大气扩散模型统计性确认评估

使用计算模型预测物理过程之前,必须对该计算模型进行论证,确认评估通过后才能用于物理状态和过程的计算和预测。讨论了基于数据统计属性的确认评估对面向大气扩散物理现象的计算模型之适用性;探究了模型评估工作的基本内容、关键概念和通用原则;给出了确认评估参数的定义、选择原则及示例;分析了评估度量指标的内涵和适用条件;探讨了可接受模型需要满足的指标准则及统计性确认评估指标的选用;最后,指出了基于统计度量的确认评估方法的改进方向。扩散模型评估理论的探讨有助于提高基于模型仿真的大气扩散研究的准确性,也有利于高精度模型和基准试验的设计、开发与遴选。     

船舶废气排放扩散模拟计算方法研究

基于船舶AIS数据的船舶废气排放评估计算模型,以高斯烟团扩散模型为核心,结合船舶航行和排放特征,构建移动船舶源排放烟团扩散模型。利用控制变量法,在其他变量参数相同条件下,分别设定不同风向、不同大气稳定度、不同高程平面,仿真模拟航行状态下的船舶排放烟团扩散至空间环境中的质量浓度分布情况,分析船舶在不同环境参数下的扩散特征。结果表明,仿真模拟结果与实际气体空间质量浓度分布情况相符。通过在深圳市盐田港区布设船舶废气排放岸基固定嗅探监测设备,对港区进、离港和过往船舶进行大气污染物排放组分(SO2、CO2、NO、NO2)全天在线实时监测,以SO2作为试验样本气体,船舶排放的SO2排放至监测站的模拟质量浓度与实际监测质量浓度标准误差为19.81%,在合理的误差范围内,验证了船舶废气排放扩散模拟计算方法的科学有效性。     

城市大气稳定度分级模型的研究

应用大气扩散模型计算大气污染物浓度时 ,大气稳定度的确定非常重要。综合考虑气温和总云量与日照强度之间的关系 ,建立了大气稳定度分级的模糊数学法 ;证明了应用该方法求大气稳定度的精度明显高于应用其它方法的精度 ;编写了简单适用的计算机程序 ,大大方便了该模型的应用。     

城市大气稳定度分级模型的研究

应用大气扩散模型计算大气污染物浓度时,大气稳定度的确定非常重要。综合考虑气温和总云量与日照强度之间的关系,建立了大气稳定度分级的模糊数学法;证明了应用该方法求大气稳定度的精度明显高于应用其它方法的精度;编写了简单适用的计算机程序,大大方便了该模型的应用。     

基于正交试验法的高斯扩散模型预测精度研究

为研究高斯扩散模型预测精度的影响因素,运用正交试验设计法,设计三因素五水平的正交试验,采用MATLAB软件和FDS软件分别得到高斯扩散模型理论预测值与模拟值,并引入归一化均方差NMSE将二者进行对比,采用极差分析以及方差分析法分析不同因素对高斯扩散模型预测精度的影响程度。研究结果表明：大气稳定度对高斯模型气体扩散浓度预测结果具有显著性影响,其次是气体种类,然后是气体初始密度。研究结果可为模型相关参数修正与改进提供借鉴。     

非点源LNG泄漏扩散过程模拟及危险区域分析

为了研究LNG泄漏扩散过程及危害,建立了引入时间参数的高斯烟羽混合模型,利用MATLAB工具对LNG泄漏扩散过程进行动态模拟,解决了高斯烟羽模型不能模拟连续泄漏源泄漏初期浓度分布的问题。提出了非点源高斯烟羽混合模型,可预测液池、大孔等非点源的泄漏扩散过程,并利用Burro 9号LNG泄漏扩散试验进行模型验证。研究了风速、大气稳定度等对LNG泄漏扩散所形成的危险区域的影响,结果表明:风速对LNG泄漏扩散的影响显著,风速越大,扩散越快,扩散达稳定后所形成的危险区域面积越小;大气越稳定,扩散越慢,危险区域面积越大。     

煤粒瓦斯瞬时扩散模型研究

为使扩散方程能够准确描述煤粒瓦斯涌出规律,首先依据相似理论和扩散第二定律建立瓦斯扩散系数计算方法,并结合试验数据得到扩散系数与时间的关系。然后基于此构建煤粒瓦斯瞬时扩散球状模型,运用分离变量法对模型进行求解,得到该模型的无穷级数解析解和模型系数的确定方法。最后通过计算值与试验值对比验证瞬时扩散模型的准确性,同时分析瞬时扩散模型与煤体复杂孔隙结构的关系。结果表明:扩散系数随时间的变化符合幂函数递减规律;构建的瞬时扩散模型能够准确描述煤粒瓦斯扩散规律,理论计算高度反映了试验结果;瞬时扩散模型可以从时空角度体现煤粒复杂的孔隙结构。因此该模型可用于计算瓦斯预测参数和研究瓦斯动力灾害形成过程。     

航天发射场液体推进剂的泄漏扩散模型研究

为了实现对有毒推进剂泄漏扩散浓度的快速估算,对液体推进剂偏二甲肼在发射场泄漏蒸发扩散的实际情况进行理论分析,建立扩散模型,并从泄漏源、沉积效应、地面反射、大气稳定度等方面对扩散模型进行完善;应用数值模拟方法进行仿真,将数值模拟结果与实验数据、理论计算结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:气体扩散模型与数值模拟及实验结果基本一致,但扩散模型计算结果偏小,这是由于推进剂进行了燃烧和氧化反应,扩散区域温度上升,大气稳定度降低,实际浓度更大。     

大气土壤耦合的埋地燃气管道泄漏扩散数值分析

为了研究埋地燃气管道泄漏燃气在非稳态泄漏条件下的扩散行为,基于燃气管道非稳态泄漏大孔模型,应用CFD分别求解土壤和大气扩散方程,通过丙烷地面扩散通量耦合了土壤和大气环境,进行了泄漏扩散的数值模拟,所得模拟计算结果与地上泄漏扩散数值模拟结果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:耦合模拟条件下,风速仍是影响丙烷扩散距离和高度的主要因素;温度和相对湿度对丙烷扩散有相对较小的影响;与埋地泄漏相比,不同条件下地上泄漏的扩散距离和扩散高度均有误差,水平扩散距离误差普遍较大,扩散高度个别情况下误差较大;地上泄漏条件下的模拟结果数值偏大,对事故的预测和评估准确性会产生显著影响。     

金属埋地管道腐蚀泄漏及大气扩散过程推理模型研究

为了定量评估埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏的风险,将贝叶斯网络和蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于计算管道腐蚀泄漏及扩散范围概率。建立了埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏贝叶斯网络,量化了各事件之间的关联。在已知先验概率的基础上,运用贝叶斯概率计算得到管道腐蚀泄漏的后验概率值。利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对泄漏后气体扩散范围进行了数值模拟,给出了主要模型变量的概率密度函数,得到了扩散区域范围概率分布特征。研究结果表明,管道腐蚀泄漏过程受输送介质和土壤腐蚀性、防腐措施有效性和大气扩散条件的影响,具有较大的不确定性。分析方法考虑了模型参数随机性对计算结果的影响,评估结果可以用于比较不同条件下埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏扩散的风险。     

A protocol for the evaluation of LNG vapour dispersion models

The international transport, storage and utilisation of LNG is growing rapidly. Whilst the LNG industry has an excellent safety record, the possibility of an accidental release cannot be discounted. Internationally-accepted standards, such as the 59A Standard of the US National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), provide direction on the assessment of LNG spill hazards and hazard range criteria which must be met. Modelling of the atmospheric dispersion of LNG vapour from accidental spills is one of the critical steps in such hazard analyses. This paper describes a comprehensive evaluation protocol devised for the 59A Standard, specifically for the assessment of LNG vapour dispersion models. The evaluation protocol is based on methodologies developed in previous European Union studies, which have been extended, significantly adapted and tailored to the specific requirements of the evaluation of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour. The protocol comprises scientific evaluation of the numerical and physical basis of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour, model verification, and validation; resulting in a comprehensive model evaluation report which includes qualitative and quantitative criteria for model acceptance. A supporting suite of validation data, and guidance on the use of this data, has also been produced. The NFPA 59A (2009) standard states that LNG vapour dispersion models are acceptable for use if they have been evaluated in accordance with this protocol.     

Concentration model for gas releases in buildings and the mitigation effect

In case of accidents involving releases of hazardous materials, calculating the gas dispersion is essential for assessing risks. In general, the leaked chemical is assumed to be instantly dispersed to the atmosphere if the leak occurs in the outdoor location. However, a different approach should be made for the incidents when sources are located inside a building. For the indoor release, the gas will be diluted prior to the release to the atmosphere and the gas release from a building to the atmosphere demands the application of another model before the dispersion calculation. The indoor release model calculates average indoor concentration and volumetric flowrate to the exterior. The model is fast and reasonably accurate compared to rigorous but time-consuming computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. The model results were compared with experimental data, and CFD simulation results both with simple geometry to demonstrate validation and assess the performance of the indoor release model. Lastly, the behavior and effect of mitigation of indoor release were demonstrated by using the model results.     

Fused CFD-interpolation model for real-time prediction of hazardous gas dispersion in emergency rescue

Accidental releases of hazardous gases in chemical industries can pose great threats to public security. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is commonly applied to predict gas dispersion in complex structured areas. It can provide good accuracy but it is too time-consuming to be used in emergency response. To reduce computation time while keep acceptable accuracy, this paper proposes several fused CFD-interpolation models which combine CFD model with different interpolation methods. Spline, linear and nearest interpolation methods are used. A CFD simulations database is created ahead of time which can be quickly recalled for emergency usage and unknown situations can be predicted instantly by interpolation methods instead of time-consuming CFD model. Fused models were applied to a case study involving a hypothetical propane release with varying conditions and validated against CFD model. The validation shows that prediction accuracy of these fusion models is acceptable. Among these models, CFD-Spline interpolation model performs best. It is faster than CFD model by a factor of 75 and is potentially a good method to be applied to real-time prediction.     

Validation of FLACS against experimental data sets from the model evaluation database for LNG vapor dispersion

The siting of facilities handling liquefied natural gas (LNG), whether for liquefaction, storage or regasification purposes, requires the hazards from potential releases to be evaluated. One of the consequences of an LNG release is the creation of a flammable vapor cloud, that may be pushed beyond the facility boundaries by the wind and thus present a hazard to the public. Therefore, numerical models are required to determine the footprint that may be covered by a flammable vapor cloud as a result of an LNG release. Several new models have been used in recent years for this type of simulations. This prompted the development of the “Model evaluation protocol for LNG vapor dispersion models” (MEP): a procedure aimed at evaluating quantitatively the ability of a model to accurately predict the dispersion of an LNG vapor cloud.This paper summarizes the MEP requirements and presents the results obtained from the application of the MEP to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model – FLACS. The entire set of 33 experiments included in the model validation database were simulated using FLACS. The simulation results are reported and compared with the experimental data. A set of statistical performance measures are calculated based on the FLACS simulation results and compared with the acceptability criteria established in the MEP. The results of the evaluation demonstrate that FLACS can be considered a suitable model to accurately simulate the dispersion of vapor from an LNG release.     

Validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the validation of discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for both unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases using the consequence modelling package Phast.The paper first summarises the validation of the Phast dispersion model (UDM) for unpressurised releases. This includes heavy gas dispersion from either a ground-level line source (McQuaid wind-tunnel experiments) or an area source (Kit-Fox field experiments). For the McQuaid experiments minor modifications of the UDM were made to support line sources. For the Kit Fox experiments steady-state and 20-s finite-duration releases were simulated for both neutral and stable conditions. Most accurate predictions of the concentrations for finite duration releases were obtained using the UDM Finite Duration Correction method.Using experiments funded by BP and Shell and made available via DNV's CO2PIPETRANS JIP, the paper secondly summarises the validation of the Phast discharge and dispersion models for pressurised CO₂ releases. This modelling accounted for the possible presence of the solid CO₂ phase following expansion to atmospheric pressure. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases. Both the flow rate and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately.The above validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

Numerical analysis of toxic cloud generation and dispersion: A case study of the ethylene oxide spill

The present study examined the accidental spill of ethylene oxide, and a sensitivity analysis of the corresponding consequences was conducted using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A validation of the gas dispersion CFD model against the experimental data sets included in the model evaluation protocol (MEP) was performed. The effect of the variability of the wind velocity on the extension of the hazardous areas and pool evaporation characteristics was evaluated. Additionally, the mitigation effects of the dike walls surrounding a spill were discussed. CFD simulation results have shown that the mitigation effect of dike walls is determined by their influence on both gas dispersion and pool evaporation and depends strongly on wind velocity in terms of toxic impact distances.     

Methodology for consequence analysis of LNG releases at deepwater port facilities

A methodology to perform consequence analysis associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a deepwater port (DWP) facility has been presented. Analytical models used to describe the unconfined spill dynamics of LNG are discussed. How to determine the thermal hazard associated with a potential pool fire involving spilled LNG is also presented. Another hazard associated with potential releases of LNG is the dispersion of the LNG vapor. An approach using computational fluid dynamics tools (CFD) is presented. The CFD dispersion methodology is benchmarked against available test data. Using the proposed analysis approach provides estimates of hazard zones associated with newly proposed LNG deepwater ports and their potential impact to the public.     

Modelling accidental releases of dangerous gases into the lower troposphere from mobile sources

The article reports the results of different methods of modelling releases and dispersion of dangerous gases or vapours in cases of major accidents from road and rail transportation in urban zones. Transport accidents of dangerous substances are increasingly frequent and can cause serious injuries in densely inhabited areas or pollution of the environment. For quantitative risk assessment and mitigation planning, consequence modelling is necessary.

The modelling of dangerous substance dispersion by standard methods does not fully represent the behaviour of toxic or flammable clouds in obstructed areas such as street canyons. Therefore the predictions from common software packages as ALOHA, EFFECTS, TerEx should be augmented with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or physical modelling in aerodynamic tunnels, and further studies are planned to do this.

The goal of this article is to present the results of the first approach of modelling using these standard methods and to demonstrate the importance of the next development stage in the area of transport accident modelling of releases and dispersions of dangerous substances in urban zones in cases of major accident or terrorist attacks.