The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n = 42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n = 85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions.     

Testing the Generality of Bird-Habitat Models

Bird-habitat models are frequently used as predictive modeling tools—for example, to predict how a species will respond to habitat modifications. We investigated the generality of the predictions from this type of model. Multivariate models were developed for Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Raven (Corvus corax), and Buzzard (Buteo buteo) living in northwest Scotland. Data were obtained for all habitat and nest locations within an area of 2349 km². This assemblage of species is relatively static with respect to both occupancy and spatial positioning. The area was split into five geographic subregions: two on the mainland and three on the adjacent Island of Mull, which has one of United Kingdom's richest raptor fauna assemblages. Because data were collected for all nest locations and habitats, it was possible to build models that did not incorporate sampling error. A range of predictive models was developed using discriminant analysis and logistic regression. The models differed with respect to the geographical origin of the data used for model development. The predictive success of these models was then assessed by applying them to validation data. The models showed a wide range of predictive success, ranging from only 6% of nest sites correctly predicted to 100% correctly predicted. Model validation techniques were used to ensure that the models' predictions were not statistical artefacts. The variability in prediction success seemed to result from methodological and ecological processes, including the data recording scheme and interregional differences in nesting habitat. The results from this study suggest that conservation biologists must be very careful about making predictions from such studies because we may be working with systems that are inherently unpredictable.     

Sustainable cooperation as the challenge for a new coastal management paradigm

Coastal management is a collective action. As such, it depends for its effective implementation on the cooperation of a multitude of stakeholders, i.e. civic organizations, economic interest groups, environmental groups, governmental agencies, scientists and other individuals. Where ‘effective implementation’ implies the achievement of targeted objectives within targeted time horizons and ‘cooperation’ connotes that stakeholders elect to pursue cooperative strategies that may yield higher gains for all stakeholders instead of competitive strategies that may maximize individual benefits. Thus, the fundamental challenge of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) is to maximize the effectiveness of this management by maximizing and sustaining stakeholder cooperation. I submit that sustainable cooperation can be maximized and nurtured for its voluntariness only by a process-oriented, cooperative CZM. The alternative, outcome-oriented, normative CZM can force, directly or indirectly, cooperation but it cannot sustain it. My purpose in this paper, is to highlight arguments supporting this view as well as the analytical challenges of cooperative ICZM. Certain points are also viewed in the light of preliminary findings of a research project designed to probe these challenges.     

Testing the Reliability of the Benefit Function Transfer Approach

This article presents an experiment designed to test the reliability of the benefit function transfer approach using contingent valuation methods. The experiment uses data collected from anglers surveyed across eight contiguous Texas Gulf Coast bay regions over three distinct time periods. Results indicate that the benefit function transfer approach tends to over-estimate benefits, implying that, at least for the case of recreational saltwater fishing in Texas, the benefit function transfer approach is not reliable.     

Testing the Internal Consistency of Contingent Valuation Surveys

For an internal consistency check, one can examine WTP responses to different surveys. Holding an environmental problem constant, concave preferences imply WTPconcavein the success of a remedy. The same preferences imply WTPconvexin the magnitude of an environmental problem, assuming a successful remedy. Having opposite signed curvature of these two WTP patterns is general, not requiring concave preferences. For an adding-up test, an environmental commodity can be divided. Then, WTP for one part plus WTP for the second part, conditional on already having the first part, equals WTP for the whole, adjusted by an income effect.     

Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation

The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.     

Testing the ‘agonistic buffering’ hypothesis

Summary Data are presented from a 15-month study on triadic male-infant interactions (agonistic buffering) among wild Barbary macaques, and the agonistic buffering hypothesis reevaluated. The sociometrics of triadic interactions derived from the distribution of 535 interactions among individually known adult and subadult males showed that there were significant individual male differences in the frequency of initating and/or receiving triadic interactions, but there were no such differences between the high and low ranking male subgroups (Tables 2–4).Males did not choose each other equally for triadic encounters. Each male had a different set of three other males (out of 11 possible) that he preferred to approach for a triadic encounter; and each male received triadic approaches essentially from only three males (Tables 4 and 5). Each male showed a specific preference for which infant to select for participation in the triad, and in fact, males who preferred one another for triads also preferred to use the same infant in these encounters. These males that preferred each other and the same infant both had a special care-taking relationship with that preferred infant (Tables 6–7).Possessing an infant per se seemed to be irrelevant in whether a male would approach or be approached for a triad. In 78% of all triads, males separated immediately after termination of the triad. When the agonistic buffering hypothesis is reexamined against the data in this study, it appears that it cannot adequately accommodate the thesis that it serves to regulate dominant/subordinate relations among males. Rather males choose to participate with each other in agonistic buffering because, and by means of, a shared, common, and special care-taking relationship with the same infant. The indiscriminate use of the terminology agonistic buffering to describe multiple-male/infant interactions in this species should be dropped.     

Innovation and the dynamics of global warming

Global warming and the carbon cycle are a dynamic system with positive feedbacks. Fossil fuels are exhaustible resources. These two facts mean that innovation in clean energy technology, rather than mitigating global warming, can lead to a permanently higher temperature path. This paper explores the impact of innovation in the simplest model linking the economic theory of exhaustible resources with positive feedback dynamics in the carbon cycle.     

毒死蜱在土壤中的残留和淋溶动态

对土壤中毒死蜱的残留和淋溶动态进行了研究.结果显示,毒死蜱在土壤中的残留降解属于一级动力学反应,在土壤中的降解半衰期为63.0 d.通过土柱模拟淋溶试验,对毒死蜱在土壤中淋溶的影响因子进行了研究.结果表明,降水量对毒死蜱的淋溶影响较大,主要表现为降水水量增大, 毒死蜱在土层中的最大淋溶深度也随之增加, 出现浓度最高峰的土层深度也越大, 两者呈正相关关系.与降水量相比,降水强度对毒死蜱的淋溶的影响相对较小.     

Testing the limits of social resilience in ant colonies

Social resilience is the ability of Leptothorax ant colonies to re-assemble after dissociation, as caused, for example, by an emigration to a new nest site. Through social resilience individual workers re-adopt their spatial positions relative to one another and resume their tasks without any time being wasted in worker respecialisation. Social resilience can explain how an efficient division of labour can be maintained throughout the trials and tribulations of colony ontogeny including the, often substantial, period after the queen dies when the ability to conserve worker social relationships may be essential for efficiency to be maintained. The mechanism underlying social resilience is, therefore, expected to be robust even in the absence of many of the colony’s components, such as the queen, the brood and even a large proportion of the workers. Such losses are likely, given the ecology of this genus. Using sociotomy experiments, we found that social resilience can occur in the absence of the queen. Furthermore, the spatial component of social resilience can occur even when the queen, the brood, as well as a large proportion of the workers, are all absent simultaneously and hence many of the tasks are missing. We conclude, therefore, that social resilience is indeed robust. This does not, however, preclude worker flexibility in response to changes in task supply and demand. We propose a possible sorting mechanism based on worker mobility levels which might explain the robustness underlying this phenomenon. Received: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 1 April 2000     

Testing Hypotheses for the Success of Different Conservation Strategies

Abstract:  Evaluations of the success of different conservation strategies are still in their infancy. We used four different measures of project outcomes—ecological, economic, attitudinal, and behavioral—to test hypotheses derived from the assumptions that underlie contemporary conservation solutions. Our hypotheses concerned the effects of natural resource utilization, market integration, decentralization, and community homogeneity on project success. We reviewed the conservation and development literature and used a specific protocol to extract and code the information in a sample of papers. Although our results are by no means conclusive and suffer from the paucity of high-quality data and independent monitoring (80% of the original sample of 124 projects provided inadequate information for use in this study), they show that permitted use of natural resources, market access, and greater community involvement in the conservation project are all important factors for a successful outcome. Without better monitoring schemes in place, it is still impossible to provide a systematic evaluation of how different strategies are best suited to different conservation challenges.     

Population dynamics of the soft-shell clam Mya arenaria

A life table was constructed for Mya arenaria from Gloucester, Massachusetts, USA, based on schedules of age-specific fecundity and mortality determined under natural conditions. Mortality rates decrease with size and age in this species, with the period of maximum mortality occurring during the summer months. Mortality rates during the fall and winter were considerably lower, perhaps due to the inactivity of natural predators. The survivorship curve for M. arenaria approximates the Type 3 curve of Deevey (1947). Mean life expectancy is low in recently-settled clams, peaks when the individual reaches 30.0 to 34.9 mm (1 year of age) and remains fairly high for most of the remainder of life. The intrinsic rate of natural increase (r _max) is very high: 4.74. This enormous rate of potential increase is offset by high rates of larval mortality in the plankton. Unlike the reproductive values of most animals studied, those in M. arenaria peak late in life, well after the know age of first reproduction. This is probably the result of increased fecundity with age. The implications of this work in the area of resource management are discussed.     

Fluid dynamics at the margin of rotational control

Geophysicists have developed a perspective on the dynamical influence of Earth’s rotation, while most other areas of fluid dynamics can safely disregard rotation. In this essay the dominant turbulence and wave behaviors in the rotating and non-rotating fluid-dynamical realms are described, and particular attention is given to their borderlands, where rotational influences are significant but not dominant. Contrary to the inverse energy cascade of geostrophic turbulence toward larger scales, a forward energy cascade toward microscale dissipation develops within the borderlands from the breakdown of diagnostic force balances, frontogenesis, and frontal instabilities, and then it continues further through the small-scale non-rotating realm until it dissipates at the microscale.     

Molecular markers of heavy metal toxicity--a new paradigm for health risk assessment

Last decade has witnessed increased interest in studies dealing with molecular markers of health and disease expression of genes. Specific toxicant "signatures" have been detected using genome base technologies such as microarrays. Further toxins have been classified on the basis of these signatures. Knowledge on these signatures has helped in the identification of novel drug candidates. This review discusses the gene expression studies recently made on arsenic, cadmium, mercury, chromium, lead, copper, nickel, manganese, and other essential elements. Toxicogenomics standards and their organizations have also been briefly described. Although this information can not be considered as complete, recent reports from different laboratories on bacteria, fish, laboratory animals and humans have been summarized. It is expected that toxicogenomics data presented in this review will be helpful in planning and excretion of human health risk assessment programs.     

Hatching mode and latitude in marine gastropods: revisiting Thorson's paradigm in the southern hemisphere

For much of the last century the developmental mode of marine invertebrates, particularly of prosobranch gastropods, has been thought to reflect a latitudinal pattern known as Thorson's rule; the proportion of species with pelagic larvae decreases with increase in latitude. Although the predictions of this rule have been criticized recently, its validity along latitudinal transects in the world ocean still remains poorly tested. In the present work, we compare the frequency of occurrence of contrasting prosobranch hatching modes (pelagic versus benthic development) along two latitudinal gradients of the subequatorial coastline of South America: the southeast Pacific and the southwest Atlantic. The results are clearly contrasting. While the pattern observed along the Pacific (Chilean) coast fits the predictions of Thorson's rule very well, benthic development predominates all along the Atlantic coast, even at subtropical latitudes. This difference in observed patterns is attributable to the different compositions of the gastropod assemblages on each side of the South American continent, which are determined, in turn, by differences in the ecological conditions on the two sides of the continent. The scarcity of pelagic development among the Atlantic prosobranch gastropods reflects the near-continuous soft-bottom habitat there, and the consequent prevalence of predaceous, soft-bottom taxa that had acquired in their evolution more evolved, non-pelagic patterns of development. In contrast, the Pacific coast is much more heterogeneous, with a diverse mixture of benthic habitats, including rocky substrates that, in part, support grazing taxa. Our results indicate that two factors are important for Thorson's rule to be valid. First, the habitat needs to include rocky substrates, as soft-bottom habitats appear to favour non-pelagic development. Second, a diverse assemblage of taxa need to be compared to avoid the problem of phyletic constraints, which could limit the evolution of different developmental modes. Received: 23 May 2000 / Accepted: 13 October 2000     

Transplantation of the Subshrub Lotus scoparius: Testing the Home-Site Advantage Hypothesis

Abstract: The long-term success of restored populations may be jeopardized by the collection locality of transplants if they are ill matched to their new environment. The home-site advantage hypothesis predicts that the relative success of introduced populations will decrease as their genetic and environmental distance to the local native population increases. We evaluated this hypothesis for a geographically variable shrub, Lotus scoparius , in southern Californian coastal sage scrub by planting two common-garden experiments with seedlings from 12 source populations. The common-garden sites differed in environment and were each home to different source populations of the two taxonomic varieties, L. s. var. scoparius or L. s . var. brevialatus . We used allozyme data from each source population to calculate genetic distances between populations, and a combination of climatic data and soil traits to calculate environmental distances. At the more mesic, coastal common garden, cumulative fitness of transplants (survival × flower production) was inversely related to genetic distance between source and resident populations. At the more xeric, inland common garden, cumulative fitness (survival × size) decreased significantly with both genetic and environmental distance after one taxonomic variety was excluded from analyses. Geographic distance was only weakly correlated with genetic distance and had little value in predicting cumulative fitness of transplants. Our data support the home-site advantage hypothesis and the idea that mis-matching source populations of these genetically differentiated seed sources may result in lowered success of restored or constructed populations. The genetic and environmental similarities of source populations should be considered when source materials are chosen for transplantation.     

Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border

The "pyroclimatic hypothesis" proposed by F. Biondi and colleagues provides a basis for testable expectations about climatic and other controls of fire regimes. This hypothesis asserts an a priori relationship between the occurrence of widespread fire and values of a relevant climatic index. Such a hypothesis provides the basis for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence based on climatic control. Forests near the Mexico-United States border offer a place to test the relative influence of climatic and other controls in mountain ranges that are ecologically similar and subject to broadly similar top-down climatic influence, but with differing cultural influences. We tested the pyroclimatic hypothesis by comparing fire history information from the Mesa de las Guacamayas, a mountain range in northwestern Chihuahua, with previously published fire data from the Chiricahua Mountains, in southeastern Arizona, approximately 150 km away. We developed a priori hypothetical models of fire occurrence and compared their performance to empirical climate-based models. Fires were frequent at all Mesa de las Guacamayas study sites through the mid-20th century and continued uninterrupted to the present at one site, in contrast to nearly complete fire exclusion after 1892 at sites in the Chiricahua Mountains. The empirical regression models explained a higher proportion of the variability in fire regime associated with climate than did the a priori models. Actual climate-fire relationships diverged in each country after 1892. The a priori models predicted continuing fires at the same rate per century as prior to 1892; fires did in fact continue in Mexico, albeit with some alteration of fire regimes, but ceased in the United States, most likely due to changes in land use. The cross-border comparison confirms that a frequent-fire regime could cease without a climatic cause, supporting previous arguments that bottom-up factors such as livestock grazing can rapidly and drastically alter surface fire regimes. Understanding the historical patterns of climate controls on fire could inform the use of historical data as ecological reference conditions and for future sustainability.     

A model of nematode dynamics in the Westerschelde Estuary

We developed a time dynamic model to investigate the temporal dynamics of nematode community in the brackish zone of the Westerschelde Estuary. The biomass of four nematode feeding groups observed from March 1991 to February 1992 is used to calibrate the model. Using environmental data as the input, the model predicts the temporal modification and interrelation of four nematode feeding groups. Nematodes achieve a dominant position in the community because of their lower loss rate (in respiration, excretion and natural death). Predators which are deposit-feeding macrobenthos control the variations of dominant nematodes, such as omnivores and non-selective deposit feeders. Food availability causes modification only for rare nematodes such as epigrowth feeders and selective deposit feeders. Temperature is a factor affecting both predation death and a loss including respiration, excretion and natural death. Overall, the modification of nematode community by food availability is much lower than by predator. The macrobenthos in the Westerschelde Estuary decrease from upstream to the estuarine mouth. The stability and standing stock of nematode population follow the opposite gradient of their predators. They increase from upstream to the estuarine mouth.