Revisiting a 37 years abandoned fertilizer experiment on Nardus grassland in the Czech Republic

A set-aside experiment on sub-alpine Nardo-Caricion rigidae grassland was identified in the Giant Mts. (Krkonoše, Karkonosze), in which Ca, N and P fertilizers were each applied at three rates on five occasions from 1965 to 1967; since that time plots remained abandoned. In 2004, the effect of all fertilized treatments on sward structure was still visible 37 years after the last fertilizer application. Avenella flexuosa and Anthoxanthum alpinum were the dominant species in phosphorus fertilized plots whereas Nardus stricta was the dominant species in the control as well as in the limed and nitrogen fertilized treatments. The biomass production of A. alpinum was higher in all fertilized treatments than in the control but significantly only in one P treatment. The lowest amount of dead aboveground biomass was found in all P fertilized plots followed by two Ca treatments. P, Ca and NO₃⁻ concentrations in the biomass were highest in P treatments and Ca concentration was higher, but non-significantly differing from control, also in two Ca treatments. Soil pH was highest in two Ca treatments and was affected by soil Ca concentration.     

Adaptation pathways in planning for uncertain climate change: Applications in Portugal,the Czech Republic and the Netherlands

Adaptation pathways are developed to design adaptive policies to handle climate change uncertainty. Use of this tool varies across planning practices and adaptation challenges and adjusting the tool to particular practices can foster its adequate use. To gain insight into the use of adaptation pathways, we compared four initiatives (one each in Portugal and the Czech Republic and two in the Netherlands) with regard to design choices made. We found six design choices which need to be considered when adjusting adaptation pathways. Design choices about the geographic scale, inclusion of sectors, the generation and delineation of adaptation options, specification of possible pathways, the related performance metrics and the type of assessment are interdependent, but they are also influenced by contextual aspects. Analysis of the institutional diversity, planning culture and framing shows that the use of adaptation pathways is flexible enough to be adjusted for diverging planning practices. However, the tool is best suited to deliver local adaptation solutions, and adequate use depends on consensus about the adaptation problem, setting objective thresholds and determining uncertainty about future change. We conclude that understanding the customised use of tools for local planning practices is essential for adaptive policy design.     

A framework for evaluating flood risk governance

Calls to strengthen flood risk governance are echoed across Europe amidst a growing consensus that floods will increase in the future. Accompanying the pursuit of societal resilience, other normative agendas relating legitimacy (e.g. accountability and public participation), and resource efficiency, have become attached to discussions concerning flood risk governance. Whilst these represent goals against which ‘success’ is socially and politically judged, lacking from the literature is a coherent framework to operationalise these concepts and evaluate the degree to which these are achieved. Drawing from cross-disciplinary and cross-country research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD, this paper presents a framework for evaluating the extent to which flood risk governance arrangements support societal resilience, and demonstrate efficiency and legitimacy. Through empirical research in England, this paper critically reflects on the value of this approach in terms of identifying entry points to strengthen governance in the pursuit of these goals.     

基于降水Z指数的朝鲜降水及旱涝时空特征

利用TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM）3B43月降水数据,并结合降水Z指数,研究朝鲜1998—2018年的降水和旱涝时空格局。结果表明：TRMM与站点观测降水数据有显著的相关性。朝鲜降水季节性特征明显,57.29%的降水集中在夏季,空间上自东北部沿海岸线向东南递增。朝鲜的区域综合旱涝等级基本处于正常状态,偏旱和偏涝发生的频率最高,其次是大旱和大涝,极旱和极涝发生的频率最低,夏季和冬季干旱发生最为频繁,而洪涝在秋季频发。朝鲜北部发生旱涝事件的频率明显高于南部,咸镜山脉和盖马高原是旱涝的多发地区,温泉平原则最不易受到旱涝影响。春季、夏季和秋季均呈现洪涝强度增强的趋势。夏季洪涝强度加剧的趋势明显,中北部地区通过95%的显著性检验。     

Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.     

Disaster risk reduction and international catastrophe risk insurance facility

The objectives of this research are to investigate resource loss effects from flooding and to provide recommendations on disaster risk reduction policies. This research utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which found that losses of resources had major negative impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP). Transitioning from national catastrophe insurance fund to an international risk pooling approach is discussed, and as the Global Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has not yet been established, our proposal suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (ACRIF) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three catastrophic bonds (ASEAN?+?3 CAT bonds) as effective means of reducing fiscal liabilities arising from natural disasters, also effectively enhancing disaster risk reduction. These tools are complementary to Catastrophe Risk Swaps which are innovative global financial adaptation strategies designed to make communities and governments more resilient to disaster damages. They are ex-ante risk financing tools and sources of liquidity for damage restoration and economic recovery, which facilitates flexibility among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) and other governments requiring special assistance. Most importantly, utilization of insurance and catastrophic bonds promotes the achievement of set objectives of global adaptation strategies, sustainable economic growth, and climate resilient development.     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

Individual preferences for reducing flood risk to near zero through elevation

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Adaptation investments are required in order to limit the projected increase in natural disaster risks. Adaptation measures can reduce risk partially or completely eliminate risk. The literature on behavioural economics suggests that individuals rarely undertake measures that limit risk partially, while they may place a considerable value on measures that reduce risk to zero. This is studied for a case of adaptation to climate change and its effects on flood risk in the Netherlands. In particular, we examine whether households are willing to invest in elevating newly built structures when this is framed as eliminating flood risk. The results indicate that a majority of homeowners (52%) is willing to make a substantial investment of €10,000 to elevate a new house to a level that is safe to flooding. Differences between willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance and WTP for risk elimination through elevation indicate that individuals place a considerable value on the latter adaptation option. This study estimates that the “safety premium” which individuals place on risk elimination is approximately between €35 and €45 per month. The existence of a safety premium has important implications for the design of climate change adaptation policies. The decision to invest in elevating homes is significantly correlated with the expected negative effects of climate change, perceptions of flood risks, individual risk attitudes, and living close to a main river.     

Eclogites with a short-lived granulite facies overprint in the Moldanubian Zone, Czech Republic: petrology, geochemistry and diffusion modelling of garnet zoning

The petrology and geochemistry of a newly discovered suite of high-pressure garnet + clinopyroxene-bearing rocks from the Monotonous Series of the Moldanubian Zone of the Bohemian Massif, southwest Czech Republic have been investigated. Three types [common eclogites, quartz ± kyanite ± (clino)zoisite eclogites and garnet-hornblende-clinopyroxenites] are distinguished by petrography and geochemistry. All underwent a significant degree of partial breakdown under granulite and amphibolite facies conditions during exhumation. Important features include the growth of orthopyroxene in breakdown domains after garnet and omphacite and anorthite + spinel ± corundum ± exceedingly peraluminous sapphirine replacing kyanite. Garnet zoning and inclusion patterns support a prograde evolution from low pressures for at least some of the samples. The post-eclogite stage granulite facies overprint indicates that high temperatures prevailed during exhumation, but preservation of zoning in some garnets and the results of diffusion modelling suggest that this overprint took place over a very short time-scale. The geochemical and petrological results allow characteristic differences to be recognized between these eclogites and metabasites found in other tectonic units of South Bohemia and consequently the assigning of all high-pressure rocks to a single, now disrupted, tectonic unit is a gross simplification that seriously misrepresents the tectono-metamorphic history of the region.     

Long-term dynamics of biomass production, soil chemical properties and plant species composition of alluvial grassland after the cessation of fertilizer application in the Czech Republic

The resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to recover after termination of perturbation, of highly productive Alopecurus grassland was investigated after the cessation of the following long-term fertilizer treatments applied under a two- or three-cut management regime: unfertilized control, PK, N₁₀₀PK, N₂₀₀PK, N₃₀₀PK and N₄₀₀PK. Annual application rates of pure nutrients per hectare were 0–400 kg for N, 40 kg for P and 100 kg for K. The dynamics of biomass production were measured for 16 years and the effect of former fertilizer treatments on soil chemical properties, biomass chemical properties, plant species composition and species richness were investigated 16 years after the last application of fertilizers. It was concluded that 16 years was not long enough to achieve resilience in plant-available soil P and K concentrations, N/P ratios in the plant biomass or plant species composition, but that it was long enough to achieve resilience in species richness. In the case of biomass production the effect of former fertilizer treatments was apparent in 10 of the 16 seasons investigated, indicating that resilience in biomass production must be evaluated using data from more than 1 vegetation season. The results of the study stress the necessity for long-term research because of high year-to-year variability in biomass production as well as long-term after-effects of fertilizer treatments in alluvial grassland.     

Modeling residual flood risk behind levees,Upper Mississippi River,USA

Flood protection from levees is a mixed blessing, excluding water from the floodplain but creating higher flood levels (“surcharges”) and promoting “residual risk” of flood damages. This study completed 2D hydrodynamic modeling and flood-damage analyses for the 459 km² Sny Island levee system on the Upper Mississippi River. These levees provide large economic benefits, at least $51.1 million per year in prevented damages, the large majority provided to the agricultural sector and a small subset of low-elevation properties. However these benefits simultaneously translate into a large residual risk of flood damage should levees fail or be overtopped; this risk is not recognized either locally in the study area nor in national policy. In addition, the studied levees caused surcharges averaging 1.2–1.5 m and locally as high as 2.4 m, consistent with other sites and studies. The combined hydraulic and economic modeling here documented that levee-related surcharge + the residual risk of levee overtopping or failure can lead to negative benefits, meaning added long-term flood risk. Up to 31% of residential structures in the study area, 8% of agricultural structures, and 22% of commercial structures received negative benefits, totaling $562,500 per year. Although counterintuitive, structures at the margin of a leveed floodplain can incur negative benefits due to greater flood levels resulting from levees purportedly built to protect them. National levee policies and plans for local projects are unbalanced, crediting levee benefits but rarely fully planning for adverse impacts or considering alternatives.     

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.     

Policy implementation of catchment-scale flood risk management: Learning from Scotland and England

Recent years have seen a gradual adoption of a “catchment-scale” approach to flood risk management into European policy-making which, amongst other objectives, promotes rural land use change to reduce flood risk. While some exploratory studies of land managers’ attitudes exist, research is lacking on how public policies can be mobilised locally to implement these ideas. Two local initiatives were analysed in the transboundary River Tweed basin in Scotland and England during which public authorities negotiated with land managers. A combination of documents (N = 21) and interviews (N = 63) forms the basis of the data analysed. The results showed that implementation is highly dependent on the local policy framework, the activities of implementers, and land managers’ responses to (combination of) policy instruments. Several factors were identified influencing implementation such as devolution arrangements (i.e. from national to regional/local), the level of local interest on flood risk, local attitudes to compromise and collaboration, available policy instruments, and the existence of participatory catchment organisations. With limited scope for stand-alone regulatory action or funding in the short term, synergies and measures promoting co-benefits in flood risk management should be further sought in the Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans, as well as in cross-compliance and the new agri-environment-climate strategies of the common agricultural policy.     

A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures: a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe

Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.     

Genetic amniocentesis following multifetal pregnancy reduction to twins: Assessing the risk

Fifty-three patients who elected to reduce their pregnancies to a twin gestation in our centre are known to have subsequently undergone genetic amniocentesis. Five of these patients lost their entire pregnancy following the genetic amniocentesis procedure. This is equivalent to a 9·4 per cent pregnancy loss rate for reduced twin gestations in comparison with an expected loss rate of 2 per cent for non-reduced twin gestations.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.