Effect of short-term variations in light intensity on photosynthesis of a marine phytoplankter: A laboratory simulation study

Parameters of photosynthesis and growth were measured for a marine diatom (Lauderia borealis) grown in axenic continuous culture under three different light regimes: constant, simulated diurnal variation, and fluctuating. The light fluctuations were systematic increases and decreases in light intensity superimposed on the diurnal regime. In the first two regimes, a morning maximum and an afternoon depression in photosynthesis were observed. In the fluctuating light regime, the afternoon depression was less pronounced and the morning maximum was enhanced. The results may be explained by postulating a time-dependent value for the light-saturated rate of photosynthesis. Light utilization [mmol O₂ cell^-1 (E m^-2)^-1] was the same for the diurnally varying and fluctuating regimes, despite the fact that the peak light intensity in the fluctuating regime was double that of the diurnally varying regime.     

Valuing environmental amenities through inverse optimization: Theory and case study

Amenity values of private forests are implicit but play a critical role in decision and policy making. This study presents an innovative valuation approach integrating techniques of operations research and economic theory of pricing environmental goods. A forest planning problem was inversed through altering its reward function of timber values so that the observed harvesting behavior became optimal. The discrepancy between the original and new rewards uncovered amenities values which were linked to forest attributes via hedonic models. This method was applied to a case study of the U.S. southern pine region. Depending on forest conditions, total economic values of amenities varied from zero to just under one thousand dollar per ha. At a discount rate of 3%, a typically managed forest generated on average $243 ha⁻¹ of amenities values per annum, more than twice of harvested timber values. Structural diversity and density of large pine trees were the key determinants to preserving forests for environmental amenities.     

基于MLP-ANN与Markov Chain的土地利用变化预测方法——以锡林郭勒盟为例

以北方草地典型地区—内蒙古锡林郭勒盟为案例区,在1995年到2000年的土地利用变化与驱动力分析的基础上,利用土地利用转换类型和驱动力模型,采用多层感知人工神经网络模型分析了各种土地利用类型未来的转换潜力;利用马尔可夫链模型,预测了2005和2010年土地利用格局。预测结果显示：高覆盖度草地减少幅度最大,中覆盖度草地减少相对和缓,高、中覆盖度草地的减少造成了未利用地和低覆盖度草地的增加,尤其是前者增加的幅度最大;从空间分布看,高覆盖度草地的减少集中在西北部地区,主要转变为中低覆盖度草地,中覆盖度草地的减少主要集中在西南部地区,其流向主要是以沙化土地为主的未利用地;案例研究表明,多层感知人工神经网络模型与马尔可夫链模型的结合与应用能够在很大程度上预测稳定驱动力作用下的土地利用变化趋势,从而为生态干预提供指导。     

Contaminant transport in an unsaturated soil: laboratory tests and numerical simulation model as procedure for parameters evaluation

In this paper, lab tests coupled to a semi-pilot test section are used to derive data for the calibration of a numerical model. The paper is aimed at proposing a set of experiments, which can be used to calibrate a numerical model before using it on defined soils. The complexity of the phenomenon of transport of reactive pollutants in soil has to be faced in the most complete way. The different behaviour of soil after wet/dry cycles with respect to the fluidodynamic characteristics and the importance to consider the local biomass behaviour in case of organic contaminant has been underlined. An optimal approach has to take into account all the different components and here a simple series of experimental procedure is presented. The sensitivity analysis of the numerical model has shown that its results are not so much dependent on the classical numerical aspects (time or space increments) but mainly on a set of parameters related to soil structure which must then be derived through a good calibration.     

Crop growth,soil water and nitrogen balance simulation on three experimental field plots using the Opus model—A case study

Over a period of 5 years, the agro-ecosystem model Opus was used to simulate soil water and nitrogen balance as well as crop growth for three experimental field plots. At these plots, different agricultural management practices were applied. The data set obtained from these plots consists of automatically recorded time series of daily volumetric soil water contents measured by TRIME-probes as well as daily pressure heads measured by tensiometer. Aboveground total biomass, yield, nitrogen-uptake by crops as well as nitrate contents in the soil were measured at 6–10 sample times per year. The objective of this study was an evaluation of the accuracy of Opus regarding the simulation of crop growth, soil water and nitrogen balance. The simulations of soil water contents and pressure heads correspond with the commonly measured trends in soil depths shallower than 60 cm. In depths deeper than 60 cm, some differences between measured and simulated soil water contents as well as pressure heads could be observed. Nitrate contents in the root zone and the aboveground total biomass were simulated satisfactorily. In contrast to that, simulated and observed yields show greater discrepancies. This indicates the need of a site specific calibration of crop growth parameters within the Opus model.     

Environment and economic feasibility of municipal solid waste central sorting strategy: a case study in Beijing

Although Beijing has carried out municipal solid waste (MSW) source separation since 1996, it has largely been ineffective. In 2012, a “Green House” program was established as a new attempt for central sorting. In this study, the authors used material flow analysis (MFA) and cost benefit analysis (CBA) methods to investigate Green House’s environment and economic feasibility. Results showed that the program did have significant environmental benefits on waste reduction, which reduced the amount of waste by 34%. If the Green House program is implemented in a residential community with wet waste ratio of 66%, the proportion of waste reduction can reach 37%. However, the Green House is now running with a monthly loss of 1982 CNY. This is mainly because most of its benefits come from waste reduction (i.e., 5878 CNY per month), which does not turn a monetary benefit, but is instead distributed to the whole of society as positive environmental externalities. Lack of government involvement, small program scale, and technical/managerial deficiency are three main barriers of the Green House. We, thus, make three recommendations: involve government authority and financial support, expand the program scale to separate 91.4 tons of waste every month, and use more professional equipment/technologies. If the Green House program can successfully adopt these suggestions, 33.8 tons of waste can be reduced monthly, and it would be able to flip the loss into a profit worth 35034 CNY.

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Comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques: A case study with the rice model WARM

The considerable complexity often included in biophysical models leads to the need of specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are available with various levels of uncertainty. Also, models may behave counter-intuitively, particularly when there are nonlinearities in multiple input-output relationships. Quantitative knowledge of the sensitivity of models to changes in their parameters is hence a prerequisite for operational use of models. This can be achieved using sensitivity analysis (SA) via methods which differ for specific characteristics, including computational resources required to perform the analysis. Running SA on biophysical models across several contexts requires flexible and computationally efficient SA approaches, which must be able to account also for possible interactions among parameters. A number of SA experiments were performed on a crop model for the simulation of rice growth (Water Accounting Rice Model, WARM) in Northern Italy. SAs were carried out using the Morris method, three regression-based methods (Latin hypercube sampling, random and Quasi-Random, LpTau), and two methods based on variance decomposition: Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (E-FAST) and Sobol’, with the latter adopted as benchmark. Aboveground biomass at physiological maturity was selected as reference output to facilitate the comparison of alternative SA methods. Rankings of crop parameters (from the most to the least relevant) were generated according to sensitivity experiments using different SA methods and alternate parameterizations for each method, and calculating the top-down coefficient of concordance (TDCC) as measure of agreement between rankings. With few exceptions, significant TDCC values were obtained both for different parameterizations within each method and for the comparison of each method to the Sobol’ one. The substantial stability observed in the rankings seem to indicate that, for a crop model of average complexity such as WARM, resource intensive SA methods could not be needed to identify most relevant parameters. In fact, the simplest among the SA methods used (i.e., Morris method) produced results comparable to those obtained by methods more computationally expensive.     

A system dynamics model for evaluating collaborative forest management: a case study in Indonesia

This article presents a system dynamics (SD) method to examine the problem of forest degradation. The model developed takes a system-oriented view of forest management, embracing both social and biophysical factors affecting deforestation. Social factors examined are socio-economic variables or elements that influence behaviour and decision-making choices at the household level. Biophysical factors are four sub-components that are considered major land uses namely, the paddy field component, rattan plantations, coffee plantations and forest stands. The model was applied in a case study located in Pasir District of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The site covers an area that includes a protected forest and a privately allocated timber license concession. Three village communities are examined in the case study. The SD model developed was applied to the case study focusing on three management policies or scenarios, which are based on access rights to the forest resources within the study area. Specifically, the property arrangements examined in each scenario are: Policy 1 – status quo (i.e. continue present property rights arrangements); Policy 2 – local communities manage the forest exclusively; and Policy 3 – collaborative management involving both local communities and a private company. Results from the model show that the third policy is the most viable option, and also lead to a win–win solution.     

Testing the robustness of primary production models in shallow coastal areas: a case study

In this paper we investigate the robustness of a dynamic model, which describes the dynamic of the seagrass Zostera marina, with respect to the inter-annual variability of the two main forcing functions of primary production models in eutrophicated environments. The model was previously applied to simulate the seasonal evolution of this species in the Lagoon of Venice during a specific year and calibrated against time series of field data. In the this paper, we present and discuss the results which were obtained by forcing the model using time series of site-specific daily values concerning the solar radiation intensity and water temperature. The latter was estimated by means of a regression model, whose input variable was a site-specific time series of the air temperature. The regression model was calibrated using a year-long time series of hourly observations. The Z. marina model was first partially recalibrated against the same data set that was used in the original paper. Subsequently, the model was forced using a 7-year-long time series of the driving functions, in order to check the reliability of its long-term predictions. Even though the calibration gave satisfactory results, the multi-annual trends of the output variables were found to be in contrast with the observed evolution of the seagrass biomasses. Since detailed information about the air temperature and solar radiation are often available, these findings suggest that the testing of the ecological consistency of the evolution of primary production models in the long term would provide additional confidence in their results, particularly in those cases in which the scarcity of field data does not allow one to perform a formal corroboration/validation of these models.     

Numerical simulation and optimization study of the wind flow through a porous fence

Three turbulence closure models (RNG k-ε, SST k-ω and RSM) were used to investigate the flow characteristics around a two-dimensional isolated porous fence. The comparison between the numerical results and the experimental measurements indicated that RSM model shows a better performance than the other two models. The aim of this paper is to accurately and efficiently determine the optimum porosity that attain the best shelter effect of the wind fence in the near wake region (0–4h_b) and in the far wake region (4h_b–10h_b) respectively, where h_b is the height of the fence. The gradient algorithm was adopted as the optimization algorithm and the RSM model was used to model turbulent features of the flow. The shelter effect was parameterized by the peak velocity ratio involving velocity and turbulence. The objective was to reduce the peak velocity ratio in the near or far wake region by changing the design variable porosity (?) of the fence, which ranged between 2 and 60%. The results revealed that a porosity of 10.2% was found as the optimum value giving rise to the best shelter effect in the near wake region, and ? = 22.1% was determined in the case of the far wake region. In addition, based on the proposed optimization method, it is found that the recirculating bubble behind the fence can only be detected when ? < 29.9%.     

A simulation framework for water allocation to meet the environmental requirements of urban rivers: model development and a case study for the Liming River in Daqing City,China

In this paper, we describe the development of a simulation framework for allocating water from different sources to meet the environmental flows of an urban river. The model permits the development of a rational balance in the utilization of storm water, reclaimed water from wastewater treatment plants, and freshwater from reservoirs with consideration of the limited capacities of different water resources. It is designed to permit the full utilization of unconventional water sources for the restoration of river water quality by increasing river flow and improving water quality. To demonstrate practical use of the model, a case study is presented in which the model was used to simulate the environmental water allocation for the Liming River in Daqing City, China, based on the three water sources mentioned above. The results demonstrate that the model provides an effective approach for helping managers allocate water to satisfy the river’s environmental water requirements.     

天然林林龄的模拟估算及案例

林龄是森林生态系统的一个重要特征,具有生态学意义.但是目前生态学调查中对天然林林龄的估算方法有一定缺陷.在特定的环境条件下,森林有着相应的演替过程.已有林窗研究表明.长白山森林是按照一定次序演替,森林的径级结构也是有规律可循的.由于总是缺乏足够的长期系统观测数据,因此作者采用数值模拟作为替代方法.应用校正过的林窗模型模拟0～600 a的森林演替序列,比较对长白山原始天然林的采样的结果,发现目前的林龄最接近400 a.这个估测结果可以从本地区历史资料记载得到印证.     

城市大气环境监测优化布点模糊优选模型及应用实例

文章根据城市大气环境监测优化布点的模糊性,提出了一种模糊环境条件下的模糊聚类与模糊识别理论模型,并且在山东省肥城等市成功应用。结合统计方法确定出的大气监测优化点位,不但具有代表性和整体性,而且具有较高的分辨率,能快速准确地、最大范围地反映出该区域的环境空气质量状况、大气污染扩散规律、污染源分布特点、污染气象及地理位置特征,为环境管理和政府决策提供可靠依据。     

Identifying forest ecosystem services through socio-ecological bundles: a case study from northern Jordan

This study aims to identify services provided by forest ecosystems based on locals’ perceptions in the northern part of Jordan. By better understanding preferences of locals and by understanding why they value certain services more heavily, policy-makers and planning managers can make more effective decisions regarding development and conservation. Three hundred respondents were interviewed in order to collect information about forest ecosystem services (ES). Data collection was conducted using a structured questionnaire regarding ES provided by three forest types situated in northern Jordan. ES trade-offs and socio-ecological bundles were identified by analyzing respondents’ socioeconomic demographics and preferences of forest ES through multivariate canonical corresponding analysis (CCA). The statistical analysis indicated that the socioeconomic factors and forest type have an effect on social preferences toward ES. Results displayed a clear trade-off between provisioning services and regulating and cultural services. CCA demonstrated that 73% of the variation in ES value is explained by social factors (i.e. education level, income level, and gender), while 26% of perception variation was attributable to categories of ES supplied by each forest ecosystem. These findings imply that involving people in the place-specific management of public forests using the ES approach gives managers a clearer understanding of the benefits people recognize and value, as well as those they either are not aware of or do not value. Such information is useful in forest management and in public outreach. Although direct policy applications are limited by the research’s nature, the paper provides a starting point for incorporating forest users’ voices into policy discussions and management design.     

A laboratory study of predation by Aurelia aurita on larval herring (Clupea harengus): Experimental observations compared with model predictions

Predation by the medusa Aurelia aurita L. on early first-feeding stage larvae of the herring clupea harengus L. was studied in the laboratory. The medusae were captured in Loch Etive, Scotland. Herring larvae were reared from the extificially fertilized eggs of spawning Clyde herring caught in March, 1982. Swimming speeds, volume searched”, capture efficiency and predation rates increased as medusa size increased. Predation rates on fish larvae increased with prey density, but appeared to approach a maximum at high prey densities; in 1 h experiments, a maximum rate of predation of 6.64 larvae h^-1 was estimated by fitting an Ivlev function. A model to predict predation rates was constructed from swimming speeds, sizes and densities of medusae and larvae, and capture efficiency. The rates of predation predicted from the model fell within the range of experimental data, but tended to underestimate rates and did not account for saturation of medusae. Swimming patterns of medusae changed after prey capture: (a) before capture, encounter rates were low and medusae were relatively less active; (b) after capture of 1 larva, encounter rates doubled, with the stimulated medusae exhibiting increased activity and an aftered “searching” path; and (c) after capture of many larvae, swimming speeds and encounter rates of medusae decreased.     

The boll weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) feeding process: A simulation model

A model is presented for predicting boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, feeding damage to cotton. The model uses appropriate probability theory based on behavioral components of male and nonreproducing female boll weevils and includes the effects of (1) differential feeding site preferences, (2) previous damage to the sites, and (3) individual insect behavior extended to feeding damage caused by a population of insects. The model is sensitive to both crop and insect parameters. An example of how this model can be used in an insect-crop ecosystem simulation is offered.     

城市生态环境演变趋势的集对分析预测研究——以武汉市为例

自然生态环境是城市社会经济健康发展的重要物质基础,生态足迹作为生态环境承载状态测度的指标,受到社会、经济、人口等多种因素的影响,表现出时空动态性和不确定性等特征,集对分析(SPA)为不确定性问题的建模提出一条新的思路。在对1988—2004年武汉市生态足迹及其社会经济影响因子时间序列分析的基础上,通过构建的集对分析动态模型,对武汉市2005—2020年总生态足迹发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,2005—2020年总生态足迹将由1810.925万hm2增长到2873.857万hm2,呈现出低于GDP和生态效率增长速率的趋势,但生态环境将进一步恶化,对此就武汉市生态系统的发展提出了对策与建议。最后,指出SPA动态模型为城市生态系统预测研究提供了一种可行的解决方案。     

Malaysian households' drinking water practices: A case study

Malaysia has abundant water resources and adequate rainfall and yet the nation has water shortages and water quality problem. Various measures have been taken by the government to address water issues but, in spite of these, quantity and quality of drinking water is still one of the main concerns of Malaysian consumers today. An exploratory study was undertaken to determine the level of awareness of respondents on water issues, assess their perception on drinking water quality, and identify measures undertaken by households to improve drinking water quality and to determine sustainable water practices. A cross-sectional research design, utilizing a survey was conducted among urban residents of Seremban town. Data showed that each household had a mean of five members, with an average household income of RM3788.00 (US$1000). The respondents were Chinese (70%), Indian (23%) and Malay (7%). The majority of respondents rated the quality of water supplied to their house as poor (70%), while 16% rated it very poor. The respondents indicated that colour, odour and taste were the main problems with their tap water. Due to the poor tap water quality perceived by respondents, most took additional measures to improve its quality. Most (85%) purchased domestic water filters, 41% boiled water and 17% bought bottled water. The reasons for purchasing water were: concern for health, perception of poor tap water quality, and increasing water contamination and pollution in the country. Almost a quarter of respondents that had water filters mentioned the convenience because they did not have to boil water. Sustainable use of water by respondents was moderate, with a mean of 2.9 on a scale of 1 (never) to 4 (all the time). Some aspects of conservation, such as the promptness of repairing leaking pipes, planning activities to conserve water, and method of car washing could be improved. Advantages and limitations of different water technologies are discussed. Sustainable water practices are also proposed.     

Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting,based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou,China

Forecasting changes in urban ecological security could be important for the maintenance or improvement of the urban ecological environment. However, there are few references in this field and no landmark research work has been reported, particularly quantitative research. A forecasting model for ecological security based on cellular automata (CA) was developed using preliminary spatial data from an ecological security assessment of Guangzhou conducted previously (1990–2005). The model was constrained using transformation rules based upon proposed planning for 2010–2020. A simulation accuracy of 72.09% was acquired. Using a one-bit assessment grid for 2005 as the starting state for the simulation, the model was used to forecast ecological security for 2020. This revealed that although the ecological security status would be improved relative to current trends, there would still be an overall decline in ecological security over the next 15 years. Even if new urban plans were implemented, landscape pattern analysis suggested a more scattered and homogenous distribution in the urban landscape of Guangzhou and significant variation in landscape characteristics among districts. This suggests that further measures must be adopted to reverse the current trends in Guangzhou's ecological security. The model highlights the need to make ecological protection an integral part of urban planning. This study demonstrates the potential of CA models for forecasting ecological security. Such models could make an important contribution to decision-making for regional governors and to the development of urban planning incorporating assessment and prediction of ecological security.     

A bio-inspired computing model as a new tool for modeling ecosystems: The avian scavengers as a case study

The models used for ecosystems modeling are generally based on differential equations. However, in recent years new computational models based on biological processes, or bioinspired models, have arisen, among which are P systems. These are inspired by the functions of cells and present important advantages with respect to traditional models, such as a high computational efficiency, modularity and their ability to work in parallel. They are simple, individual-based models that use biological parameters that can be obtained experimentally. In this work, we present the framework for a model based on P systems applied to the study of an ecosystem in which three avian scavengers (predators) interact with 10 wild and domestic ungulates (preys). The computation time for 100 repetitions, corresponding to 14 simulation years each, with an initial population composed of 385,422 individuals, was 30 min. Our results suggest that the model presented, based on P systems, correctly simulates the population dynamics in the period of time analyzed. We discuss the usefulness of this tool in simulating complex ecosystems dynamics to aid managers, conservationists and policy-makers in making appropriate decisions for the improvement of management and conservation programs.