Within-tree life process models of the southern pine beetle, dendroctonus frontalis

This paper develops models of gallery construction, emergence and re-emergence for use in a general population dynamics model of the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonuc frontalis Zimmermann. Models of these processes were originally developed from laboratory data, and are extended here to account for fluctuating temperatures and variable attack densities under field conditions. The resulting models were tested using data from three natural populations (infestations) from east Texas. These tests reveal that the laboratory-derived models closely predict the timing and length of gallery, and the timing of emergence and re-emergence in the field.     

The role of size and aggression in intrasexual male competition in a social lizard species, Egernia whitii

Competition between males is a key component of the agonistic intrasexual interactions that influence resource acquisition, social system dynamics, and ultimately reproductive success. Sexual selection theory predicts that traits that enhance success in intrasexual competition (particularly male–male competition) should be favored. In vertebrates, this often includes body size and aggression, with larger and/or more aggressive males outcompeting smaller or less aggressive conspecifics. The majority of studies consider aggression as a flexible trait which responds to local social or environmental conditions. However, aggression frequently shows considerable within-individual consistency (i.e., individuals have identifiable aggressive behavioral types). Little is known about how such consistency in aggression may influence competition outcomes. We integrated a detailed field study with a laboratory experiment to examine how a male’s aggressive phenotype and his size influence competitive interactions in Egernia whitii, a social lizard species which exhibits strong competition over resources (limited permanent shelter sites and basking sites). Individual aggression and size did not predict competition outcome in the laboratory nor did they predict home range size, overlap, or reproductive success in the field. However, winners of laboratory trial contests maintained consistent aggressive phenotypes while consistency in aggression was lost in losers. We suggest that aggression may be important in other functional contexts, such as parental care, and that alternative traits, such as fighting experience, may be important in determining competition outcome in this species.     

Variational model of microorganism polyculture development without re-supply of mutually irreplaceable resources

Stationary stage of accumulating cultures of Pseudomonas aeruginosa dissociants is described by variational model of consumption and growth. The “generalized entropy” as a goal function is used. Model's parameters are the dissociants requirements for basic nutrients: carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Using this model we calculate the limitation ranges for arbitrary combinations of environmental resource factors and the community population sizes at a stationary stage of growth as functions of the resources that constrain the growth. The requirements values obtained from experimental data allowed us to predict the limiting resources and dissociant's abundances. Our estimations match experimental results. The possibility of composition control is discussed in paper.     

Knowing But Not Doing: Selecting Priority Conservation Areas and the Research–Implementation Gap

Abstract: Conservation assessment is a rapidly evolving discipline whose stated goal is the design of networks of protected areas that represent and ensure the persistence of nature (i.e., species, habitats, and environmental processes) by separating priority areas from the activities that degrade or destroy them. Nevertheless, despite a burgeoning scientific literature that ever refines these techniques for allocating conservation resources, it is widely believed that conservation assessments are rarely translated into actions that actually conserve nature. We reviewed the conservation assessment literature in peer‐reviewed journals and conducted survey questionnaires of the authors of these studies. Two‐thirds of conservation assessments published in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature do not deliver conservation action, primarily because most researchers never plan for implementation. This research–implementation gap between conservation science and real‐world action is a genuine phenomenon and is a specific example of the “knowing–doing gap” that is widely recognized in management science. Given the woefully inadequate resources allocated for conservation, our findings raise questions over the utility of conservation assessment science, as currently practiced, to provide useful, pragmatic solutions to conservation planning problems. A reevaluation of the conceptual and operational basis of conservation planning research is urgently required. We recommend the following actions for beginning a process for bridging the research–implementation gap in conservation planning: (1) acknowledge the research–implementation gap is real, (2) source research questions from practitioners, (3) situate research within a broader conservation planning model, (4) expand the social dimension of conservation assessments, (5) support conservation plans with transdisciplinary social learning institutions, (6) reward academics for societal engagement and implementation, and (7) train students in skills for “doing” conservation.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Network structure and prevalence of Cryptosporidium in Belding’s ground squirrels

Although pathogen transmission dynamics are profoundly affected by population social and spatial structure, few studies have empirically demonstrated the population-level implications of such structure in wildlife. In particular, epidemiological models predict that the extent to which contact patterns are clustered decreases a pathogen’s ability to spread throughout an entire population, but this effect has yet to be demonstrated in a natural population. Here, we use network analysis to examine patterns of transmission of an environmentally transmitted parasite, Cryptosporidium spp., in Belding’s ground squirrels (Spermophilus beldingi). We found that the prevalence of Cryptosporidium was negatively correlated with transitivity, a measure of network clustering, and positively correlated with the percentage of juvenile males. Additionally, network transitivity decreased when there were higher percentages of juvenile males; the exploratory behavior demonstrated by juvenile males may have altered the structure of the network by reducing clustering, and low clustering was associated with high prevalence. We suggest that juvenile males are critical in mediating the ability of Cryptosporidium to spread through colonies, and thus may function as “super-spreaders.” Our results demonstrate the utility of a network approach in quantifying mechanistically how differences in contact patterns may lead to system-level differences in infection patterns.     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Correlation between pelagic larval duration and realised dispersal: long-distance genetic connectivity between northern New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands archipelago

The extent to which marine populations are “open” (panmixia) or “closed” (self-recruitment) remains a matter of much debate, with recent reports of high levels of genetic differentiation and self-recruitment among populations of numerous species separated by short geographic. However, the interpretation of patterns of gene flow (connectivity) is often based on a stepping stone model of dispersal that can genetically homogenise even distant populations and blur genetic patterns that may better reflect realised dispersal. One way in which realised long-distance dispersal can be accurately determined is by examination of gene flow of taxa between isolated archipelagos and a mainland where there is no possible stepping stone dispersal across the open ocean. We investigated the genetic structuring of populations of the intertidal gastropod Nerita melanotragus from the subtropical Kermadec Islands and temperate New Zealand’s North Island (the mainland), separated by 750 km of open ocean and characterised by contrasting environmental conditions. Analyses of seven microsatellite markers revealed an absence of genetic structuring with low F _ST and Jost’s D values (from 0.000 to 0.007 and from 0.000 to 0.015, respectively) over large geographic distances and no evidence of isolation by distance among all populations. These results indicate that the realised dispersal of N. melanotragus is of at least 750 km, this species exhibits a very “open” form of connectivity and its larvae exhibit sufficient phenotypic plasticity to settle successfully in different environmental conditions, ranging from subtropical to cool temperate.     

Multimodal signals increase active space of communication by wolf spiders in a complex litter environment

Multimodal signals may compensate for environmental constraints on communication, as signals in different modalities vary in efficacy. We examined the influence of complex microhabitats on transmission of vibratory and visual signals of courting male Schizocosa ocreata wolf spiders (Araneae: Lycosidae) with laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) and behavioral observations in lab and field. We measured maximum potential detection distance of visual and vibratory signals by females in laboratory mesocosms, recorded vibration signal attenuation on different substrates, and estimated transmission distances for male vibration signals in the field. We also determined effective line-of-sight visual detection distances in the field with laser distance measures. Together, these data were used to estimate the potential and effective active space of multimodal signals. LDV measures show leaves are highly conductive substrates for wolf spider vibratory signals compared to others (soil, wood, rock). For both visual and vibratory modes, lab estimates of maximum potential distance for signal transmission and detection (behavior studies) exceeded estimates of effective active space (signal attenuation, “vanishing point,” and “line-of-sight” measures). Field estimates of transmission distance for signal modes overlap, such that in close range (<20 cm), vibratory signals are more likely to be detected, while farther away, visual signals are more likely to be seen. These findings thus support current hypotheses regarding how multimodal communication might extend the range of overall signal active space or compensate for environmental constraints.     

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6?°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4?°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.     

A laboratory study of predation by Aurelia aurita on larval herring (Clupea harengus): Experimental observations compared with model predictions

Predation by the medusa Aurelia aurita L. on early first-feeding stage larvae of the herring clupea harengus L. was studied in the laboratory. The medusae were captured in Loch Etive, Scotland. Herring larvae were reared from the extificially fertilized eggs of spawning Clyde herring caught in March, 1982. Swimming speeds, volume searched”, capture efficiency and predation rates increased as medusa size increased. Predation rates on fish larvae increased with prey density, but appeared to approach a maximum at high prey densities; in 1 h experiments, a maximum rate of predation of 6.64 larvae h^-1 was estimated by fitting an Ivlev function. A model to predict predation rates was constructed from swimming speeds, sizes and densities of medusae and larvae, and capture efficiency. The rates of predation predicted from the model fell within the range of experimental data, but tended to underestimate rates and did not account for saturation of medusae. Swimming patterns of medusae changed after prey capture: (a) before capture, encounter rates were low and medusae were relatively less active; (b) after capture of 1 larva, encounter rates doubled, with the stimulated medusae exhibiting increased activity and an aftered “searching” path; and (c) after capture of many larvae, swimming speeds and encounter rates of medusae decreased.     

Quantifying social synergy in insect and human societies

What are the benefits of society? What are the adaptive advantages of social behavior? The fact that societies exist suggest that society favors synergies in the interactions between individuals. One such synergy or adaptive advantage might be the increased efficiency in the use of scarce resources. This has been postulated to occur in the “metabolic scaling law”, where larger organisms with more cells consume less energy per unit mass than smaller organisms. Here, I develop a similar scale-free index for social synergy applicable to energy consumption, and apply it to social insect colonies and human cities. The results show that all societies studied increase the efficiency of energy consumption with increased sizes. This study shows that social synergy is reliably quantifiable and that its increase with size is much larger in social insects than that observed with the metabolic scaling law in organisms. This allows for the first time to compare quantitatively very different societies, permitting novel studies in social dynamics, for example, the study shows that termite colonies achieve much higher social synergy than ant and honey bee colonies and that Brazilian cities achieve more social synergy than Danish or North American ones, posing new intriguing questions.     

A model approach to evaluate the effect of temperature and food concentration on individual life-history and population dynamics of Daphnia

We present a model framework for the simulation of growth and reproduction of Daphnia at varying conditions of food concentration and temperature. The core of our framework consists of an individual level model that simulates allocation of assimilated carbon into somatic growth, maintenance costs, and reproduction on the basis of a closed carbon budget. A fixed percentage of assimilated carbon is allocated into somatic growth and maintenance costs. Special physiological adaptations in energy acquisition and usage allow realistic model performance even at very low food concentrations close to minimal food requirements. All model parameters are based on physiological measures taken from the literature. Model outputs were thoroughly validated on data from a life-table experiment with Daphnia galeata. For the first time, a successful model validation was performed at such low food concentrations. The escalator boxcar train (EBT) was used to integrate this individual level model into a stage-structured population model. In advance to previous applications of the EBT to Daphnia we included an additional clutch compartment into the model structure that accounts for the characteristic time delay between egg deposition and hatching in cladocerans. By linking two levels of biological organisation, this model approach represents a comprehensive framework for studying Daphnia both at laboratory conditions and in the field. We compared outputs of our stage-structured model with predictions by two other models having analogous parameterisation: (i) another individual level Daphnia model (Kooijman–Metz model) and (ii) a classical unstructured population model. In contrast to our Daphnia model, the Kooijman–Metz model lacks the structure to account for the optimisation of energy acquisition and maintenance requirements by individual daphnids. The unstructured population model showed different patterns of population dynamics that were not in concordance with typical patterns observed in the field. Thus, we conclude our model provides a comprehensive tool for the simulation of growth and reproduction of Daphnia and corresponding population dynamics.     

Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.     

Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics

An individual-based model was developed to predict the population dynamics of Daphnia magna at laboratory conditions from individual life-history traits observed in experiments with different feeding conditions. Within the model, each daphnid passes its individual life cycle including feeding on algae, aging, growing, developing and – when maturity is reached – reproducing. The modelled life cycle is driven by the amount of ingested algae and the density of the Daphnia population. At low algae densities the population dynamics is mainly driven by food supply, when the densities of algae are high, the limiting factor is “crowding” (a density-dependent mechanism due to chemical substances released by the organisms or physical contact, but independent of food competition).     

Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach

Macroalgae are a major benthic component of coral reefs and their dynamics influence the resilience of coral reefs to disturbance. However, the relative importance of physical and ecological processes in driving macroalgal dynamics is poorly understood. Here we develop a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model to integrate many of these processes and predict the growth of coral reef macroalgae. Bayesian belief networks use probabilistic relationships rather than deterministic rules to quantify the cause and effect assumptions. The model was developed using both new empirical data and quantified relationships elicited from previous studies. We demonstrate the efficacy of the BBN to predict the dynamics of a common Caribbean macroalgal genus Dictyota. Predictions of the model have an average accuracy of 55% (implying that 55% of the predicted categories of Dictyota cover were assigned to the correct class). Sensitivity analysis suggested that macroalgal dynamics were primarily driven by top–down processes of grazing rather than bottom–up nutrification. BBNs provide a useful framework for modelling complex systems, identifying gaps in our scientific understanding and communicating the complexities of the associated uncertainties in an explicit manner to stakeholders. We anticipate that accuracies will improve as new data are added to the model.     

Some aspects of the circulatory physiology of the spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus

The blood circulatory system and the circulatory dynamics of the spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus (Randall) have been examined in detail. A mean absolute blood pressure of 36.5 cm-H₂O and a mean pulse pressure of 27 cm-H₂O, show this species to have the highest pressure-driven circulation yet measured in decapod crustaceans. Mean blood velocities have been directly measured in intact animals for the first time. These velocities range from over 10 cm/sec in the large arteries to less than 1.0 cm/sec in the sinuses. Total blood volume is variable but averages near 30% of the wet weight, while heart volume averages 0.3% of the wet weight. The blood velocity and volume data are used to compute circulatory parameters such as cardiac output, stroke volume and turnover time. Comparisons with other animals suggest that the so-called “open-system” characteristic of crustaceans may be much more effective than previously supposed.     

Bridging the gap between laboratory experiments and naturally occurring markets: An inferred valuation method

Several recent studies have found important differences between behavior in the laboratory and the field. We explore two possible causes for the divergence: social concerns and unfamiliarity with the traded good. Consistent with our conceptual model, we find that people overstated their preferences for relatively familiar goods with normative attributes and understated their preferences for a relatively unfamiliar good with low normative motivations in the laboratory as compared to the field. We also find that for goods with a normative dimension, a new method we refer to as inferred valuation has the potential to narrow the lab–field gap. In some cases, willingness-to-pay obtained from a conventional valuation elicitation method is more than twice the value from the new inferred valuation approach.     

Colony fusion causes within-colony variation in a parthenogenetic ant

The evolutionary stability of cooperation and altruism in colonies of social insects requires that nestmates be to some extent related. An efficient system of discrimination against non-nestmates protects the nest against unrelated conspecifics, which might exploit or parasitize the colony. The co-occurrence of unrelated individuals in mature colonies therefore is a rare event that deserves more attention. Here, we report on the relatively common incidence of colony fusion in the ant Platythyrea punctata. Workers of this ant can produce genetically identical female offspring from unfertilized eggs through thelytokous parthenogenesis. Consequently, the majority of colonies has a “clonal structure” and consists of individuals with identical multilocus genotypes. Nevertheless, field observations indicate that a surprisingly large percentage of colonies contain workers belonging to two or more different genetic lineages. Much of this genetic heterogeneity is incompatible with eventual recombination or mutation events, but instead appears to result from colony fusion or the adoption of unrelated individuals. Indeed, colonies of P. punctata from the Dominican Republic and Barbados readily merged in the laboratory and, after elimination of one of the two reproductive workers, formed stable, genetically heterogeneous colonies. We discuss the possible causes and benefits of colony fusion in natural populations.