Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: homeowners and wildfire risk

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental beliefs, and hazard mitigation actions in the context of wildfire, a natural hazard projected to be intensified by climate change. We find that survey respondents are situated across a continuum between being ‘believers’ and ‘deniers’ that is multidimensional. Placement on this believer–denier spectrum is related to general environmental attitudes. We fail, however, to find a relationship between climate change beliefs and wildfire risk-reduction actions in general. In contrast, we find a statistically significant positive relationship between level of wildfire risk mitigation and being a climate denier. Further, certain pro-environmental attitudes are found to have a statistically significant negative association with the level of wildfire risk mitigation.     

People's risk perception of glacial lake outburst flooding: a case of Tsho Rolpa Lake,Nepal

Previous research indicates that people's perception of risk from a particular hazard positively influences their adoption of effective mitigation strategies and responses. This research investigates the risk perceptions of people living downstream from Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake of Nepal. Field surveys revealed that people living beneath the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake possess a low risk perception despite the probability of a glacial lake outburst at their location. Further investigation reveals that many individuals have made no adjustments in response to the potential disaster. The low risk perception on the part of the riverine population is chiefly attributed to the cry-wolf effect of the 1997 evacuation that followed an inaccurate prediction of a Tsho Rolpa outburst. Previous remediation structures were kept in place, but appear to have created a false sense of security among those at risk. This overconfidence in the rudimentary efforts employed thus far is illustrated by the fact that many residents have moved their infrastructure even closer to the river channel in recent years. Partial mitigation efforts have muted people's perceptions of the environmental risk and have therefore increased the vulnerability of the communities to a probable outburst flood.     

Making building codes an effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation

Abstract

Investigators picking through the debris left by the Northridge earthquake in 1994 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 found building codes had not provided the degree of protection against damage that many expected. We provide evidence that the problems of code enforcement in the United States that were uncovered for these events are not unique. We show the seismic provisions of codes receive low priority for enforcement by many local building departments, even in areas of moderate to high seismic hazard. Drawing lessons from experience in the United States with programs to foster greater energy efficiency in buildings, we discuss how the federal government and states can make building codes a more effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation. Although the lessons we draw are specific to the United States, the broader implications of this research concern the role of higher-level governments in motivating local governments to address risks posed by natural hazards.     

Comparing proximity measures of exposure to geostatistical estimates in environmental justice research

Abstract

Recent hazard literature frequently refers to sustainability and resilience as the guiding principles behind effective hazard planning. Certainly, structurally organizing communities to minimize effects of disasters and to recover quickly by restoring socio-economic vitality are laudable goals. However, while anticipating such outcomes is relatively easy from a theoretical standpoint, practical implementation of comprehensive plans is much more elusive. Indeed, relationships between community sustainability/resilience and hazards are complex involving many social, economic, political and physical factors. A conceptual framework for analysis of sustainability and resilience, then, is described based on three theoretical models, a mitigation model, a recovery model, and a structural-cognitive model. This framework is examined using data from Florida, USA, where local context, social and political activities, and economic concerns present difficulties in application. The question remains, therefore, to what extent can communities truly develop sustainable and resilient characteristics?     

Community response to hazard information

The impact of flood hazard information on public acceptance of a selected flood mitigation strategy was assessed by an analysis of the content of newspaper reports of community reaction and letters to the editor. The impact of personal delivery of a flood hazard map on individual perception of risk and attitude to such information was assessed using personal interviews. The results indicated that media coverage of the flood hazard information reduced public criticism of the works. This result must be partially attributable to the dramatic style of media coverage and the fact that the media only emphasized the positive value of the works. The interview demonstrated that personal delivery of the information raised perception of risk, improved comprehension of flood risk, had no impact on acceptability of risk but discouraged some respondents from seeking such information in the future. Factors to explain the last negative change were identified to be the format of the map sheet and low salience of flood hazard. On the basis of all results, methods to improve community response to hazard information are provided.     

家户水灾社会脆弱性的评估方法研究——以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一，研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有着极为重要的意义。但是，合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战。利用Hoovering改进模式，选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区，对研究区内的家户进行了社会脆弱性评价。结果表明，长沙市区的5个区内，高脆弱性家户最多的是天心区，最少的是雨花区。而就社区而言，高脆弱性家户最多的足裕南街街道和桔子洲街道。该结果反映了长沙不同行政区、社区社会脆弱性的差别，可供确定受援地区和受援人群及开展援助活动，乃至灾后日常风险管理参考。     

Can Hazard Risk be Communicated through a Virtual Experience?

Cyberspace, defined by William Gibson as a consensual hallucination, now refers to all computer-generated interactive environments. Virtual reality, one of a class of interactive cyberspaces, allows us to create and interact directly with objects not available in the everyday world. Despite successes in the entertainment and aviation industries, this technology has been called a 'solution in search of a problem'. The purpose of this commentary is to suggest such a problem: the inability to acquire experience with a hazard to motivate mitigation. Direct experience with a hazard has been demonstrated as a powerful incentive to adopt mitigation measures. While we lack the ability to summon hazard events at will in order to gain access to that experience, a virtual environment can provide an arena where potential victims are exposed to a hazard's effects. Immersion as an active participant within the hazard event through virtual reality may stimulate users to undertake mitigation steps that might otherwise remain undone. This paper details the possible direction in which virtual reality may be applied to hazards mitigation through a discussion of the technology, the role of hazard experience, the creation of a hazard simulation and the issues constraining implementation.     

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal,social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.     

基于WebGIS的城市泥石流数字减灾系统建立及其应用

基于WEBGIS的城市泥石流数字减灾系统是实现泥石流非工程减灾的重要措施，依托信息技术和通讯技术进行城市泥石流数字减灾WEBGIS系统的研究与设计，对城市泥石流的减灾与防治具有重要的应用价值和现实意义。本系统包括城市环境信息、城市经济信息、泥石流基础信息、泥石流灾害评价、泥石流综合防灾规划、相关论文著作及软件与数据下载七个功能模块，实现了基础信息管理、灾害评价、防灾规划和信息服务等泥石流数字防灾减灾功能，系统依托ARCIMS、JAVA、ARCXML技术进行设计与开发，并在云南东川城区得到了较好的应用，实现了系统本阶段设计目标，表明WebGIS在城市泥石流防减灾方面广具应用前景。     

Tornadoes,television and trust—A closer look at the influence of the local weathercaster during severe weather

Previous research has acknowledged the importance of mass media in shaping risk perception and as the channel through which people get information during and after disasters. There is still much more to know about the role mass media (but especially the television medium) plays in people's precautionary hazard behaviors. Close to 400 people were surveyed in the Memphis, TN television market about their knowledge and perception of the severe weather threat, and their past experiences with tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.The survey results show that respondents do develop a relationship with their local television weathercaster and also trust their weathercaster during severe weather. This relationship and trust can then predict the likelihood of taking shelter during severe weather. Ultimately, the case will be made that the findings may be useful to future hazards research in other locations.     

Operationalizing risk perception and preparedness behavior research for a multi-hazard context

Increasingly, citizens are being asked to take a more active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR), as decentralization of hazard governance has shifted greater responsibility for hazard preparedness actions onto individuals. Simultaneously, the taxonomy of hazards considered for DRR has expanded to include medical and social crises alongside natural hazards. Risk perception research emerged to support decision-makers with understanding how people characterize and evaluate different hazards to anticipate behavioral response and guide risk communication. Since its inception, the risk perception concept has been incorporated into many behavioral theories, which have been applied to examine preparedness for numerous hazard types. Behavioral theories have had moderate success in predicting or explaining preparedness behaviors; however, they are typically applied to a single hazard type and there is a gap in understanding which theories (if any) are suited for examining multiple hazard types simultaneously. This paper first reviews meta-analyses of behavioral theories to better understand performance. Universal lessons learnt are summarized for survey design. Second, theoretically based preparedness studies for floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and terrorism are reviewed to assess the conceptual requirements for a ‘multi-hazard’ preparedness approach. The development of an online preparedness self-assessment and learning platform is discussed.     

内蒙古呼伦贝尔市草原火灾危害度评价及预测

以呼伦贝尔市1994-2005年的草原火灾为研究对象,基于灰色关联度法、系统聚类分析法,引用草原火灾危害度指数(HI),对每年草原火灾危害度进行评价,并借助灰色灾变预测法对危害度大的年份进行预测,预测到未来2个危害度大的年份是2014、2026年。     

Prospects for improved hurricane protection on oceanic islands: Hawaii after Hurricane Iwa *

Hurricane Iwa (23rd November 1982) produced Hawaii's costliest natural disaster and revealed serious flaws in the area's hurricane preparedness, response and mitigation programs. Twenty-eight months later, a follow-up study showed that impacted communities and facilities had been reconstructed with only selective and limited attention to mitigating future coastal storm hazards. Prospects for the reduction of hazard vulnerability on oceanic islands through post-disaster mitigation measures are assessed in the light of Hawaii's experience.     

At the intersection of disaster risk and religion: interpretations and responses to the threat of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake

Over the last several decades, the scientific community has replaced the ‘acts of god’ explanations for disasters with a view that disasters are actually ‘acts of nature,’ and more recently, ‘acts of human behavior and decision making.’ Despite the secular orientation of contemporary disaster research, religious beliefs still govern people’s interpretations of natural events across many continents and cultures. Using a case study of a rural Sherpa community in Nepal, this paper responds to the challenge of linking religion and disaster risk in the context of a climate change-induced glacial lake outburst flood hazard. Data collection employed ethnographic techniques including participant observation and 53 interviews with community members. Results indicate that the case study community’s religious belief system influences how they interpret and respond to the glacial lake hazard, although their beliefs co-exist with more scientific interpretations of risk. Rather than being immobilised by their belief system, we found that religious aspects like rituals and prayer can enhance social cohesion and contribute to capacities for coping with fear and uncertainty in this community. We assert that religion can yield valuable resources to glacial lake risk reduction strategies, which will benefit from incorporating social-cultural factors more profoundly.     

The secret history of natural disaster

Abstract

This paper explores the failure of historians to properly engage the study of natural hazards. It argues that by focusing mainly on individual calamities, historians have overlooked the larger social and economic forces that have shaped the response to natural disaster over the last century. Two important trends, real estate capitalism and the entry of the state into the political economy of hazards after World War II, are singled out as crucial for understanding US society's response to natural disaster. As a result of these historical forces, risk became a commodity, with harmful environmental consequences.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.     

Linking the stressors and stressing the linkages: Human—environment vulnerability and brownfield redevelopment in New York City

This paper suggests that the mitigation of one hazard—soil contamination—can unintentionally affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional stressors in the local human—environment system through a study of brownfield redevelopment in New York City. This study employs a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) approach to identify components that contribute to vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities in the local community, based on the thematic analysis of 55 interviews with residents from four neighbourhoods with brownfield redevelopment activities in New York City. This analysis of resident observations and perceptions of post-redevelopment hazard conditions indicates how mitigating vulnerability to one urban hazard—soil contamination—has the potential to affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional hazards like flooding and air pollution because of the complex linkages among multiple stressors. A causal model of vulnerability to the unintended impacts of brownfield redevelopment is subsequently developed to further demonstrate the interactive linkages among exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to multiple stressors. This study also provides measures that stakeholders can monitor and evaluate over time to track the socio-spatial and environmental implications of brownfield redevelopment and subsequent changes in the local human—environment system.     

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation in the Philippines: Experience from Mt. Pinatubo

Considerable progress has been made in volcanic disaster mitigation in the Philippines during the last four decades, since the devastating Hibok-Hibok eruption in 1951 and the establishment of the Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL), the forerunner of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in 1952. The management of the Pinatubo Volcano eruption crisis of 1991-92 marks the highest point in the development of volcanic disaster mitigation in the country. State-of-the-art volcano monitoring techniques and instruments were applied; the eruption was accurately predicted; hazards zonation maps were prepared and disseminated a month before the violent explosions; an alert and warning system was designed and implemented; and the disaster response machinery was mobilized on time. The unprecedented magnitude and lingering nature of the hazards, however, and their widespread, long-term impacts have sorely tested the capability of the country's volcanic disaster mitigation systems. In particular, the lahar threat has triggered controversies and put decision makers in a dilemma of choosing between adaptive versus confrontational/control approaches. At least three strategies have been articulated and adopted in varying degrees and forms: (1) the establishment of a lahar monitoring-warning-evacuation system to deal with the lahar problem on an emergency basis; (2) relocation of settlements from the hazard zones; and (3) installation of engineering countermeasures to control/divert the lahar flows and protect settlements. A combination of the three appears to be the best, but the most effective and least costly mix remains to be determined.