登陆广东的热带气旋及其产生的灾害链

根据广东省1949～2000年52年的热带气旋统计资料和减灾防灾年鉴，对登陆广东的热带气旋灾害特征及其形成的灾害链进行了研究。结果表明，登陆广东热带气旋灾害发生频次高，强度大，范围广，突发性、并发性强；具有区域性，季节性，并有集中于某一地区某一时间的特征。由于热带气旋各致灾因子的连锁反应，次生灾害常形成多种灾害链。本文根据灾害链成因对其进行了分类分析。     

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

热带气旋灾害等级预评估方法初探

利用1982-2009年期间48个影响青田县的热带气旋全县灾情记录,选用相应过程全县经济损失占当年GDP的比例和死亡人数作为衡量热带气旋影响程度的主要因子,计算了每个历史过程的灾情指数;再以灾情指数为样本,以对应过程的全县过程平均雨量、过程最大雨量、日最大雨量、最大风速为因子,通过多元线性回归建立了回归方程,为热带气旋影响灾害预评估提供一种参考依据。     

珠江三角洲地区热带气旋逐时雨量分布特征

利用广东省自动观测站、常规地面站的逐时降水量资料,对1999-2002年登陆珠江三角洲地区的热带气旋进行了动态合成等分析.结果表明,登陆前后广东的逐时雨量和热带气旋本身的逐时雨量都发生了变化;热带气旋降水具有明显的不对称性,降水量级越强,分布不对称性越明显;随着降水量级的减弱,最大出现概率圈有外移的趋势;极强和强等级时雨量的落区与热带气旋移动方向有关.     

Risk perception, risk management and vulnerability to landslides in the hill slopes in the city of La Paz, Bolivia. A preliminary statement

The article begins by describing the difficult living conditions of many people in the hill slopes (laderas) of La Paz, Bolivia, demonstrating that they are exposed to a combination of natural and social hazards. ¹ It shows that residents, community leaders and city planners tend to underestimate or deny risk, with important consequences for risk management, such as a failure to raise risk awareness. The article then proposes some hypotheses to explain risk perceptions in La Paz, discarding the usual single-approach interpretations and suggesting instead more nuanced theoretical explanations to account for why people build their homes in such hazardous environments.     

Hurricane storm surge in Volusia County,Florida: evidence of a tipping point for infrastructure damage

Storm surge often is the most destructive consequence of hurricanes and tropical storms, causing significant economic damage and loss of life. Many coastal communities that are located in high‐risk areas vis‐à‐vis hurricanes and tropical storms are prepared for moderate (between six and eight feet) storm surges. Such preparation, though, is not commensurate with more severe, but less frequent, storm surges (greater than eight feet). These gaps in preparedness have serious implications for community resilience. This paper explores elements of the vulnerability and resilience of coastal communities during major storm surge events, drawing on Volusia County, Florida, United States, as a case study. It simulates the impacts of five hurricanes (Categories I–V) and their associated storm surges on local infrastructure systems, populations, and access to resources. The results suggest that Volusia County is subject to a ‘tipping point’ , where surge damage from Category IV storms is significantly greater than that from Category III and lower hurricanes.     

Climate hazards: Lessons from recent events in the United States

Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

The vulnerability of small island States to sea level rise: the need for holistic strategies

There is uncertainty about climate change and its socioenvironmental implications, but the vulnerability of small island states to hazardous events is likely to become increasingly significant. It will not be a normally benign sea that rises but the incidence of storms and cyclones can be assumed to increase with tropical sea-surface temperatures. The proportional socioeconomic impact of tropical cyclone disasters makes these of crucial significance to small islands and small island states. Sea-defences are of little use (and may not be feasible at all) against the damage caused by tropical cyclones and some sea-surges. Social and economic adjustments are also required to parallel erosion control; and disaster preparedness "longstops" must be further developed as a matter of urgency. Apparently small measures must not be displaced by images of ultimate, massive catastrophe; adjustments may serve other functions in society as well. International and bilateral measures are required to take account of migration and"ecological refugees" and national administrations may require modification to take appropriate account of this most crucial of environmental phenomena.     

Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017

ABSTRACT

The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia’s Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here ‘season’ 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in construction standards in tropical cyclone-prone parts of the country are explicitly allowed for. 94% of the normalised losses arise from weather-related perils – bushfires, tropical cyclones, floods and severe storms – with the 1999 Sydney hailstorm the most costly single event (AUD5.6 billion). When aggregated by season, there is no trend in normalised losses from weather-related perils; in other words, after we normalise for changes we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.     

Disaster in the South Paciic: Impact of tropical cyclone "Nomu" on the Solomon Islands, May 1986

Tropical Cyclone "Namu" struck the Pacific nation of the Solomon Islands during 18-20th May 1986. It was sthe most serious natural disaster in the Solomons in lining memory. Nearly a third of the total population of 267,000 were diriven from their homes and 150 people were killed, with damage estimates beginning in AUD 25 million. It has been estimated by the Solomon Islands Ministry of Economic Planning that it will take seven years for the economy to recover. This paper discusses the major events of the disaster episode by employing the Powell and Rayner model of "disaster-time." Factors relating to current disaster Planning and management within the Solomon Islands are outlined. The paper also highlights assistance provided by Australla during the Post-impact sequence and illustrates the type of general disaster preparatory support which Australia provides to South pacific.     

80年代我国的热带气旋灾害

本文通过对我国1980～1989年热带气旋灾害的分析与评估,指出热带气旋灾害具有影响偏南、多集中于夏季且与冷空气等气象灾害重叠、加重灾情等特点,总结了以往防治台风灾害工作中的经验与教训。     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Traditional warning signs of cyclones on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga

Traditional knowledge of disasters has been found to save lives. On remote islands where telecommunications to the mainland are unreliable, unless there are always working batteries in the radio, signs from the environment may be the only warning of an oncoming cyclone. But this knowledge is in danger of being lost, as it is an oral history not well documented, and younger people increasingly rely on technology. This article presents the results of fieldwork on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga in the South Pacific, documenting natural warning signs on islands in two different countries. The results show that there are numerous known signs, with remarkable similarities and consistencies between the two islands. This provides evidence that not only is traditional knowledge of warning signs for cyclones alive and well, the consistency in the signs suggests support for this knowledge as being just as important as western scientific knowledge. The integration of traditional knowledge and western scientific knowledge into a comprehensive warning system may help to overcome some of the limitations of the existing system and the reasons why warnings are sometimes ignored.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

多种灾情预测模型的研究—2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测

采用3种方法,即灰色模型GM,自回归－滑动平均模型ARMA和人工神经网络ANN预测了上海市2001年后（含2001年）强热带气旋出现的趋势与规律,结果表明,2001、2006和2010年将出现中级以上灾难而两个年份灾情较重。通过数值计算结果比较了3种方法的应用特点,为进一步建立综合预测模型打下了基础。     

多种灾情预测模型的研究──2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测

采用３种方法,即灰色模型ＧＭ、自回归－滑动平均模型ＡＲＭＡ和人工神经网络ＡＮＮ预测了上海市２００１年后（含２００１年）强热带气旋出现的趋势与规律。结果表明,２００１,２００６和２０１０年将出现中级以上灾情,而前两个年份灾情较重．通过数值计算结果比较了３种方法的应用特点,为进一步建立综合预测模型打下基础。     

热带气旋的短期气候预报检验

用非线性预报的方法，作西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国、登陆广东热带气旋的短期气候预测，用逐日气压场作登陆广东热带气旋的时段和地段以及南海海面带气旋出现的时间的气候预测。对近3年的热带气候预报进行检验，效果较满意。