The Indian Ocean tsunami and private donations to NGOs

Non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) are widely believed to raise their flag in humanitarian hotspots with a strong media presence in order to attract higher private donations. We assess this hypothesis by comparing the changes in donations between US‐based NGOs with and without aid operations in the four countries most affected by the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004. Simple before‐after comparisons tend to support the hypothesis that ‘flying the flag’ helps attract higher private donations. However, performing a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences (DDD) approach, we find only weak indications that private donors systematically and strongly preferred NGOs with operations in the region. Extended specifications of the baseline regressions reveal that our major findings are robust. NGO heterogeneity matters in some respects, but the DDD results hold when accounting for proxies of the NGOs’ reputation and experience.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸引发了新一轮海啸预警系统的研究。简述了地震海啸预警的原理，分析了海啸数值模拟的一些基本方法，综述了目前世界上多个国家海啸预警系统的建设情况，通过对我国海啸灾害研究现状的分析，明确了我国当前海啸防灾减灾工作的主要任务。     

地震预警技术综述

地震预警技术是为了适应减轻地震灾害的要求而产生的，其技术原理是利用电磁波与地震波的速度差，以及地震P波与S波的速度差来实现地震发生后的及时预警。论述了目前国内外应用地震预警技术、配置地震预警系统的情况，对应用该技术所产生的效益作了介绍，对其进一步的发展前景进行了展望。     

Farmers' perceptions of implementation of climate variability disaster preparedness strategies in Central Uganda

This paper examines smallholder farmers' perceptions of the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness strategies in Mpigi district in Central Uganda. Furthermore, existing community early actions against climate change disasters were investigated. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions at the community level. Using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 16, data obtained through semi-structured interviews were subjected to quantitative analysis to generate percentages for several variables and cross-tabulation analyses between selected variables. Farmers perceived prolonged droughts, increased pests and diseases outbreaks in crops and livestock as a consequence of climate change as the major climate change disasters. They considered the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness at community and village level as inadequate. This triggered implementation of various early actions by farmers as responses to climate change disasters. These actions constitute an informal community-based early warning system against climate change disasters.     

从印度洋地震海啸看中国的巨灾风险

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸给沿岸国家造成了严重灾难,其主要原因是缺乏必要的防范。中国历史上巨灾频发,今后仍存在比较严重的巨灾威胁。预测我国有11个巨灾高风险区,巨灾种类主要为特大洪水、大地震、强台风和特大风暴潮以及大区域持续性严重干旱。建立巨灾防御体系是今后我国减灾工作的重心。     

基于网络的突发性灾害预警及救灾系统——以雪灾为例

自然灾害是不可避免的,为减少自然灾害给人类带来的损失,以ArcIMS为平台,引入模糊神经网络构建了雪灾预测模型,建立了基于网络的突发性灾害联动预警及救灾系统.系统可以自动/半自动地进行不同灾害等级的分类,发出灾害预警警报,并在此基础上结合气象对灾害诱发条件的预报,提出预防的工程技术措施,方便具有不同用户权限的用户使用.     

I will not go,I cannot go: cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia,Africa, and Oceania

While much work has been invested in addressing the economic and technical basis of disaster preparedness, less effort has been directed towards understanding the cultural and social obstacles to and opportunities for disaster risk reduction. This paper presents local insights from five different national settings into the cultural and social contexts of disaster preparedness. In most cases, an early warning system was in place, but it failed to alert people to diverse environmental shocks. The research findings show that despite geographical and typological differences in these locations, the limitations of the systems were fairly similar. In Kenya, people received warnings, but from contradictory systems, whereas in the Philippines and on the island of Saipan, people did not understand the messages or take them seriously. In Bangladesh and Nepal, however, a deeper cultural and religious reasoning serves to explain disasters, and how to prevent them or find safety when they strike.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

Building resilience to El Niño‐related drought: experiences in early warning and early action from Nicaragua and Ethiopia

Forecast‐based drought early warning/early action has been hampered by both inadequate decision‐making frameworks and a lack of appropriate funding mechanisms. Rural communities in Nicaragua and Ethiopia that have participated in resilience‐building interventions of varying durations demonstrate the value of community‐based actions informed by early warning, forecasts and drought management advice, both before and during the agricultural season. While drought affected all crops negatively, participants were better able to mitigate impacts, were more organised in accessing relief and recovered more effectively. These results are consistent with other research on the cost/benefit of anticipatory actions, use of climate services and appropriate drought management advice. They also confirm the importance of embedding short‐term early action in long‐term resilience‐building. Despite this, formal systems, national and local, remain essentially unimplemented. Systems being developed at global level now need to be operationalised and translated into effective local drought management standard operating procedures for the most vulnerable.     

A proposed framework of key activities and processes in the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management

This paper proposes an empirically grounded framework for examining the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management activities and processes pertaining to predictable disasters within a developed country. The two‐stage framework provides a single model composed of important preparedness and recovery initiatives, as well as activities and processes derived from empirical data collected for case studies from Australia: the ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires in the state of Victoria in February 2009; and Cyclone Larry in March 2006. The framework enables a variety of analyses, including the generation of insights into disaster management preparedness and recovery in the context of events in wealthy developed countries. The paper combines two empirical examples, a series of bushfires and a severe tropical cyclone, to enhance understanding of, and to contribute to better, disaster preparedness and recovery in the future. The paper contributes to the growing literature on disasters, preparedness, recovery and associated logistics, and other issues.     

Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines

Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wider development planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations. It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to disaster management problems.     

General overview of the disaster management framework in Cameroon

Efficient and effective disaster management will prevent many hazardous events from becoming disasters. This paper constitutes the most comprehensive document on the natural disaster management framework of Cameroon. It reviews critically disaster management in Cameroon, examining the various legislative, institutional, and administrative frameworks that help to facilitate the process. Furthermore, it illuminates the vital role that disaster managers at the national, regional, and local level play to ease the process. Using empirical data, the study analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions of disaster managers. Its findings reveal inadequate disaster management policies, poor coordination between disaster management institutions at the national level, the lack of trained disaster managers, a skewed disaster management system, and a top‐down hierarchical structure within Cameroon's disaster management framework. By scrutinising the disaster management framework of the country, policy recommendations based on the research findings are made on the institutional and administrative frameworks.     

韧性理论视角下贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理刍议

韧性理论引入灾害风险管理领域,为世界防灾减灾实践提供了新理念,并在国内外韧性城市社区建设中得到广泛应用,但针对乡村地区,尤其是高脆弱性的贫困村韧性社区建设的研究还较为鲜见.该文以韧性理论为基础,结合乡村振兴战略规划,通过对贫困村社会生态系统特征的分析,探讨了新时期我国贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理发展方向及特点.研究...     

泥石流早期识别与监测预警研究进展探讨

近年来,受极端地震和极端天气的影响,泥石流灾害日益加剧,山区城镇泥石流风险问题逐渐引起大众的关注。泥石流的早期识别和监测预警作为防灾减灾的有效途径之一,已在山区城镇及重大工程建设区发挥重要的减灾作用。分析总结泥石流早期识别与监测预警技术方法和理论的目的在于掌握其发展现状与问题,进一步为山区城镇泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供有效应急对策。同时指出改进当前存在问题可为后期发展提供参考依据。本文通过文献综述法在阅读大量文献基础上,从技术与设备、预警理论与模型和监测预警体系3个方面对泥石流早期识别和监测预警研究进行回顾与评述,并针对其不足提出了加强深度学习在泥石流早期识别中运用,注重构建地面因素与天上因素耦合的泥石流预警模型,完善泥石流灾害应急系统的初步看法。     

山区铁路沿线泥石流泥位自动监测预警系统

泥位预警是泥石流灾害预警的方法之一,目前主要有接触式和非接触式泥石流泥位报警两种方法。探讨了一种便于安装、适合山区铁路沿线泥石流监测预警的接触式泥位自动监测预警系统的构建及应用方法。首先探讨了泥石流泥位监测系统的工作原理及其软件、硬件的组成,其次探讨了泥位预警阈值确定方法,最后根据现场试验观测情况及所遇到的问题提出了泥位监测系统的应用方法。该泥石流泥位监测预警系统能实现泥山区铁路沿线石流泥位信息数据采集和传输的网络化、实时化、自动化、数字化(可视化),并根据监测信息及时向铁路相关部门发出预警信号。     

雷击参数在线监录与SPD动态预警管理——“黑匣子”研究与应用

人类赖以生存的地球表面每小时约连续发生2000个雷暴。随着科学技术发展到如今的信息时代,任何场所(特别是雷电多发地区)都有可能发生雷击灾害,许多雷击事故往往是由于低压供、配电线路与信息传输线路感应传导雷电高电压引起的。尽管闪电定位系统得到了广泛的应用,雷电防护有相应的国际、国家与行业技术规范,但发生雷击事故现场仍然不能获取实质性的雷击参数,某些雷灾鉴定缺乏科学的定量数据,人们希望能有像飞机黑匣子那样的智能设备。所研究的黑匣子是一种在线监测、记录、还原雷击参数的智能仪表,对特定环境设施(如:避雷针、低压供、配电线路与信息传输线路)入侵的雷击具备在线实时监测、记录并还原雷击参数雷电流幅值、持续时间、极性(雷击电流走向)与波形的功能;且具有对在线电涌保护器(surge protective device,SPD)的动态预警管理效能。     

数字江苏中的防震减灾数字系统

为推进经济的可持续与跨越式发展，配合 “数字江苏” 的建设，最大限度地减轻地震灾害所造成的损失，在 “数字江苏” 中建设防震减灾数字系统势在必行。 本文从防震减灾在可持续与跨越式发展战略中的地位和作用、防震减灾数字系统的组成、 “数字江苏” 中如何包含防震减灾数字系统、防震减灾数字系统建设进程及展望等几方面进行了探讨。     

Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

加强综合灾害风险研究,提高迎对灾害风险能力——从第6届国际综合灾害风险管理论坛看我国的综合减灾

综述了第6届国际IIASA-DPRI综合灾害风险管理论坛的主要内容，并就中国综合灾害风险管理对策提出了具体的建议。本届论坛的主题是：风险与商业和产经界面临的挑战。论坛除主题报告外，共设置了16个分会场，就综合灾害风险信息共享平台（DRH）的建设、产经界如何迎对灾害风险、地震与洪水灾害风险的综合管理、灾害风险教育与减灾意识的养成、综合灾害风险管理的理论与方法论探讨，以及土耳其国家综合灾害风险管理的经验与教训等进行了深人的研讨。针对上述进展，从我国减灾工作现状，提出从三个方面加强我国综合减灾与灾害风险管理工作，即：各级政府在加强应急管理工作的同时，要高度重视从综合的角度完善减灾战略、规划和能力建设；全面改进产经界迎对灾害风险的能力，特别是非国有中小企业防御灾害风险的能力，以及大型国有企业灾害自保或参保机制的完善；加强综合灾害风险管理研究。