Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NO_x and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NO_x and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NO_x and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NO_y, O₃/NO_z, HCHO/NO_y, and H₂O₂/HNO₃ on the definition of NO_x and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O₃/NO_z and HCHO/NO_y indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NO_x and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NO_y and H₂O₂/HNO₃ provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work.     

Comparisons of WRF/Chem simulated O3 concentrations in Mexico City with ground-based RAMA measurements during the MILAGRO period

This work compares the WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting – Chemistry) simulated O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) with measurements from the ground-based RAMA network during the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) period. The model resolves the observations reasonably well in terms of diurnal cycle and mean magnitude as reflected by high correlation coefficients and low root-mean-square errors. Stations located in the center of the MCMA generally exhibit higher correlation coefficients and lower model biases than those stations located in the peripheral of the MCMA. Large temporal variations in the observed and simulated O₃ concentrations are noted from station to station during the MILAGRO period. Sensitivity analyses of O₃ concentrations to changes in NO_x and VOC emissions rates suggest that O₃ production in the MCMA is VOC-sensitive, and VOC-emissions reduction appears to be an effective strategy for reducing high surface O₃ concentrations in the MCMA.     

In situ measurements of HNO3, NOy,NO, and O3 in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

In situ measurements of nitric acid (HNO₃), reactive nitrogen (NO_y), nitric oxide (NO), and ozone (O₃) made in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) between 29° and 33°N latitudes during September 1999 are used to examine NO_y partitioning and correlations between the measured species in these regions. The fast-response (1 s) HNO₃ measurements are acquired with a new autonomous CIMS instrument. In the LS, HNO₃ accounts for the majority of NO_y, and the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x accounts for approximately 90% of NO_y. In the UT, the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x varies between 40% and 100% of NO_y. Both HNO₃ and NO_y are strongly positively correlated with O₃, with larger correlation slopes in the UT than in the LS. In the UT at low values of the quantity (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃), it is uncorrelated with O₃, while at higher values, a positive correlation with O₃ is found. Of these two air mass types, those with higher (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃) mixing ratios are likely associated with the presence of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) that is produced by NO_x-hydrocarbon chemistry.     

Summertime photochemical ozone formation in Santiago,Chile

The city of Santiago, Chile experiences frequent high pollution episodes and as a consequence very high ozone concentrations, which are associated with health problems including increasing daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. The development of ozone abatement strategies requires the determination of the potential of each pollutant to produce ozone, taking into account known mechanisms and chemical kinetics in addition to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, the photochemical formation of ozone during a summer campaign carried out from March 8–20, 2005 has been investigated using an urban photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). The MCM box model has been constrained with 10 min averages of simultaneous measurements of HONO, HCHO, CO, NO, j(O¹D), j(NO₂), 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and meteorological parameters. The O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivities have been determined by simulating ozone formation at different VOC and NO_x concentrations. Ozone sensitivity analyses showed that photochemical ozone formation is VOC-limited under average summertime conditions in Santiago. The results of the model simulations have been compared with a set of potential empirical indicator relationships including H₂O₂/HNO₃, HCHO/NO_y and O₃/NO_z. The ozone forming potential of each measured VOC has been determined using the MCM box model. The impacts of the above study on possible summertime ozone control strategies in Santiago are discussed.     

Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study

Sensitivity of ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Mexico City area to diurnal variations of surface air pollutant emissions is investigated using the WRF/Chem model. Our analysis shows that diurnal variations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions play an important role in controlling the O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City area. The contributions of NO_x and VOC emissions to daytime O₃ concentrations are very sensitive to the morning emissions of NO_x and VOCs. Increase in morning NO_x emissions leads to decrease in daytime O₃ concentrations as well as the afternoon O₃ maximum, while increase in morning VOC emissions tends to increase in O₃ concentrations in late morning and early afternoon, indicating that O₃ production in Mexico City is under VOC-limited regime. It is also found that the nighttime O₃ is independent of VOCs, but is sensitive to NO_x. The emissions of VOCs during other periods (early morning, evening, and night) have only small impacts on O₃ concentrations, while the emissions of NO_x have important impacts on O₃ concentrations in the evening and the early morning.This study suggests that shifting emission pattern, while keeping the total emissions unchanged, has important impacts on air quality. For example, delaying the morning emission peak from 8 am to 10 am significantly reduced the morning peaks of NO_x and VOCs, as well as the afternoon O₃ maxima. It suggests that without reduction of total emission, the daytime O₃ concentrations can be significantly reduced by changing the diurnal variations of the emissions of O₃ precursors.     

Evolution of the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of the Weekend Ozone Effect in California’s South Coast Air Basin, 1981–2000

Abstract

Since the mid-1970s, ozone (O₃) levels in portions of California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) on weekends have been as high as or higher than levels on weekdays, even though emissions of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends. Analysis of the ambient data indicates that the intensity and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect are correlated with day-of-week variations in the extent of O₃ inhibition caused by titration with nitric oxide (NO), reaction of hydroxyl radical (OH) with nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and rates of O₃ accumulation. Lower NO mixing ratios and higher NO₂/oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) ratios on weekend mornings allow O₃ to begin accumulating approximately an hour earlier on weekends. The weekday/weekend differences in the duration of O₃ accumulation remained relatively constant from 1981 to 2000. In contrast, the rate of O₃ accumulation decreased by one-third to one-half over the same period; the largest reductions occurred in the central basin on weekdays. Trends in mixing ratios of O₃ precursors show a transition to lower volatile organic compound (VOC)/NO_x ratios caused by greater reductions in VOC emissions. Reductions in VOC/NO_x ratios were greater on weekdays, resulting in higher VOC/NO_x ratios on weekends relative to weekdays. Trends in VOC/NO_x ratios parallel the downward trend in peak O₃ levels, a shift in the location of peak O₃ from the central to the eastern portion of the basin, and an increase in the magnitude and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect.     

Effects of uncertainty in the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide on model-simulated ozone control strategies

We evaluated the effect of a 20% reduction in the rate constant of the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide to produce nitric acid (OH+NO₂→HNO₃) on model predictions of ozone mixing ratios ([O₃]) and the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) for reducing [O₃]. By comparing a model simulation with the new rate constant to a base case scenario, we found that the [O₃] increase was between 2 and 6% for typical rural conditions and between 6 and 16% for typical urban conditions. The increases in [O₃] were less than proportional to the reduction in the OH+NO₂ rate constant because of negative feedbacks in the photochemical mechanism. Next, we used two different approaches to evaluate how the new OH+NO₂ rate constant changed the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of VOC and NO_x: first, we evaluated the effect on [O₃] sensitivity to small changes in emissions of VOC (d[O₃]/dE_VOC) and NO_x (d[O₃]/dE_NOx); and secondly, we used the empirical kinetic modeling approach to evaluate the effect on the level of emissions reduction necessary to reduce [O₃] to a specified level. Both methods showed that reducing the OH+NO₂ rate constant caused control strategies for VOC to become less effective relative to NO_x control strategies. We found, however, that d[O₃]/dE_VOC and d[O₃]/dE_NOx did not quantitatively predict the magnitude of the change in the control strategy because the [O₃] response was nonlinear with respect to the size of the emissions reduction. We conclude that model sensitivity analyses calculated using small emissions changes do not accurately characterize the effect of uncertainty in model inputs (in this case, the OH+NO₂ rate constant) on O₃ attainment strategies. Instead, the effects of changes in model inputs should be studied using large changes in precursor emissions to approximate realistic attainment scenarios.     

Satellite observations of Mexico City pollution outflow from the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES)

Concurrent tropospheric O₃ and CO vertical profiles from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) during the MILAGRO/INTEX-B aircraft campaigns over the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) and its surrounding regions were used to examine Mexico City pollution outflow on a regional scale. The pollution outflow from the MCMA occurred predominantly at 600–800 hPa as evident in O₃, CO, and NO_x enhancements in the in situ aircraft observations. TES O₃ and CO are sensitive to the MCMA pollution outflow due to their relatively high sensitivities at 600–800 hPa. We examined O₃, CO, and their correlation at 600–800 hPa from TES retrievals, aircraft measurements, and GEOS-Chem model results. TES captures much of the spatial and day-to-day variability of O₃ seen in the in situ data. TES CO, however, shows much less spatial and day-to-day variability compared with the in situ observations. The ΔO₃/ΔCO slope is significantly higher in the TES data (0.43) than the in situ data (0.28) due partly to the lack of variability in TES CO. Extraordinarily high ΔO₃/ΔCO slope (0.81) from TES observations at 618 hPa over the Eastern U.S. was previously reported by Zhang et al. [Zhang, L., Jacob, D.J., Bowman, K.W., et al., 2006. Ozone–CO correlations determined by the TES satellite instrument in continental outflow regions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18804. 10.1029/2006GL026399.]. Thus the application of TES CO–O₃ correlation to map continental pollution outflow needs further examination.     

The Clean Air Act Amendments and Motor Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance

Seventeen days of detailed measurements of NO, NO₂, O₃, HNO₃ and the frequency of NO₂ photolysis—j(NO₂)—were carried out in Claremont, CA, in September 1980. Under conditions when the rate of change of NO concentration is small, there must be a balance between formation and loss processes. In the classical photostationary state this balance is between NO₂ photolysis: NO₂ + hv → NO + O and reaction with ozone: NO + O₃ → NO₂ + O₂. The results show that the latter reaction with ozone is inadequate to balance the formation step; a significant contribution is required from another NO oxidation process, possibly peroxy radical oxidation. If so, the inferred concentration of peroxy radicals shows a diurnal variation, peaking around solar noon.     

The use of ambient data to corroborate analyses of ozone control strategies

Data from environmental-chamber studies and photochemical box-model simulations were used to evaluate and revise a method for developing a qualitative understanding of the sensitivity of ozone formation at a particular time and place to changes in concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The revised method requires measurements of ozone, NO, and either NO_x or NO_y. The sensitivities of the method to biases in measurements were evaluated. The method potentially can be used for qualitative assessment of VOC versus NO_x limitation, comparison with the predictions of grid-based photochemical air-quality models, and evaluation of trends over time in the relative effectiveness of VOC versus NO_x controls.     

Characterizations of chemical oxidants in Mexico City: A regional chemical dynamical model (WRF-Chem) study

The formation of chemical oxidants, particularly ozone, in Mexico City were studied using a newly developed regional chemical/dynamical model (WRF-Chem). The magnitude and timing of simulated diurnal cycles of ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x)_, and the maximum and minimum O₃ concentrations are generally consistent with surface measurements. Our analysis shows that the strong diurnal cycle in O₃ is mainly attributable to photochemical variations, while diurnal cycles of CO and NO_x mainly result from variations of emissions and boundary layer height. In a sensitivity study, oxidation reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons (HCs) and alkenes yield highest peak O₃ production rates (20 and 18 ppbv h⁻¹, respectively). Alkene oxidations, which are generally faster, dominate in early morning. By late morning, alkene concentrations drop, and oxidations of aromatics dominate, with lesser contributions from alkanes and CO. The sensitivity of O₃ concentrations to NO_x and HC emissions was assessed. Our results show that daytime O₃ production is HC-limited in the Mexico City metropolitan area, so that increases in HC emissions increase O₃ chemical production, while increases in NO_x emissions decrease O₃ concentrations. However, increases in both NO_x and HC emissions yield even greater O₃ increases than increases in HCs alone. Uncertainties in HC emissions estimates give large uncertainties in calculated daytime O₃, while NO_x emissions uncertainties are less influential. However, NO_x emissions are important in controlling O₃ at night.     

Distribution of reactive nitrogen species in the remote free troposphere: data and model comparisons

The available reactive nitrogen measurements from the global free troposphere obtained during the period of 1985–1995 have been compiled and analyzed. The species of interest are NO, NO_x (NO+NO₂), NO_y, PAN, HNO₃ and O₃. Data extending to 13 km have been gridded with a 5°×5° horizontal and 1 km vertical resolution. The data have been divided into two seasons, namely “Winter” and “Summer” depending upon the time and location of the observations. Data described here as well as additional analysis have also been archived and are accessible on-line through the World Wide Web at: http://george.arc.nasa.gov/∼athakur. Global maps of the reactive nitrogen species distribution are produced in a form that would be most useful for the test and evaluation of models of tropospheric transport and chemistry. Limited comparisons of the observed reactive nitrogen species data with predictions by 3-D global models were performed using three selected models. Significant model to model as well as data to model differences were frequently observed. During summer, models tended to underpredict NO (−25 to −60%) while significantly overpredicting HNO₃ (+250 to +400%) especially in the upper troposphere. Similarly, the seasonal HNO₃ variations predicted by some models were opposite to those observed. PAN was generally overpredicted, especially in the upper troposphere, while NO_y was underpredicted. Ozone on average was better simulated but significant deviations at specific locations were evident. By comparing model predictions with observations, an overall quantitative assessment of the accuracy with which these three models describe the global distribution of measured reactive nitrogen species is provided. No reliable trend information for any of the reactive nitrogen species was possible based on the presently available data set. The reactive nitrogen data currently offer only a limited spatial and temporal coverage for the validation of global models.     

Ozone response to precursor controls: comparison of data analysis methods with the predictions of photochemical air quality simulation models

Comparisons were made between the predictions of six photochemical air quality simulation models (PAQSMs) and three indicators of ozone response to emission reductions: the ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y and the extent of reaction. The values of the two indicator ratios and the extent of reaction were computed from the model-predicted mixing ratios of ozone and oxidized nitrogen species and were compared to the changes in peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios predicted by the PAQSMs. The ozone changes were determined from the ozone levels predicted for base-case emission levels and for reduced emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). For all simulations, the model-predicted responses of peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios to VOC or NO_x emission reductions were correlated with the base-case extent of reaction and ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y. Peak ozone values increased following NO_x control in 95% (median over all simulations) of the high-ozone (>80 ppbv hourly mixing ratio in the base-case) grid cells having mean afternoon O₃/NO_z ratios less than 5 : 1, O₃/NO_y less than 4 : 1, or extent less than 0.6. Peak ozone levels decreased in response to NO_x reductions in 95% (median over all simulations) of the grid cells having peak hourly ozone mixing ratios greater than 80 ppbv and where mean afternoon O₃/NO_z exceeded 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was greater than 8 : 1, or extent exceeded 0.8. Ozone responses varied in grid cells where O₃/NO_z was between 5 : 1 and 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was between 4 : 1 and 8 : 1, or extent was between 0.6 and 0.8. The responses in such grid cells were affected by ozone responses in upwind grid cells and by the changes in ozone levels along the upwind boundaries of the modeling domains.     

Atmospheric oxidation capacity in the summer of Houston 2006: Comparison with summer measurements in other metropolitan studies

Both similarities and differences in summertime atmospheric photochemical oxidation appear in the comparison of four field studies: TEXAQS2000 (Houston, 2000), NYC2001 (New York City, 2001), MCMA2003 (Mexico City, 2003), and TRAMP2006 (Houston, 2006). The compared photochemical indicators are OH and HO₂ abundances, OH reactivity (the inverse of the OH lifetime), HO_x budget, OH chain length (ratio of OH cycling to OH loss), calculated ozone production, and ozone sensitivity. In terms of photochemical activity, Houston is much more like Mexico City than New York City. These relationships result from the ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to nitrogen oxides (NO_x), which are comparable in Houston and Mexico City, but much lower in New York City. Compared to New York City, Houston and Mexico City also have higher levels of OH and HO₂, longer OH chain lengths, a smaller contribution of reactions with NO_x to the OH reactivity, and NO_x-sensitivity for ozone production during the day. In all four studies, the photolysis of nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are significant, if not dominant, HO_x sources. A problematic result in all four studies is the greater OH production than OH loss during morning rush hour, even though OH production and loss are expected to always be in balance because of the short OH lifetime. The cause of this discrepancy is not understood, but may be related to the under-predicted HO₂ in high NO_x conditions, which could have implications for ozone production. Three photochemical indicators show particularly high photochemical activity in Houston during the TRAMP2006 study: the long portion of the day for which ozone production was NO_x-sensitive, the calculated ozone production rate that was second only to Mexico City's, and the OH chain length that was twice that of any other location. These results on photochemical activity provide additional support for regulatory actions to reduce reactive VOCs in Houston in order to reduce ozone and other pollutants.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.     

Effect of Liquefied Petroleum Gas on Ozone Formation in Guadalajara and Mexico City

Abstract

Leakages of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are suspected to contribute greatly to ozone (O₃) formation in Mexico City. We tested such a hypothesis by outdoor captive-air irradiation (CAI) experiments in the two largest Mexican metropolitan areas: Guadalajara (GMA) in 1997 and Mexico City (MCMA) in 2000. O₃ was monitored in each city for 20 days (8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m.) in smog chambers containing unaltered morning air or morning air enriched with either commercial LPG or LPG synthetic mixture 60/40 (propane and butane). Tested additions of both components were 35% (by volume) in GMA and 60% (by volume) in MCMA. The addition effects on O₃ (max) were compared with effects from diluting LPG components or total nonmethane hydrocarbons (tNMHCs) by 50%. Diluting tNMHCs had the greatest absolute effect at both cities: it lowered O₃ (max) by 24% in GMA and 55% in MCMA. Adding commercial LPG increased O₃ (max) by 6% in GMA and 28% in MCMA; whereas adding LPG synthetic mixture 60/40 caused a similar increase in O₃ (max), 4 and 21% in GMA and MCMA, respectively. Compared with dilution of tNMHCs, dilution of LPG-associated compounds had a smaller decreasing effect on O₃ (max), only 4% in GMA and 15% in MCMA. These results show that commercial LPG and LPG synthetic mixture 60/40 affect O₃ formation to a lesser extent than estimated previously.     

Composition and secondary formation of fine particulate matter in the Salt Lake Valley: Winter 2009

Under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), put in place as a result of the Clean Air Amendments of 1990, three regions in the state of Utah are in violation of the NAAQS for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 (Salt Lake County, Ogden City, and Utah County). These regions are susceptible to strong inversions that can persist for days to weeks. This meteorology, coupled with the metropolitan nature of these regions, contributes to its violation of the NAAQS for PM during the winter. During January–February 2009, 1-hr averaged concentrations of PM_10-2.5, PM_2.5, NO_x, NO₂, NO, O₃, CO, and NH₃ were measured. Particulate-phase nitrate, nitrite, and sulfate and gas-phase HONO, HNO₃, and SO₂ were also measured on a 1-hr average basis. The results indicate that ammonium nitrate averages 40% of the total PM_2.5 mass in the absence of inversions and up to 69% during strong inversions. Also, the formation of ammonium nitrate is nitric acid limited. Overall, the lower boundary layer in the Salt Lake Valley appears to be oxidant and volatile organic carbon (VOC) limited with respect to ozone formation. The most effective way to reduce ammonium nitrate secondary particle formation during the inversions period is to reduce NO_x emissions. However, a decrease in NO_x will increase ozone concentrations. A better definition of the complete ozone isopleths would better inform this decision.

Implications: Monitoring of air pollution constituents in Salt Lake City, UT, during periods in which PM_2.5 concentrations exceeded the NAAQS, reveals that secondary aerosol formation for this region is NO_x limited. Therefore, NO_x emissions should be targeted in order to reduce secondary particle formation and PM_2.5. Data also indicate that the highest concentrations of sulfur dioxide are associated with winds from the north-northwest, the location of several small refineries.     

The use of experimental data and their uncertainty for assessing ozone photochemistry in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

Observation-based methods are useful tools to explore the sensitivity of ozone concentrations to precursor controls. With the aim of assessing the ozone precursor sensitivity in two locations: Paterna (suburban) and Villar del Arzobispo (rural) of the Turia river basin in the east of Spain, the photochemical indicator O₃/NO_y and the Extent-of-Reaction (EOR) parameter have been calculated from field measurements. In Paterna, the O₃/NO_y ratio varied from 0 to 13 with an average value of 5.1 (SD 3.2), whereas the averaged value for the EOR was 0.43 (SD 0.14). In Villar del Arzobispo, the O₃/NO_y ratio changed from 5 to 30 with a mean value of 13.6 (SD 4.7) and the EOR gave an averaged value of 0.72 (SD 0.11). The results show two different patterns of ozone production as a function of the location. The suburban area shows a VOC-sensitive regime whereas the rural one shows a transition regime close to NO_x-sensitive conditions. No seasonal differences in these regimes are observed along the monitoring campaigns. Finally, an analysis of the influence of the measurement quality of NO_y, NO_x and O₃ on the uncertainty of the O₃/NO_y ratio and the EOR was performed showing that the uncertainty of O₃/NO_y is not dependent on either its value or the individual values of O₃ and NO_y but just on the quality of O₃ and NO_y measurements. The maximum uncertainty is 26% as long as the combined uncertainties of O₃ and NO_y remain below the 7.5%. The case of the EOR is different and its uncertainty depends on both the value of the EOR parameter and the individual concentration values of NO_y and NO_x. The uncertainty of the EOR estimation can be very high (>200%) if the combined uncertainties of both NO_y and NO_x are high (>7.5%), or especially, if u(NO_y) and u(NO_x) differ considerably from each other (>3.5%).     

Chemistry of HOx radicals in the upper troposphere

Aircraft observations from three recent missions (STRAT, SUCCESS, SONEX) are synthesized into a theoretical analysis of the factors controlling the concentrations of HO_x radicals (HO_x=OH+peroxy) and the larger reservoir family HO_y (HO_y=HO_x+2H₂O₂+2CH₃OOH+HNO₂+HNO₄) in the upper troposphere. Photochemical model calculations capture 66% of the variance of observed HO_x concentrations. Two master variables are found to determine the variance of the 24 h average HO_x concentrations: the primary HO_x production rate, P(HO_x), and the concentration of nitrogen oxide radicals (NO_x=NO+NO₂). We use these two variables as a coordinate system to diagnose the photochemistry of the upper troposphere and map the different chemical regimes. Primary HO_x production is dominated by the O(¹D)+H₂O reaction when [H₂O]>100 ppmv, and by photolysis of acetone (and possibly other convected HO_x precursors) under drier conditions. For the principally northern midlatitude conditions sampled by the aircraft missions, the HO_x yield from acetone photolysis ranges from 2 to 3. Methane oxidation amplifies the primary HO_x source by a factor of 1.1–1.9. Chemical cycling within the HO_x family has a chain length of 2.5–7, while cycling between the HO_x family and its HO_y reservoirs has a chain length of 1.6–2.2. The number of ozone molecules produced per HO_y molecule consumed ranges from 4 to 12, such that ozone production rates vary between 0.3 and 5 ppbv d⁻¹ in the upper troposphere. Three chemical regimes (NO_x-limited, transition, NO_x-saturated) are identified to describe the dependence of HO_x concentrations and ozone production rates on the two master variables P(HO_x) and [NO_x]. Simplified analytical expressions are derived to express these dependences as power laws for each regime. By applying an eigenlifetime analysis to the HO_x–NO_x–O₃ chemical system, we find that the decay of a perturbation to HO_y in the upper troposphere (as from deep convection) is represented by four dominant modes with the longest time scale being factors of 2–3 times longer than the steady-state lifetime of HO_y.