Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

The secret history of natural disaster

Abstract

This paper explores the failure of historians to properly engage the study of natural hazards. It argues that by focusing mainly on individual calamities, historians have overlooked the larger social and economic forces that have shaped the response to natural disaster over the last century. Two important trends, real estate capitalism and the entry of the state into the political economy of hazards after World War II, are singled out as crucial for understanding US society's response to natural disaster. As a result of these historical forces, risk became a commodity, with harmful environmental consequences.     

Towards an earthquake-resilient world: from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention

ABSTRACT

Destructive earthquakes in urban or rural areas around the world have caused severe damage to local societies. Pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster reconstruction can significantly reduce the impact of earthquakes on communities. To explore the popular research topics and trends in this area, CiteSpace was used to develop a knowledge map visualization. It was found that the main research into earthquake disaster prevention and reconstruction has been focused on disaster risk reduction planning, disaster mitigation knowledge, participatory disaster governance, and community resilience building. In this Special Issue, there were six distinctive earthquake disaster research papers that covered scientific, social, and institutional aspects. It was concluded that to reduce the effects of earthquake disasters, an interdisciplinary research approach and systems thinking is needed. The investigation also revealed that there has been a paradigm shift from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention to build community and urban resilience.     

Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use the data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. The most important predictor of evacuation is storm intensity. Households are more likely to evacuate when given evacuation orders, when they perceive a flood risk, and when they live in mobile homes. Households who own pets are less likely to evacuate. Non-white households, pet owners and those with more education are less likely to go to either a motel/hotel or shelter, preferring instead to stay with friends or family.     

Improving flood warnings in Europe: a research and policy agenda

Abstract

Warnings and emergency planning for flooding are based on the reality that no matter how thorough our investigations and flood prevention efforts through engineered structural works or land use management, some risk will always remain. This paper examines recent experience with flood warnings in the UK and continental Europe. It combines this experience with an overview of the relevant literature to identify lessons for incorporation into policy, and problem areas which would most obviously benefit from additional research. Throughout, the emphasis is on the non-engineering aspects of warning systems. Results indicate that much is being achieved in terms of the detail of warning design, but the broader issues seem to be largely ignored by both the research literature and practice. First among these broader issues is the failure, by those charged with warning system development and operation, to conceptualise the warning task as one based explicitly on the needs of those at risk. Making this happen will require the development of processes to build the necessary culture of cooperation and learning among the many organisations involved.     

The geo-genetic status of earthquake-related hazards and the role of human and policy dimensions in impact mitigation

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes occur in and around active lithospheric-plate margins that are located both in diverging and converging plate-settings. New fault rupture or old active fault reactivation can cause ground shaking, land deformation, land subsidence, landslides, and mass avalanches. The relevant locations of major risk centres around the world are well known. However, the parameters such as trend, pattern, frequency and magnitude are highly variable and very difficult to determine and predict. One result is that many fundamental and universal scientific achievements for mitigating earthquake hazard have often failed in protecting and safe-guarding human life and property. Although naturally occurring events cannot be prevented nevertheless loss of life and property damage could be minimized if an integrated effort and using the wisdom of the relevant professionals are practiced. A paradigm shift of the culture from post-disaster relief and rehabilitation to pre-disaster preparation and practice would reduce the level of destruction from an impending earthquake. Requisite pre-disaster physical planning and appropriate building measures, and pre- and post-disaster risk management should give special attention to public awareness programmes for loss mitigation. However, the fundamental requirement for such achievement is dedicated approach and commitment from the planner, practitioners and end-users of risk mitigation actions.     

Mapping social vulnerability to flood hazard in Norfolk,England

In this paper, we present a method to assess social vulnerability through the creation of an Open Source Vulnerability Index (OS-VI). The OS-VI provides context to environmental hazards and allows NGOs and local agencies to better tailor services and provide targeted pre-emptive vulnerability reduction and resilience-building programmes. A deductive indicator-based approach is utilised to incorporate a wide range of vulnerability indicators known to influence vulnerability. Unlike many vulnerability indices, the OS-VI incorporates flood risk as well as the loss of capabilities and the importance of key services (health facilities and food stores) through the measurement of accessibility when determining an area's level of social vulnerability. The index was developed using open-source mapping and analysis software and is composed completely of open-source data from national data sets. The OS-VI was designed at the national level, with data for all proxy indicators available across the entirety of England and Wales. For this paper, a case study is presented concerned with one English county, Norfolk.

Highlights

• We produce an open-source vulnerability index.

• Accessibility to health care found to be severely affected by flooding.

• High vulnerability areas found to be disproportionately impacted by flooding.

• Urban extent of an area found to increase its level of vulnerability.

• Flood affected areas more likely to be composed of elderly, sick and poor.

     

Environmental equity in a sunbelt city: the spatial distribution of toxic hazards in Phoenix,Arizona

Abstract

This paper examines the spatial distributions of industrial facilities emitting toxic substances in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan region. The analysis relies on geographic information system mapping of hazardous facilities listed in the Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) to assess the spatial distribution of polluting industries in relation to the demographic composition of host neighborhoods. The research addresses four questions: (1) Are there differences between the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods with and without polluting industrial facilities? (2) Is there a relationship between the volume of toxic chemicals released from industrial facilities and the socioeconomic characteristics of host neighborhoods? (3) Is there a relationship between the toxicity of the chemicals released from industrial facilities and the socioeconomic characteristics of those living in proximity? (4) Do alternative methods for determining the distribution of potentially affected populations produce different observed patterns of environmental inequities? The study concludes that there is a clear pattern of environmental inequity in Phoenix based on the location and volume of emissions of TRI facilities. Analysis of the toxicity of emissions found a more equal distribution of risk, reflecting the suburbanization of high-technology industries into predominantly white middle-class communities.     

Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

The plight of some of the poorest of the poor: vulnerabilities of fishing families on Kutubdia Island,Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

Globally, fisheries are important economic resources and support many coastal communities, but the people that rely on fishing experience a range of environmental hazards. This research surveyed 300 fishing households on Kutubdia Island, Bangladesh, regarding their fishing activities and the conditions and perceptions of risk while fishing at sea. This is an artisanal fishery of small boats used for day trips, and larger but still simple boats used for multi-day trips farther offshore. Many households (62%) reported sickness or health problems while at sea. Medicine or first aid kits are carried by only 35% of the boats. Hazards encountered at sea included bad weather (69%), pirates (60%), unfriendly encounters with larger boats (20%), and engine failure (13%). The 300 households reported that 109 fishers had been lost at sea during the past 21 years. From this we estimate an annual death rate of 1335 per 100,000 fishers here, making it among the most dangerous in the world. Bangladesh needs a regulatory framework for its fisheries to include environmental, economic, political, cultural, and social components. Such a regulatory arrangement would support the Kutubdia fishers and should be incorporated into Bangladesh’s national policy for achieving its sustainability goals.     

Vehicle-occupant deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States, 1900–1998

Abstract

Occupants of vehicles encounter an uncertain degree of risk during tornadic storms. The current National Weather Service guidelines suggest we abandon vehicles to lie in a ditch if no sturdy shelter is available. However, these guidelines were developed without the benefit of supporting research. As we are an increasingly vehicle-dependent society, it is important to explore the historical record of vehicle-occupant deaths to see if the National Weather Service guidance is appropriate. The objective of this paper is to investigate the number, distribution, and broad spatial and temporal trends associated with vehicle-occupant deaths that have occurred as a result of tornadoes, and to define the proportion of tornado-induced deaths that have occurred in vehicles.

There were 15,047 deaths caused by tornadoes from 1900 through 1998. Of those, 5685 occurred at a defined site, and 270 were known to have occurred in vehicles. The number of vehicle-occupant deaths, as a proportion of all site-known, tornado-induced deaths, was constant from 1959–1979, but decreased significantly between 1980–1998. The number of deaths was related to several influencing factors. Linear regressions and correlations were employed to determine the degree of relationship between the number of deaths and several explanatory factors. While population, number of vehicle registrations, and number of tornadoes all seemed to influence the number of deaths to some degree, the most significant factor to influence the number of deaths appeared to be vehicle safety features. Most vehicle-occupant deaths occurred during rare F4 tornadoes, when vehicles where thrown from roadways. Regionally, the Great Plains had the highest number of vehicle-occupant deaths from tornadoes.     

The socioeconomic effects of a landslide in Western Washington

Abstract

Landslides can create permanently unstable sites that cannot be repaired or developed, and as a result, can cause severe economic and social consequences for families and communities. This study examines the economic and social effects of a landslide that struck Western Washington in February 1999. Two years after the landslide, property owners completed a confidential questionnaire. Property owners experienced significant personal financial losses and received little financial assistance to recover. Most (93%) did not receive any relief from their insurance policies, and 7% received only temporary rental assistance. Participants reported a variety of monetary and personal losses that were associated with emotional distress. They also reported a variety of gains and new perspectives on life. In this paper, we consider mechanisms to reduce the economic losses of landslides as well as implications and future research directions.     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

Environmental damage: distinguishing human from geophysical causes

Abstract

During the past two decades it has become increasingly common to attribute “naturala” disasters and other damaging environmental events to proximate or underlying causes that are socially produced. Through an examination of three cases, two of them historical, this paper demonstrates that underlying causes within the geophysical domain are also important. Few types of environmental damage or disaster stem from unalloyed human causes or geophysical ones; complex intermixtures are the rule.     

Development policy: a driving force of environmental hazard in Russia

Abstract

The scale and severity of environmental deterioration in Russia—and its accompanying hazards—constitute a true environmental crisis. Its characteristic features are a gradual continuing loss of environmental quality accompanied by acute environmental impacts associated with industrial accidents and related emergencies. The underlying causes are a mixture of political and social factors in association with the unbridled technological development. These were along the main driving forces of environmental hazard in the former Soviet Union and they continue to play that role in contemporary Russia. But the current environmental crisis is not only a time of adversity; it also has the potential to provide the necessary conditions for improvements in the economic wellbeing and environmental quality.     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

The role of religion in local perceptions of disasters: the case of post-tsunami religious and social change in Samoa

ABSTRACT

This paper explores religious perceptions of disasters and their implications for post-disaster processes of religious and cultural change. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in post-tsunami Samoa, this study investigates how people in two tsunami-affected villages make sense of the tsunami, its causes and impact based on different Christian understandings: the tsunami as divine punishment or as a sign of the Second Coming. I argue that these different perceptions of the tsunami are used in bringing about or opposing religious and cultural change based on different ideals of continuity and change.     

Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.