Air Pollution Emissions from Increased Industrial Coal Use in the Northeastern United States

Evaluating the air pollution impacts of energy use in the industrial sector is difficult because of the diversity and multiplicity of sources and a general lack of systematic, up-to-date data collection mechanisms. Fuel-specific energy consumption for a multi-state region is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy PIES model for a base year (1975), together with scenarios for future years. A computer model developed in this study—the Sub-regional Energy and Emissions Model (SEEM)—is applied to disaggregate the regional industrial figures to the county level according to fuel type and industrial category at the two-digit SIC level. The resulting emissions of total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) for all industrial categories are estimated at the county level by Incorporating county-specific air pollution regulations in SEEM, and are then aggregated to larger geographical regions. The model has been applied to evaluate the increased air pollution impacts of industrial energy use in the northeastern United States for two alternative 1990 scenarios: (1) the midrange/trendlong PIES projections, and (2) a Coal Replacement Scenario, which assumes a higher percentage of fuel burned in new boilers will be coal. The results are discussed in terms of implications for air pollution control policy.     

Potential Air Emission Impacts of Cellulosic Ethanol Production at Seven Demonstration Refineries in the United States

Abstract

This paper reports on the estimated potential air emissions, as found in air permits and supporting documentation, for seven of the first group of precommercial or “demonstration” cellulosic ethanol refineries (7CEDF) currently operating or planning to operate in the United States in the near future. These seven refineries are designed to produce from 330,000 to 100 million gal of ethanol per year. The overall average estimated air emission rates for criteria, hazardous, and greenhouse gas pollutants at the 7CEDF are shown here in terms of tons per year and pounds per gallon of ethanol produced. Water use rates estimated for the cellulosic ethanol refineries are also noted. The air emissions are then compared with similar estimates from a U.S. cellulosic ethanol pilot plant, a commercial Canadian cellulosic ethanol refinery, four commercial U.S. corn ethanol refineries, and U.S. petroleum refineries producing gasoline. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air pollution rules that may apply to cellulosic ethanol refineries are also discussed. Using the lowest estimated emission rates from these cellulosic ethanol demonstration facilities to project air emissions, EPA’s major source thresholds for criteria and hazardous air pollutants might not be exceeded by cellulosic ethanol refineries that produce as high as 25 million gal per year of ethanol (95 ML). Emissions are expected to decrease at cellulosic ethanol refineries as the process matures and becomes more commercially viable.     

Reproducibility of regional apportionments of pollution aerosol in the Northeastern United States

Regional apportionments of sulfate and Se in pollution aerosol have been reproduced to within 10% for winter and summer at Narragansett, RI, and for summer at Underhill, VT, over a 3-yr period. Agreement of observed variability of apportionments with earlier estimates of their uncertainties served to empirically confirm both error-propagation methods and original uncertainties assigned to regional signatures. Winter apportionments at Underhill were more variable because of systematic differences in meteorology.     

Particulate Air Pollution In the United States

A study was conducted to identify, characterize, and quantify the national particulate air pollution problem from stationary sources. Particulate emissions from stationary sources were determined from data on emission factors, grain loadings, and material balances. The principal method used for establishing the tonnage emitted by an industry utilized uncontrolled emission factors. Total tonnage emitted by a given industry was calculated from four quantities: (1) an emission factor for the uncontrolled source; (2) the total tonnage processed per year by the industry; (3) the efficiency of control equipment used; and (4) the percentage of production capacity equipped with control devices.

Particulate emissions from stationary sources in the United States currently total approximately 18 X 10⁶ ton/yr. The major stationary sources of particulates include electric power generation plants, the crushed stone industry, the forest products industry, agriculture and related operations, the cement industry, and the iron and steel industry.

Three methods were developed to project the total quantity of particulate pollutants emitted up to the year 2000. In making these forecasts, these factors were considered (1) changes in production capacity; (2) improvements in control devices; and (3) regulatory action to enforce installation of control equipment.

These forecasts indicate that particulate emissions can be reduced from the current level of 18 X 10⁶ ton/yr to 3 X 10⁶ ton/yr by 2000 based on the most optimistic forecast. The projections also suggest that major reductions of particulate matter will most likely occur by installation of control equipment on uncontrolled sources and by shifts to more efficient types of collection equipment on existing controlled sources.     

Estimation of Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations of Sulfate in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Daily atmospheric concentrations of sulfate collected at six locations in the northeastern United States are regressed against meteorological factors, ozone, seasonal cycles, and time in order to determine if a significant trend in sulfate can be detected. The data used in this analysis were collected during the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE, 1977-1978) and the Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS, 1988-1989). Ozone, specific humidity, and seasonal terms (reflecting the potential of the atmosphere for oxidation of sulfur dioxide) emerged as important explanatory variables. After accounting for the variability explained by environmental factors, the median estimated change in sulfate concentration from the six locations over the 11-year period is -22% (or -28% if ozone is not used as an explanatory variable). Although there are wide variations among locations, these changes are commensurate with an estimated 25% decline in sulfur emissions in the northeastern U.S. during the same period. These analyses provide insight into methods for detecting reductions in sulfate that may be expected to occur as a result of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Uncertainties in the estimates, with consideration of serial correlation in the data, imply a minimum detectable reduction of 10% using this modeling procedure with similar data availability.     

An evaluation of regional elemental signatures relevant to the Northeastern United States

Concentrations of sulfate and trace elements measured in high-volume air samples collected at sites in New York State during the summers of 1981, 1982 and 1983 are reported. The sites include Mayville in the westernmost corner of the state, West Haverstraw just north of the metropolitan New York area, and Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks. The elemental compositions of the aerosols at these sites are compared. The composition of regional aerosols is investigated using backward-in-time air trajectories to classify samples from Mayville and West Haverstraw into six regions: I, southern Ontario; II, Great Lakes; III, Ohio River Valley; IV, central Pennsylvania; V, western New York; and VI, East Coast urban. Region VI was characterized by high concentrations of V and Sb and relatively low concentrations of the other elements and sulfate. Region III had the highest concentrations of sulfate (28 μg m⁻³) and Se (5 ng m⁻³); both were around 7.5 times higher than for region VI. Crustal elements and bromine were comparable for all regions varying by a factor of two or less. Elemental ratios were explored as tracers for the various regions and the data are also used to test some of the basic assumptions in a proposed multi-element tracer system.     

Preliminary evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model for 2002 over the Southeastern United States

The Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) is one of five Regional Planning Organizations that is charged with the management of haze, visibility, and other regional air quality issues in the United States. The VISTAS Phase I work effort modeled three episodes (January 2002, July 1999, and July 2001) to identify the optimal model configuration(s) to be used for the 2002 annual modeling in Phase II. Using model configurations recommended in the Phase I analysis, 2002 annual meteorological (Mesoscale Meterological Model [MM5]), emissions (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions [SMOKE]), and air quality (Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ]) simulations were performed on a 36-km grid covering the continental United States and a 12-km grid covering the Eastern United States. Model estimates were then compared against observations. This paper presents the results of the preliminary CMAQ model performance evaluation for the initial 2002 annual base case simulation. Model performance is presented for the Eastern United States using speciated fine particle concentration and wet deposition measurements from several monitoring networks. Initial results indicate fairly good performance for sulfate with fractional bias values generally within +/-20%. Nitrate is overestimated in the winter by approximately +50% and underestimated in the summer by more than -100%. Organic carbon exhibits a large summer underestimation bias of approximately -100% with much improved performance seen in the winter with a bias near zero. Performance for elemental carbon is reasonable with fractional bias values within +/- 40%. Other fine particulate (soil) and coarse particular matter exhibit large (80-150%) overestimation in the winter but improved performance in the summer. The preliminary 2002 CMAQ runs identified several areas of enhancements to improve model performance, including revised temporal allocation factors for ammonia emissions to improve nitrate performance and addressing missing processes in the secondary organic aerosol module to improve OC performance.     

Air Pollution Control Training in Colleges and Universities in the United States

A nationwide survey of air pollution control training efforts in the United States at colleges and universities was ccrried out for the S-l 1 Education and Training Committee, Air Pollution Control Association. Information from 91 schools having four year or graduate programs and five community colleges was received.Questions include type of course work, backgrounds of participating faculty and students, and eventual placement. At the present time about 70% of those in training are graduate students. It was found that most students taking initial employment in air pollution control activities had the M.S. degree. Recommendations for updating this information are made.     

Large-Scale Weather Influences on Community Air Pollution Potential in the United States

This paper describes the large-scale weather features that typically are associated with relatively rapid and slow atmospheric dispersion. Specific examples for some well-known air pollution incidents are illustrated and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the features of quasi-stagnating anticyclones, the typical weather system associated with persistent and extensive areas of sluggish dispersion. On the large scale, the basic quantitative parameters of dispersion over urban areas are the mixing height and the wind speed averaged through that height. These parameters are defined and discussed. Mean morning and afternoon mixing heights and wind speeds are presented for four locations across the United States, illustrating their diurnal, seasonal, and spatial variations. Also for these four locations, data are given on the climatological occurrence of periods during which critical values of the basic parameters were not exceeded. The spatial distributions of mixing heights and average wind speeds during a well-documented air pollution episode are presented.     

Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.     

MAP3S: An investigation of atmospheric,energy related pollutants in the Northeastern United States

The Multi-State Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S) is a major new atmospheric research program of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration. The goal of the MAP3S program is to develop and demonstrate an improved, verified capability to simulate the present and potential future changes in pollutant concentration, atmospheric behavior and precipitation chemistry as a result of pollutant releases to the atmosphere from large-scale power production processes, primarily coal combustion. A major motivation of this program is to be able to provide those agencies charged with the task of meeting the nation's energy needs with the knowledge required to assess alternative strategies for generating power while ensuring ample protection of human health and adequate preservation of the natural environment Since coal is the most abundant domestic fossil energy resource and since electric power production is a major and growing sector of our energy economy, this study focuses on the effects of emissions from coal fired electric power plants, particularly sulfur oxide emissions. The study domain is the high population, energy intensive northeastern quadrant of the United States. Research projects are underway to measure present sulfur oxide concentrations and composition, to assess the potential for long range transport to investigate transformation processes in plumes from point and urban sources, to sample precipitation chemistry and improve understanding of scavenging mechanisms and to develop numerical models that can simulate future air quality on sub-continental scales given patterns of anticipated combustion emissions.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in farmed and wild salmon marketed in the Northeastern United States

Recently, we reported on the analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and chlorinated pesticides in farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from Maine, eastern Canada, and Norway, and wild Alaskan Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). In this paper, we extend the analysis to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in these samples. Total PBDE concentrations in the farmed salmon (0.4-1.4ng/g, wet weight, ww) were not significantly different from those in the wild Alaskan Chinook samples (0.4-1.2ng/g, ww), nor were significant differences found among regions. However, significant intra-regional variations in concentrations of total PBDEs and tetra-BDE 47 were observed in the salmon from the Canadian farms (p<0.01). Congener profiles were dominated by BDE-47, followed by the penta-BDEs 99 and 100. PBDE concentrations in the Canadian samples were lower than those reported two years earlier. Removal of skin resulted in no overall reduction in PBDE concentrations in our farmed salmon, and in some cases, PBDE concentrations were higher in skin-off samples. PBDEs were correlated with lipids only in the skinned samples, suggesting that there is greater accumulation and retention of PBDEs in muscle lipids than in skin-associated fat. In skin-on samples, modest correlations were observed between concentrations of PBDEs and PCBs (R(2)=0.47) and mono-ortho PCBs (R(2)=0.50), whereas PBDEs were not correlated with non-ortho PCBs.     

Ozone and Other Air Quality-Related Variables Affecting Visibility in the Southeast United States

Abstract

An analysis of ozone (O₃) concentrations and several other air quality-related variables was performed to elucidate their relationship with visibility at five urban and semi-urban locations in the southeast United States during the summer seasons of 1980-1996. The role and impact of O₃ on aerosols was investigated to ascertain a relationship with visibility. Regional trend analysis over the 1980s reveals an increase in maximum O₃ concentration coupled with a decrease in visibility. However, a similar analysis for the 1990s shows a leveling-off of both O₃ and visibility; in both cases, the results were not statistically significant at the 5% level. A case study of site-specific trends at Nashville, TN, followed similar trends. To better understand the relationships between O₃ concentration and visibility, the analysis was varied from yearly through daily to hourly averaged values. This increased temporal resolution showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between visibility and O₃. Site-specific hourly r² values ranged from 0.02 to 0.43. Additionally, by performing back-trajectory analysis, it was found that the visibility degraded by air mass migration over polluted areas.