气候变化的历史责任与碳排放限额分配

对主要国家、九大区域及附件Ｉ国家与非附件Ｉ国家两大集团的二氧化碳历史累积排放量进行了估算,对目前主要的碳排放限额分配方法与原则进行了评述,指出人均原则是应坚持的分配原则。针对以当年还是以1990年为人口基年以及考虑历史责任与否提出了4种人均碳排放限额分配模式,并用其计算了全球九大区域以及中国的2050年碳排放限额。结果表明,考虑历史责任与否对碳排放限额分配结果的影响相当大,而且只有采用考虑历史责任并以1990年为人口基年这一人均分配模式,中国2050年的碳排放限额才可能高于其预测排放量     

Agricultural adaptation of climate change in China.

This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.     

气候变化背景下小兴安岭天然林的模拟研究

建立的林窗模型ＮＥＷＣＯＰ,被证明适合于模拟小兴安岭天然森林的分布、生长和演替,并可用于跟踪现有森林的生长和演替动态。在ＧＩＳＳ２ｘＣＯ^２和ＧＦＤＬ２ｘＣＯ^２气候变化情景下对现有林分的模拟实验显示：小兴安岭森林对气候变化具有敏感性；尽管森林对不同气候变化情景的响应明显不同,但基本趋势是一致的,即蒙古栎等阔叶树在森林中将占越来越大的比例     

中国工业二氧化硫排放变化指标分解研究

基于生产理论框架,应用基于Shephard输出距离函数的方法,将我国SO2排放变化指标分解为技术效率影响、技术变化影响、输入增加影响、输出结构影响等5项指标,并对中国28个地区2000~2006年SO2排放变化面板数据进行了实证分析.结果表明:引起我国2000~2006年SO2排放增加的主要因素是工业能源消耗、资本投入及产出结构变化,技术变化则在一定程度上减少了工业SO2排放.“十五”期间国家工业SO2排放控制政策,对工业SO2排放控制技术进步及技术效率的提高有明显的促进作用.在区域层面上,东、中、西3个地区的技术变化都促进了工业SO2的减排,其中东部地区由于技术变化所导致的SO2减排较为明显.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges

We assessed the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used to capture a range of potential changes in climate. Using changes in maximum daily precipitation, we estimated changes to the peak flow rates for the 100-year return period for 2,097 watersheds. These estimates were then combined with information from the National Bridge Inventory database to estimate changes to bridge scour vulnerability. The results indicate that there may be significant potential risks to bridges in the United States from increased precipitation intensities. Approximately 129,000 bridges were found to be currently deficient. Tens of thousands to more than 100,000 bridges could be vulnerable to increased river flows. Results by region vary considerably. In general, more bridges in eastern areas are vulnerable than those in western areas. The highest GHG emissions scenarios result in the largest number of bridges being at risk. The costs of adapting vulnerable bridges to avoid increased damage associated with climate change vary from approximately $140 to $250 billion through the 21st century. If these costs were spread out evenly over the century, the annual costs would be several billion dollars. The costs of protecting the bridges against climate change risks could be reduced by approximately 30% if existing deficient bridges are improved with riprap.     

Acidification and change of physicochemical propertiesof Mt. Heng soils in last 34 years

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Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around ?14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.     

Potential effects of climate change and rising CO2 on ecosystem processes in northeastern U.S. forests

Forest ecosystems represent the dominant form of land cover in the northeastern United States and are heavily relied upon by the region’s residents as a source of fuel, fiber, structural materials, clean water, economic vitality, and recreational opportunities. Although predicted changes in climate have important implications for a number of ecosystem processes, our present understanding of their long-term effects is poor. In this study, we used the PnET-CN model of forest carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and water cycling to evaluate the effects of predicted changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on forest growth, C exchange, water runoff, and nitrate ( $ {\text{NO}}^{ - }_{3} $ ) leaching at five forest research sites across the northeastern U.S. We used four sets of statistically downscaled climate predictions from two general circulation models (the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Parallel Climate Model) and two scenarios of future CO₂ concentrations. A series of model experiments was conducted to examine the effects of future temperature, precipitation, CO₂, and various assumptions regarding the physiological response of forests to these changes. Results indicate a wide range of predicted future growth rates. Increased growth was predicted across deciduous sites under most future conditions, while growth declines were predicted for spruce forests under the warmest scenarios and in some deciduous forests when CO₂ fertilization effects were absent. Both climate and rising CO₂ contributed to predicted changes, but their relative importance shifted from CO₂-dominated to climate-dominated from the first to second half of the twenty-first century. Predicted runoff ranged from no change to a slight decrease, depending on future precipitation and assumptions about stomatal response to CO₂. Nitrate leaching exhibited variable responses, but was highest under conditions that imposed plant stress with no physiological effects of CO₂. Although there are considerable uncertainties surrounding predicted responses to climate change, these results provide a range of possible outcomes and highlight interactions among processes that are likely to be important. Such information can be useful to scientists and land managers as they plan on means of examining and responding to the effects of climate change.     

Climate change and mining in Canada

Climate is an important component of the operating environment for the Canadian mining sector. However, in recent years mines across Canada have been affected by significant climatic hazards, several which are regarded to be symptomatic of climate change. For the mining sector, climate change is a pressing environmental threat and a significant business risk. The extent to which the mining sector is able to mitigate its own impact and adapt to climate change will affect its long-term success and prosperity, and have profound economic consequences for host communities. This paper draws upon case studies conducted with mining operations in Canada involving in-depth interviews with mining professionals and analysis of secondary sources to characterize the vulnerability of the Canadian mining industry to climate change. Five key findings are discussed: i) mines in the case studies are affected by climate events that are indicative of climate change, with examples of negative impacts over the past decade; ii) most mine infrastructure has been designed assuming that the climate is not changing; iii) most industry stakeholders interviewed view climate change as a minor concern; iv) limited adaption planning for future climate change is underway; v) significant vulnerabilities exist in the post-operational phase of mines. This paper argues for greater collaboration among mining companies, regulators, scientists and other industry stakeholders to develop practical adaptation strategies that can be integrated into existing and new mine operations, including in the post-operational phase.     

全球季风动力学与气候变化

本文结合现代季风和古季风研究成果对全球季风进行了一个全面回顾,并引入了一个全球季风的新定义,该定义考虑了三维分布、终极成因,强调了季节性气压梯度变化对季风环流的影响,并同时使用了环流与降水来描述季风强度。我们在从构造到季节内的宽广时间尺度上来考察全球季风气候变化。全球季风的性质包括全球不均一性、区域差异性、季节性、准周期性、不规则性、不稳定性和穿时性。对全球季风动力学来说,太阳辐射、地球轨道参数、下垫面性质和海-陆-气相互作用十分重要。本文还讨论了季风变率在不同时间尺度上的主要驱动因子以及多时间尺度之间的动力学关系。自然过程与人类活动影响对我们理解未来全球季风行为都非常重要。     

Invasive species policy and climate change: social perceptions of environmental change in the Mediterranean

Climate change is raising significant issues for European invasive species policy. As natural and anthropogenic systems experience changing climatic conditions, opportunities for the distribution and establishment of invasive exotic plant species are projected to increase. Such environmental changes will provide significant challenges for the strategic planning and management of natural, agricultural and urban spaces. In this study, the perceptions of the impacts of invasive exotic plant species are examined and compared to perceptions of other environmental issues on the islands of Mallorca, Sardinia and Crete. A survey of key stakeholders was undertaken on the Mediterranean islands with the use of questionnaires and in-depth interviews. While there is a widespread tolerance of environmental change associated with the establishment of invasive species on the islands, local stakeholders raise concerns about specific impacts and the policies in place to respond to future risk. To build resilience within natural and anthropogenic systems to the changing climatic circumstances, a need exists for integrative environmental policy that supports local capacity to manage invasive species within Mediterranean landscapes.     

Regulating carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC): U.S. and California case studies

As lifecycle emissions accounting becomes more widely used in policy, it is important to understand how it has been applied. This paper analyses policy-making for two U.S. fuel regulations—the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)—that were pioneering not only in using life cycle assessment (LCA) in performance-based environmental regulations, but especially for including emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). The case studies in this paper focus, in particular, on the decision to include ILUC in lifecycle emissions accounting. Tracing the development of these policies shows the key role of environmental policy entrepreneurs in advocating for ILUC emissions accounting during policy formulation. Moreover, it highlights a paradox in the use of science: although ILUC policy proponents were motivated by best available research, they were also politically enabled by scientific uncertainty and lack of understanding. Understanding this political dimension of decision-making is valuable for scholars as well as practitioners facing similar decisions.     

Groundwater dependent ecosystems. Part II. Ecosystem services and management in Europe under risk of climate change and land use intensification

Groundwater in sufficient amounts and of suitable quality is essential for potable water supplies, crop irrigation and healthy habitats for plant and animal biocenoses. The groundwater resource is currently under severe pressure from land use and pollution and there is evidence of dramatic changes in aquifer resources in Europe and elsewhere, despite numerous policy measures on sustainable use and protection of groundwater. Little is known about how such changes affect groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), which include various aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems above ground and inside the aquifer. Future management must take this uncertainty into account. This paper focuses on multiple aspects of groundwater science, policy and sustainable management. Examples of current management methods and practices are presented for selected aquifers in Europe and an assessment is made of the effectiveness of existing policies such as the European Water Framework Directive and the Habitat Directive in practice and of how groundwaters and GDEs are managed in various conditions. The paper highlights a number of issues that should be considered in an integrated and holistic approach to future management of groundwater and its dependent ecosystems.     

Limitations of cleaner production programmes as organisational change agents I. Achieving commitment and on-going improvement

This is the first in a two-part paper that discusses the results of an evaluation of a 2-year ‘cleaner production’ (CP) demonstration project undertaken in New Zealand (NZ). The project's scale and methods were consistent with international best practice and the methods used were consistent with those advocated in traditional CP or ‘pollution prevention’ (PP) guides and manuals. On the surface, the project could be considered to have been successful. Like other apparently successful demonstration projects carried out elsewhere, the demonstration businesses identified a range of options that improved their environmental, economic and social performance (including savings of over NZ$4 million per annum, and significant reductions in materials, water and energy use, and improvements in productivity).However, a more in-depth evaluation of the project raised significant questions about the ability of traditional CP/PP programme components to bring about durable change. The evaluation identified a set of key internal organisational factors that strongly contributed towards the uptake of CP and affected the potential for on-going improvement. They were commitment, leadership, support, communication, staff involvement and programme design. This part of the paper (Part I) provides an overview of the project, as well as the methodology used in the evaluation. It also includes a discussion of the results particularly as they relate to commitment and on-going improvement. Part II discusses the remaining key internal organisational factors. It also presents a framework that could potentially be used to enhance the performance of CP or similar types of programmes, particularly with regard to the key factors identified.     

Bamboo in climate change and rural livelihoods

Climate change negotiations, assessments, and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines have all but bypassed bamboo. Disallowing stands of tree-like bamboos as forests disparages their function in the carbon (C) cycle, and disregards pillars of smallholder livelihoods. Exposing bamboo not as a panacea, but as an overlooked option for C conservation, sequestration, and adaptation, we screen details of distribution, morphology, growth, physiology, and impacts for pertinence to climate change. Additional to 40 million hectares of existing bamboo forests, many potential host countries for C projects harbor suitable sites. Definitions, methods and default values, such as the root/shoot- ratio, biomass conversion factors, allometric equations and sampling variables need adjusting. Rapid maturation, persistent rhizomes, a rich palette of species, and wind-firmness may mitigate risk. Bamboos can accommodate agro-and urban forestry, and reign in unsustainable shifting cultivation. Distribution functions of bamboo biomass stocks and growths do not deviate drastically from those of trees. If anything, bamboo stocks are slightly lower, and growths slightly higher, with medians of 87 t*ha⁻¹ and 10.5 t*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, respectively. However, bamboo’s outstanding socio-economic effects might well determine its future in mitigation and adaptation. Early, continuous yields, selective harvesting on even small parcels of land, low capital and high labor intensity, virtually 100% conversion efficiency to about 1,500 products, and, typically, 75% of economic returns benefiting rural people are advantageous attributes. Regional studies on suitability, silviculture, yields, economics, risk, and C assessment would strengthen bamboo’s function as ‘the poor man’s timber’ and promote its niche as the smallholder’s C sink.