Use of Long‐Distance Migration Patterns of an Endangered Species to Inform Conservation Planning for the World's Largest Marine Protected Area

Large marine protected areas (MPAs), each hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, have been set up by governments around the world over the last decade as part of efforts to reduce ocean biodiversity declines, yet their efficacy is hotly debated. The Chagos Archipelago MPA (640,000 km²) (Indian Ocean) lies at the heart of this debate. We conducted the first satellite tracking of a migratory species, the green turtle (Chelonia mydas), within the MPA and assessed the species’ use of protected versus unprotected areas. We developed an approach to estimate length of residence within the MPA that may have utility across migratory taxa including tuna and sharks. We recorded the longest ever published migration for an adult cheloniid turtle (3979 km). Seven of 8 tracked individuals migrated to distant foraging grounds, often ≥1000 km outside the MPA. One turtle traveled to foraging grounds within the MPA. Thus, networks of small MPAs, developed synergistically with larger MPAs, may increase the amount of time migrating species spend within protected areas. The MPA will protect turtles during the breeding season and will protect some turtles on their foraging grounds within the MPA and others during the first part of their long‐distance postbreeding oceanic migrations. International cooperation will be needed to develop the network of small MPAs needed to supplement the Chagos Archipelago MPA. Uso de los Patrones de Migración a Larga Distancia de una Especie en Peligro de Extinción para Informar a la Planeación de la Conservación del Área Marina Protegida más Grande     

Estimating freshwater turtle mortality rates and population declines following hook ingestion

Freshwater turtle populations are susceptible to declines following small increases in the mortality of adults, making it essential to identify and understand potential threats. Freshwater turtles ingest fish hooks associated with recreational angling, and this is likely a problem because hook ingestion is a source of additive mortality for sea turtles. We used a Bayesian‐modeling framework, observed rates of hook ingestion by freshwater turtles, and mortality of sea turtles from hook ingestion to examine the probability that a freshwater turtle in a given population ingests a hook and subsequently dies from it. We used the results of these analyses and previously published life‐history data to simulate the effects of hook ingestion on population growth for 3 species of freshwater turtle. In our simulation, the probability that an individual turtle ingests a hook and dies as a result was 1.2–11%. Our simulation results suggest that this rate of mortality from hook ingestion is sufficient to cause population declines. We believe we have identified fish‐hook ingestion as a serious yet generally overlooked threat to the viability of freshwater turtle populations.     

Understanding the sources and effects of abandoned,lost, and discarded fishing gear on marine turtles in northern Australia

Globally, 6.4 million tons of fishing gear are lost in the oceans annually. This gear (i.e., ghost nets), whether accidently lost, abandoned, or deliberately discarded, threatens marine wildlife as it drifts with prevailing currents and continues to entangle marine organisms indiscriminately. Northern Australia has some of the highest densities of ghost nets in the world, with up to 3 tons washing ashore per kilometer of shoreline annually. This region supports globally significant populations of internationally threatened marine fauna, including 6 of the 7 extant marine turtles. We examined the threat ghost nets pose to marine turtles and assessed whether nets associated with particular fisheries are linked with turtle entanglement by analyzing the capture rates of turtles and potential source fisheries from nearly 9000 nets found on Australia's northern coast. Nets with relatively larger mesh and smaller twine sizes (e.g., pelagic drift nets) had the highest probability of entanglement for marine turtles. Net size was important; larger nets appeared to attract turtles, which further increased their catch rates. Our results point to issues with trawl and drift‐net fisheries, the former due to the large number of nets and fragments found and the latter due to the very high catch rates resulting from the net design. Catch rates for fine‐mesh gill nets can reach as high as 4 turtles/100 m of net length. We estimated that the total number of turtles caught by the 8690 ghost nets we sampled was between 4866 and 14,600, assuming nets drift for 1 year. Ghost nets continue to accumulate on Australia's northern shore due to both legal and illegal fishing; over 13,000 nets have been removed since 2005. This is an important and ongoing transboundary threat to biodiversity in the region that requires attention from the countries surrounding the Arafura and Timor Seas. Entender las Fuentes y Efectos de Equipo de Pesca Abandonado, Perdido y Desechado sobre las Tortugas Marinas del Atlántico Norte     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

Effects of urbanization on the population structure of freshwater turtles across the United States

Landscape‐scale alterations that accompany urbanization may negatively affect the population structure of wildlife species such as freshwater turtles. Changes to nesting sites and higher mortality rates due to vehicular collisions and increased predator populations may particularly affect immature turtles and mature female turtles. We hypothesized that the proportions of adult female and immature turtles in a population will negatively correlate with landscape urbanization. As a collaborative effort of the Ecological Research as Education Network (EREN), we sampled freshwater turtle populations in 11 states across the central and eastern United States. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant positive relationship between proportions of mature female painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) and urbanization. We did not detect a relationship between urbanization and proportions of immature turtles. Urbanization may alter the thermal environment of nesting sites such that more females are produced as urbanization increases. Our approach of creating a collaborative network of scientists and students at undergraduate institutions proved valuable in terms of testing our hypothesis over a large spatial scale while also allowing students to gain hands‐on experience in conservation science.     

Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Alternative Conservation Strategies with Application to the Pacific Leatherback Turtle

Although holistic conservation addressing all sources of mortality for endangered species or stocks is the preferred conservation strategy, limited budgets require a criterion to prioritize conservation investments. We compared the cost‐effectiveness of nesting site and at‐sea conservation strategies for Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). We sought to determine which conservation strategy or mix of strategies would produce the largest increase in population growth rate per dollar. Alternative strategies included protection of nesters and their eggs at nesting beaches in Indonesia, gear changes, effort restrictions, and caps on turtle takes in the Hawaiian (U.S.A.) longline swordfish fishery, and temporal and area closures in the California (U.S.A.) drift gill net fishery. We used a population model with a biological metric to measure the effects of conservation alternatives. We normalized all effects by cost to prioritize those strategies with the greatest biological effect relative to its economic cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty in the main variables and to calculate probability distributions for cost‐effectiveness measures. Nesting beach protection was the most cost‐effective means of achieving increases in leatherback populations. This result creates the possibility of noncompensatory bycatch mitigation, where high‐bycatch fisheries invest in protecting nesting beaches. An example of this practice is U.S. processors of longline tuna and California drift gill net fishers that tax themselves to finance low‐cost nesting site protection. Under certain conditions, fisheries interventions, such as technologies that reduce leatherback bycatch without substantially decreasing target species catch, can be cost‐effective. Reducing bycatch in coastal areas where bycatch is high, particularly adjacent to nesting beaches, may be cost‐effective, particularly, if fisheries in the area are small and of little commercial value. Rentabilidad de Estrategias de Conservación Alternativas Aplicadas a Tortugas Laúd del Pacífico     

Global Analysis of Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life‐history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic‐stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. Análisis Global de la Ingesta de Residuos Antropogénicos por Tortugas Marinas     

Effects of Roads on the Structure of Freshwater Turtle Populations

Abstract:  Road mortality has the potential to alter the structure of turtle populations because turtle populations are highly sensitive to additive sources of adult mortality. To address the issue, we captured painted turtles (   Chrysemys picta ; n = 174) and snapping turtles (   Chelydra serpentina ; n = 56) in 18 wetlands surrounded by low road density (≤1.5 km roads/km² of landscape) and 17 wetlands surrounded by high road density (>1.5 km/km²) in central New York in 2002. High road density was associated with male-biased sex ratios in painted turtles (74% vs. 54% males; p = 0.01) and snapping turtles (95% vs. 74% males; p = 0.08), whereas turtle morphology and abundance were not associated with road density. Disproportionate road mortality of females on nesting migrations is the most likely cause of skewed sex ratios.     

Trends in Sex Ratios of Turtles in the United States: Implications of Road Mortality

Abstract:  Road mortality has been implicated as a significant demographic force in turtles, particularly for females, which are killed disproportionately on overland nesting movements. Moreover, the United States' road network has expanded dramatically over the last century. We therefore predicted that historical trends in sex ratios of turtle populations would be male biased. To test this prediction, we synthesized published estimates of population-level sex ratios in freshwater and terrestrial turtles in the United States (165 estimates for 36 species, published 1928–2003). Our analysis suggests that the proportion of males in populations has increased linearly ( p = 0.001); the trend in male bias is synchronized with the expansion of the surfaced portion of the road network since 1930; sex ratios became more male biased in states with higher densities of roads; and populations have become more male biased in aquatic species, in which movement differentials between males and females are greatest, and are least biased in semiaquatic and terrestrial species, in which overland movements are more comparable between sexes. Our results suggest an ongoing depletion of breeding females from wild turtle populations over the last century because of many factors, including, and perhaps chiefly, road mortality.     

Effects of Organized Turtle Watches on Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) Nesting Behavior and Hatchling Production in Florida

To evaluate the effects of organized turtle watches on female sea turtles and their eggs, we quantified nesting behavior and hatchling production of loggerhead turtles ( Caretta caretta ) in south Brevard Country, Florida, U.S.A. We compared the duration of five phases of nesting behavior, the directness of the turtle's return path, rate of travel during return crawl, hatching success, and hatchling emergence success between experimental and control turtles. Experimental turtles nested while observed by an organized turtle watch group consisting of at least 15 people; control turtles were not observed by a turtle watch group. Experimental turtles spent significantly less time camouflaging nest sites than did control turtles. The duration of the other four phases of nesting behavior were not significantly different between the two groups. Experimental turtles also traveled less-direct paths during return crawls, although their rates of travel were not significantly different from those of control turtles. Hatching success and hatchling emergence success were not significantly different between experimental and control turtle nests in either year. Although turtle watch groups influenced nesting behavior, they were not found to be detrimental to hatchling production. Florida's turtle watch program is a means for garnering public support for sea turtle conservation through education, and it should continue.     

Important areas at sea for adult loggerhead sea turtles in the Mediterranean Sea: satellite tracking corroborates findings from potentially biased sources

Sea turtle populations worldwide suffer from reduced survival of immatures and adults due to fishery bycatch. Unfortunately, information about the whereabouts of turtles outside the breeding habitat is scarce in most areas, hampering the development of spatially explicit conservation plans. In the Mediterranean, recoveries of adult females flipper-tagged on nesting beaches suggest that the Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Gabès are important foraging areas for adults, but such information could be heavily biased (observing and reporting bias). In order to obtain unbiased data, we satellite-tracked seven loggerhead sea turtles after they completed nesting in the largest known Mediterranean rookery (Bay of Laganas, Zakynthos, Greece). Three females settled in the north Adriatic Sea, one in the south Adriatic Sea and two in the Gulf of Gabès area at the completion of their post-nesting migrations (one individual did not occupy a distinct foraging area). The concordance of tracking results with information from recoveries of flipper-tagged turtles suggests that the north Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Gabès represent key areas for female adult Mediterranean loggerhead sea turtles.     

Putting Longline Bycatch of Sea Turtles into Perspective

Abstract:  Although some sea turtle populations are showing encouraging signs of recovery, others continue to decline. Reversing population declines requires an understanding of the primary factor(s) that underlie this persistent demographic trend. The list of putative factors includes direct turtle and egg harvest, egg predation, loss or degradation of nesting beach habitat, fisheries bycatch, pollution, and large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and nutrient availability. Recently, fisheries bycatch, in particular bycatch from longline fisheries, has received increased attention and has been proposed as a primary source of turtle mortality. We reviewed the existing data on the relative impact of longline bycatch on sea turtle populations. Although bycatch rates from individual longline vessels are extremely low, the amount of gear deployed by longline vessels suggests that cumulative bycatch of turtles from older age classes is substantial. Current estimates suggest that even if pelagic longlines are not the largest single source of fisheries-related mortality, longline bycatch is high enough to warrant management actions in all fleets that encounter sea turtles. Nevertheless, preliminary data also suggest that bycatch from gillnets and trawl fisheries is equally high or higher than longline bycatch with far higher mortality rates. Until gillnet and trawl fisheries are subject to the same level of scrutiny given to pelagic longlines, our understanding of the overall impact of fisheries bycatch on vulnerable sea turtle populations will be incomplete.     

Satellite tracking of migrating loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) displaced in the open sea

Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) are known to migrate towards fixed, individually-specific residential feeding grounds. To study their spatial behaviour and their navigational ability, five loggerheads nesting in South Africa were captured when about to start their postnesting migration and tracked by satellite after having been displaced from their usual migratory route. The first turtle, released south of Madagascar about 1,148 km from the capture site, moved west up to mainland Africa and then reached her feeding grounds by following the coast. A second turtle, released farther away (2,140 km) close to La Réunion Island, stopped for some time on the Madagascar east coast, then turned southwards to round the island and regain the African mainland in the northwest, without however allowing us to establish the location of her residential grounds. Three other turtles were released off the Tanzanian coast, 2,193 km north of their nesting area, at the northern edge of the distribution of the feeding grounds along the African coast. All of them headed north, and one turtle found her residential grounds located north of the release site. The other two females started long-distance oceanic wanderings in which they crossed nearly the entire Indian Ocean, apparently being transported by the sea currents of the region. We conclude that adult loggerhead turtles are apparently unable to compensate for the displacement and can return to a pelagic life style characteristic of juvenile turtles. These findings suggest that South African loggerheads rely on simple orientation mechanisms, such as the use of the coastline, as a guide, and compass orientation, possibly integrated by spatiotemporal programmes and/or acquired maps of familiar sites.Communicated by R. Cattaneo-Vietti, Genova     

Temporal Analysis of Genetic Structure to Assess Population Dynamics of Reintroduced Swift Foxes

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long‐term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small‐population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos     

Managing Protected Woodlands: Fuelwood Collection and Law Enforcement in Lake Malawi National Park

Abstract: We examined the decisions women make in their collection of fuelwood within a protected area in Malawi. We used law enforcement data and behavioral observations of fuelwood harvesting practices to examine the risk of detection and penalties posed by law enforcement activities. Our results indicate that, at their current levels, law enforcement patrols have little effect on wood collection practices. The low risk of detection and light penalties appear to favor illegal wood collection, which is practiced by the majority of women. Alternative strategies should be pursued to enhance the conservation of the woodland and its management as a fuelwood resource for local communities.     

Trends in Deforestation and Forest Degradation after a Decade of Monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico

We used aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys to monitor forest cover in the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico from 2001 to 2012. We used our data to assess the effectiveness of conservation actions that involved local, state, and federal authorities and community members (e.g., local landowners and private and civil organizations) in one of the world's most iconic protected areas. From 2001 through 2012, 1254 ha were deforested (i.e., cleared areas had <10% canopy cover), 925 ha were degraded (i.e., areas for which canopy forest decreased), and 122 ha were affected by climatic conditions. Of the total 2179 ha of affected area, 2057 ha were affected by illegal logging: 1503 ha by large‐scale logging and 554 ha by small‐scale logging. Mexican authorities effectively enforced efforts to protect the monarch reserve, particularly from 2007 to 2012. Those efforts, together with the decade‐long financial support from Mexican and international philanthropists and businesses to create local alternative‐income generation and employment, resulted in the decrease of large‐scale illegal logging from 731 ha affected in 2005–2007 to none affected in 2012, although small‐scale logging is of growing concern. However, dire regional social and economic problems remain, and they must be addressed to ensure the reserve's long‐term conservation. The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering colonies in Mexico—which engage in one of the longest known insect migrations—are threatened by deforestation, and a multistakeholder, regional, sustainable‐development strategy is needed to protect the reserve. Tendencias en la Deforestación y la Degradación de Forestal después de una Década de Monitoreo en la Reserva de la Biósfera de la Mariposa Monarca en México     

Applications of Very High‐Resolution Imagery in the Study and Conservation of Large Predators in the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically important krill and fish. Because sea ice loss is expected to be accompanied by declines in krill and fish predators, decoupling the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes on these predator populations is crucial for ecosystem‐based management of the Southern Ocean. We reviewed research published from 2007 to 2014 that incorporated very high‐resolution satellite imagery to assess distribution, abundance, and effects of climate and other anthropogenic changes on populations of predators in polar regions. Very high‐resolution imagery has been used to study 7 species of polar animals in 13 papers, many of which provide methods through which further research can be conducted. Use of very high‐resolution imagery in the Southern Ocean can provide a broader understanding of climate and anthropogenic forces on populations and inform management and conservation recommendations. We recommend that conservation biologists continue to integrate high‐resolution remote sensing into broad‐scale biodiversity and population studies in remote areas, where it can provide much needed detail. Aplicaciones de Imágenes de Muy Alta Resolución en el Estudio y Conservación de Grandes Depredadores en el Océano Antártico     

Migration of green turtles <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chelonia mydas</Emphasis> from Tortuguero,Costa Rica

During 1955–2003, flipper tags were attached to 46,983 green turtles and ten turtles were fitted with satellite transmitters at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. Eight satellite-tracked turtles stayed within 135 km of the beach and probably returned to nest after release. The internesting area is more extensive than previously documented. Post-nesting migration routes of satellite-tracked turtles varied. Seven turtles swam close to the coast and three turtles swam through oceanic waters before moving toward nearshore areas. Sea surface height anomaly maps indicate that oceanic movements were consistent with the southwestern Caribbean gyre. Circling and semi-circling turtles could have been disoriented but submergence and surface times suggest they may have been feeding in Sargassum sp. concentrations. Rapid post-nesting migrations (mean 2.2 km hr⁻¹) ended on benthic feeding grounds in shallow waters (<20 m) off Belize (n=1), Honduras (n=1) and Nicaragua (n=8). The spatial distribution of migration end points (n=10) and tag returns (n=4,669) are similar. Fishermen in Nicaragua target green turtles along migratory corridors and on foraging grounds. Management efforts are urgently needed in Nicaragua, particularly in the high-density feeding areas south and east of the Witties (N14°09 W82°45). The proximity of foraging grounds to the nesting beach (mean 512 km) may permit female turtles to invest more energy in reproduction and hence the Tortuguero population may have greater potential for recovery than other green turtle nesting populations. Recovery of the Tortuguero green turtle population will benefit countries and marine ecosystems throughout the Caribbean, especially Nicaragua.     

Effects of Illegal Harvest of Eggs on the Population Decline of Leatherback Turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park,Costa Rica

Abstract: Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.