STOCHASTIC WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS USING RELIABILITY METHOD1

ABSTRACT: This study developed a QUAL2E‐Reliability Analysis (QUAL2E‐RA) model for the stochastic water quality analysis of the downstream reach of the main Han River in Korea. The proposed model is based on the QUAL2E model and incorporates the Advanced First‐Order Second‐Moment (AFOSM) and Mean‐Value First‐Order Second‐Moment (MFOSM) methods. After the hydraulic characteristics from standard step method are identified, the optimal reaction coefficients are then estimated using the Broyden‐Fletcher‐Goldfarb‐Shanno (BFGS) method. Considering variations in river discharges, pollutant loads from tributaries, and reaction coefficients, the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards at several locations in the river were computed from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods, and the results were compared with those from the Monte Carlo method. The statistics of the three uncertainty analysis methods show that the outputs from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. From a practical model selection perspective, the MFOSM method is more attractive in terms of its computational simplicity and execution time.     

SITING OF A WATER POLLUTION CONTROL FACILITY AT JAMESTOWN,RHODE ISLAND1

ABSTRACT: The town of Jamestown, Rhode Island, located on Conanicut Island in Narragansett Bay, is constructing a secondary treatment plant in order to comply with NPDES regulations. Twelve candidate sites for the plant and marine outfall were initially proposed, and ability to meet State water quality standards at these sites was evaluated using an EPA buoyant plume model. A final outfall site, Taylor Point, was selected by the Town from among the sites considered acceptable. Taylor Point was then subjected to field hydrographic studies including drogue tracking, current recordings, and tracer dye surveys. Results of the measurement program served as input to a two-dimensional effluent dispersion model which predicted excess BOD, coliform, and suspended solids resulting from effluent discharge off Taylor Point. The model predictions demonstrated that State water quality standards can be maintained outside the initial discharge plume.     

污水海洋处置等截面扩散器水力特性的研究

本文就污水海洋处置中等截面扩散器的水力分配问题,结合上海市污水排海工程实际进行了模型试验,并在建立的水力特性模式基础上对排放口局部阻力系数进行了分析率定,经检验与试验其他结果相吻合,说明采用的模式是可行的,对同类研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of agro-ecological modeling for saffron plant cultivation using GIS spatial decision-making methods

The main objective of this research is to model the uncertainty associated with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for crop suitability assessment. To achieve this goal, an integrated approach using GIS-MCDA in association with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) were applied for Saffron suitability mapping in East-Azerbaijan Province in Iran. The results of this study indicated that integration of MCDA with MCS and GSA could improve modeling precision by reducing data variance. Results indicated that applying the MCS method using the local training data leads to computing the spatial correlation between criteria weights and characteristics of the study area. Results of the GSA method also allow us to obtain the priority of criteria and identify the most important criteria and the variability of outputs under uncertainty conditions for model inputs. The findings showed that, commonly used primary zoning methods, without considering the interaction effects of variables, had significant errors and uncertainty in the output of MCDA-based suitability models, which should be minimized by the advanced complementarity of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.     

Simplified DO sag models for rapid BOD removal

Predictive models for dissolved oxygen deficit have been developed based on an exponential form of expression for the equivalent linear removal of the settleable component of biochemical oxygen demand. These models are more convenient to use than other models because they are applicable for any distance from the outfall and for point and non-point wastewater discharge conditions.     

WASTE WATER DISPOSAL THROUGH A COASTAL AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Feasibility of disposing treated sewage in wells sunk into a partially confined coastal limestone aquifer at Waimanalo in the island of Oahu was investigated using an electric analog model. Electric analog modeling was preferred over digital modeling because of ease with which tides could be generated at the ocean boundary in the form of sinusoidal waves. The results of model operation showed that high permeability, low storativity, and the presence of ocean render the Waimanalo aquifer highly suitable for the disposal of waste water in deep wells. Since the quality of water in the aquifer is already unsuitable for municipal, industrial, or agricultural use, waste water injection will not result in any loss of fresh water supply source to the island. It is also believed that the cost of waste water disposal through the aquifer will be considerably less than that through an ocean outfall. During model development it was discovered that electric analog models can help prepare certain graphs which can be useful for aquifer analysis without any further use of the model.     

Uncertainty Analysis In Dissolved Oxygen Modeling in Streams

Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter–Phelps prototype model. Basic uncertainty in the input parameters is considered by representing them as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. Results obtained from FORM analysis compared well with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis also presents the stochastic sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome in the form of uncertainty importance factors, and shows how they change with changing simulation time. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the effect of selection of different probability distribution functions for the three most important parameters on the design point, exceedance probability, and importance factors. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS OF THE HALIFAX RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An application of the receiving water block of the EPA Storm Water management Model (SWMM) is presented to quantify water quality impacts and evaluated control alternatives for a 208 areawide waste water management plan in Volusia Country, Florida. The water quality impact analyses were conducted for dry-and wet-weather conditions to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorides, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Halifax Rivers, Florida, a 40-kilometer-long tidal estuary located on the Atlantic coast of Florida near Daytona Beach. Dry-weather analysis was performed using conventional 7-day, 10-year low flow conditions to determine a set of unit transfer coefficients which estimate the pollutant concentration transferred to any point in the estuary from a constant unit discharge of pollutants at the existing waste water treatment plant outfall locations. Wet-weather analysis was performed by continuous simulation of a typical three-month summer wet season in Florida. Three-month cumulative duration curves of DO, TN and TP concentrations were constructed to estimate the relative value of controlling urban runoff of waste water treatment plant effluent on the Halifax River. The three-month continuous simulation indicated that the greatest change in DO, TN, and TP duration curves is possible by abatement of waste water treatment plant pollution.     

DISTRIBUTED DISCHARGE OF COOLING WATER ALONG DIRECTION OF STREAM FLOW1

ABSTRACT. A multiple-outfall system for cooling water disposal which is distributed along the direction of stream flow is analyzed. The results provide a simple method of preliminary design of a cooling water discharge outfall system and for a quick extimate of water quality of a polluted stream. It is shown that a properly designed distributed discharge system is capable of preventing serious pollution due to localized discharge of wastes and waste heat; however, the final design of the discharge system should take into account alternative schemes of waste heat disposal and their economic consequences.     

海洋环境腐蚀模拟试验装置的优化设计与研制

本文介绍了基于GB/T 19746—2005/ISO 11130:1999等材料腐蚀性能试验标准的试验装置设计要求以及试验装置的主要组成。重点是添加了温度控制系统,优化了潮差控制系统,模拟了海洋波浪。本试验装置是一种结构简单、能够较真实模拟海洋环境腐蚀的试验装置。该试验装置研制成功,为研究海洋用材料的腐蚀行为与机理提供重要的技术设备支持。     

Nutrient and Phytoplankton Analysis of a Mediterranean Coastal Area

Identifying and quantifying the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources are essential to adopting management measures that can target input for maximum effect in controlling the phytoplankton biomass. In this study, three systems characterized by distinctive main nutrient sources were sampled along a Mediterranean coast transect. These sources were groundwater discharge in the Ahuir area, the Serpis river discharge in the Venecia area, and a submarine wastewater outfall 1,900 m from the coast. The study area includes factors considered important in determining a coastal area as a sensitive area: it has significant nutrient sources, tourism is a major source of income in the region, and it includes an area of high water residence time (Venecia area) which is affected by the harbor facilities and by wastewater discharges. We found that in the Ahuir and the submarine wastewater outfall areas, the effects of freshwater inputs were reduced because of a greater water exchange with the oligotrophic Mediterranean waters. On the other hand, in the Venecia area, the highest levels of nutrient concentration and phytoplankton biomass were attributed to the greatest water residence time. In this enclosed area, harmful dinoflagellates were detected (Alexandrium sp. and Dinophysis caudata). If the planned enlargement of the Gandia Harbor proceeds, it may increase the vulnerability of this system and provide the proper conditions of confinement for the dinoflagellate blooms’ development. Management measures should first target phosphorus inputs as this is the most potential-limiting nutrient in the Venecia area and comes from a point source that is easier to control. Finally, we recommend that harbor environmental management plans include regular monitoring of water quality in adjacent waters to identify adverse phytoplankton community changes.     

土壤石油污染环境容量的评估与模拟研究

文章基于对某滨海油区环境和生态进行调研分析的结果,选择一般参数法、综合估值法和数值模拟法三种方法对土壤石油污染的环境容量进行评估和模拟研究。研究分析了污染物在土壤中的时空分布,预测分析污染物迁移趋势和范围,综合探讨了研究区土壤石油污染的环境容量,可为制订有关环境标准和加强土壤石油烃排放管理提供技术依据和参考。     

EFFECTS OF LIME-SLUDGE DISCHARGE ON AN ARCTIC RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Fairbanks Water Treatment Plant in Fairbanks, Alaska, processes approximately 3 MGD of drinking water using lime softening. Approximately 0.3 MGD of lime-sludge from the treatment process is combined with effluent from a nearby power plant and discharged to the Chena River. There is little information available on the impact of water-treatment sludge discharges, and virtually no information on the impacts of such discharges in polar environments. Concern surrounding the discharge of water treatment sludges have centered on alum-sludge due to the potential toxic effects of aluminum. Because of the relatively benign composition of lime-sludge, very little research has been published. However, there is the possibility that discharge of solids will result in sedimentation, accumulation of solids, and subsequent impacts on benthic organisms. This paper reports on the results of a study to determine if lime-sludge discharge from the water treatment plant is adversely impacting the river environment. The results provide basic information on the important variables of concern in lime-discharges to rivers. Samples from the discharge of the water treatment plant and combined water treatment plant/power plant effluent were collected weekly over a one-year period, and in-stream benthic and water column samples were collected biweekly during the fall and spring. Sediment and water quality data indicate that while significant accumulation of sludge solids is found downstream of the water treatment plant outfall, they are flushed out of the system by spring flows, which are significantly increased by snow melt. This process is most likely repeated on a yearly cycle. Hence, the data suggest that the FMUS water treatment plant's discharge of lime-sludge is probably not adversely impacting the river. More generally, this may indicate that the natural flow variations and sediment-laden characteristics of Arctic, glacier-fed rivers may assimilate large quantities of nonputrescible solids without significant changes in the natural river environment. Further research in this area is required to verify this conclusion.     

HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF DISCHARGE SUSTAINABILITY FROM AN ABANDONED UNDERGROUND COAL MINE1

ABSTRACT: Discharge from flooded abandoned subsurface coal mines is considered a potential source for water supplies where other acceptable water sources are not available. The objective of this study was to develop procedures for determining sustainability of mine‐water discharge using rainfall and discharge data for a case study site. The study site is located in southwest Virginia where Late Paleozoic sequences of sandstone, coal, and shale predominate. A rain gauge and a flow rate monitoring system were installed at the site and data were collected for a period of 100 days. The recording period corresponded with one of the driest periods in recent years and, therefore, provided valuable information regarding the flow sustainability during baseflow conditions. From available data on underground mining patterns, geology, and ground water flow regimes, it was determined that a coal mine aquifer exhibits hydraulic characteristics very similar to the extremely heterogeneous systems observed in karst aquifers, and the mine discharge is analogous to springflow. Thus, techniques commonly used in karst‐water systems and springflow analysis were used to develop rainfall/mine‐discharge relationships. Springflow recession analysis was performed on five rainfall recessions and the coefficient for each recession was compared and interpreted in light of known geologic information. It was found that the recession coefficients described the mine discharge adequately and the mine aquifer response to a rainfall pulse was very similar to the response from certain types of karst aquifers. A cross‐correlation analysis was performed to verify the results of the recession analysis and to develop a “black box” statistical model for discharge data. The correlation analysis proved the validity of springflow recession analysis for mine discharge. The recorded data length was not adequate to create a statistical model, however, but a procedure was proposed for a statistical model that could be used with large flow records. For the study site, the mine discharge was found to be sustainable for a prolonged period of time.     

TMDL中MOS的定量估算方法及其应用

为了分析TMDL水污染控制管理模式中安全临界值MOS的影响因素,采用FOEA法对MOS中模拟计算的不确定性进行定量估算,通过不同水质达标率条件下MOS的设定,探讨水环境管理中不确定性因素对MOS的影响;将TMDL应用于珠江三角洲佛山水道的水环境管理中,运用动态水环境数学模型、考虑潮周期达标率的环境容量优化模型及遗传算法对TMDL进行求解.研究结果表明,所采用的FOEA法能较为准确地反映模型的不确定性对MOS的影响,而且从水质达标率的角度出发能合理地考察环境管理中的不确定性因素对MOS的影响,为定量化探讨MOS的设定给出了可行的求解思路及方法.     

EFFECT OF WATER QUALITY STANDARDS ON FARM INCOME,RISK, AND NPS POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Enforceable standards play a crucial role in the design and implementation of most water quality policies. The impacts of these standards on farm income and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution can provide valuable information to develop economic policies that can improve water quality with minimal loss in income and minimal risk. This study uses an integration of nonlinear programming and a simulation model to assess the impacts of enforceable standards at technology and farm boundary levels. The results indicate that the type of pollutant regulated, enforcement type, and the level of standard had a significant impact on farm income and water quality. Choice of farm boundary standards over technology standards is dependent on the impact of the policy on other NPS pollutants, in addition to the reduction of nitrate and phosphorus pollutants. Enforcing farm boundary standards on nitrates had desirable effects on subsurface and percolate nitrogen and variance in income. Technology standards were uncertain in their effects because of the restriction on the choice of technologies available to farmers. A comparative policy analysis considering incentives, multiple impacts, transaction costs of implementation, and regional consideration is important to an effective policy design.     

Managing the cooling capacity of the upper rhine: A case study

In most industrialized countries, environmental standards exist which prescribe the maximum allowable man-made increase in water temperature of a river. Together with flowrate and weather conditions, these standards determine the rate at which waste heat may be discharged into a river at any moment. Power generating stations with variable cooling systems can adjust their heat discharge into the river in compliance with environmental standards and by doing so exert an influence on power generation capacity. In this paper, a scheme is developed that allows a chain of power stations discharging into the same river to operate their cooling systems such that the output of total electricity is maximized and water temperature standards are accomodated. The optimum balance between stations is determined through dynamic programming. From the results of a simulation model using historical data, simple decision rules for day-to-day operation are abstracted. These rules are based solely on the river flow rates at each power station.     

Review of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in coastal zones of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions of the United States with management implications

Groundwater serves as the primary drinking water source for over half of the coastal populations of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions, two of the fastest growing regions in the United States. Increased demand for this resource has exceeded sustainable yields in many areas and induced saltwater intrusion of coastal aquifers. A process associated with coastal groundwater, submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), has been documented as a source of subsurface fluids to coastal ocean environments throughout the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions and is potentially a significant contributor to nearshore water and geochemical budgets (i.e., nutrients, carbon, trace metals) in many coastal regions. The importance of groundwater as a drinking water source for coastal populations and the influences of submarine groundwater discharge to the coastal ocean warrant increased research and management of this resource. This paper highlights findings from recent SGD studies on three hydrogeologically different continental margins (Onslow Bay, NC, southern Florida, and the Louisiana margin), provides background on the common methods of assessing SGD, and suggests a regional management plan for coastal groundwater resources. Suggested strategies call for assessments of SGD in areas of potentially significant discharge, development of new monitoring networks, and the incorporation of a regional coastal groundwater resources council.     

Prediction of groundwater contamination with multivariate regression and probabilistic capture zones

Probabilistic capture zones are combined with a regression model and used as buffer zones around wells for Tobit regression analysis to predict contaminant concentration of groundwater in an agricultural region. A backward transport equation, which is a mathematical model based on the physical processes of solute transport, is used to delineate probabilistic capture zones. The probabilistic capture zone defines the area where contaminant discharge can have a direct influence, with pertinent probability, on the quality of groundwater pumped from a well. Tobit regression analysis is used to find the relationship between independent regression variables and a dependent variable, which is contaminant concentration in this study. The capture zone and the regression are combined into a model, and its applicability for prediction of nitrate concentration is tested in a small agricultural basin in Chuncheon, Korea, which is occupied mainly by vegetation fields, orchards, and small barns. Three cases of Model 1, Model 2, and Model 3 are compared in which buffer zones are circles, capture zones with probability over 0.1, and capture zones divided into sections with different probabilities, respectively. The resulting regression model describes nitrate concentration in terms of selected independent variables. When the concentrations are calculated with the model, the best fit with the observed concentrations was in Model 3. This result supports the applicability of the method proposed in this study to prediction of contaminant concentration of groundwater.