Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.     

A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures: a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe

Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.     

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.     

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Prescriptive conflict prevention analysis: An application to the 2021 update of the Austrian flood risk management plan

Flood events have become more frequent in Europe, and the adaptation to the increasing flood risks is needed. The Flood Directive set up a series of measures to increase European resilience, establishing Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) at the level of the river basin district as one relevant action. In order to efficiently fulfil this objective, the involvement of stakeholders as well as the analysis of their roles, responsibilities, and demands has been considered to be crucial to develop FRMPs. As a result, the hypothesis tested in this paper is that a consensus solution for the 2021 update Austrian Flood Risk Management Plan is feasible. To demonstrate this, both in-depth interviews and questionnaires to key Austrian stakeholders are implemented. The information collected in both participatory techniques are then used to run a conflict prevention analysis. The results show that (a) improving the coordination among regions and including better land-use planning approaches are preferable to a hypothetical business as usual scenario; and (b) a consensus solution for the 2021 update Austrian FRMP might be achievable on the basis of both a deep discussion on the state-of-the art and green infrastructure development.     

The environmental cost of pesticide usage in the United Kingdom

Organic pesticides have been used for more than 50 years, and have made a major contribution to the profound alteration of agricultural practice which has occurred during this period. Among the many effects arising from these developments in agriculture, various environmental changes have been identified, which have been the subject of considerable public debate and disagreement. Attention has focussed particularly on the popularly assumed adverse influence of pesticides on the natural flora and fauna. This review examines the position in the United Kingdom where interest in wildlife has always been extensive and where many amateur observations and professional scientific studies have been brought to bear on the problem. It differentiates between ‘direct’ effects which may be attributed to particular uses of certain compounds and ‘indirect’ effects normally arising from changes in habitat or food supply brought about by pesticides. The approach adopted has been to assess the effects of pesticide use on populations rather than attempting to place a financial estimate on any adverse environmental effect attributed to pesticides. Systems of surveillance are described and their ability to detect adverse effects is assessed. The difficulty of correlating such effects with pesticide use is examined. In general, it is concluded that other than for insects the levels of surveillance have been adequate to detect adverse effects on fauna and flora arising from pesticide use. Where direct effects have been discerned in the past, action has, where possible, been taken to rectify the position and it is suggested that this will continue. Overall there is little evidence that the survival of individual species is threatened by the direct effects of pesticides. Indirect effects are neither simple to delineate nor readily corrected and it is recommended that more research be carried out to develop the ability to assess their influence.     

英国公海保护的政策措施研究及设立公海保护区的利弊分析

介绍了英国负责海洋保护的主要管理机构,研究了英国海洋保护的相关法律与政策,分析了英国关于建立公海保护区的立场。从我国利益角度出发,对设立公海保护区所产生的利弊进行了分析。     

On the relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and regional-scale primary PM emissions for the United Kingdom: an issue of subsidiarity

A site-specific particulate matter PM source apportionment model has been used to estimate the contributions from local primary PM emissions, regional primary PM emissions and the regional background to PM_2.5 concentrations at 102 monitoring site locations and to the centres of 1 km × 1 km grid squares across the United Kingdom. The local primary PM contributions have then been compared with Europe-wide urban PM_2.5 increments estimated at 50 km × 50 km in European-scale integrated assessment models. It is concluded that Europe-wide PM increments used in policy analyses grossly underestimate urban PM concentrations obtained from the site-specific PM source apportionment model for the United Kingdom. Europe-wide urban PM_2.5 increments estimated at 5 km × 5 km scale are significantly improved, particularly for London, but underestimate those for smaller towns and cities by factors of 2–3. These underestimations have important air quality policy ramifications. Although environmental policies may well be best formulated at the European scale, the underpinning air quality modelling may be best carried out at the local scale.     

绿化政府行动:英国的环境与发展综合决策机制及启示

英国的环境与发展综合决策机制是一种政策与战略行动推动的模式,“绿化政府行动”是1990年发起的以实现中央政府部门的综合决策的战略行动。首先述评了该行动的主要机制的发展情况,随后阐述了它对于综合决策机制研究的几点启示。     

Vulnerability of exporting nations to the development of a carbon label in the United Kingdom

Carbon labels inform consumers about the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) released during the production and consumption of goods, including food. In the future consumer and legislative responses to carbon labels may favour goods with lower emissions, and thereby change established supply chains. This may have unintended consequences.We present the carbon footprint of three horticultural goods of different origins supplied to the United Kingdom market: lettuce, broccoli and green beans. Analysis of these footprints enables the characterisation of three different classes of vulnerability which are related to: transport, national economy and supply chain specifics.There is no simple relationship between the characteristics of an exporting country and its vulnerability to the introduction of a carbon label. Geographically distant developing countries with a high level of substitutable exports to the UK are most vulnerable. However, many developing countries have low vulnerability as their main exports are tropical crops which would be hard to substitute with local produce.In the short term it is unlikely that consumers will respond to carbon labels in such a way that will have major impacts in the horticultural sector. Labels which require contractual reductions in GHG emissions may have greater impacts in the short term.     

Historical assessment of Chinese and Japanese flood management policies and implications for managing future floods

Floods are among the world's most devastating natural disasters, causing immense damage and accounting for a large number of deaths world-wide. Good flood management policies play an extremely important role in preventing floods. It is well known that China has more than 5000 years of experience in flood management policy beginning with the reign of DaYu and Gun. Although culturally related, Japanese flood management developed differently from that of China. Under rapid development of civil engineering technology, flood management was achieved primarily through the construction of dams, levees and other structures. These structures were never adequate to stop all floods, and recent climate change driven extreme events are ever more frequently overwhelming such infrastructure. It is important to take a historical perspective of Japanese and Chinese flood management in order to better manage increasingly frequent extreme events and climate change. We present insights taken from an historical overview of Japanese and Chinese flood management policies in order to guide future flood risk management policy.     

Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise

This study provides guidelines for strategic management in industrial oil plants linked to uncertainties of climate change through the development of integrated planning methodology with focus on coastal flooding events caused by relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research site is in Redonda Island, located in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil, and since 1960, it constitutes an industrial oil plant facility. The region suffers interaction with storms and meteorological tides from extratropical cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean, being vulnerable to risks of disasters, floods, and coastal erosion. A Program on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Relative Sea Level Rise (“Programa de Avaliação e Adaptação às Vulnerabilidades de Elevação do Nível Relativo do Mar—PAAVENRM”) was developed to avoid compromising the regional and local development in the industrial system of the island, which is an ad hoc instrument designed to anticipate and reduce risks, damages, and losses by occurrence of extreme climatic events in coastal areas prone to flooding caused by RSLR. Results from computer simulation modeling indicate 37 prospective qualitative scenarios that consolidate the conditions of future climate vulnerability of the plant, starting from United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) information for RSLR up to 2100. Three quantitative forecasting scenarios were simulated, under boundary conditions preset for different altimetric ranges subject to submersion, based upon ordinary and extraordinary tides measured in the area in relation to RSLR, which allowed the evaluation of the industrial infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, three thematic maps were elaborated for the planning of specific coastal protection interventions. Percentages of physical damage and property losses were estimated. The importance of applying guidelines for medium and long-term corporate strategy management, integrating the risk of flooding, the rigging of civil defense systems, meteorology, and of the plans, programs, and existing systems and others to be developed is highlighted. From this perspective, the proposed scenarios help to identify the most relevant alternatives for mitigation and adaptation under technical criteria for decision making in the study area.     

The influence of long term trends in pollutant emissions on deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and exceedance of critical loads in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, as with other European countries, land-based emissions of NO_x and SO₂ have fallen significantly over the last few decades. SO₂ emissions fell from a peak of 3185 Gg S in 1970 to 344 Gg S in 2005 and are forecast by business-as-usual emissions scenarios to fall to 172 Gg by 2020. NO_x emissions were at a maximum of 951 Gg N in 1970 and fell to 378 by 2005 with a further decrease to 243 Gg N forecast by 2020. These large changes in emissions have not been matched by emissions changes for NH₃ which decreased from 315 Gg N in 1990 to 259 in 2005 and are forecast to fall to 222 by 2020. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen deposition over the United Kingdom during a 15-year time period (1990–2005) and compared with measured deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium from the national monitoring network. Wet deposition of nitrogen and sulphur was found to decrease more slowly than the emissions reductions rate. This is attributed to a number of factors including increases in emissions from international shipping and changing rates of atmospheric oxidation. The modelled time series was extended to a 50-year period from 1970 to 2020. The modelled deposition of SO_x, NO_y and NH_x to the UK was found to fall by 87%, 52% and 25% during this period. The percentage area of sensitive habitats in the United Kingdom for which critical loads are exceeded is estimated to fall from 85% in 1970 to 37% in 2020 for acidic deposition and from 73% to 49% for nutrient nitrogen deposition. The significant reduction in land emissions of SO₂ and NO_x focuses further attention in controlling emissions from international shipping. Future policies to control emissions of ammonia from agriculture will be required to effect further significant reductions in nitrogen deposition.     

FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009.Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures.The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated.Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system.The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.     

对美军装备采购合同管理的分析与借鉴

装备采购合同管理是装备采购管理的重要组成部分,是军方依法执行合同、实现合同权利的主要手段。对美军装备合同管理进行分析,进而提出若干有益于我军装备采购合同管理的借鉴意见。     

Providing the evidence base for environmental risk assessments of novel farm management practices

An environmental risk assessment of a new agricultural management practice depends upon the provision of empirical evidence of cause and effect. This will invariably be derived from comparative experiments testing the null hypothesis that a change in management will have no effect on an assessment endpoint (the metric on which policy decisions will be based). Crucial to the design of these experiments is the answer to the question of ‘what to measure?’. The selection of these measurement endpoints and the design of sampling protocols will be determined by the properties of the environmental stressors associated with the change in management practice and the taxa that are exposed to their effects, as well as logistic and financial considerations. The rationale for deciding what to measure in the context of these various criteria is reviewed. For a measurement endpoint to be a valid indicator of the risk of a negative impact of management on the assessment endpoint, a predictable and quantifiable link must be made between the two. It should also be recorded at the appropriate taxonomic resolution to safely assume that all the constituent parts will both respond in a similar way to the management stressor and have a similar effect on the assessment endpoint. Protocols must be designed with the spatial and temporal properties of the management stressor and the measurement endpoint in mind and a consideration of the statistical power of the experiment to detect changes. Where there is a lag in the response time of a measurement endpoint to a stressor due to inertia in the system, an accurate measurement of the effect of the novel management may require experiments running over several years. Throughout, care must be taken that the statistical and biological validity of a sampling regime is not compromised in the face of logistic and financial pressures. The Farm Scale Evaluations of the management of Genetically Modified Herbicide Tolerant crops are presented as a case study to illustrate the concepts discussed.     

The significance of information frameworks in integrated risk assessment and management

We present an analysis of frameworks for information on integrated risk assessment and management, focusing on issues related to environmental and health risks of chemicals and their regulation at the EU level. By frameworks we understand the conceptual and procedural constructs within which information is assimilated, processed and given meaning. We examine different aspects of integrated risk information and how these are handled in different frameworks. We mainly address integration in relation to policy, specifically in risk evaluation and risk–benefit considerations, in interaction of assessment and management, and in policy level uncertainties. We show how the policy level influences the frameworks and hence the level and use of integrated assessments, and how they interact with new information and scientific frameworks in EU chemicals control such as the REACH legislation. We conclude that by paying better attention to the nature of the framework it is possible to focus on the most crucial aspects of integration. In this way it is possible to develop appropriate flexible assessments that focus on key complexities and issues without getting entrenched in details of minor significance for the policy problem at hand.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.