东沙沙洲离岸潮间带风电场建设对鸟类的影响

对东沙沙洲离岸潮间带风电场的建设给鸟类造成的影响进行了调查。分析表明,噪声对东沙沙洲迁徙鸟类影响不大;光对夜间迁徙鸟类造成一定的影响;风机对候鸟迁徙影响不大,少数低飞候鸟可能存在撞机风险;风机基础和人工岛的永久占地造成的直接生物量损失为3.2 t/a,总计损失约64万元;风电场建设将使东沙沙洲鸟类栖息地面积减少81.5 km2,约占总栖息地面积的13.9%,但风机对鸻鹬类等中小型涉禽、水鸟的觅食影响不大,风电场区域仍可作为这些鸟类的觅食地。在影响分析的基础上提出了设计、施工、运营阶段相应的防范措施。     

Approaching population thresholds in presence of uncertainty: Assessing displacement of seabirds from offshore wind farms

Assessment of the displacement impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds is impeded by a lack of evidence regarding species-specific reactions to developed sites and the potential ecological consequences faced by displaced individuals. In this study, we present a method that makes best use of the currently limited understanding of displacement impacts. The combination of a matrix table displaying the full range of potential displacement and mortality levels together with seasonal potential biological removal (PBR) assessments provides a tool that increases confidence in the conclusions of impact assessments. If unrealistic displacement levels and/or mortality rates are required to equal or approach seasonal PBRs, this gives an indication of the likeliness of adverse impacts on the assessed population. This approach is demonstrated by assessing the displacement impacts of an offshore wind farm cluster in the German North Sea on the local common guillemot (Uria aalge) population.     

Can Offshore Wind Energy Be a Lever for Job Creation in France? Some Insights from a Local Case Study

The French government has launched three separate calls for tender in July 2011, March 2013, and December 2016 to install 3.5 GW of offshore wind. In addition to contributing to the fulfillment of environmental commitments, the deployment of offshore wind energy is expected to be a lever for economic development. To assess gross economic impacts, mainly in terms of job creation, we built a regional input-output model of the wind farm off Saint-Brieuc located in the region of Brittany, north-western France. Our model indicates that the project will have positive effects on Brittany’s economy. In particular, during the investment phase, the wind farm is expected to lead to €0.38 M/year/MW of added value and 6.03 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs/year/MW. During the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase, the model predicts the generation of €0.15 M/year/MW of added value and 1.02 FTE jobs/year/MW. These results imply that the project will increase Brittany’s GDP slightly by 0.22 and 0.09% during the investment and O&M phases, respectively. Results also show that out of total wealth created in France, 38 and 66% will be created in Brittany as well as 32 and 51% of employment during respectively investment and O&M phases. A comparative analysis highlights in particular that economic impacts are generally stronger during the investment phase. It also demonstrates that the magnitude of economic impacts depends on the proportion of local industries in the supply chain. Policy implications of our model stress the need to revise the economic, technological, regulatory, and social frameworks within which the offshore wind industry currently operates in France to establish the conditions necessary for its development.     

Analysis of Wind Farm Output: Estimation of Volatility Using High-Frequency Data

In the financial year 2011–2012, wind farms supplied 26 % of South Australia’s electricity demand according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s report. This contribution has risen from zero in 2003. The operation of the electricity grid depends heavily on knowledge of the variability of supply. Wind farm output displays similar conditional volatility as financial market variables. In this paper, a new method of estimating wind farm output volatility on a 5-min time scale is developed through the use of higher-frequency wind farm output data. First, an autoregressive model for the high-frequency data is developed, and it is used to derive a volatility measure for 5-min data. The results are also true in certain general situations when the high-frequency data follow an autoregressive moving average process or exhibits long memory features. The methods described here are analogous to realised volatility measures used in financial series, except that wind farm output data are measured at uniform intervals, unlike random trading times for financial transactions.     

风电场噪声影响模拟方法研究

以浙江沿海某海岛风电场为例,在做好风电场噪声监测数据质量保证的基础上,分析风电场噪声等效声级和距离的关系模型,运用GIS的空间分析功能对研究区的噪声影响进行预测和叠加分析,模拟得到10 m/s风速时风电场噪声的噪声空间影响分布,并提出风机在不同运行工况时风电场噪声的模拟方法和防治措施。该研究为风电场噪声影响分析和管理部门提供参考。     

A practical wind farm siting framework integrating ecosystem services — A case study of coastal China

Deploying renewable energy (RE) technologies has been acknowledged as an effective way of mitigating the pressure from increasing energy-related carbon emissions. However, evidence shows that RE deployment frequently leads to the loss and degradation of multiple ecosystem services (ES). Therefore, a sustainable RE deployment scheme should proactively identify and manage the potential trade-offs between RE production and ES provisioning. This study proposed a practical RE siting framework that integrates ES considerations (named as IES framework), and formulated a novel method that integrates Geographic Information Systems, fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Slacks-based Measure to implement this framework. Then, the suitability of wind farm sites in coastal China was evaluated and mapped using the IES framework. Results show that the suitable locations for wind farms in this region were mainly distributed in the provinces of Shandong, Hebei, Liaoning, and Jiangsu. Avian habitat and cultural ES were identified as the two services most vulnerable to wind farm deployment. A suitability map of wind farm siting in coastal China was created. Results prove that the proposed IES framework and the corresponding integrated method can effectively evaluate the trade-offs between RE production and ES provisioning and can be easily extended to guide the site selection for other REs, such as biomass, photovoltaic, and hydroelectric energy.     

Application of wind-profiling radar data to the analysis of dust weather in the Taklimakan Desert

The Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration carried out an atmospheric scientific experiment to detect dust weather using a wind-profiling radar in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert in April 2010. Based on the wind-profiling data obtained from this experiment, this paper seeks to (a) analyze the characteristics of the horizontal wind field and vertical velocity of a breaking dust weather in a desert hinterland; (b) calculate and give the radar echo intensity and vertical distribution of a dust storm, blowing sand, and floating dust weather; and (c) discuss the atmosphere dust counts/concentration derived from the wind-profiling radar data. Studies show that: (a) A wind-profiling radar is an upper-air atmospheric remote sensing system that effectively detects and monitors dust. It captures the beginning and ending of a dust weather process as well as monitors the sand and dust being transported in the air in terms of height, thickness, and vertical intensity. (b) The echo intensity of a blowing sand and dust storm weather episode in Taklimakan is about ?1~10 dBZ while that of floating dust ?1~?15 dBZ, indicating that the dust echo intensity is significantly weaker than that of precipitation but stronger than that of clear air. (c) The vertical shear of horizontal wind and the maintenance of low-level east wind are usually dynamic factors causing a dust weather process in Taklimakan. The moment that the low-level horizontal wind field finds a shear over time, it often coincides with the onset of a sand blowing and dust storm weather process. (d) When a blowing sand or dust storm weather event occurs, the atmospheric vertical velocity tends to be of upward motion. This vertical upward movement of the atmosphere supported with a fast horizontal wind and a dry underlying surface carries dust particles from the ground up to the air to form blown sand or a dust storm.     

内蒙古呼和浩特市沙尘天气变化规律及防治对策

以呼和浩特市30年(1971~2000年)气象资料为基础,运用数理统计理论,分析了呼和浩特市沙尘天气的时间变化特征及其与降水量、气温、风速、相对湿度、蒸发量等气象因子的关系。结果表明,沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘等沙尘天气在年代际、年际、季节与月变化上具有一致性。20世纪70年代沙尘天气发生的日数最多,从1970年代到1990年代沙尘天气发生日数总体上波动下降。沙尘天气的年际变化均以1972年最高,但不同沙尘天气发生日数最小值出现的年份不同,最小值为0天,2000年略有上升。沙尘天气呈现春冬季节发生日数多,夏秋发生日数少的季节变化趋势,每年的4月份沙尘天气出现最多,7、8或9月份沙尘天气出现最少。沙尘天气的发生与空气相对湿度、降水量呈现极显著或显著的负相关,与风速、蒸发量呈现极显著或显著的正相关,与气温变化关系不明显。在此基础上,提出了完善监测体系、加强生态环境建设等沙尘天气防治对策。     

A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

Accuracy of wind farm visualisations: The effect of focal length on perceived accuracy

Wind energy has been the fastest growing renewable energy technology for more than a decade. However, the visual impacts of wind farms are still one of the most controversial effects of wind energy development. Photomontage visualisations are frequently used in Visual Impact Assessments² (VIA) to give a sense of scale of the proposed development. Yet visualisations in VIAs are often perceived to underestimate the scale and magnitude of the visual impact of wind turbines. The aim of this multiphase mixed methods study is to explore the perceived accuracy of images that represent the visual impacts of both onshore and offshore wind farms. Field visits and data from a public survey are used to assess the accuracy of visualisations and to examine the effect of camera lens focal length on perception of scale of wind turbines. Results show that panoramic photomontages are perceived as the least accurate, while images taken at 75 mm focal length in full frame format are perceived as the most accurate form of representation of the scale and visual impact of wind turbines. These findings imply that the panoramic visualisation technique, which has been used for decades to predict the scale of wind turbines in VIAs, is ineffective in predicting accurately the visual impact of wind farms, and an alternative predictive technique is needed. For wind farm visualisations the use of 75 mm full frame image format is recommended in order to improve the accuracy, enable better informed decision making and avoid the loss of credibility of visualisations and VIAs.     

Airbone particles dynamics: towards a theoretical approach

Wind-tunnel simulations and field experiments for dust transport by air show that deposition is predominant on the windward side of hills whereas sans deposition is mainly observed on the lee side. That and other aspects such as the existence of several deposition regimes depending on wind intensity call for theoretical explanations. We present some preliminary considerations leading to such a theoretical framework.     

A storm event-based approach to TMDL development

It is vitally important to define the critical condition for a receiving water body in the total maximum daily load (TMDL) development process. One of the major disadvantages of using a continuous simulation approach is that there is no guarantee that the most critical condition will be covered within the subjectively selected representative hydrologic period, which is usually several years depending on the availability of data. Another limitation of the continuous simulation approach, compared to a design storm approach, is the lack of an estimate of the risk involved. Because of the above limitations, a storm event-based critical flow-storm (CFS) approach was previously developed to explicitly address the critical condition as a combination of a prescribed stream flow and a storm event of certain magnitude, both having a certain frequency of occurrence and when combined, would create a critical condition. The CFS approach was tested successfully in a TMDL study for Muddy Creek in Virginia. The present paper reports results of a comparative study on the applicability of the CFS approach in Taiwan. The Dy-yu creek watershed in northern Taiwan differs significantly from Muddy Creek in terms of climate, hydrology, terrain, and other characteristics. Results show that the critical condition for different watersheds might be also different, and that the CFS approach could clearly define that critical condition and should be considered as an alternative method for TMDL development to a continuous simulation approach.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

海洋风电场水下噪声评估与管理研究

总结了海洋风电场建设中水下噪声的主要类型与声学特性,基于国内外水下噪声对海洋生物影响的最新研究成果,分析了海洋风电场噪声对生态环境的可能影响,尤其是近岸海域海洋风电施工期冲击式打桩噪声对海洋生物的影响。在此基础上,参考《海上风电工程环境影响评价技术规范》的相关内容,提出了海洋风电场水下噪声测量与评估方法,以及控制与降低噪声的措施建议。     

Is EIA part of the wind power planning problem?

This research evaluates the importance and effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) within wind farm planning debates, drawing on insights from case studies in Scotland. Despite general public support for renewable energy on the grounds that it is needed to tackle climate change and implement sustainable development, many proposed wind farms encounter significant resistance. The importance of planning issues and (EIA) processes has arguably been overlooked within recent wind farm social acceptability discourse. Through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and textual analysis of EIA documents, the characteristics of EIA are assessed in terms of its perceived purpose and performance. The data show that whilst respondents perceive EIA to be important, they express concerns about bias and about the inability of EIA to address climate change and wind farm decommissioning issues adequately. Furthermore, the research identifies key issues which impede the effectiveness of EIA, and reveals differences between theoretical and practical framings of EIA. The paper questions the assumption that EIA is a universally applicable tool, and argues that its effectiveness should be analysed in the context of specific development sectors. The article concludes by reviewing whether the recently amended EIA Directive (2014/52/EU) could resolve identified problems within national EIA practice.     

基于WRF-NAQPMS的一次沙尘天气预报评估

为提高沙尘天气的预报准确率,利用ECWMF再分析资料和近地面PM₁₀小时质量浓度监测数据,评估WRFNAQPMS模式对2021年3月15—21日甘肃强沙尘过程的预报能力。结果表明,WRF-NAQPMS能够在一定程度上模拟此次污染过程:WRF对“3· 15”天气系统的模拟与实况整体趋势较为一致,随着预报时效延长,气象模拟场移动偏快,导致沙尘预报场发展偏快、沙尘二次传输影响下游时间提前;近地面风向的局地偏差是导致甘肃中东部地区沙尘浓度出现预报误差的主要气象因素。NAQPMS模式对PM₁₀小时质量浓度的模拟随着预报时效增加和离沙源地距离的增大,预报误差逐步增大:在河西地区,沙尘影响时段和起沙浓度的模拟值均接近监测值,其中嘉峪关、酒泉、张掖的PM₁₀小时质量浓度模拟值与监测值相关系数r>0.8;中部地区城市的沙尘影响时段预报略有偏差,且模拟值低于监测值;受复杂下垫面和气象场预报误差影响,省内其他地区沙尘预报结果参考性较低。     

Simulation of Wind Circulation and Pollutant Diffusion Over the Pearl River Delta Region

Changes in urban surface areas and population growth have significantly affected the weather and environment. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are increasing in the Pearl River Delta region. Nitrogen compounds emitted by factories and motor vehicles are the major sources of nitric pollution. To study the impacts of urbanization and the relationship between pollutant diffusion and the atmospheric environment, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale forecast model MM5 (v3.73), which was developed by Penn State University and the National Center of Atmospheric Research, and a mass continuity equation for air pollutants, were used in this study. Two experiments were designed. One experiment (BE) applied horizontal grid resolutions of 27, 9, 3, and 1?km in four nested domains. The other experiment adopted new land-use data (in domain 4) directly retrieved from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to replace the 1980s data of the United States Geological Survey in BE. A 48-h simulation (from 0000?UTC on 21 October to 0000?UTC on 23 October 2008) was conducted, with the first 12?h being the spin-up time and the remaining 36?h being the effective simulation, so as to capture the diurnal features of the thermally induced winds associated with the land–sea breeze and urban heat island circulations. The different results obtained from the two tests for wind circulation and air pollution dispersion and transportation in the Pearl River Delta region were analyzed. The simulated results show that the both experiments can well simulate land–sea breeze circulation and remarkable land–sea breeze evolution, comparing with observation data. The height of the PBL had a significant diurnal cycle. The structure of the wind field can obviously impact the dispersion of the NO _x in three dimensions. Nitrogen oxides mainly diffused along the dominant wind direction (east or southeast wind), therefore the majority of the pollutants accumulated in the northwest region of the fine domain in both simulation experiments. However, it induced the pollutants concentration in an irregular pattern due to the fine-resolution grid spaces and complicated inland wind field in the northwest area of the inner domain. Moreover, increasing the proportion of urban surface caused sensible heat flux increase, latent heat flux decrease and humility reducing relatively in the region of urban surface characteristics apparently. Urbanization will cause pollution accumulated severely over the urban surface.     

区域环境空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则

为响应公众服务和环境管理对环境空气质量预报的迫切需求,中国环境监测总站率先在京津冀区域开展了区域环境空气质量预报测试。结合目前积累的预报经验和国内外相关研究,探索出区域空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则,讨论了客观订正环节中大气扩散条件、污染源排放、物理化学过程和空气质量变化规律的分析方法及系统建立、结果确定、天气控制形势分析和信息表述等基本原则,以期为各地开展环境空气质量预报提供技术参考。     

Integrating ecosystem services into environmental impact assessment: An analytic–deliberative approach

Analytic–deliberative techniques have been suggested as a promising approach to ecosystem service (ES) valuation but are still at an experimental stage. This paper contributes to the development of ES valuation in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedure by introducing an analytic–deliberative approach to assessing restoration options for a regulated river in Finland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with a value-focused approach was applied and compared with a desktop application of the ES-focused MCDA approach. We found out that the concept of ES could bring added value to the assessment process by: 1) enabling the framing and valuing especially of provisioning services — final ecosystem services, such as salmon catch in a more understandable way for the stakeholders, and 2) taking into account ecosystem processes and supporting services more precisely. However, some potential dangers of using the ES-based approach could include ES's appearing as a distant mode of thinking to affected groups and other stakeholders, and neglect of the trade-offs between ES and other relevant value and impact categories. Thus, although the ES framework is promising, it should not form a rigid ‘checklist’ way of making assessments but should rather be used to widen perspectives about potential issues in linking ecosystem properties to human benefits and values. It is argued that by combining the ES framework with the interactive MCDA approach, we can form a comprehensive and integrated approach to incorporating ESs into EIA.