Assessing energy, environmental, and economic tradeoffs in intermodal freight transportation

This paper presents an energy and environmental network analysis model to explore tradeoffs associated with freight transport. The geospatial model uses an intermodal network built by the authors to connect various modes (rail, road, water) via intermodal terminals. Routes along the network are characterized not only by temporal and distance attributes, but also by cost, energy, and emissions attributes (including emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and oxides of nitrogen). Decision-makers can use the model to explore tradeoffs among alternative route selection across different modal combinations, and to identify optimal routes for objectives that feature energy and environmental parameters (e.g., minimize carbon dioxide emissions). The model is demonstrated with three case studies of freight transport along the U.S. eastern seaboard.     

Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: An exploratory study

Freight transportation activities are responsible for a large share of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Various freight transportation modes have significantly different impacts on air quality and environmental sustainability, and this highlights the need for a better understanding of interregional freight shipment mode choices. This paper develops a binomial logit market share model to predict interregional freight modal share between truck and rail as a function of freight and shipment characteristics. This model can be used to estimate the impacts of various factors, such as oil price, on shippers’ mode choice decisions. A set of multiyear freight and geographical information databases was integrated to construct regression models for typical freight commodities. The atmospheric impact levels incurred by different freight modal choice decisions are analyzed to provide insights on the relationship among freight modal split, oil price change, and air quality.

Implications:

Freight transportation has become a major source of energy consumption and air pollution, and emissions rates vary significantly across different modes. Understanding freight shipment mode choice under various economic and engineering factors will help assess the environmental impacts of freight shipment systems at the national level. This paper develops a binomial logit model for two dominating modes (truck and rail) and shows how this model is incorporated into an environmental impact analysis. The framework will be useful to policy makers to assess the impacts of freight movements on air quality and public health and to mitigate those adverse impacts.     

Emissions Tradeoffs among Alternative Marine Fuels: Total Fuel Cycle Analysis of Residual Oil,Marine Gas Oil,and Marine Diesel Oil

Abstract

Worldwide concerns about sulfur oxide (SO_x) emissions from ships are motivating the replacement of marine residual oil (RO) with cleaner, lower-sulfur fuels, such as marine gas oil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO). Vessel operators can use MGO and MDO directly or blended with RO to achieve environmental and economic objectives. Although expected to be much cleaner in terms of criteria pollutants, these fuels require additional energy in the upstream stages of the fuel cycle (i.e., fuel processing and refining), and thus raise questions about the net impacts on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide [CO₂]) because of production and use. This paper applies the Total Energy and Environmental Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model to conduct a total fuel cycle analysis of RO, MGO, MDO, and associated blends for a typical container ship. MGO and MDO blends achieve significant (70–85%) SO_x emissions reductions compared with RO across a range of fuel quality and refining efficiency assumptions. We estimate CO₂ increases of less than 1% using best estimates of fuel quality and refinery efficiency parameters and demonstrate how these results vary based on parameter assumptions. Our analysis suggests that product refining efficiency influences the CO₂ tradeoff more than differences in the physical and energy parameters of the alternative fuels, suggesting that modest increases in CO₂ could be offset by efficiency improvements at some refineries. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of greenhouse gas tradeoffs associated with fuel switching and other emissions control policies.     

Investigation of spatial trends and neurochemical impacts of mercury in herring gulls across the Laurentian Great Lakes

Herring gulls (Larus argentatus) bioaccumulate mercury (Hg) but it is unknown whether they are exposed at levels of neurological concern. Here we studied brain tissues from gulls at five Great Lakes colonies and one non-Great Lakes colony during spring of 2001 and 2003. Total brain Hg concentrations ranged from 0.14 to 2.0 μg/g (dry weight) with a mean of 0.54 μg/g. Gulls from Scotch Bonnet Island, on the easternmost edge of the Great Lakes, had significantly higher brain Hg than other colonies. No association was found between brain Hg concentration and [3H]-ligand binding to neurochemical receptors (N-methyl-d-aspartate, muscarinic cholinergic, nicotinic cholinergic) or nicotinic receptor α-7 relative mRNA expression as previously documented in other wildlife. In conclusion, spatial trends in Hg contamination exist in herring gulls across the Great Lakes basin, and herring gulls accumulate brain Hg but not at levels associated with sub-clinical neurochemical alterations.     

A multimedia environmental model of chemical distribution: fate, transport, and uncertainty analysis

This paper presented a framework for analysis of chemical concentration in the environment and evaluation of variance propagation within the model. This framework was illustrated through a case study of selected organic compounds of benzo[alpha]pyrene (BAP) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in the Great Lakes region. A multimedia environmental fate model was applied to perform stochastic simulations of chemical concentrations in various media. Both uncertainty in chemical properties and variability in hydrometeorological parameters were included in the Monte Carlo simulation, resulting in a distribution of concentrations in each medium. Parameters of compartmental dimensions, densities, emissions, and background concentrations were assumed to be constant in this study. The predicted concentrations in air, surface water and sediment were compared to reported data for validation purpose. Based on rank correlations, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the influence of individual input parameters on the output variance for concentration in each environmental medium and for the basin-wide total mass inventory. Results of model validation indicated that the model predictions were in reasonable agreement with spatial distribution patterns, among the five lake basins, of reported data in the literature. For the chemical and environmental parameters given in this study, parameters associated to air-ground partitioning (such as moisture in surface soil, vapor pressure, and deposition velocity) and chemical distribution in soil solid (such as organic carbon partition coefficient and organic carbon content in root-zone soil) were targeted to reduce the uncertainty in basin-wide mass inventory. This results of sensitivity analysis in this study also indicated that the model sensitivity to an input parameter might be affected by the magnitudes of input parameters defined by the parameter settings in the simulation scenario. Therefore, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for environmental fate models was suggested to be conducted after the model output was validated based on an appropriate input parameter settings.     

Modeling the atmospheric transport and deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in North America

The atmospheric fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) was simulated for the year 2000 in North America using a SMOKE/CMAQ-based chemical transport model that was modified for this purpose. The 1999 USEPA emission inventories of PCDD/Fs and criteria pollutants were used. The 1995 Canadian emission inventory of criteria pollutants and the 1995 Canadian area source emissions for PCDD/Fs were used with the 2000 Canadian point source emissions. Modifications to CMAQ involved coupling it with dual organic matter (OM) absorption and black carbon (BC) adsorption models to calculate PCDD/F gas–particle partitioning. The model satisfactorily reproduced the particle bound fractions at all rural sites for which there were measured data and across the whole domain, the modeled vs. measured differences in particle bound fractions were less than 20% for nearly all congeners. The model predicted ambient air PCDD/F concentrations were also consistent with measurements. Simulated deposition fluxes were within 58% of direct measurements. PCDD/F atmospheric depositions to each of the Great Lakes were estimated for the year 2000. The results indicate that approximately 76% of the total deposition of PCDD/Fs to the Great Lakes (in W-TEQ, or toxic equivalent units as defined by the World Health Organization) is attributed to PCDD/Fs absorbed into OM in aerosol. For all of the lakes, more than 92% of all deposition is particle phase wet deposition and only 5–8% is particle phase dry deposition. Wet deposition from the gas phase is negligible. Of the 17 toxic PCDD/F congeners, the Cl_4–5DD/F compounds contribute approximately 70% to the total atmospheric deposition to the Great Lakes. The seasonal changes in the PCDD/F deposition flux track variations in ambient temperature.     

Assessment of environmental endocrine disruptors in bald eagles of the Great Lakes

Environmental endocrine disruption in wildlife has primarily focused on estrogenic/androgenic end points and their antagonists. We describe here the work that has occurred within the Great Lakes of North America that has used the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) as a sentinel species of the effects of environmental toxicants, including endocrine disruption. Our data suggests that population level effects of hormone disrupting chemicals, not necessarily estrogen/androgen mimics and their antagonists, have been associated with reproductive and teratogenic effects observed in the bald eagle population within the Great Lakes Basin. Additional laboratory and field studies are necessary to further clarify the role of environmental endocrine disruptors on reproduction in avian populations. The use of sea eagles (Haliaeetus spp.) as biosentinels of pollution in other regions of the world is also discussed.     

An Intelligent Emissions Controller for Fuel Lean Gas Reburn in Coal-Fired Power Plants

ABSTRACT

The application of artificial intelligence techniques for performance optimization of the fuel lean gas reburn (FLGR) system is investigated. A multilayer, feedforward artificial neural network is applied to model static nonlinear relationships between the distribution of injected natural gas into the upper region of the furnace of a coal-fired boiler and the corresponding oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions exiting the furnace. Based on this model, optimal distributions of injected gas are determined such that the largest NO_x reduction is achieved for each value of total injected gas. This optimization is accomplished through the development of a new optimization method based on neural networks. This new optimal control algorithm, which can be used as an alternative generic tool for solving multidimensional nonlinear constrained optimization problems, is described and its results are successfully validated against an off-the-shelf tool for solving mathematical programming problems. Encouraging results obtained using plant data from one of Commonwealth Edison's coal-fired electric power plants demonstrate the feasibility of the overall approach.

Preliminary results show that the use of this intelligent controller will also enable the determination of the most cost-effective operating conditions of the FLGR system by considering, along with the optimal distribution of the injected gas, the cost differential between natural gas and coal and the open-market price of NO_x emission credits. Further study, however, is necessary, including the construction of a more comprehensive database, needed to develop high-fidelity process models and to add carbon monoxide (CO) emissions to the model of the gas reburn system.     

PCBs in sediments of the Great Lakes--distribution and trends, homolog and chlorine patterns, and in situ degradation

A region-wide data analysis on polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the sediment of the Great Lakes reveals a total accumulation of approximately 300 ± 50 tonnes, representing a >30% reduction from the 1980s. Evidence of in situ degradation of sediment PCB was found, with estimated t_1/2 of 11 and 17 years, at two open water locations in Lake Ontario. The relative abundance of heavy homologs as well as para-chlorines decreases with increasing depth, while the opposite is true for medium and light homologs and ortho-chlorines. In Lake Michigan, the vertical pattern features enrichment of heavier congeners and reduction of ortho-chlorines in deeper sediment layers, opposite to the trend in Lake Ontario. PCBs decrease log-linearly with increasing latitude and longitude. Air deposition of PCBs to lake sediment decreases at about 0.077 ng cm⁻² yr⁻¹ per degree latitude (N) for the geographic region extending from the Great Lakes to within the Arctic Circle.     

An Environmental Decision-Making Tool for Evaluating Ground-Level Ozone-Related Health Effects

Abstract

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O₃) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O₃ concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O₃ precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O₃ season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NO_x emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NO_x emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.     

Assessment of decadal changes in sediment contamination in a large connecting channel (Detroit River,North America)

Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn) and organic contaminants (PCBs, PAHs) were investigated in samples from the Detroit River (Great Lakes, North America) in 1999 and 2008/09 collected using a stratified random sampling design. Getis–Ord geospatial analysis was used to further establish locations of areas demonstrating significantly high and low contaminant concentrations in the river. Based on the stratified random sampling design, a majority of the examined metals and organic contaminants demonstrated little or no trends with respect to regional sediment concentrations and river-wide mass balances over the investigated time interval. The Getis–Ord analysis revealed local scales of contaminated and clean areas which did not conform to the original strata used in the geostatistical sampling design. It is suggested that geospatial analyses such as Getis–Ord be used in the design of future sediment quality surveys to refine locations of strata that can simultaneously address sediment recovery over system-wide, regional and local spatial scales.     

Air concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in 2002–2004 at a rural site in the Great Lakes

Atmospheric PBDEs were measured on a monthly basis in 2002–2004 at Point Petre, a rural site in the Great Lakes. Average air concentrations were 7.0 ± 13 pg m^?3 for Σ₁₄BDE (excluding BDE-209), and 1.8 ± 1.5 pg m^?3 for BDE-209. Concentrations of 3 dominant congeners (i.e., BDE-47, 99, and 209) were comparable to previous measurements at remote/rural sites around the Great Lakes, but much lower than those at urban areas. Weak temperature dependence and strong linear correlations between relatively volatile congeners suggest importance of advective inputs of gaseous species. The significant correlation between BDE-209 and 183 implies their transport inputs associated with particles. Particle-bound percentages were found greater for highly brominated congeners than less brominated ones. These percentages increase with decreasing ambient temperatures. The observed gas/particle partitioning is consistent with laboratory measurements and fits well to the Junge–Pankow model. Using air mass back-trajectories, atmospheric transport to Point Petre was estimated as 76% for BDE-47, 67% for BDE-99, and 70% for BDE-209 from west–northwest and southwest directions. During the same time period, similar congener profiles and concentration levels were found at Alert in the Canadian High Arctic. Different inter-annual variations between Point Petre and Alert indicate that emissions from other regions than North America could also contribute PBDEs in the Arctic. In contrast to weak temperature effect at Point Petre, significant temperature dependence in the summertime implies volatilization emissions of PBDEs at Alert. Meanwhile, episodic observations in the wintertime were likely associated with enhanced inputs through long-range transport during the Arctic Haze period.     

Compromising economic cost and air pollutant emissions of municipal solid waste management strategies by fuzzy multiobjective optimization model

Municipal solid waste management (MSWM) is an important environmental challenge and subject in urban planning. A sustainable MSWM strategy should consider not only economic efficiency but also life-cycle assessment of environmental impact. This study employs the fuzzy multiobjective linear programming (FMOLP) technique to find the optimal compromise between economic optimization and pollutant emission reduction for the MSWM strategy. Taichung City in Taiwan is evaluated as a case study. The results indicate that the optimal compromise MSWM strategy can reduce significant amounts of pollutant emissions and still achieve positive net profits. Minimization of the sulfur oxide (SO_x) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions are the two major priorities in achieving this optimal compromise strategy when recyclables recovery rate is lower; however, minimization of the carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM) emissions become priority factors when recovery rate is higher.

Implications: This paper applied the multiobjective optimization model to find the optimal compromise municipal solid waste management (MSWM) strategy, which minimizes both life-cycle operating cost and air pollutant emissions, and also to analyze the correlation between recyclables recovery rates and optimal compromise strategies. It is different from past studies, which only consider economic optimization or environmental impacts of the MSWM system. The result shows that optimal compromise MSWM strategy can achieve a net profit and reduce air pollution emission. In addition, scenario investigation of recyclables recovery rates indicates that resource recycling is beneficial for both economic optimization and air pollutant emission minimization.     

Estimating preferences for non-market attributes of aquaculture and sustainable seafood production: methods and empirical applications

If aquaculture is to promote sustainable seafood production, the public must be willing to accept associated tradeoffs. Tradeoffs may include impacts on a variety of environmental and social attributes. Public preferences for aquaculture may differ according to type of operation, species, region, and other factors. Stated preference methods can assist policymakers in designing balanced, beneficial, and widely-supported aquaculture projects. This paper discusses the use of stated preference methodology to assess tradeoffs associated with aquaculture. An application to sustainable seafood production highlights both the methodology and results associated with such methods.     

Generating a geospatial database of U.S. regional feedstock production for use in evaluating the environmental footprint of biofuels

The potential environmental effects of increased U.S. biofuel production often vary depending upon the location and type of land used to produce biofuel feedstocks. However, complete, annual data are generally lacking regarding feedstock production by specific location. Corn is the dominant biofuel feedstock in the U.S., so here we present methods for estimating where bioethanol corn feedstock is grown annually and how much is used by U.S. ethanol biorefineries. We use geospatial software and publicly available data to map locations of biorefineries, estimate their corn feedstock requirements, and estimate the feedstock production locations and quantities. We combined these data and estimates into a Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) for years 2005–2010. We evaluated the performance of the methods by assessing how well the feedstock geospatial model matched our estimates of locally-sourced feedstock demand. On average, the model met approximately 89 percent of the total estimated local feedstock demand across the studied years—within approximately 25-to-40 kilometers of the biorefinery in the majority of cases. We anticipate that these methods could be used for other years and feedstocks, and can be subsequently applied to estimate the environmental footprint of feedstock production.

Implications: Methods used to develop the Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) provide a means of estimating the amount and location of U.S. corn harvested for use as U.S. bioethanol feedstock. Such estimates of geospatial feedstock production may be used to evaluate environmental impacts of bioethanol production and to identify conservation priorities. The BFGD is available for 2005–2010, and the methods may be applied to additional years, locations, and potentially other biofuels and feedstocks.     

Minimax Regret Analysis for Municipal Solid Waste Management: An Interval-Stochastic Programming Approach

Abstract

In this study, an interval minimax regret programming (IMMRP) method is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. It improves on the existing interval programming and minimax regret analysis methods by allowing uncertainties presented as both intervals and random variables to be effectively communicated into the optimization process. The IMMRP can account for economic consequences under all possible scenarios without any assumption on their probabilities. The developed method is applied to a case study of long-term MSW management planning under uncertainty. Multiple scenarios associated with different cost and risk levels are analyzed. Reasonable solutions are generated, demonstrating complex tradeoffs among system cost, regret level, and system-failure risk. The method can also facilitate examination of the difference between the cost incurred with identified strategy and the least cost under an ideal condition. The results can help determine desired plans and policies for waste management under a variety of uncertainties.     

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products found in the Great Lakes above concentrations of environmental concern

The monitoring of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) has focused on the distribution in rivers and small lakes, but data regarding their occurrence and effects in large lake systems, such as the Great Lakes, are sparse. Wastewater treatment processes have not been optimized to remove influent PPCPs and are a major source of PPCPs in the environment. Furthermore, PPCPs are not currently regulated in wastewater effluent. In this experiment we evaluated the concentration, and corresponding risk, of PPCPs from a wastewater effluent source at varying distances in Lake Michigan. Fifty-four PPCPs and hormones were assessed on six different dates over a two-year period from surface water and sediment samples up to 3.2 km from a wastewater treatment plant and at two sites within a harbor. Thirty-two PPCPs were detected in Lake Michigan and 30 were detected in the sediment, with numerous PPCPs being detected up to 3.2 km away from the shoreline. The most frequently detected PPCPs in Lake Michigan were metformin, caffeine, sulfamethoxazole, and triclosan. To determine the ecological risk, the maximum measured environmental concentrations were compared to the predicted no-effect concentration and 14 PPCPs were found to be of medium or high ecological risk. The environmental risk of PPCPs in large lake systems, such as the Great Lakes, has been questioned due to high dilution; however, the concentrations found in this study, and their corresponding risk quotient, indicate a significant threat by PPCPs to the health of the Great Lakes, particularly near shore organisms.     

Effectiveness in the Use of Natural Gas for the Reduction of Atmospheric Emissions: Case Study—Industrial Sector in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago,Chile

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to quantify the potential of natural gas to reduce emissions from stationary combustion sources by analyzing the case study of the metropolitan region of Santiago, Chile. For such purposes, referential base scenarios have been defined that represent with and without natural gas settings. The method to be applied is an emission estimate based on emission factors. The results for this case study reveal that stationary combustion sources that replaced their fuel reduced particulate matter (PM) emissions by 61%, sulfur oxides (SO_x) by 91%, nitrogen oxides (NO_x) by 40%, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) by 10%. Carbon mon-oxide (CO) emissions were reduced by 1%. As a result of this emission reduction, in addition to reductions caused by other factors, such as a shift to cleaner fuels other than natural gas, technological improvements, and sources which are not operative, emission reduction goals set forth by the environmental authorities were broadly exceeded.     

Trajectory analysis of wet deposition at Whiteface Mountain: A sensitivity study

Meteorological trajectory analysis, MAP3S precipitation chemistry data, and hourly precipitation data at Whiteface Mountain (WFM) were used to determine the source direction of sulfate deposited in precipitation for 1978. A sensitivity study was done on source direction from different trajectory models, using different transport layers, and different precipitation information to determine the time deposition occurred. Results obtained from the different precipitation information indicate that precipitation data in 6-h increments or less are essential to correctly identify the trajectories associated with the wet deposition. Bias resulted when trajectories were not only associated with wet deposition. The direction of source regions, defined by 30° sectors, was much less dependent on the trajectory model or transport layer. Results suggest that over one-third of the wet sulfate deposition at WFM in 1978 arrived from the west-southwest, passing through the eastern Great Lakes region.