Relative Contributions of Sampling Error in Initial Population Size and Vital Rates to Outcomes of Population Viability Analysis

Abstract:  We evaluated the relative contributions of sampling error (randomly chosen standard errors applied as 0–30% of parameter estimates) in initial population size and vital rates (survival and reproduction) to the outcome of a simulated population viability analysis for grizzly bears (  Ursus arctos ). Error in initial population size accounted for the largest source of variation (model II analysis of variance, F _25,5= 10.8, p = 0.00001) in simulation outcomes, explaining 60.5% of the variance. In contrast, error in vital rates contributed little to simulation outcomes ( F _25,5= 0.61, p = 0.70), accounting for only 2.4% of model variation. Reduced global variation in vital rates, as a result of independent random sampling of annual deviates for each parameter, likely contributed to the results. Errors in estimates of initial population size, if ignored in PVA, have the potential to leave managers with estimates of population persistence that are of little value for making management decisions.     

Dimensionless Life Histories and Effective Population Size

The effective size ( N _e ) of a population can be estimated from demographic information. We evaluated a recent model, showing that N _e depends strongly on the relationship between age at reproductive maturity ( M ) and average adult lifespan ( A ). N _e converges on half the number of potentially reproducing adults ( N/2 ) as M decreases relative to A , but it increases linearly as M increases for a given value of A . Therefore, convergence of N _e on N/2 is more likely in organisms with a short sexual maturation period scaled to adult lifespan. To assess the generality of this convergence we asked whether most organisms are characterized by this requisite relationship between M and A . The dimensionless number M/A is approximately invariant within taxa, but it is markedly different across taxa. Previous work focused on birds and mammals, taxa with unusually small M/A (0.4 and 0.75). Other animal taxa take longer than most birds and mammals to reach maturity for a given reproductive lifespan, so they are characterized by larger M/A (e.g., fish, 2.0). In theory, these taxon-specific life histories strongly influence N _e . We conclude that N _e is expected to approach N/2 , provided that M/A is (unusually) small, and that N _e / N among poikilotherms may often exceed that of mammals and especially birds.     

Predicting Extinction Times from Environmental Stochasticity and Carrying Capacity

Managers of small populations often need to estimate the expected time to extinction T_e of their charges. Useful models for extinction times must be ecologically realistic and depend on measurable parameters. Many populations become extinct due to environmental stochasticity, even when the carrying capacity K is stable and the expected growth rate is positive. A model is proposed that gives T_e by diffusion analysis of the log population size n_t (= log_e N_t). The model population grows according to the equation N_t+1 = R_tN_t, with K as a ceiling. Application of the model requires estimation of the parameters k = logK, r_d = the expected change in n, v_r = Variance(log R), and ϱ the autocorrelation of the r_t. These are readily calculable from annual census data (r_d is trickiest to estimate). General formulas for T_e are derived. As a special case, when environmental fluctuations overwhelm expected growth (that is r_d 0), T_e = 2n_o(k - n_o/2)/v_r. If the r_t are autocorrelated, then the effective variance is v_re v_r (1 + ϱ)/(1 - ϱ). The theory is applied to populations of checkerspot butterfly, grizzly bear, wolf, and mountain lion.     

Genetic and Demographic Threats to the Black Rhinoceros Population in the Ngorongoro Crater

A resident population of 13 black rhinoceros ( Diceros bicornis ) persist in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania. The effective population size ( N _e ) may be as few as 5 animals. Projected growth for this population suggests that the effective population size will remain small for the near future, threatening this Iocal population with extinction due to the stochastic factors associated with small population size. A summary of historic and recent demographic data for this population reveals a population crash during the period of heavy poaching that affected this species throughout its range. Although poaching of this species has been brought under control the population remains small. These data and models of projected population growth argue for consideration of more-intensive management within the framework of the small population paradigm. This case is an example of applied conservation resulting from this paradigm used in conjunction with rather than competing with the declining population paradigm. We identify additional monitoring, particularly of density-dependent behaviors, that will be necessary for designing a successful management program. Finally, the use of molecular markers for developing an accurate pedigree for this population is suggested in order to maintain a genetically healthy population. These strategies have broad applicability to black rhinoceros conservation throughout Africa.     

Genetic Diversity in a Threatened Wetland Species, Helonias bullata (Liliaceae)

Genetic variation was examined in Helonias bullata , a threatened perennial plant species that occurs in isolated wetland habitats. Fifteen populations representing the species' geographic range were sampled. Genetic diversity was low for the species ( H _es = 0.053) as well as within populations ( H _ep = 0.029). Of the 33 allozyme loci examined, 11 (33%) were polymorphic, while on average only 12.8% (4) of the loci were polymorphic within populations. The number of alleles per polymorphic locus was 2.36 for the species and averaged 2.09 across populations. For every genetic parameter calculated, variation in H. bullata was lower than that typically found for narrowly distributed plant species. The lowest levels of genetic diversity were found in northern areas that were colonized following the last glacial epoch. The number of genotypes detected per population ranged from three to 21, with a mean of 13 for this clonally reproducing species. We found a relatively high proportion of total genetic diversity (30.6%) among populations and a significant correlation (p < 0.002) between genetic distance and geographic distance. Genetic drift phenomena appear to play a major role in the population genetics of this species. Anomalously, several populations that appeared most limited in size and vigor were genetically most variable, perhaps because they represent older, relictual populations. Life-history characteristics of H. bullata coupled with low levels of genetic diversity and the degradation and disappearance of wetlands threaten the existence of this species.     

Effectiveness of a Regional Corridor in Connecting Two Florida Black Bear Populations

Abstract:  Corridors may mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation by restoring or maintaining connectivity between disjunct populations. The efficacy of corridors for large carnivores, however, has rarely been evaluated objectively. We used noninvasive sampling, microsatellite analysis, and population assignment tests to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear ( Ursus americanus floridanus ) populations (Osceola and Ocala). Bear movement was predominantly unidirectional, with a limited mixing of individuals from the two populations in one area of the corridor. We also documented bears in Osceola that were genetically assigned to Ocala and bears in Osceola that may be offspring from an Osceola-Ocala mating. Our results indicate that the Osceola-Ocala corridor is functional and provides a conduit for gene flow between these populations. Human development, however, may hinder the use of the Osceola-Ocala corridor by bears. The noninvasive sampling and genetic methods we used provide a means of evaluating corridor effectiveness that can help identify linkages necessary for maintaining metapopulation structure and population viability.     

Effects of Population Size, Mating System, and Evolutionary Origin on Genetic Diversity in Spiranthes sinensis and S. hongkongensis

Hong Kong once supported more than 109 species of wild orchids, of which approximately 30% were endemic. Most of the local wild orchids have now become rare or endangered. I conducted a comparative study of genetic diversity in two closely related terrestrial orchids, an allotetraploid, Spiranthes hongkongensis , and its diploid progenitor, S. sinensis , to assess the effects of the population bottleneck associated with the origin of the polyploid and to investigate the relationships between number of breeding individuals, mating system, and level of isozyme variation in their populations. Nearly complete genetic uniformity was observed both within and among populations of S. hongkongensis . In contrast, S. sinensis had high levels of genetic variation for all of the genetic parameters examined. Regression analysis of population size and several components of genetic diversity in S. sinensis revealed that, among various measures of within-population variation, the proportion of polymorphic loci ( P ) and average number of alleles per locus ( A ) or per polymorphic locus ( A _p ) were the most sensitive to population size ( R ² = 0.942, p = 0.001; R ² = 0.932, p = 0.002; and R ² = 0.923, p = 0.002 respectively). The highly negative correlation ( r = −0.999, p < 0.01) between population size and the mean frequency of private alleles in pairwise population comparisons, p (1), indicated that population size may also be used to predict the extent of population differentiation caused by random genetic drift. Conservation of genetic diversity in S. sinensis could be maximized by protecting several of both large and small populations, whereas fewer populations may be needed to achieve this goal for S. hongkongensis.     

Mass concentrations and temporal profiles of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 near major urban roads in Beijing

Mass concentrations of PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and PM₁ were measured near major roads in Beijing during six periods: summer and winter of 2001, winter of 2007, and periods before, during and after the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Since the control efforts for motor vehicles helped offset the increase of emissions from the rapid growth of vehicles, the averaged PM_2.5 concentrations at roadsides during the sampling period between 2001 and 2008 fluctuated over a relatively small range. With the implementation of temporary traffic control measures during the Olympics, a clear “V” shaped curve showing the concentrations of particulate matter and other gaseous air pollutants at roadsides over time was identified. The average concentrations of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, CO and NO decreased by 31.2%, 46.3%, 32.3% and 35.4%, respectively, from June to August; this was followed by a rebound of all air pollutants in December 2008. Daily PM₁₀ concentrations near major roads exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (Grade II) for 61.2% of the days in the non-Olympic periods, while only for 12.5% during the Olympics. The mean ratio of PM_2.5/PM₁₀ near major roads remained relatively stable at 0.55 (±0.108) on non-Olympic days. The ratio decreased to 0.48 (±0.099) during the Olympics due to a greater decline in fine particles than in coarse-mode PM. The ratios PM₁/PM_2.5 fluctuated over a wide range and were statistically different from each other during the sampling periods. The average ratios of PM₁/PM_2.5 on non-Olympic days were 0.71.     

Roads and Landscape Pattern in Northern Wisconsin Based on a Comparison of Four Road Data Sources

Abstract:  Roads are important components of landscapes; they fragment habitat, facilitate invasive species spread, alter hydrology, and influence patterns of land use. Previous research on the ecological impacts of roads may have underestimated their effect because currently available sources of road data do not include the full road network. We compared differences in road density and landscape pattern among U.S. Census Bureau TIGER line files, U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale digital line graphs, and U.S. Geological Survey 1:24,000-scale digital raster graphics in northern Wisconsin to road data derived from 1:40,000-scale digital orthophotos. Road density measured from digital orthophotos (2.82 km/km²) was significantly greater than that of digital raster graphics (1.62 km/km²) and more than double that of digital line graphs (1.21 km/km²) and TIGER (1.27 km/km²) data. The increased road densities in raster graphics and orthophoto data were mainly due to the addition of minor roads. When all roads were used to define patch boundaries, landscape metrics produced with orthophoto data showed significantly greater levels of fragmentation than those based on line or raster graphics. For example, maximum patch size was 1074 ha and total edge was 109 km for line graphs, compared with 686 ha and 211 km for orthophoto data. Roads are missing in commonly used data, primarily because mapping standards systematically exclude minor roads. These standards are not ecologically based and may result in false assumptions about the ecological effects of roads. We recommend that future studies take special consideration of the completeness of road data and consider whether all ecologically relevant roads are included.     

A Population Viability Analysis for African Elephant (Loxodonta africana): How Big Should Reserves Be?

We present an age-structured, density-dependent model of elephant population dynamics in a fluctuating environment, drawing primarily upon the life history parameters obtained from studies in semi-arid land at Tsavo National Park, Kenya. Density regulation occurs by changes in the age of first reproduction and calving interval. We model environmental stochasticity with drought events affecting sex- and age-specific survivorships. Results indicate a maximum population growth rate of 3% per year and an equilibrium elephant density of 3.1/mile². Analysis of the demographic results and their sensitivity to changes in juvenile survivorship and drought frequencies, supported by genetic considerations, suggests that in semi-arid regions a minimum reserve size of 1000 mile² is necessary to attain a 99% probability of population persistence for 1000 years. The effect of age-independent culling on population viability is also analyzed.     

Genetic Diversity, Population Size, and Fitness in Central and Peripheral Populations of a Rare Plant Lychnis viscaria

Abstract: Genetic diversity is expected to decrease in small and isolated populations as a consequence of bottlenecks, founder effects, inbreeding, and genetic drift. The genetics and ecology of the rare perennial plant Lychnis viscaria (Caryophyllaceae) were studied in both peripheral and central populations within its distribution area. We aimed to investigate the overall level of genetic diversity, its spatial distribution, and possible differences between peripheral and central populations by examining several populations with electrophoresis. Our results showed that the level of genetic diversity varied substantially among populations (  H _exp = 0.000–0.116) and that the total level of genetic diversity (mean H _exp = 0.056) was low compared to that of other species with similar life-history attributes. The peripheral populations of L. viscaria had less genetic variation (mean H _exp = 0.034) than the central ones (0.114). Analysis of genetic structure suggested limited gene flow (mean F _ST = 0.430) and high differentiation among populations, emphasizing the role of genetic drift (  N _e m = 0.33). Isolation was even higher than expected based on the physical distance among populations. We also focused on the association between population size and genetic diversity and possible effects on fitness of these factors. Population size was positively correlated with genetic diversity. Population size and genetic diversity, however, were not associated with fitness components such as germination rate, seedling mass, or seed yield. There were no differences in the measured fitness components between peripheral and central populations. Even though small and peripheral populations had lower levels of genetic variation, they were as viable as larger populations, which emphasizes their potential value for conservation.     

Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Effective Population Size in the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

Abstract:  We assessed spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity to evaluate effects of river fragmentation on remnant populations of the federally endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ). Analysis of microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA detected little spatial genetic structure over the current geographic range, consistent with high gene flow despite fragmentation by dams. Maximum-likelihood analysis of temporal genetic data indicated, however, that present-day effective population size ( N_eV ) of the largest extant population of this species was 78 and the ratio of effective size to adult numbers ( N_eV/N ) was ∼ 0.001 during the study period (1999 to 2001). Coalescent-based analytical methods provided an estimate of historical (river fragmentation was completed in 1975) effective size ( N_eI  ) that ranged between 10⁵ and 10⁶. We propose that disparity between contemporary and historical estimates of N_e and low contemporary N_e/N result from recent changes in demography related to river fragmentation. Rio Grande silvery minnows produce pelagic eggs and larvae subject to downstream transport through diversion dams. This life-history feature results in heavy losses of yearly reproductive effort to emigration and mortality, and extremely large variance in reproductive success among individuals and spawning localities. Interaction of pelagic early life history and river fragmentation has altered demographic and genetic dynamics of remnant populations and reduced N_e to critically low values over ecological time.     

Demographic Connectivity for Ursid Populations at Wildlife Crossing Structures in Banff National Park

Wildlife crossing structures are one solution to mitigating the fragmentation of wildlife populations caused by roads, but their effectiveness in providing connectivity has only been superficially evaluated. Hundreds of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (Ursus americanus) passages through under and overpasses have been recorded in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. However, the ability of crossing structures to allow individual and population‐level movements across road networks remains unknown. In April 2006, we initiated a 3‐year investigation into whether crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for grizzly and black bears in Banff National Park. We collected hair with multiple noninvasive methods to obtain genetic samples from grizzly and black bears around the Bow Valley. Our objectives were to determine the number of male and female grizzly and black bears that use crossing structures; examine spatial and temporal patterns of crossings; and estimate the proportions of grizzly and black bear populations in the Bow Valley that use crossing structures. Fifteen grizzly (7 female, 8 male) and 17 black bears (8 female, 9 male) used wildlife crossing structures. The number of individuals detected at wildlife crossing structures was highly correlated with the number of passages in space and time. Grizzly bears used open crossing structures (e.g., overpasses) more often than constricted crossings (e.g., culverts). Peak use of crossing structures for both bear species occurred in July, when high rates of foraging activity coincide with mating season. We compared the number of bears that used crossings with estimates of population abundance from a related study and determined that substantial percentages of grizzly (15.0% in 2006, 19.8% in 2008) and black bear (17.6% in 2006, 11.0% in 2008) populations used crossing structures. On the basis of our results, we concluded wildlife crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for bear populations in Banff National Park. Conectividad Demográfica para Poblaciones de Úrsidos en Estructuras para Cruce de Vida Silvestre en el Parque Nacional Banff     

Genetic Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Common Species of Swiss Fen Meadows

Abstract:  The area of Caricion davallianae alliance in Switzerland has been considerably reduced and fragmented during the last 150 years. We assessed the genetic variability, inbreeding level, and among-population differentiation of two common habitat-specific plant species, Carex davalliana SM. and Succisa pratensis Moench, in 18 Caricion davallianae fen meadows subjected to fragmentation. We used a spatial field design of fen systems (six systems total), each consisting of one large habitat island and two small habitat islands. We used allozyme electrophoresis to derive standard genetic parameters ( A, P, H_O, H_E, F_IS, F_ST ). In Carex we identified a consistently lower A in isolated habitat islands; furthermore, H_E was lower in small habitat islands than in large habitat islands. In Succisa we identified a lower H_O in small habitat islands than in larger ones. Small habitat islands were marginally significantly differentiated (  F_ST ) from large islands for Succisa . For both species, no effects were evident for F_IS ; therefore, we argue that genetic drift rather than inbreeding is the main cause of the observed differences. The genetic structure of Carex and Succisa in small habitat islands differed from that in large habitat islands, but differences were small. It appears that the observed differences in genetic variability among fen meadows correspond to observed differences in fitness and demographic traits. We show that habitat fragmentation affects not only the rare species in an ecosystem but also reduces the survival probabilities of common species. One of the main goals of conservation should be to mitigate fragmentation of natural habitats in order to increase population sizes and connectivity.     

Conservation and Management of a Threatened Madagascar Palm Species, Neodypsis decaryi, Jumelle

The dynamics of a remnant population of the palm Neodypsis decaryi were characterized using a linear, stage-structured demographic model. This palm is a threatened keystone species restricted to a narrow ecological zone in southeastern Madagascar. The population showed high mortality rates in the early stages of the life cycle, followed by a period of lower adult mortality. Demographic results indicated that the population was either stable or increasing inside the reserve (λ _m close to 1.0). Sensitivity and elasticity analyses indicated that adult stage classes were the most sensitive to producing changes in population growth rates. Continued biological monitoring is appropriate for the long-term conservation management of this palm inside the reserve. Outside the protected area the population appears to be declining rapidly, mainly because of anthropogenic effects (especially fire and grazing). If the conservation of Neodypsis decaryi is to be successful in the long term, then conservation methods must be carried out in cooperation with local villagers, and the species should be managed as a renewable resource in situ and ex situ. In situ conservation should include cultivation of this species throughout its natural range and protection of the existing viable natural populations. Alternative conservation management practices, both ecologically and economically sustainable, may be useful to alleviate the human pressures on this renewable resource. If leaves of N. decaryi are to be harvested by local people, we recommend restricting annual harvesting to about 25% of leaves per tree per year. Based on sensitivity analysis, seed collection should be kept well below 95% of the yearly crop if harvesting is not to have a significant impact on population growth rates.     

Effective Population Size and Lifetime Reproductive Success

The mean and variance of lifetime reproductive success, E_LRS and V_LRS, influence the ratio of effective to census population size, N_e/N_c. Because the complete data needed to calculate E_LRS and V_LRS are seldom available, we provide alternatives for estimating N_e/N_c from incomplete data. These estimates should be useful to conservation biologists trying to compute the effective size of a censused population. An analytical approach makes assumptions regarding the process influencing offspring survival. We provide a method for examining the validity of those assumptions and show that particular violations can result in either over- or underestimates. When the assumptions are violated or when more data are available, we suggest estimating N_e/N_c using computer simulations of models based on individuals. We examine how such simulations can be used to estimate N_e/N_c using an individual-based model for Lesser Snow Geese ( Anser caerulescens ). We demonstrate that such estimates can be biased unless the simulations are based on complete cohorts and samples of known age. We show that because the estimate of N_e/N_c depends on the stage of the reproductive cycle used as a point of reference in the model, the census population size N_c must be based on the same stage to provide unbiased estimates of N_e.     

Rapid Loss of Genetic Variation in Large Captive Populations of Drosophila Flies: Implications for the Genetic Management of Captive Populations

Levels of variation in eight large captive populations of D. melanogaster (census sizes ∼ 5000) that had been in captivity for periods from 6 months to 23 years (8 to 365 generations) were estimated from allozyme heterozygosities, lethal frequencies, and inversion heterozygosities and phenotypic variances, additive genetic variances ( V _A), and heritabilities ( h ²) for sternopleural bristle numbers. Correlations between all measures of variation except lethal frequencies were high and significant. All measures of genetic variation declined with time in captivity, with those for average heterozygosities, V _A, and h ² being significant. The effective population size ( N _e) was estimated to be 185–253 in these populations, only 0.037–0.051 of census size (N). Levels of allozyme heterozygosities declined rapidly in two large captive populations founded from another wild stock, being reduced by 86% and 62% within 2.5 years in spite of being maintained at sizes of approximately 1000 and 3500. Estimates of N _e/ N for these populations were only 0.016 and 0.004. Two estimates of N _e/ N for captive populations of D. pseudoobscura from data in the literature were also low at 0.036 and 0.012. Consequently, the rate of loss of genetic variation in captive populations and endangered species may be more rapid than hitherto recognized. Merely maintaining captive populations at large census sizes may not be sufficient to maintain essential genetic variation.     

Lessons from Białowieża Forest on the history of protection and the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore

Understanding how the relationships between large carnivores and humans have evolved and have been managed through centuries can provide relevant insights for wildlife conservation. The management history of many large carnivores has followed a similar pattern, from game reserved for nobility, to persecuted pests, to conservation targets. We reconstructed the history of brown bear (Ursus arctos) management in Bia?owie?a Forest (Poland and Belarus) based on a detailed survey of historical literature and Russian archives. From the end of the Middle Ages to the end of 18th century, the brown bear was considered “animalia superiora” (i.e., game exclusively reserved for nobility and protected by law). Bears, also a source of public entertainment, were not regarded as a threat. Effective measures to prevent damages to traditional forest beekeeping were already in practice. In the beginning of 19th century, new game‐management approaches allowed most forest officials to hunt bears, which became the primary target of hunters due to their valuable pelt. This, together with an effective anticarnivore policy enhanced by bounties, led to bear extirpation in 1879. Different approaches to scientific game management appeared (planned extermination of predators and hunting levels that would maintain stable populations), as did the first initiatives to protect bears from cruel treatment in captivity. Bear reintroduction in Bia?owie?a Forest began in 1937 and represented the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore motivated by conservation goals. The outbreak of World War II spoiled what might have been a successful project; reproduction in the wild was documented for 8 years and bear presence for 13. Soft release of cubs born in captivity inside the forest but freely roaming with minimal human contact proved successful. Release of captive human‐habituated bears, feeding of these bears, and a lack of involvement of local communities were weaknesses of the project. Large carnivores are key components of ecosystem‐function restoration, and site‐specific histories provide important lessons in how to preserve them for the future.     

Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia: A tool in the conservation management of a threatened species

In this paper, we address three aspects of the brown bear population in Slovenia: its size (and its evolution over time), its spatial expansion out of the core area, and its potential habitat based on natural habitat suitability. Data collected through measurement/observation of the bear population and from the literature are used. A model is developed for each aspect. The results are estimates of population size, a picture of the spatial expansion of the population and maps of its optimal and maximal potential habitat (based on natural suitability). Overall, the brown bear population has been increasing since the establishment of a core protective area and has been expanding outside this area. The habitat suitability maps show that there is room for further expansion. Based on habitat suitability and bear population density, as well as human activity and current damage reports, we recommend that the Alps should be temporarily kept free of the bears, until the necessary mitigation measures regarding human–bear conflicts are carried out. On the other hand it is of crucial importance to adapt human activities and improve bear management in the optimal habitat, with which the goals of successful conservation of the species might be achieved.     

Potential Effects of a Forest Management Plan on Bachman's Sparrows (Aimophila aestivalis): Linking a Spatially Explicit Model with GIS

By combining a spatially explicit, individual-based population simulation model with a geographic information system, we have simulated the potential effects of a U.S. Forest Service management plan on the population dynamics of Bachman's Sparrow ( Aimophila aestivalis ) at the Savannah River Site, a U.S. Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. Although the Forest Service's management plan explicitly sets management goals for many species, most of the prescribed management strategy deals with the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) because of legal requirements. We explored how a species (the sparrow) that is not the target of specific management strategies but that shares some habitat requirements with the woodpecker, would fare under the management plan. We found that the major components of the proposed management plan may allow the sparrow population to reach and exceed the minimum management goal set for this species, but only after a substantial initial decline in sparrow numbers and a prolonged transition period. In the model, the sparrow population dynamics were most sensitive to demographic variables such as adult and juvenile survivorship and to landscape variables such as the suitability of young clearcuts and mature pine stands. Using various assumptions about habitat suitability, we estimated that the 50-year probability of population extinction is at least 5% or may be much higher if juvenile survivorship is low. We believe, however, that modest changes in the management plan might greatly increase the sparrow population and presumably decrease the probability of extinction. Our results suggest that management plans focusing on one or a few endangered species may potentially threaten other species of management concern. Spatially explicit population models are a useful tool in designing modifications of management plans that can reduce the impact on nontarget species of management concern.