A note concerning time parameterization of Markovian models of ecosystem flow analysis

A continuous Markovian model of resource flow in a steady state ecosystem model is developed. This model calculates the mean and variance of the frequency of intercompartmental cyclings and duration of compartmental residence times. This model is compared with an analogous discrete Markovian flow model to demonstrate the sensitivity of discrete and continuous ecosystem flow analyses. Appropriate time parameterization of of discrete Markovian flow models is then discussed with special reference to Shannon's theorem of dynamic system sampling.     

Continuous versus binary representations of landscape heterogeneity in spatially-explicit models of mobile populations

How a landscape is represented is an important structural assumption in spatially-explicit simulation models. Simple models tend to specify just habitat and non-habitat (binary), while more complex models may use multiple levels or a continuum of habitat quality (continuous). How these different representations influence model projections is unclear. To assess the influence of landscape representation on population models, I developed a general, individual-based model with local dispersal and examined population persistence across binary and continuous landscapes varying in the amount and fragmentation of habitat. In binary and continuous landscapes habitat and non-habitat were assigned a unique mean suitability. In continuous landscapes, suitability of each individual site was then drawn from a normal distribution with fixed variance. Populations went extinct less often and abundances were higher in continuous landscapes. Production in habitat and non-habitat was higher in continuous landscapes, because the range of habitat suitability sampled by randomly dispersing individuals was higher than the overall mean habitat suitability. Increasing mortality, dispersal distance, and spatial heterogeneity all increased the discrepancy between continuous and binary landscapes. The effect of spatial structure on the probability of extinction was greater in binary landscapes. These results show that, under certain circumstances, model projections are influenced by how variation in suitability within a landscape is represented. Care should be taken to assess how a given species actually perceives the landscape when conducting population viability analyses or empirical validation of theory.     

Choosing classes for size projection matrix models

Projection matrix models are intensely used in ecology to model the dynamics of structured populations. When dealing with size-structured populations, there is no satisfactory algorithm to partition size into discrete classes. We show that the Vandermeer-Moloney algorithm for choosing classes is inconsistent with the Usher model, and systematically selects the finest classes. Considering that the matrix model is a discrete approximation of a continuous model, we define an approximation error as the sum of a distribution error (the difference between the discrete distribution and its continuous counterpart), and a sample error. The optimal partition of size into classes is the one that minimizes the approximation error. This method for choosing classes also shows that the choice of the class width cannot be disconnected from the choice of the time step. When applied to 520 trees of Dicorynia guianensis in French Guiana, this algorithm identified 8 classes of 11.4 cm in width, which is in agreement with the empirical choice of foresters.     

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.     

Beta-normal distribution in dose–response modeling and risk assessment for quantitative responses

To establish allowable daily intakes for humans from animal bioassay experiments, benchmark doses corresponding to low levels of risk have been proposed to replace the no-observed-adverse-effect level for non-cancer endpoints. When the experimental outcomes are quantal, each animal can be classified with or without the disease. The proportion of affected animals is observed as a function of dose and calculation of the benchmark dose is relatively simple. For quantitative responses, on the other hand, one method is to convert the continuous data to quantal data and proceed with benchmark dose estimation. Another method which has found more popularity (Crump, Risk Anal 15:79–89; 1995) is to fit an appropriate dose–response model to the continuous data, and directly estimate the risk and benchmark doses. The normal distribution has often been used in the past as a dose–response model. However, for non-symmetric data, the normal distribution can lead to erroneous results. Here, we propose the use of the class of beta-normal distribution and demonstrate its application in risk assessment for quantitative responses. The most important feature of this class of distributions is its generality, encompassing a wide range of distributional shapes including the normal distribution as a special case. The properties of the model are briefly discussed and risk estimates are derived based on the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. An example is used for illustration.

Competition, predation and coexistence in a three trophic system

Simple ecological models that mostly operate with population densities using continuous variables, explain quite well the behavior of real populations. In this work we propose and discuss the continuous dynamics of a system of three species, which belongs to the well-known family of Lotka–Volterra models. In particular, the proposed model includes direct effects such as predation and competition among species, and indirect effects such as refuge. The model is proposed to explain recent studies about a group of crustacean (amphipods of genus Hyallela) found in all the plain streams and shallow lakes of the American continent. The studied system includes three compartments: algae, a strictly herbivore amphipod and an omnivore (herbivore and carnivore) one. The analysis of the model shows that there are stable extinction equilibria throughout all the parameters’ space. There are also equilibria with stable coexistence of the three species and two interesting binary equilibria: one with stable coexistence of algae and herbivore and other with coexistence between algae and omnivore amphipods. The presence of Allee effect in the algae growth and the existence of refuge for the herbivore amphipod (prey) determine a bottom-up control.     

Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing

Spatial autocorrelation techniques are commonly used to describe genetic and ecological patterns. To improve statistical inference about spatial covariance, we propose a continuous nonparametric estimator of the covariance function in place of the spatial correlogram. The spline correlogram is an adaptation of a recent development in spatial statistics and is a generalization of the commonly used correlogram. We propose a bootstrap algorithm to erect a confidence envelope around the entire covariance function. The meaning of this envelope is discussed. Not all functions that can be drawn inside the envelope are candidate covariance functions, as they may not be positive semidefinite. However, covariance functions that do not fit, are not supported by the data. A direct estimate of the L₀ spatial correlation length with associated confidence interval is offered and its interpretation is discussed. The spline correlogram is found to have high precision when applied to synthetic data. For illustration, the method is applied to electrophoretic data of an alpine grass (Poa alpina).     

Optimized quantity-within-distance models of spatial welfare heterogeneity

Spatial welfare heterogeneity is frequently modeled within stated preference analysis as a function of discrete or continuous distance between households and affected resources. A common example is distance-decay analysis. Although distance-based models such as these are easily estimated, the ubiquity of this paradigm can lead to analyses that overlook other forms of analysis with equal or greater relevance. This paper develops an alternative approach to spatial heterogeneity in stated preference willingness to pay (WTP) based on the quantity or area of an affected resource surrounding each respondent at an optimized distance band or radius, with distance bands optimized using a grid-search algorithm that maximizes model likelihood. Methods and results are illustrated using a choice experiment on riparian land restoration in Maine, USA. The resulting quantity-within-distance model identifies systematic spatial patterns that are undetectable using distance-based analysis and directly relevant for welfare analysis.     

A Poisson–Gamma model for analysis of ecological non-negative continuous data

The statistical analysis of continuous data that is non-negative is a common task in quantitative ecology. An example, and our motivation, is the weight of a given fish species in a fish trawl. The analysis task is complicated by the occurrence of exactly zero observations. It makes many statistical methods for continuous data inappropriate. In this paper we propose a model that extends a Tweedie generalised linear model. The proposed model exploits the fact that a Tweedie distribution is equivalent to the distribution obtained by summing a Poisson number of gamma random variables. In the proposed model, both the number of gamma variates, and their average size, are modelled separately. The model has a composite link and has a flexible mean-variance relationship that can vary with covariates. We illustrate the model, and compare it to other models, using data from a fish trawl survey in south-east Australia.     

Some long term dynamics of predator-prey models with diffusion

This paper analyzes the long term time dynamics of theoretical predator-prey systems in a continuous medium with constant diffusion. It is shown that oscillatory or unstable predator-prey interactions will lead to patchy distributions and that unstable interactions will persist for very long periods of time when diffusion is operating. Some of the problems of sampling and parameter estimation of data from patchy distributions are examined and discussed.     

长期连作及秸秆还田对棉田土壤微生物量及种群结构的影响

通过采用常规微生物培养技术分析长期不同连作年限及秸秆还田棉田土壤微生物量及种群结构变化,揭示棉花连作及秸秆还田与土壤微生物多样性关系。研究表明,随着连作年限增加,秸秆还田连作模式下真菌数量持续增加,细菌和微生物总量在连作5-20 a逐渐下降,25 a后又上升;非秸秆还田连作模式随着连作年限增加其微生物种群变化与秸秆还田连作模式变化一致,但非秸秆还田连作模式土壤细菌和微生物总量分别比秸秆还田连作模式在连作5、10和15 a降低42.9%、57.9%、70.6%和41.9%、54.7%和65.7%,而真菌数量增加28.4%、80.8%和116.7%。说明棉花秸秆还田能够增加微生物数量,改善棉田土壤微生物种群结构。连作棉田土壤Simpson指数和Shannon指数呈随连作年限增加呈增加的趋势,连作棉田土壤微生物细菌/真菌（B/F）和放线菌/真菌（A/F）比值在秸秆还田模式下先逐渐减小至连作25 a有升高,而非秸秆还田模式下持续下降。     

Evolving social influence in large populations

Darwinian studies of collective human behaviour, which deal fluently with change and are grounded in the details of social influence among individuals, have much to offer “social” models from the physical sciences which have elegant statistical regularities. Although Darwinian evolution is often associated with selection and adaptation, “neutral” models of drift are equally relevant. Building on established neutral models, we present a general, yet highly parsimonious, stochastic model, which generates an entire family of real-world, right-skew socio-economic distributions, including exponential, winner-take-all, power law tails of varying exponents, and power laws across the whole data. The widely used Barabási and Albert (1999) Science 286: 509-512 “B-A” model of preferential attachment is a special case of this general model. In addition, the model produces the continuous turnover observed empirically within these distributions. Previous preferential attachment models have generated specific distributions with turnover using arbitrary add-on rules, but turnover is an inherent feature of our model. The model also replicates an intriguing new relationship, observed across a range of empirical studies, between the power law exponent and the proportion of data represented in the distribution.     

Modelling spatial zero-inflated continuous data with an exponentially compound Poisson process

A parsimonious model is presented as an alternative to delta approaches to modelling zero-inflated continuous data. The data model relies on an exponentially compound Poisson process, also called the law of leaks (LOL). It represents the process of sampling resources that are spatially distributed as Poisson distributed patches, each containing a certain quantity of biomass drawn from an exponential distribution. In an application of the LOL, two latent structures are proposed to account for spatial dependencies between zero values at different scales within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The LOL is compared to the delta-gamma (ΔΓ) distribution using bottom-trawl survey data. Results of this case study emphasize that the LOL provides slightly better fits to learning samples with a very high proportion of zero values and small strictly positive abundance data. Additionally, it offers better predictions of validation samples.     

A cell system for symplastic transport of photoassimilate between meristoderm and sieve elements in Alaria teniufolia

Prior to long-distance assimilate transport in the blades of Laminariales, photoassimilate from the meristoderm (source tissue) must first be transferred across the cortex before it can be loaded into the sieve elements. This radial assimilate transfer seems to be a symplastic parenchyma transport. The wings of Alaria tenuifolia Setchell are only a few cell layers thick and reveal a continuous cell system interconnecting the meristoderm with the sieve elements. This cell system probably provides an uninterrupted route for the symplastic transverse assimilate transfer and loading. The tissue topography of the wings, the anatomy of the composing cell types, and the micromorphology of the cellular network channelling assimilate to the sieve element system are described. The anatomical results are discussed with regard to the transport physiology of Laminariales in general and the possible mode of sieve element loading.     

有机污染土壤通风去污技术优化设计

有机污染土壤通风去污技术（SVE）是一种经济,安全的场内治理技术,SVE优化设计包括建立污染土壤通风去污模型和抽排去污流场模型,并以此为基础算工程费用,用一虚拟工况对提出的模型及计算公式进行了验证。     

Simulation modeling of material and energy flow through an ecosystem: Methods and documentation

This paper discusses the process of development of large-scale ecological simulation models as it proceeds through steps divided between two major phases — conceptualization and implementation. The activities in these phases are strongly influenced by model objectives. Activities transpiring in each step are discussed and documentation methods both for the modelling process and its product are introduced for each of the steps. Examples are given from CONIFER, a large-scale coniferous forest model developed by the author in cooperation with another investigator. The role of the model documentation, both in aiding model development and in clearly communicating and allowing criticism of the model, is emphasized. Model evaluation, checking that the model satisfies its objectives, is seen as an area of model development which indicates which parts of the model need reworking.     

Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts

This paper provides a framework through which a dynamic resource management problem with potential regime shifts can be analyzed both in a strategic environment and from a social planner?s perspective. Based on a fairly general model, a condition for a precautionary policy is discussed. By applying the framework to a common-property resource problem with a linear production technology, we illustrate how the qualitative as well as quantitative nature of equilibrium is altered due to the possibility of regime shifts. In particular, when the risk is endogenously affected by the players? behavior, potential regime shifts can facilitate the precautionary management of resources as long as the resource stock is in good shape. As the stock of resource becomes scarce, however, the precautionary effect vanishes and more aggressive resource exploitation emerges. The impacts of irreversibility on the equilibrium behavior are highlighted. It is also shown that there can exist a resource-depletion trap in which a regime shift, once it happens, triggers a continuous decline of resource stock no matter which regime materializes in the subsequent periods.     

云下气体湿清除过程参数化

本文发展一个雨水对云下气体清除的一维拉氏模式,它包括了气体对雨滴的对流质量输送,物种在雨水中溶解、离解和液相氧化反应。应用这模式计算了不同参数情况下,雨水对SO_2气体的湿清除系数,并讨论了雨强,SO_2,NH_3和氧化剂浓度以及雨水pH_0初值与雨水清除系数的关系。     

Critical flow-storm approach to total maximum daily load (TMDL) development: an analytical conceptual model

One of the key challenges in the total maximum daily load (TMDL) development process is how to define the critical condition for a receiving waterbody. The main concern in using a continuous simulation approach is the absence of any guarantee that the most critical condition will be captured during the selected representative hydrologic period, given the scarcity of long-term continuous data. The objectives of this paper are to clearly address the critical condition in the TMDL development process and to compare continuous and event-based approaches in defining critical condition during TMDL development for a waterbody impacted by both point and nonpoint source pollution. A practical, event-based critical flow-storm (CFS) approach was developed to explicitly addresses the critical condition as a combination of a low stream flow and a storm event of a selected magnitude, both having certain frequencies of occurrence. This paper illustrated the CFS concept and provided its theoretical basis using a derived analytical conceptual model. The CFS approach clearly defined a critical condition, obtained reasonable results and could be considered as an alternative method in TMDL development.     

Two models for the evolution of polygyny

Summary Two models of conditions for the evolution of polygyny are treated axiomatically. Both models assume a social system based on female mate choice in situations in which a female is better off if she mates polygynously with an already mated male on a superior territory than if she selects a bachelor on an inferior territory. One model, the competitive female choice model, assumes that the females of a harem compete for the limited resources of the harem and thus that their fitness decreases as co-wives are added. The cooperative female choice model assumes that, within limits, a female's fitness is improved by the addition of co-wives to her mate's harem, as a result of cooperative interactions within the group. For each model, a sufficient set of independent assumptions is provided. Implications of the models are indicated and methods for testing them are discussed.