公路隧道火灾事故调研与对策分析

通过调研国内外近60年来,有代表性的33起公路隧道火灾事故,对公路隧道火灾事故起因、特点及危害进行了详细分析,结合国外公路隧道火灾安全措施以及防火安全评估经验,提出几点降低公路隧道火灾事故风险,减少事故危害的对策与建议。以期为公路隧道规划、设计以及建设运营等工作提供有益的参考。     

CNG cylinder burst in a bus during gas filling – Lesson learned

An accident leading to bursting of a compressed natural gas (CNG) cylinder fitted to a passenger bus in India resulted one person died and four persons injured. This paper presents the incident, the human factor involved, safety issues and lesson learned.     

Analysis and assessment of the Qingdao crude oil vapor explosion accident: Lessons learnt

A devastating crude oil vapor explosion accident, which killed 62 people and injured 136, occurred on November 22, 2013. It was one of the most disastrous vapor cloud explosion accidents that happened in Qingdao's storm drains in China. It was noted that blast overpressure and flying debris were the main causes of human deaths, personal injuries and structure damages. Two months after the accident, it was reported that there were three contentious issues in the investigation report. First issue was the discrepancy between the temperature of the crude oil vapor explosive limits which were measured by the investigation panel and the temperature reported by the local fire department. Second issue was the contradiction between the upper explosive limit and vapor pressure of the crude oil vapor. The last issue was the location of the ignition source which led to the explosion.In the present study some specific features of this accident and various causes led to the explosion, high casualties and severe damages were analyzed. Three contentious issues in the official investigation report were investigated and tested in detail. The first element tested was the explosive limits and limiting oxygen concentration of the crude oil vapor at different temperatures. Based on theoretical analysis and field investigations, the last two elements in the report were analyzed from multiple perspectives. Based on the TNO Multi-Energy model and PROBIT equations, damage probability of affected people at the leaking site was also estimated. The investigation concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems. Key steps were explicitly discussed for improving the hazard identification and risk assessment of similar accidents in the future.     

Economic valuation of damages originated by major accidents in port areas

Due to special features of ports – variety of activities: storage and loading/unloading of hazardous materials; circulation of ships, lorries and trains; proximity to urban zones; etc. – major accidents can be associated with severe damages. The cost of such accidents must be known to allow for compensation to people and companies. A procedure is presented to estimate the cost of damages suffered by people, equipment and environment. Criteria to assess the cost of damage to people – a controversial issue – are discussed, establishing a method to predict the number of people killed, injured and evacuated. Economic compensation is proposed. Environmental damages are also considered. These include potential damage to the atmosphere, soil, water and fauna. Estimates of the cost of the equipment and buildings affected by the accident are proposed. Finally, an assessment of the loss of profits due to activity breakdown and indirect costs is analysed. The methodology presented can easily be extended to general, inland process and storage sites.     

Work-related injuries of educational support staff in schools

This study aims to describe the characteristics of occupational injuries to educational support staff (service worker) in schools. In this research, 803 injured workers registered in 2015 were analyzed in terms of their gender, age, work experience, school type, work type, accident type, agency of accident, nature of injury and injured part of the body for each occupation. The workers were classified into after-school instructor, custodian and cooking staff. Accidents occurred mainly due to slips (35.6%) on floor/stair or contact with high temperature (18.1%). Also, the workers mostly fractured (41.2%) or had burns (19.3%) on their leg/foot (37.1%) or arm/hand/finger (29.8%). The results showed the difference in characteristics and injury pattern of injured persons for each occupation type, addressing the need for customized preventative measures for each situation. The results of this study can be a baseline in devising policies and guidelines for preventing accidents of service workers in schools.     

建筑企业专职安全管理人员现状调查与分析

建筑业是我国重要的支柱产业之一，近年来，建筑施工安全事故频频发生，影响了我国建筑业的发展和行业形象。建筑施工企业专职安全管理人员素质的高低直接关系到建筑安全生产目标的实现，因此，笔者5年来通过对三省一市多家建筑施工企业专职安全管理人员基本情况的调查和分析，发现建筑施工企业专职安全管理人员队伍在专业构成、学历结构、职称结构和人员数量等诸多方面存在的问题，并剖析了问题产生的原因，其目的在于提醒建筑企业负责人加强专职安全管理人员队伍建设，避免人为因素导致建筑安全事故的发生。     

农民工工伤保险先行赔付机制的可行性研究

由于我国现行工伤保险赔付机制的不完善,致使农民工在出现工伤之后由于企业没有缴费而得不到救助。为改变这种状况,现在政府推行的扩大工伤缴费覆盖面和简化工伤受理补偿的程序,固然能够取得一些成效,而配套实行先行赔付的机制,会更为便于操作和更为直接有效。这种机制的实质是,克服传统行政管理的不足,真正运用社会化的方式,实现工伤员工享受工伤补偿的普惠性,促使用人单位、政府和司法有关部门能够把工伤社会保障的责任切实承担起来。     

Road casualties and enforcement: distributional assumptions of serially correlated count data

OBJECTIVE: Road safety data are often in the form of counts and usually temporally correlated. The objective of this research is to investigate the distributional assumptions of road safety data in the presence of temporal correlation. METHODS: Using the generalized linear model framework, four distributional assumptions are considered: normal, Poisson, quasi-Poisson and negative binomial, and appropriate models are estimated. Monthly casualty and police enforcement data from Greece for a period of six years (January 1998-December 2003) have been used. The developed models include sinusoidal latent terms to capture the temporal serial correlation of observations. Several statistical goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests have been performed for the results of the estimated models, and the predictive capabilities of the models are investigated. RESULTS: The residuals of the quasi-Poisson and negative binomial models do not show any serial correlation. The signs of the estimated coefficients for all models are consistent and intuitive. In particular, a negative coefficient value for the number of breath alcohol controls indicates that the number of persons killed and seriously injured decreases as the intensity of breath alcohol controls increases. The Poisson model fails to capture the overdispersion in the data, thus underestimating the standard errors of the estimated coefficients. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the quasi-Poisson and negative binomial outperform the normal and Poisson models in this application. The findings of this research demonstrate a clear link between the intensification of police enforcement and the reduction of traffic accident casualties. In particular, an increase in the number of breath alcohol controls in Greece after 1998 contributed to a reduction in the number of persons killed and seriously injured from traffic accidents.     

高速公路隧道群交通事故风险致因分析

通过对高速公路隧道群特殊地理环境所造成的交通事故后果风险与救援时间的相关分析,提出隧道群交通事故风险致因模型,该模型将隧道群交通事故风险划分3个风险阶段,即初始事故风险、事故发展风险、最终事故风险,不同阶段的风险值受人的因素、车辆因素、隧道群环境因素和防灾救援能力大小的影响而改变。通过对隧道群的风险因素分析,认为隧道群在两毗邻隧道间将可能产生烟雾风险,驾驶人员视觉快速转换的照明风险,以及交通事故防灾控制风险;同时统计的隧道群防灾救援时间概率分布表明,救援队伍能在一定时间内快速到达事故现场,并对较晚到达事故现场救援情况,基于风险分析而提出相应的防范对策和措施。     

高危工艺热爆炸事故鉴定中的模拟验证方法研究

根据高危工艺热爆炸事故反应速度快、爆炸威力强、物证破坏严重的特点,提出3类适合该类事故分析鉴定的模拟验证法:数学模型验证法、实测模拟验证法及热分析仪器实验验证法。通过对3种模拟验证法的由来、定义及操作程序的研讨,同时对3种方法的用药量、结果可信度、优点及缺点进行比较,从而总结出3类方法在不同事故背景、物证收集情况及前期推断基础下的适用范围。最后,通过对一起高危工艺热爆炸事故的调查鉴定,探讨热分析仪器实验验证法在调查鉴定中的应用,并给出模拟验证方法的选用技巧及运行步骤,为事故鉴定工作提供切实可用的科学参考。     

广东科龙集团无氟生产线预混站燃烧爆炸风险分析

广东科龙集团无氟生产线中的预混站是使用环戊烷危险物品配制发泡剂的重大危险源,燃烧爆炸事故风险较大。笔者针对该生产场所重大危险源,应用事故树分析方法,编制了预混站的燃烧爆炸事故树,计算出事故能量及伤害后果。通过对事故树的定性和定量分析,得出事故树的最小割集和最小径集,判定事故发生的可能途径,选定预防事故发生的最佳方案。针对导致事故发生的可能原因组合,制定有效的安全技术措施和管理制度,为国内同类企业预防该类事故提供依据。     

对无伤害事故管理的探讨

无伤害事故由于没有造成伤害,往往被人们所忽视。事实上,事故的后果是具有随机性的,因此,在安全管理中,应重视对无伤害事故的管理,做好无伤害事故的收集、调查、分析、统计、处理和研究,从中找出事故规律,以采取防范措施,达到预防伤害事故发生的目的。     

Occupational deaths and injuries by the types of street cleaning process

This study aims to obtain an overall picture of occupational injuries by the types of street cleaning process. Three hundred and fifty-four injured persons were analyzed in terms of the company size and details of the injured persons and accidents. Results show that ‘roadway cleaning’ was the most common type of cleaning process for injuries, followed by ‘sidewalk cleaning,’ ‘going/returning to work by bike’ and ‘lifting/carrying.’ The findings also show that most accidents which occur when ‘going/returning to work by bike’ are in the form of traffic accidents, while in other processes they happen most often in the form of slips. Most of the accidents related to ‘lifting/carrying’ affected workers in their 50s or younger while other processes had a large portion of injured persons in their 50s or older. The findings of this study can be used as baseline data for preventative policies.     

高速公路交通事故分析及预防对策研究

利用济青高速公路 1998～ 1999年发生的 10 85起交通事故数据 ,在资料收集、处理和统计分析的基础上 ,对影响高速公路交通事故的人、车辆、道路环境、天气和交通量等主要因素进行了分析 ,并与国外的统计结果进行对比研究 ,预测出随着高速公路交通量的增长 ,事故率将会增加。此外 ,笔者针对影响高速公路事故因素提出了主动性、被动性预防对策 ,这些对策的实施将会减少高速公路事故的发生     

游艺机的安全及管理对策探讨

游艺机和游乐设施将休闲、娱乐和消费融为一体，专门用来满足人们的特殊需要，其涉及人的安全，具有很高的风险，本用安全系统的理念和思维方法，从人、机和人一机关系三要素入手，分析游艺机的事故特点和发展原因，对游艺机的安全管理问题提出了对策和建议。     

道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测

根据福建省2000 -2010年交通事故相关指标,采用统计图表分析法进行交通事故发展趋势分析与安全水平比较研究,结果表明交通事故各项绝对指标总体呈下降趋势,但从万车死亡率、受伤人数与死亡人数比及交通事故死亡人数占各类事故死亡人数比重等相对指标看,交通安全总体水平偏低,交通事故后果比较严重.对交通事故死亡人数与GDP、机动车保有量、公路通车里程、人口数四项影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析,分析得出四个影响因素总体对交通事故死亡人数的线性影响是显著的,采取向后筛选策略线性回归分析得出,死亡人数与GDP的线性关系是显著的,根据回归结果建立了交通事故的预测模型.     

Factors affecting accident severity inside and outside urban areas in Greece

Objectives: This research aims to identify and analyze the factors affecting accident severity through a macroscopic analysis, with a focus on the comparison between inside and outside urban areas. Disaggregate road accident data for Greece for the year 2008 were used. Methods: Two models were developed, one for inside and one for outside urban areas. Because the dependent variable had 2 categories, killed/severely injured (KSI) and slightly injured (SI), the binary logistic regression analysis was selected. Furthermore, this research aims to estimate the probability of fatality/severe injury versus slight injury as well as to calculate the odds ratios (relative probabilities) for various road accident configurations. The Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic and other diagnostic tests were conducted in order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model. Results: From the application of the models, it appears that inside urban areas 3 types of collisions (sideswipe, rear-end, with fixed object/parked car), as well as involvement of motorcycles, bicycles, buses, 2 age groups (18-30 and older than 60?years old), time of accident, and location of the accident, seem to affect accident severity. Outside urban areas, 4 types of collisions (head-on, rear-end, side, sideswipe), weather conditions, time of accident, one age group (older than 60?years old), and involvement of motorcycles and buses were found to be significant. Conclusions: Factors affecting road accident severity only inside urban areas include young driver age, bicycles, intersections, and collision with fixed objects, whereas factors affecting severity only outside urban areas are weather conditions and head-on and side collisions, demonstrating the particular road users and traffic situations that should be focused on for road safety interventions for the 2 different types of networks (inside and outside urban areas). The methodology and the results of this research may provide a promising tool to prioritize programs and measures to improve road safety in Greece and worldwide.     

一起工伤事故的分析与预防

叙述了工作面减速机液力耦合器伤人经过 ,分析了事故各方面的原因 ,并制定了预防措施 ,具有普遍性和典型性。     

Small enterprise owners’ accident causation attribution and prevention

Small enterprises have difficulty in the systematic prevention of accidents. This study explores how owners of small enterprises attribute accident causation and what they learn about accident prevention after an accident. Interviews were carried out with owners of 22 small (1–19 employees) construction and metal industry enterprises that recently had reported an accident with an expected injury absence of over two weeks. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. The results reveal that after a relatively serious accident the owners predominantly attribute the incident to unforeseeable circumstances, and secondarily to worker faults. A possible explanation is both self- and group-defensive attributions in order to avoid responsibility and blame. The reciprocal and close social relations between owners and workers make it difficult for the owners to be solely responsible for the accident. The study presents a paradox: learning from the accidents seems to be negative as the owners need to abstain from accident prevention in order to maintain that accidents are unforeseeable, and the injured worker returns to work under the same unsafe conditions as before the accident. The study indicates that efforts to improve accident prevention in small enterprises need to find ways to avoid defensive attribution in order to attain successful outcomes.