Ecological network analysis of an urban energy metabolic system: Model development, and a case study of four Chinese cities

Urban metabolism research faces difficulties defining ecological trophic levels and analyzing relationships among the metabolic system's energy components. Here, we propose a new way to perform such research. By integrating throughflow analysis with ecological network utility analysis, we used network flows to analyze the metabolic system's network structure and the ecological relationships within the system. We developed an ecological network model for the system, and used four Chinese cities as examples of how this approach provides insights into the flows within the system at both high and low levels of detail. Using the weight distribution in the network flow matrix, we determined the structure of the urban energy metabolic system and the trophic levels; using the sign distribution in the network utility matrix, we determined the relationships between each pair of the system's compartments and their degrees of mutualism. The model uses compartments based on 17 sectors (energy exploitation; coal-fired power; heat supply; washed coal; coking; oil refinery; gas generation; coal products; agricultural; industrial; construction; communication, storage, and postal service; wholesale, retail, accommodation, and catering; household; other consuming; recovery; and energy stocks). Analyzing the structure and functioning of the urban energy metabolic system revealed ways to optimize its structure by adjusting the relationships among compartments, thereby demonstrating how ecological network analysis can be used in future urban system research.     

滨海新区规划对区域生态网络结构的影响分析

以滨海新区2008年卫星影像、《滨海新区城市总体规划（2005-2020）》和《滨海新区城市空间发展战略研究（2005-2050）》为基础,在GIS技术下运用景观格局分析、网络结构分析及斑块间的相互作用力分析法研究了滨海新区规划对区域生态网络结构的影响。结果表明：滨海新区2008年生态网络景观破碎化严重且连通性差;《总体规划》侧重于斑块间的廊道连接,但大尺度斑块比例小;《战略研究》侧重于大尺度斑块的构建,但连通性较差;根据景观生态学原理,提出了滨海新区的生态网络结构改进建议。     

Environ indicator sensitivity to flux uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Effective environmental impact assessment and management requires improved understanding of the organization and transformation of ecosystems in which independent agents are linked through an intricate network of energy, matter, and informational interactions. While advances have been made, we still lack a complete understanding of the processes that create, constrain, and sustain ecosystems. Network environ analysis (NEA) provides one approach for building novel ecosystem insights, but it is model dependent. As ecological modeling is an imprecise art, often complicated by inadequate empirical data, the utility of NEA may be limited by model uncertainty. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of NEA indicators of ecosystem growth and development to flow and storage uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA. The indicators are total system throughflow (TST), total system storage (TSS), total boundary input (Boundary), Finn cycling index (FCI), ratio of indirect-to-direct flows (Indirect/Direct), indirect flow index (IFI), network aggradation (AGG), network homogenization (HMG), and network amplification (AMP). Our results make two primary contributions. First, they demonstrate that five of the indicators – FCI, Indirect/Direct, IFI, AGG and HMG – are relatively robust to the flow and storage uncertainty in the Lake Lanier model. This stability lets us draw robust conclusions about the Lake Lanier ecosystem organization (e.g., phosphorus flux in the lake is dominated by internal processes) in spite of uncertainties in the model. Second, we show that the majority of the indicators co-vary and that most of their common variation could be mapped onto two latent factors, which we interpret as (1) system integration and (2) boundary influences.     

北京城区大气颗粒物与地表土壤金属元素空间关联分析

为研究北京市区大气降尘金属来源及其与表层土壤的关系,在北京市区五环内的典型地段采集落尘与土壤样品。研究中使用电感耦合等离子体原子光谱仪(ICP-AES)测定了9种金属元素Cd、Cu、Zn、Fe、Pb、V、Ti、Mn、Al的质量分数。结果显示,降尘和土壤中Al、Fe两种元素所占比例最大,质量分数分别为16144.8、12881.9μg· g-1和21400.9、815712.2μg· g-1。其次降尘中Zn、Ti和土壤中Ti、Mn居第二位。随后基于灰度关联法对大气降尘与表层土壤的金属元素关系分析可知,大气降尘与表层土壤是高度关联的,关联值均介于0.92~0.95之间,二者间关联较为紧密。其中在空气降尘对表层土壤的影响研究中分析得出,空气降尘对表层土壤的影响与采样点的空间位置变化相关性不强,与风向、风速等自然环境因素的关联度较大。在表层土壤对空气降尘的影响研究中分析得出,表层土壤对空气降尘的影响度随采样点环境变化较大,尤其是北京南站。最后,通过对降尘金属元素进行因子分析得出,第一因子Z1同时与Pb、V、Ti、Mn、Al、Fe、Cu、Cd等元素有较大关系;第二个因子Z2与Cd、Cu等元素有较大的相关性;第三个因子Z3与Zn、Fe等元素有较大相关性,与其它7种元素的相关性不明显。前三因子 Z1、Z2、Z3方差累积贡献率可达97.2%,由此可知,降尘来源主要与风引起的地面扬尘,与塑料制品的焚烧,冶金、化工等工业影响及轮胎磨损有关。     

工业污染治理项目经济评估方法及共改进

本文分析了工业污染治理项目经济评估的方法及其特点，并给出了深入此类研究的基本思路。     

A Markov random field spatio-temporal analysis of ocean temperature

The National Oceanic Data Center (NODC) contains historical records from approximately 144,000 hydrographic stations in the North Atlantic. This data has been used by oceanographers to construct maps of point estimates of pressure, temperature, salinity and oxygen in the North Atlantic (Levitus (1994); Lozier et al. (1995)). Because data from any particular year are scarce, the previous maps have been for time-averaged values only. In addition, the maps have been reported without uncertainty estimates. This paper presents a Markov random field (MRF) analysis that can generate maps for specific time periods along with associated uncertainties. To estimate changes in oceanic properties over time previous oceanographic work has focused on differences between a few time periods each having many observations. Due to data scarcity this poses a severe restriction for both spatial and temporal coverage of climatic change. The MRF analysis provides a means for temporal modeling that does not require high data density at each time period. To demonstrate the usefulness of a MRF analysis of oceanic data we investigate the temporal variability along 24.5°N in the North Atlantic. Our results are compared to an earlier analysis (Parrilla et al. (1994)) where data from only three time periods was used. We obtain a more thorough understanding of the temperature change found by this previous study.     

污染治理投资质量与回报量化分析

从环境污染治理投资的相关因子和系数分析入手，对治理投资质量和效果分别建立了量化函数关系，由此计算结果与理论标准值比较，则可确定其投资质量与回报结果。     

基于多元统计的引黄水库沉沙条渠泥沙与水质的变异分析

以济南市引黄供水鹊山水库沉沙条渠为研究对象,测定了9个断面（Y1—Y9）表层水体中的含沙量、总有机碳、总磷、总氮、叶绿素a等19个水质指标.运用主成分分析法和聚类分析法分别探讨水体的主要污染因子及监测断面的沿程归类,并通过室内模拟实验分析了泥沙对水体中N、P浓度的影响.结果表明,沉沙条渠中的水质总体特征以Ⅱ类水和Ⅲ类水为主,其中,超标水质指标为TN,达到劣Ⅴ类水标准,P为藻类生长的限制因子.19个水质指标可由6个主成分来反映,其贡献率分别为：F1（TN、NH3-N、NO3--N、NO2--N、总碱度、Br-、硫酸盐）34.41%,F2（含沙量、浊度、色度、电导率）22.78%,F3（pH和UV254）13.95%,F4（TP）6.280%,F5（CODCr）4.990%和F6（Chl-a）4.830%;9个监测断面归为4类,相应地整个沉沙条渠可划分为4个功能区：入渠布水区（Y1、Y2、Y3）、快速沉降区（Y4、Y5）、缓慢沉降区（Y6、Y7、Y8）和出水稳定区（Y9）.此外,水质与泥沙关系的室内模拟实验表明,条渠来水的P浓度随着泥沙颗粒的沉降而降低,TP在0—15 h内快速下降,而后缓慢下降,30 h内基本达到平衡;而泥沙颗粒对水中N浓度基本没有影响.     

大气降水化学的统计学分析——以浙江省金华市为例

运用相关分析、因子分析和聚类分析等统计学方法,对2004-2005年间浙江省金华市的大气降水化学组成和分布特征进行了分析.结果表明,SO2-4,NH 4,Ca2 ,NO-3和H 是降水的主要离子,降水的pH值、电导率及离子组分均呈明显的正偏态分布,降水样品以低离子含量的样本为主.降水中水溶性离子主要分为4类,SO2-4,NH 4,NO-3,Ca2 和F-主要来自人为活动的贡献,K 和Mg2 主要来自土壤、沙尘等地壳来源,Na 和Cl-属于典型的海盐性成分,H 则反映了各种离子中和作用对降水酸度的综合影响.     

天津市大气环境监测数据的主成分分析

本文采用主成分分析法分析了天津市大气环境监测数据,得到两个主成分;环境质量主成分和风沙主成分;根据主成分点图,将一年分成３个阶段;采暖期,非采暖期和风沙期。     

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.     

6—叠氮—6—脱氧—1,2：3,4—二—氧—异丙叉基—α—D—半乳糖的构象分析

在合成卡那霉类似物的核心结构时，发现６－叠氮－６脱氧１，２；３，４－二－氧－惜内叉基－α－Ｄ－半乳糖的核磁共振数据与普通六元环的船式或椅式构象大不相同，进一步通过分子力学模型ＭＭＰ２的计算，发现它具有扭船式的分子构象（Ｔｗｉｓｔ ｂｏａｔ）。     

北京市大兴县留民营村的庭院经济系统

采用典型定点法调查农户庭院经济系统，并对其进行能流和经济效益分析。结果表明，菜－鸡－猪－沼气结构的庭院经济系统能获得较好的效益。     

Evaluating multi-stakeholder perceptions of project impacts: a participatory value-based multi-criteria approach

This paper describes a participatory multi-stakeholder impact assessment approach based on the concept of a value tree (VT), generated using the value focused thinking method (VFT) developed by Keeney (1992 Keeney, R. 1992. Value-focused thinking, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]). This approach allows stakeholders to specify impact parameters to be evaluated, which in the context of the VT, are organized as goals, objectives and alternatives. The approach is implemented in two phases: Phase I is designed to formulate stakeholders' collective VT following VFT concepts and the cognitive mapping method, and Phase II is a participatory valuation approach based on the VT formed in Phase I. The VT and the VFT concepts are adopted as tools to capture different stakeholders' values, goals and perceptions. The resulting VT is structured as a hierarchy between goals and objectives, and a network consisting of relationships, linkages and cross-impacts of the different alternatives and objectives. The hierarchy and network structure enables stakeholders to decompose complex assessment problem into ‘smaller’ units, which makes for easier and clearer assessment context, without ignoring linkages of the units or assessment elements. The second phase allows stakeholders to express their preferences with respect to each assessment element, through a voting system that ultimately leads to measures of importance or relative weights associated with each element. A modified Analytic Hierarchy Process (called Analytic Network Process) was used to distill relative weights from the voting results. Results obtained from a case study in a Zimbabwean community forest show that the proposed approach is easy to implement and can address questions about whether a project can lead to a positive change in attitudes, and whether the changes actually lead to a propensity to adopt alternatives that the project supports (e.g. conservation-oriented alternatives).     

Radial basis function networks with partially classified data

The problem of estimating a classification rule with partially classified observations, which often occurs in biological and ecological modelling, and which is of major interest in pattern recognition, is discussed. Radial basis function networks for classification problems are presented and compared with the discriminant analysis with partially classified data, in situations where some observations in the training set are unclassified. An application on a set of morphometric data obtained from the skulls of 288 specimens of Microtus subterraneus and Microtus multiplex is performed. This example illustrates how the use of both classified and unclassified observations in the estimate of the hidden layer parameters has the potential to greatly improve the network performances.     

气候因子对靖远松叶蜂暴发的影响

运用SAS8.2中的主成份分析法分析了1988~1997年的气象数据,研究了温度、湿度、降雨量与靖远松叶蜂发生的关系,用实验数据对统计分析结果进行了解释,并运用典型判别分析建立了非时滞和时滞预报模型,进一步研究各种气候因子的综合作用.结果表明,10月份较高的气温与较高的湿度有利于靖远松叶蜂大量结茧,为来年的暴发提供虫源;靖远松叶蜂小幼虫的死亡率与温度呈显著线性正相关(r=0.4,P=0.036),与相对湿度呈弱的线性负相关(r=-0.25,P=0.147),即7月较高的温度与较低的湿度有利于靖远松叶蜂的暴发.1991年靖远松叶蜂开始小规模暴发与1990年初霜期异常推迟有关,8月份过多或过少的降雨可能会妨碍靖远松叶蜂病毒的流行,从而有利于靖远松叶蜂大规模暴发.非时滞预报模型回代正判率为81.8%,时滞预报模型回代正判率为72.7%.典型判别函数表明,温度因子是决定靖远松叶蜂暴发的最主要气象因子.图3表4参9     

Analysis of the ph in Europe during the period 1986–1997

The annual averages (1986–1997) of pH are analysed for the most important European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme stations in Europe. The first objective is to discover the different temporal patterns and trends for the pH. To do this, a cluster analysis is developed. The trends are analysed by linear regression for the annual averages. In general, the pH shows an increasing trend significant at 0.05 level and the annual change ranging from +0.01 to +0.05 pH‐units per year for the different clusters obtained. The second objective is to examine the spatial variability of pH in precipitation through the use of principal component analysis. Six statistically significant modes of variability are obtained for the pH which represent the 84.5% of the total variance.     

作物产量决定因子分析

应用主成分分析,将影响水稻产量的一系列因子概括为四个主要因子:(1)土壤肥力因子,(2)栽插措施因子,(3)田间管理因子;(4)产量性状因子。将上述因子作为自变量,水稻产量作为因变量,进行逐步回归分析,得到一个产量预测模型(R=0.962)。根据各变量的回归系数大小,可以得到产量决定因子对产量影响的大小顺序为,田间管理因子>土壤肥力因子。栽插措施因子和产量性状因子对水稻产量的影响未达显著水平。 文中所述的分析方法适用于在不同的土壤条件下预测作物产量的潜在变化。     

Chemometrical analysis and quality control of pot water and its sources from Athens,Greece

The present study describes a chemometrical interpretation of a large data set from pot water quality control results. Sixteen chemical and physicochemical parameters constantly checked throughout the year were involved in the classification procedure. The data originate from seventeen sampling stations (pot water sources and pot water purification stations) and were collected in the period January ‐December 1993. Mean values for two months periods were introduced to the chemometrical procedure, so finally a data set 101x16 was formed. Additionally, quality control requirements of the European Union for pot water were added to the set to form an information input matrix of 103x16 elements. Hierarchical and non‐hierarchical clustering procedures were applied in order to reveal the internal structure of the data set. Some interesting conclusions like special water quality of lake Mornos, possibility of quality monitoring with lesser number of components etc., concerning the quality and stability of the pot water sources and quality characteristics of the samples are made.     

系统聚类分析在农户生态系统类型划分中的应用

应用主成分分析法和系统聚类分析法，对湖北省京山县刘家岭村５０个农户进行了生态系统类型数值分类分析，结果表明，该村农户生态系统可分为农－牧业型、果－农－牧业型和渔－农－牧业型三类，与全村３３８个农户情况相符。