Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

At the intersection of disaster risk and religion: interpretations and responses to the threat of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake

Over the last several decades, the scientific community has replaced the ‘acts of god’ explanations for disasters with a view that disasters are actually ‘acts of nature,’ and more recently, ‘acts of human behavior and decision making.’ Despite the secular orientation of contemporary disaster research, religious beliefs still govern people’s interpretations of natural events across many continents and cultures. Using a case study of a rural Sherpa community in Nepal, this paper responds to the challenge of linking religion and disaster risk in the context of a climate change-induced glacial lake outburst flood hazard. Data collection employed ethnographic techniques including participant observation and 53 interviews with community members. Results indicate that the case study community’s religious belief system influences how they interpret and respond to the glacial lake hazard, although their beliefs co-exist with more scientific interpretations of risk. Rather than being immobilised by their belief system, we found that religious aspects like rituals and prayer can enhance social cohesion and contribute to capacities for coping with fear and uncertainty in this community. We assert that religion can yield valuable resources to glacial lake risk reduction strategies, which will benefit from incorporating social-cultural factors more profoundly.     

The role of religion in local perceptions of disasters: the case of post-tsunami religious and social change in Samoa

ABSTRACT

This paper explores religious perceptions of disasters and their implications for post-disaster processes of religious and cultural change. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in post-tsunami Samoa, this study investigates how people in two tsunami-affected villages make sense of the tsunami, its causes and impact based on different Christian understandings: the tsunami as divine punishment or as a sign of the Second Coming. I argue that these different perceptions of the tsunami are used in bringing about or opposing religious and cultural change based on different ideals of continuity and change.     

Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction

As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy‐makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, ‘disaster risk reduction (DRR)’ and ‘vulnerability reduction’, and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post‐disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom.     

The hazards of one's faith: hazard perceptions of South Carolina Christian clergy

Abstract

Hazards take place in multiple contexts, contributing to the decisions we make in the face of a threat. Religious belief is considered an important contextual factor in how people understand and respond to environmental hazards. The objective of this paper is to examine one aspect of religious affiliation, biblical orientation, for its influence on the perception of hazard events. Using a survey of individual Christian clergy in South Carolina, the variation in hazard perception and anticipated mitigation responses among the clergy are explored. Geographic location and past hazard experience were found to be strong indicators of hazard concern, while an adherence to a particular theological doctrine was much less conclusive. The hazard mitigation choices voiced by the clergy were also consistent with little variation across the denominations investigated. While considerable differences were noted between the clergy regarding their view of hazard frequency, hazards and the second coming, and biblical orientation, few connections were established between these variables, hazard perception, and future mitigation behavior. Although past research has established that religious orientation influences one's view of their environment, this study demonstrates that this viewpoint is not necessarily extended to environmental extremes. Future opportunities to investigate the complexity of the religion-hazard nexus, such as whether the same results would have occurred in a different geographic region or if these results of individual clergy perceptions can shed light on larger religious attitudes toward hazards, are also discussed.     

黑龙江省主要灾害与减灾战略初探

黑龙江省是全国受灾最重、损失最大的省份之一。本文对其40年来主要灾害—农业灾害、森林火灾、地震灾害、城市灾害作了概略的介绍,通过统计及其规律的探讨与分析,提出了未来10年灾害预测,并作出了减灾的战略目标和实施对策。     

基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络的暴雨洪涝灾害风险辨识--以闽三角地区为例

灾害风险辨识是灾害有效防控的重要环节之一,辨识体系与风险水平之间的非线性复杂关系使研究方法向精细化、智能化转型。闽三角地区是我国重要的沿海经济开放区,独特的“山-海”自然地理格局、起伏破碎的地形、高发的台风暴潮和极端短时降雨特征使其常遭受洪涝灾害侵扰。以闽三角为例,将生态服务价值纳入风险评价体系,构建基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法,旨在完善评价体系的同时,弥补传统评价方法存在的非线性缺陷和主观依赖,并以此为基础,进一步探究该地区风险空间分布规律和空间格局,为灾害风险防控提供思路。结果表明:①基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法能够系统准确的认知暴雨洪涝灾害风险水平与空间分布;②高风险区主要分布在河流沿岸、河口处、湾区,且人口、经济活动较活跃地区,城市化发展快速区与缓慢区相比,更容易遭受洪涝灾害威胁;③洪涝风险以高-高和低-低集聚为主,风险根据空间自相关性特征分为“整体随机”“局部随机-邻域集聚”和“整体集聚”三种类型。最后根据风险特征将闽三角地区高风险分为“厦门集美版块”“泉州湾区版块”“漳州县区版块”,分别提出灾害治理建议。     

Living with disasters: social capital for disaster governance

This paper explores how social networks and bonds within and across organisations shape disaster operations and strategies. Local government disaster training exercises serve as a window through which to view these relations, and ‘social capital’ is used as an analytic for making sense of the human relations at the core of disaster management operations. These elements help to expose and substantiate the often intangible relations that compose the culture that exists, and that is shaped by preparations for disasters. The study reveals how this social capital has been generated through personal interactions, which are shared among disaster managers across different organisations and across ‘levels’ within those organisations. Recognition of these ‘group resources’ has significant implications for disaster management in which conducive social relations have become paramount. The paper concludes that socio‐cultural relations, as well as a people‐centred approach to preparations, appear to be effective means of readying for, and ultimately responding to, disasters.     

Conceptualising disaster social capital: what it is,why it matters,and how it can be enhanced

Social capital discourse occupies an important place in disaster studies. Scholars have adopted various inflections of social capital to explain how those with greater amounts of this crucial resource are generally more resilient to disasters and experience speedier recovery. Disaster scholars have also discovered that people typically display altruistic tendencies in the wake of disasters and develop novel networks of mutual support, known as ‘communitas’, which is also seen to build resilience and boost recovery. In this paper, we use the work of Pierre Bourdieu to synthesise these literatures, conceptualising communitas as ‘disaster social capital’. We offer a fleshed-out definition of disaster social capital to distinguish it from regular social capital and discuss the barriers to, and the enablers of, its formation. While primarily a conceptual discussion, we believe that it has practical and policy value for disaster scholars and practitioners interested in inclusive disaster risk reduction as well as full and just recoveries.     

广东农业旱灾的时间分布规律及重灾年份预测

广东是华南农业旱灾较严重的省份，几乎年年都有发生，造成了巨大的经济损失。过去55a间，农业旱灾波动性加重发展，大致以10a为周期，轻重灾害期交替出现。在重灾期内，受灾率和成灾率都很高。广东农业旱灾的受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数变化较大，据此建立了农业旱灾灰色灾变预测模型。计算结果表明，今后20a将出现3个重灾年份，即2010-2011年，2015-2017年和2022—2024年期间，后两个年份极有可能发生特大旱灾。     

Lessons for long-term social recovery following the 2004 tsunami: Community,livelihoods, tourism and housing

The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 galvanized world attention like no other natural disaster before. Unprecedented amounts of aid were given and a record number of international aid agencies were involved in relief and recovery operations. Major reviews of the response to the disaster have suggested that the immediate relief effort was better than expected. However, weaknesses in the longer term recovery work were identified within months of the disaster and yet the same weaknesses were being confirmed four and five years later. Even though many studies have been published on the tsunami disaster there are still many lessons to be learnt, particularly in relation to social recovery as distinct from the restoration of destroyed or damaged infrastructure. This paper presents an overview of the findings of a study that was conducted over a period of four years across five different tsunami-affected local areas of Sri Lanka and southern India. The study focused on lessons to be learnt in relation to rebuilding community, restoring livelihoods, recreating an appropriate tourism industry and providing relevant housing and planned settlements for disaster survivors. The paper argues that ‘build back better’ is possible, but only if ‘asset replacement’ strategies are replaced by integrated physical and social planning to address local needs in culturally appropriate ways. Much of what the authors advocate may seem to be little more than ‘common sense’ and many of our findings echo those of many other post-tsunami evaluations. Yet patient and well-integrated approaches to disaster recovery are all too rare in a world that is experiencing so many natural disasters. Because the 2004 tsunami evoked an unprecedented global response it is important to ensure that the lessons of the recovery effort are clearly learnt and this paper aims to convert research findings into a clear strategy for long-term social recovery.     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

山区农民泥石流灾害风险感知和可接受风险研究

基于泥石流灾害可接受风险调查问卷的分析,从泥石流灾害关注程度和类型、可接受性及灾害可接受风险3个方面阐述农民对泥石流灾害可接受风险的感知和态度。研究结果表明：(1)农民普遍关注泥石流灾害,主要关注的灾害后果是财产损失,财产损失中主要关注的是房屋;(2)农民对泥石流灾害可接受性分别是：距离为<5 km、频次为100年1次或更长时间1次、预警时间为<1 h和保险费用为<100元;(3)农民可接受的受灾人数、死亡人数、死亡比例、个人直接经济损失和总直接经济损失分别为≤100人、≤1人、≤5×10^-7/a、≤1 000元和≤10万元;(4)影响农民对泥石流灾害风险感知和风险态度以及可接受风险水平的主要人口特征是36～45岁、女性、受教育程度初中学历以及收入<1 000元/月的群体。     

Prospects for disaster management in China and the role of insurance

ABSTRACT

Natural disasters have serious negative consequences for China and it is necessary to build an effective and efficient disaster relief system. This paper aims to provide suggestions for how to restructure and optimise China’s disaster relief system. This paper first discusses the four main channels through which relief funds are currently distributed in China while also examining the relative share of relief funds directed through each channel. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of these relief channels are compared. Finally, suggestions for how China can reduce the negative economic and social impacts of natural disasters by restructuring and optimising its current disaster relief system are provided. The paper presents several main findings. Currently, government-channelled funds are the most important source of disaster relief in China. However, the actual ratio of relief funds from the government to the total amount of losses and the ratio of relief funds from the four channels added together are both very low. This paper argues that the role of commercial insurance in disaster relief is far from sufficient. Importantly, suggestions are also provided on how to restructure the system and on the relative role that each of these channels should play in China’s disaster relief system.     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

A pilot study of citizens' opinions on the Incident Command System in Taiwan

Local residents may have different views on disaster‐response modes depending on their cultural and socioeconomic background. The purpose of this study was to examine Taiwan residents' opinions on the Incident Command System (ICS). We performed a structured survey through face‐to‐face interviews in mudslide‐affected communities. Quantitative analysis showed that the residents exhibited a clear preference for the ICS core‐principle attributes of ‘integrated communications’, ‘transfer of command’ and ‘modular organisation’. By contrast, the residents tended towards a non‐ICS approach for ‘incident action plan’ and ‘manageable span of control’. Qualitative analysis revealed an uncertain attitude towards ‘transfer of command’ and ‘incident action plan’. Community acceptance is important in the promotion of the ICS. A better understanding of residents' preferences should be acquired through a broader community survey, allowing us to understand perspectives on the ICS among different societies and facilitate implementation of the ICS at the basic community level.     

Household self‐blame for disasters: responsibilisation and (un)accountability in decentralised participatory risk governance

The most important theoretical argument concerning decentralised participatory governance is that it can make a government more accountable for the needs of the governed. Key to this process are participatory spaces that act as mechanisms for dialogue between citizens and local government. However, within Cochabamba, a city in the centre of Bolivia, South America, ‘at‐risk’ citizens engage minimally with disaster risk issues in participatory spaces, despite high levels of civic participation. This is because ‘at‐risk’ populations view disasters as a private/household problem that is symptomatic of household error, rather than seeing them as a broader public problem due to wider structural inequalities. Consequently, they redistribute responsibility for disaster risk reduction towards households, which (re)produces the absolution of government authorities as guarantors of disaster risk reduction. This paper challenges the normative assumption that participatory spaces facilitate democratic deliberation of disaster risk reduction and the downward accountability of local government for disaster risk reduction.     

Local‐level governance of risk and resilience in Nepal

This paper explores the circumstances in which communities may effectively reduce risks. It draws on the example of two ‘Risk and Resilience Committees’ (RRCs) that were established in Nepal as part of an action research project: one in Panchkhal in the central region, operating as a community‐based organisation (CBO); and the other in Dhankuta in the eastern region, embedded in municipal government. In‐depth interviews were conducted with RRC members. Wider community preferences for risk reduction were examined through a questionnaire survey. In Dhankuta, the RRC obtained further funding, developed strong upward and downward institutional links, and applied a ‘disaster risk reduction lens’ to existing local government responsibilities. In Panchkhal, RRC activities have been limited by funding and have focused on the strengthening of livelihoods. It may be concluded tentatively that community‐based disaster risk reduction activities are more successful when they are institutionally embedded in local government structures.     

湖南省农业旱灾的年际变化及重灾年份预测

旱灾是湖南省最严重的农业自然灾害之一,旱灾几乎年年都有发生,且涉及面广,后续和潜在危害较大。湖南省农业旱灾的受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数的变化规律揭示:过去58年,农业旱灾具有明显的波动性与阶段性,大致以5年为尺度,轻重灾期交替出现;受灾率与成灾率具有同步性,在重灾期尤为明显;1980年以来灾情更为严重,成灾率、受灾率都较大。湖南省农业旱灾异常指数周期性变化可以分为2个时段,1990年代初期以前存在4个特征时间尺度,分别为3年、5年1、0和21年4个周期;1990年代初期以后存在3个特征时间尺度,分别为3年、7年和17年年3个周期。根据异常指数的变化,建立了农业旱灾灰色灾变预测模型,进行了重灾预测。结果表明,今后20年湖南省农业旱灾将出现5个重灾年份,分别在2010-2011年、2013—2014年2、016—2018年2、021—2022年、2025—2027年期间,间隔为4年左右。