Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use the data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. The most important predictor of evacuation is storm intensity. Households are more likely to evacuate when given evacuation orders, when they perceive a flood risk, and when they live in mobile homes. Households who own pets are less likely to evacuate. Non-white households, pet owners and those with more education are less likely to go to either a motel/hotel or shelter, preferring instead to stay with friends or family.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

Disaster warning and evacuation responses by private business employees

When people are advised that their place of employment is threatened with disaster, how do they respond? Interviews with employees (n=406) of 118 businesses affected by one of seven recent disasters provide the first answers to this question. Multivariate analyses document the key variables that best predict variation are: 1) emergent perceptions of risk; 2) time of evacuation from work; 3) time of evacuation from home; 4) multiple evacuations; and 5) tension between work and family commitments. When warned of impending disaster, most employees initially responded with denial. Gradually, however, emergent perceptions of risk intensified especially among those living in communities in which the least amount of disaster planning had occurred or who resided in a mobile home or apartment. Highest levels of work and family tensions during these evacuations were reported by racial minority employees who had children living at home. Policy implications for these and other findings are discussed so as to pin‐point changes business managers should make that will enable them to provide the leadership and compassion expected by employees.     

Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures.     

A mixed method study of hurricane evacuation: demographic predictors for stated compliance to voluntary and mandatory orders

The present paper examines the role of several demographic indicators on stated hurricane evacuation thresholds, or the lowest category storm for which participants indicated they would evacuate, for mandatory and voluntary orders. Quantitative analyses reveal that race was significantly associated with a lower stated evacuation threshold in both the bivariate and multivariate models and that previous refusal to comply with evacuation orders was associated with higher stated evacuation thresholds. Qualitative analyses reveal two key findings: (1) wind is perceived as more dangerous than water (rain and storm surge) associated with hurricanes; (2) traffic concerns were the most frequently cited reason listed for possible refusal to comply with evacuation orders. Implications of the findings include the value of future evaluations of race and trust, storm characteristics and threat perception, and other practical considerations for improving evacuation compliance such as the amelioration of traffic concerns. Findings also lead to the discussion of the social complexities of race and hurricane vulnerability as a key finding.     

Risk transference and related trends: driving forces towards more mega-disasters

Abstract

In recent decades, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially. There are several trends in society and nature that suggest this pattern may continue, with more frequent mega-disasters occurring in the future. In particular, risk perception that is at odds with the “reala” risk underlies the process of risk transference which encourages development that increases long-term vulnerability.     

Concerns and future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy

Knowing how people prepare for disasters is essential to developing resiliency strategies. This study examined recalled concerns, evacuation experiences, and the future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey, United States, following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Understanding the responses of minority communities is key to protecting them during forthcoming disasters. Overall, 35 per cent of respondents were not going to prepare for an event. Intended future preparedness actions were unrelated to respondents' ratings of personal impact. More Blacks and Hispanics planned on preparing than Whites (68 versus 55 per cent), and more Hispanics planned on evacuating than did others who were interviewed. A higher percentage of respondents who had trouble getting to health centres were going to prepare than others. Respondents' concerns were connected to safety and survival, protecting family and friends, and having enough food and medicine, whereas future actions included evacuating earlier and buying sufficient supplies to shelter in place.     

Improving flood warnings in Europe: a research and policy agenda

Abstract

Warnings and emergency planning for flooding are based on the reality that no matter how thorough our investigations and flood prevention efforts through engineered structural works or land use management, some risk will always remain. This paper examines recent experience with flood warnings in the UK and continental Europe. It combines this experience with an overview of the relevant literature to identify lessons for incorporation into policy, and problem areas which would most obviously benefit from additional research. Throughout, the emphasis is on the non-engineering aspects of warning systems. Results indicate that much is being achieved in terms of the detail of warning design, but the broader issues seem to be largely ignored by both the research literature and practice. First among these broader issues is the failure, by those charged with warning system development and operation, to conceptualise the warning task as one based explicitly on the needs of those at risk. Making this happen will require the development of processes to build the necessary culture of cooperation and learning among the many organisations involved.     

‘Sea of blood’: the intended and unintended effects of criminalising humanitarian volunteers assisting migrants in distress at sea

This paper investigates the impact of the recent criminalisation of humanitarian actors engaged in the search for and rescue of migrants in distress in the Mediterranean Sea, focusing on the impact on the motivation and engagement of humanitarian volunteers in Greece. It argues that criminalisation is aimed at reducing search and rescue (SAR) activities and thus removing perceived ‘pull factors’ for migrants. The paper locates this phenomenon within the broader trend of policing and punishing those who assist migrants in order to deter them and prevent others from engaging in such endeavours. It finds that efforts to criminalise can have the unintended effects of encouraging and mobilising volunteers, as well as generating public attention and support for migrants. However, the negative consequences of criminalisation are far-reaching, including contributing to a high mortality rate among those crossing the Mediterranean without SAR capabilities and the heightened risk of violence against migrants and those who help them.     

Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

The hazards of one's faith: hazard perceptions of South Carolina Christian clergy

Abstract

Hazards take place in multiple contexts, contributing to the decisions we make in the face of a threat. Religious belief is considered an important contextual factor in how people understand and respond to environmental hazards. The objective of this paper is to examine one aspect of religious affiliation, biblical orientation, for its influence on the perception of hazard events. Using a survey of individual Christian clergy in South Carolina, the variation in hazard perception and anticipated mitigation responses among the clergy are explored. Geographic location and past hazard experience were found to be strong indicators of hazard concern, while an adherence to a particular theological doctrine was much less conclusive. The hazard mitigation choices voiced by the clergy were also consistent with little variation across the denominations investigated. While considerable differences were noted between the clergy regarding their view of hazard frequency, hazards and the second coming, and biblical orientation, few connections were established between these variables, hazard perception, and future mitigation behavior. Although past research has established that religious orientation influences one's view of their environment, this study demonstrates that this viewpoint is not necessarily extended to environmental extremes. Future opportunities to investigate the complexity of the religion-hazard nexus, such as whether the same results would have occurred in a different geographic region or if these results of individual clergy perceptions can shed light on larger religious attitudes toward hazards, are also discussed.     

Human rights and proactive displacement: determining the appropriate balance between the duty to protect and the right to remain

The proactive displacement by public authorities of populations from areas perceived to be exposed to a high risk of disaster presents complex human rights challenges. Provided that no ulterior motive is at play, the use of compulsory evacuations and relocations as policy responses to such risk is mandated by the duty to protect the right to life. However, proactive displacement in the interest of saving lives can be problematic as such measures can lead to the limitation of other human rights, resulting in an intricate assessment of whether compulsory evacuation or permanent relocation is proportional in any given circumstance. Such an analysis demands critical attention by public authorities to the perception of the disaster risk in question and problematises claims to objectivity of official risk assessments. Furthermore, it poses the question as to whether measures designed to address the disaster risk in question that are less intrusive than relocation may be available to public authorities.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents’ interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

城市避震疏散场所公园绿地面积指标的研究

前人研究城市绿化和避震疏散场所的都很多,但都是把两者分开来研究。本文把两者结合起来,在研究避震疏散场所的基础上,以尹之潜、李荷提出的震害预测方法和谢礼立归纳的房屋遭遇地震时的破坏情况为基础,以人的需求为本,结合定性和定量2种方法,分别对城市建成区、发展建设区和规划新城区避震疏散公园绿地指标进行研究。按本文提出的避震疏散公园绿地指标规划城市避震疏散场所,既能满足城市避震疏散的目的,又能提高城市绿化率。     

Optimisation patterns for the process of a planned evacuation in the event of a flood

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of the article is to develop an optimisation pattern for the process of a preventive evacuation of people from flood-risk areas (at the first sign of a flood), aimed at mitigating the negative effects of the flood performed through the application of modern computer tools. It has been assumed that the use of both GIS tools and apps for vehicle traffic modelling (the research includes the use of a method developed by the authors) in emergency procedures implemented in response to a flood may increase the efficiency of the anti-flood campaign (here: the evacuation of residents from flooded areas), and thus, it may also minimise the negative effects of the flooding itself. The article distinguishes 14 stages of research, which were chiefly completed by means of the following methods: distance-based accessibility, cumulative accessibility, the Enhanced Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method (E2SFCA) and the Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method (2SFCA), the vehicle routing method, algorithms by Dinitz, Edmonds-Karp, and Ford-Fulkerson, and a comparative method applied to draw a comparison between the actual state of affairs and the optimum condition determined by the aforementioned methods.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents' interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

Return migration after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster: the impact of institutional and individual factors

This paper explores two groups of factors, individual and institutional, that have influenced return migration since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan on 11 March 2011. Based on an analysis of statistical data on evacuees, a questionnaire completed by 289 people who migrated, and 19 semi-structured interviews with disaster-affected people, the research found (apropos of institutional factors) that while the lifting of the government's evacuation order has had no immediate effect on return decisions, the termination of monetary compensation and housing subsidies has had a significant bearing on them. As for individual factors, a strong sense of attachment to home and the possession of property, job obligations, and having family members in the home location are key determinants of return decisions. Moreover, the paper suggests that there could be differing opinions among Japanese government officials and evacuees regarding radiation exposure risk and the degree to which infrastructure and social services have been rehabilitated.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.