Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.     

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents' interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents’ interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales:: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability,usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Responses to natural and man-made hazards in Borno, Northeast Nigeria

This is a study of the responses of the people of eastern Borno to the twin hazards of drought and of an irrigation project stranded by the recent low level of Lake Chad. The environmental awareness of the people has been much influenced by access to information, particularly radio. There was a perceptual dissonance; drought is discerned as a natural act of God, but lake recession is seen as man-made. There is also a gap between responses perceived as appropriate and actual responses consequent on the constraints imposed by the process of modernization, notably the introduction of the South Chad Irrigation Project (SOP). Traditional response mechanisms involving the norm of reciprocity, the use of community resources, agricultural adaptations and sharing have become relatively insignificant in Borno. These are being replaced by emigration, lake floor cultivation and household diversification     

农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究

从灾害风险分析的角度构建了一个由我国北方冬小麦干旱、江淮冬小麦渍涝、东北作物夏季低温冷害以及华南荔枝和香蕉冬季寒害组合的灾害风险评估体系.该体系由风险辨识、风险估算和风险评价组成.风险辨识分别阐明了上述各灾种的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的灾情特征.在风险评估方面,基于灾害性质、灾损和抗灾性能的含义,提出了相应的风险概念模型,根据多年产量资料和气象资料,提出了应用性强、可操作的各种灾害的灾害强度风险概率模拟模式和灾损风险概率模拟模式、抗灾性能模式,并采用逐年产量和气象资料的样本序列,由上述模拟模式估算了各种灾害强度和不同灾损发生的风险概率及风险指数,阐述了风险水平的地区差异.在风险评价方面,根据对各种灾损的风险指标进行综合,分别提出了风险区划指标,并进行了风险区域划分.     

How communities' perceptions of disasters influence disaster response: managing landslides on Mount Elgon,Uganda

The aim of this paper is to assess the role of people's perception in disaster management. It is based on a study carried out along the slopes of Mount Elgon in Eastern Uganda. People living in the study area have experienced a number of landslides, but the landslide in 2010 had the most far‐reaching effects on community livelihoods and resulted in a major setback to development efforts in the area. Experiences of landslides have enabled the local people to develop a number of interpretations of the causes and effects of the phenomena. The study revealed that community members did not share uniform perceptions. Whereas some members advanced technical or physical explanations for the 2010 disaster, others believed that some form of divine power was behind it. Strengthening social networks and integrating communities' perceptions in intervention mechanisms were identified as possible ways of managing future landslide disasters.     

广东省水旱灾害风险分析与农业可持续发展

水旱灾害历来是威胁严重的自然灾害,它制约着广东省农业生产和社会经济发展.本文分析了广东省水旱灾害的特点及成因,根据1950～2002年的资料,应用信息扩散方法对广东省的水旱灾害进行了风险评估,勾画出广东省水旱灾受灾率概率分布曲线图,提出了广东省农业减灾的措施:合理调整农业布局和作物种植结构,采取趋利避害的农业措施,推行有效的防灾技术,改善农业生态环境,增强防灾减灾意识,提高防灾减灾水平.     

台风灾害避灾行为及影响因素的信效度分析

选取浙江南部山区丽水市居民台风灾害避灾行为的问卷调查样本,应用SPSS13.0统计软件,通过KMO指数、球形检验和主成份分析方法,分别对台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素进行了信效度分析.结果表明:灾前避灾行为与灾时行为的KMO指数分别为0.792和0.663,而且球形检验显著,通过因子分析,用最大方差正交旋转变换,灾前避灾行为的α值大于0.7,灾时行为的α值在0.51～0.70.行为模式影响因素的KMO指数为0.682,接近0.7,并且球形检验显著,经因子分析和最大方差正交旋转变换,α值的范围在0.54～0.72.台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素的调查及信效度分析方法可用于其它地区台风影响的研究.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

Recovery following the Gediz earthquake: a study of four villages of western Turkey

This paper is the result of a social and economic survey of four villages in the Gediz region of South West Anatolia, Turkey, which was undertaken in two phases, October/November 1982 and March/April 1984. The specific aims of this survey were to define what was perceived as recovery in the local social, cultural and economic context and to measure recovery in communities which had suffered different degrees of distress and loss following the earthquake and, consequently, had received different amounts and kinds of assistance from the government. Essentially, therefore, the survey sought to answer the question – how far did the government programme of assistance promote recovery and over what period of time? The implications of such an inquiry concern what constitutes appropriate assistance following earthquake in rural communities. It is hoped that studies of this kind can help to guide decision making of both national governments and international humanitarian organizations on the role of material aid in the process of recovery. This is particularly urgent in view of the fact that preliminary investigations of other small rural and under-developed communities struck by earthquake suggest that material aid may actually preclude recovery in the longer term.     

From drought relief to post-disaster recovery: The case of Botswana

This article discusses the initiative of the Government of Botswana in formulating and introducing a programme to assist recovery in rural areas after the present drought period as an important aspect of the national development effort. It examines the process by which this Post Drought Recovery Programme was arrived at, its limitations, the extent of its appropriateness to longer-term factors which render rural households more vulnerable to drought, and suggests conclusions which may be drawn to inform the design of similar programmes elsewhere.     

灾害风险感知研究方法与应用综述

阐述了风险感知的基本内涵、影响因素以及主流的研究方法,总结了风险感知研究方法的最新发展,归纳了近年来国内外灾害风险感知相关理论研究和实证研究,并对灾害风险感知研究的发展趋势进行了展望,提出了未来灾害风险感知研究中应当完善的问题。     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.