险矩阵判定事故的风险等级。实例应用表明HAZOP能够识别出站场中存在的隐患,对隐患进行分级并提出针对性的建议措施,有助于企业进行隐患整治,对提高站场工艺设施及操作的安全可靠性、减少各类事故的发生有着十分积极的作用。     

Effects of soil-structure interaction on fragility and seismic risk; a case study of power plant containment

Safety-related structures are designed to provide a safe environment for the occupants and equipment during and after earthquakes. This is due to the fact that any damage imposed to the systems might lead to catastrophic consequences. Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) is a systematic approach for the quantification of the seismic risk. One of the crucial steps in this assessment is to determine the seismic capacity of the structures by fragility method. After a review of available methodologies, this article analyzes the seismic fragility for a typical power plant containment considering the effects of soil-structure interaction (SSI). The structure and underneath soil profile are analyzed as a unified model by the subtraction method. Two steps are considered for the assessment of seismic response: In the first step, a fixed-base hypothesis framework is implemented to the computational problem. The second step covers computations taking into account the SSI effects. Using the results of seismic response analysis and safety factor method, seismic fragility of the structure is computed and related fragility curves are developed. Finally, by comparing the fragility curves, the effects of SSI are quantified on the overall seismic risk.     

Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry

Near misses are well-known for providing a major source of useful information for safety management. They are more frequent events than accidents and their causes may potentially result in an accident under slightly different circumstances. Despite the importance of this type of feedback, there is little knowledge on the characteristics of near misses, and on the use of this information in safety management. This article proposes guidelines for identifying, analyzing and disseminating information on near misses in construction sites. In particular, it is proposed that near misses be analyzed based on four categories: (a) whether or not it was possible to track down the event; (b) the nature of each event, in terms of its physical features (e.g. falling objects); (c) whether they provided positive or negative feedback for the safety management system; and (d) risk, based on the probability and severity associated with each event. The guidelines were devised and tested while a safety management system was being developed in a healthcare building project. The monitoring of near misses was part of a safety performance measurement system. Among the main results, a dramatic increase in both the number and quality of reports stands out after the workforce was systematically encouraged to report. While in the first 4 months of the study – when the workforce was not encouraged to report – there were just 12 reports, during the subsequent 4 months – when the workforce was so encouraged – there were 110 reports, all of them being analyzed based on the four analytical categories proposed.     

Self healing databases for predictive risk analytics in safety-critical systems

Assuring the quality, consistency and accuracy of safety data repositories is essential in safety-critical systems. In many systems, however, significant effort is required to identify, address, clean and repair data errors and inconsistencies, and to integrate safety data sets and repositories, particularly for risk analyses. Although some self healing and self repairing capabilities leveraging machine learning and predictive analyses have been employed to identify anomalies and monitor quality in structured safety-critical data sets, little attention has been focused on addressing shortcomings in heterogeneous—structured and unstructured—safety data sets, the focus of this work. The text mining and classification analysis employed in this research indicates that machine learning techniques can be employed to improve the accuracy and robustness of large-scale structured and unstructured database repositories, and to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of safety data repository maintenance. Hybrid machine learning approaches, leveraging machine learning, text mining and natural language processing, offer additional promise in future work.     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

Fault diagnosis of pipeline and pump unit systems using status coupling analysis

Earlier studies on fault diagnosis of the pipeline and pump unit systems (PPU) relied mainly on independent equipment analyses, which usually lead to false alarms because of the loss of information fusion. The aim of this study is to utilize the status coupling relationship to improve fault detection sensitivity and reduce false alarm rate. A real-time status identification of related equipment step is added between capturing abnormal signals and listing out diagnosis results. For example, when the pipeline pressure fluctuation is found abnormal, a status analysis of pump units is performed immediately, if the pump units are proven to be operational normally, then the pipeline leak alarm is acknowledged valid. The logical reasoning algorithm is used to capture abnormal conditions of pipeline pressures. The pump unit faults are captured by combining information from multiple sources. Field applications show that the proposed method significantly improves the PPU fault detection capability on fault detection sensitive and accuracy.     

A risk reduction approach for academic research labs: A case study on naphthenic corrosion

Academic research and development (R&D) labs are a significant part of academic life. But there can be physical, environmental, and experiment quality risks associated to this activity. Academic labs can present specific experiments, which have associated risks for researchers. Academic labs are also characterized by a high turnover of students and many of them are not fully aware of the level of physical and environmental risks of their activity. Accidents in academic labs with injuries and loss of life are facts that have to be tackled through risk management approaches. The objective of this paper is to present an integrated management approach, tackling risk management and analysis methods. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) and PFMEA (Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) enabled, respectively, the analysis of safety and environmental risks. By quantifying the level of risk according to the type of experiment and the research context, it is possible to provide safety to the system. The resulting Digital Poka-Yoke – a mistake-proofing approach – has brought about the desired quality of results in experiments. The proposed approach was validated through a case study monitoring naphthenic corrosion experiments conducted by the Lab of Surface Electrochemistry and Corrosion (LSEC) at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR). As a consequence, this approach is currently in use at this lab.     

Thermal risk in batch reactors: Case of peracetic acid synthesis

The present paper deals with accidents risk in batch reactors. It identifies the conditions for the occurrence of a thermal runaway and develops a probabilistic approach to assess the relevant risk. It investigates also the conditions for optimal synthesis of peracetic acid (PAA) with hydrogen peroxide (HP) and acetic acid (AA). The kinetic model of reversible reaction and side reaction of PAA synthesis is used to predict reactor temperature and molar ratio of PAA by ASPEN PLUS software. A sensitivity analysis is performed under different conditions such as constant temperature or adiabatic process with different concentrations of sulfuric acid. Assuming a prior cooling system failure, the conditions for reaction runaway triggering a thermal accident are identified in the case of PAA synthesis. Monte Carlo simulations are used in order to calculate the conditional probability of accident and optimize the synthesis of PAA.     

Numerical and experimental study on the generation and propagation of negative wave in high-pressure gas pipeline leakage

Negative-wave-based leakage detection and localization technology has been widely used in the pipeline system to diminish leak loss and enhance environmental protection from hazardous leak events. However, the fluid mechanics behind the negative wave method has yet been disclosed. The objective of this paper is to investigate the generation and propagation of negative wave in high-pressure pipeline leakage. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamic (CFD) study on the negative wave was carried out with large eddy simulation (LES) method. Experimentally validated simulation presented the transient wave generation at the leak onset and the comprehensive wave evolution afterwards. Negative wave was proven to be a kind of rarefaction acoustic waves induced by transient mass loss at the onset of leakage. Diffusion due to the density difference at wave fronts drives the negative wave propagation. Propagation of negative wave can be categorized into three states – semi-spherical wave, wave superposition and plane wave, based on different wave forms. The wave characteristics at different states were elucidated and the attenuation effects were discussed respectively. Finally, a non-dimensional correlation was proposed to predict the negative wave amplitude based on pipeline pressure and leak diameter.     

Thermal risk in batch reactors: Theoretical framework for runaway and accident

Thermal safety and risk of accidents are still challenging topics in the case of batch reactors carrying exothermic reactions. In the present paper, the authors develop an integrated framework focusing on defining the governing parameters for the thermal runaway and evaluating the subsequent risk of accident. A relevant set of criteria are identified in order to find the prior conditions for a thermal runaway: failure of the cooling system, critical temperature threshold, successive derivatives of the temperature (first and second namely) vs. time and no detection in due time (reaction time) of the runaway initiation. For illustrative purposes, the synthesis of peracetic acid (PAA) with hydrogen peroxide (HP) and acetic acid (AA) is considered as case study. The critical and threshold values for the runaway accident are identified for selected sets of input data. Under the conditional probability of prior cooling system failure, Monte Carlo simulations are performed in order to estimate the risk of thermal runaway accident in batch reactors. It becomes then possible to predict the ratio of reactors, within an industrial plant, potentially subject to thermal runaway accident.     

Thermal hazards analysis of styrene in contact with impurities

Styrene is a reactive monomer commonly used to produce polystyrene and other copolymers. Unintended thermal runaway polymerization reactions of styrene keep reoccurring and have led to catastrophic consequences. One of the possible causes of these runaway incidents involves the contamination of the styrene monomer by incompatible species, which was not adequately investigated and documented. This study focuses on the quantification of thermal runaway hazards of styrene in contact with a series of contamination substances by adopting calorimetric analysis. Both Differential Scanning Calorimeter (DSC) and Advanced Reactive System Screening Tool (ARSST) were employed to examine the exothermic characteristics of styrene mixed with contaminating substances at different concentration levels and mixing conditions. Key safety parameters of the exothermic reaction, such as the onset temperature, the overall heat release, the maximum self-heating rate, as well as the activation energy, were obtained. The results indicated that the thermal runaway polymerization of purified styrene was significantly altered by the presence of contaminant species. Water effectively retarded and quenched the runaway polymerization at a higher temperature range. Alkaline had no substantial effect on the thermal runaway characteristics. The presence of acid solution under both static contact and vigorous mixing condition significantly promoted the thermal polymerization of styrene. A trace amount of concentrated acid initiated violent exothermic activity even at room temperature; and the severity of the reaction was profoundly impacted by the mass-transfer. Our study demonstrates significant implications in the prevention of runaway incidents during transportation and storage of styrene.